DrJack's WINDIP Upper-Air Wind Forecast for UKIAH on THU 09/23 Apr 8: Missing data has been a frequent problem lately particularly for the AVN model (this is a NWS problem) EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST WITH WILLIAMS WAVE PARAMETERS - expect to under-predict wave ------ WS,WD,U(kt) SITE=kuki RAOB=kuki RidgePerp.=270 Run:09/23@17:32Z-17:32Z RUC : 00=09/23:15Z 03=09/23:18Z 06=09/23:21Z 09=09/24: 0Z 12=09/24: 3Z 300mb: 21 300 18 15 324 9 9 334 4 10 033 -5 12 068 -11 850mb: 3 121 -3 1 189 0 1 334 0 5 312 4 6 355 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETA : 00=09/23:12Z 12=09/24: 0Z 24=09/24:12Z 36=09/25: 0Z 48=09/25:12Z 300mb: 25 301 22 11 043 -7 15 134 -11 22 248 20 45 268 45 850mb: 7 067 -6 1 304 1 4 147 -2 4 177 -0 4 223 3 NGM : 00=09/23:12Z 12=09/24: 0Z 24=09/24:12Z 36=09/25: 0Z 48=09/25:12Z 300mb: 24 294 22 8 033 -4 5 176 -0 20 262 20 39 273 39 850mb: 6 066 -5 1 133 -1 6 162 -2 2 176 -0 2 288 2 AVN : 00=09/23:12Z 12=09/24: 0Z 24=09/24:12Z 36=09/25: 0Z 48=09/25:12Z 60=09/26: 0Z 72=09/26:12Z 300mb: 23 297 20 9 060 -8 22 123 -18 15 245 14 39 269 39 47 263 47 38 273 38 850mb: 5 002 -0 1 133 -1 6 169 -1 6 180 -0 7 203 3 4 248 4 2 273 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRF : 96=09/27: 0Z 120=09/28: 0Z 144=09/29: 0Z 168=09/30: 0Z 192=10/01: 0Z 216=10/02: 0Z 240=10/03: 0Z 300mb: 13 290 12 9 139 -6 12 023 -5 20 346 5 15 172 -2 25 086 -25 20 339 7 850mb: 1 333 0 1 125 -1 7 336 3 5 310 4 9 289 9 5 326 3 8 307 6 ------ The criterion "mt. wave" windspeeds used for this site are: To have a mt. wave somewhere (indicated by "+" marks) (1) windspeed of 65 kt at 300 mb (approx. 31,000 ft) (2) windspeed of 20 kt at "ridgetop" level of 850 mb (approx. 5,000 ft) To have a mt. wave at designated ridge (indicated by "*" marks) (1) perpendicular wind of 46 kt at 300 mb (approx. 31,000 ft) (2) perpendicular wind of 14 kt at "ridgetop" level of 850 mb (approx. 5,000 ft) These criteria based upon those of Doug Armstrong and Peter Kelly For a description of the forecast format and forecasts for other locations, see: http://www.drjack.net/WINDIP/ Please recognize that the utilized mt. wave criterion is simplistic while mt. wave behavior can be complex, so the simple yes/no program predictions cannot be expected to cover all mt. wave occurrences.