DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 49.1 - - 55.5 - - 55.2 - - 46.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 78 - - 87 - - -12 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1583 - - 2775 - - 147 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1275 - - 2658 - - 1276 - - 1275 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3020 - - 4212 - - 1584 - - 1293 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1035 - - 1020 - - 3521 - - 1020 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 212 - - 270 - - 44 - - 7 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 6 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 10 - - 9 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 043 - - 044 - - 032 - - 092 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 9 - - 10 - - 1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3430 - - -3225 - - -4800 - - -2893 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6450 - - 7437 - - 6384 - - 4186 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -16986 - - -15790 - - -16163 - - -16120 ODpotential blCL - - - 20006 - - 20002 - - 17747 - - 17413 blCL maxRH - - - 42 - - 40 - - 41 - - 43 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 49.1 - - 55.5 - - 55.2 - - 46.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 26.0 - - 28.0 - - 32.4 - - 33.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 48.5 - - 54.8 - - 55.8 - - 49.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 24.8 - - 26.8 - - 31.3 - - 32.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 78 - - 87 - - -12 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1583 - - 2775 - - 147 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97713 4 260 13 257 18 256 18 261 97713 90424 16 247 13 247 23 267 12 250 90424 84797 15 219 14 253 20 246 9 269 84797 80119 11 211 13 244 16 239 13 263 80119 76096 7 274 8 170 15 248 11 249 76096 72541 8 296 2 177 11 223 10 265 72541 69330 9 305 10 258 9 224 13 238 69330 66376 11 302 10 255 9 269 9 264 66376 63637 18 284 16 249 19 262 19 276 63637 60999 17 246 12 249 15 250 15 260 60999 58255 16 284 21 283 18 288 17 293 58255 55424 28 273 28 263 22 272 19 284 55424 52719 23 279 20 260 15 257 18 319 52719 50264 26 301 23 296 25 311 32 310 50264 48054 29 300 30 300 30 307 33 299 48054 46050 30 306 28 311 23 314 20 328 46050 44219 33 312 28 331 21 348 23 010 44219 42531 25 321 34 348 35 360 36 014 42531 40964 26 354 38 349 40 357 41 011 40964 39503 34 006 38 355 37 002 36 014 39503 38132 38 007 38 000 36 011 32 023 38132 36808 37 005 37 001 39 019 31 029 36808 35459 35 007 35 358 38 015 30 019 35459 34055 37 007 35 356 38 003 31 009 34055 32597 39 004 37 359 39 355 30 007 32597 31069 39 002 38 001 39 358 31 006 31069 29462 37 001 34 001 34 003 32 009 29462 27780 37 359 31 354 28 003 27 015 27780 26020 37 355 31 344 26 353 21 012 26020 24184 36 352 32 339 28 345 22 006 24184 22271 34 352 31 341 29 344 23 004 22271 20274 32 356 27 346 28 343 23 359 20274 18188 27 003 22 356 24 345 22 359 18188 16058 24 006 18 005 19 355 21 005 16058 14004 22 006 16 009 17 013 18 015 14004 12139 23 008 19 018 19 034 18 035 12139 10487 24 014 23 029 23 045 19 049 10487 9028 25 025 25 036 25 049 20 054 9028 7740 25 039 25 040 26 049 20 057 7740 6608 25 049 23 044 24 048 20 058 6608 5613 25 056 21 050 19 046 18 056 5613 4743 24 059 16*055 12 040 14 046 4743 3978 23 058 10*048 9 037 11 032 3978 3296 19*056 9 046 9 037 9 033 3296 2695 13*049 9 045 8 036 8 049 2695 2193 11 044 9 043 8 035 9 067 2193 1808 10 042 8 042 7*033 9 080 1808 1544 10 040 7 040 7*033 8 085 1544 1383 9 039 7 038 6 032 6*088 1383 1292 7 036 6 037 4 030 4*092 1292 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography