DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/14 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1001z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 42.2 - - 44.0 - - 43.3 - - 36.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 125 - - 173 - - 16 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3595 - - 4293 - - 3774 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3371 - - 4070 - - 1275 - - 1275 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5032 - - 5730 - - 5211 - - 1292 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1942 - - 1378 - - 1628 - - 3397 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 314 - - 371 - - 167 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 21 - - 20 - - 17 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 320 - - 301 - - 306 - - 251 Direction Wind Shear - - - 12 - - 8 - - 9 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 14 - - 15 - - 14 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 70 - - 268 - - -149 - - -2122 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4962 - - 5462 - - 5361 - - 3414 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -597 - - -577 - - -1720 - - -9983 ODpotential blCL - - - 5629 - - 6307 - - 6931 - - 11275 blCL maxRH - - - 85 - - 86 - - 84 - - 85 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 42.2 - - 44.0 - - 43.3 - - 36.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 25.0 - - 24.6 - - 24.5 - - 26.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 41.6 - - 43.2 - - 43.4 - - 38.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 24.4 - - 23.9 - - 23.8 - - 25.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 125 - - 173 - - 16 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3595 - - 4293 - - 3774 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 39 - - 42 - - 35 - - 40 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96619 52 237 67 244 61 256 59 257 96619 89310 48 242 44 239 47 249 44 257 89310 83711 33 245 27 235 33 236 33 246 83711 79094 19 254 18 216 30 217 29 235 79094 75115 19 253 14 236 21 230 21 234 75115 71593 27 237 20 238 18 230 17 248 71593 68400 15 239 18 238 14 239 13 228 68400 65442 16 257 27 243 26 260 25 274 65442 62698 21 258 27 232 34 243 33 260 62698 60041 27 261 26 244 37 219 35 247 60041 57247 31 265 29 252 34 241 37 248 57247 54327 39 268 40 260 44 261 45 256 54327 51528 48 264 53 260 58 264 53 257 51528 49007 51 265 61 258 65 259 62 259 49007 46747 60 268 63 258 65 256 69 257 46747 44690 68 263 65 260 65 258 70 255 44690 42805 72 258 67 260 65 259 69 255 42805 41067 72 257 67 262 62 261 68 253 41067 39450 71 259 68 264 64 264 65 253 39450 37941 72 261 72 265 66 263 63 257 37941 36531 68 262 72 264 63 264 64 260 36531 35182 60 267 68 264 60 268 59 264 35182 33828 57 269 63 267 56 273 58 267 33828 32439 49 271 57 269 52 278 52 263 32439 31016 41 276 46 274 45 281 37 267 31016 29539 34 293 33 293 35 290 30 278 29539 27997 30 312 28 323 29 307 30 297 27997 26393 29 338 32 340 30 319 35 307 26393 24724 32 354 36 342 34 328 38 310 24724 22988 34 360 35 342 35 332 40 308 22988 21187 36 358 34 342 34 332 40 307 21187 19311 35 353 34 341 33 327 39 308 19311 17353 31 346 33 340 31 324 37 309 17353 15350 25 343 31 333 29 328 35 309 15350 13417 20 332 26 321 28 326 31 309 13417 11657 18 310 22 302 25 317 27 311 11657 10093 20 318 19 306 22 312 22 317 10093 8709 29 331 21 322 20 325 20 325 8709 7488 35 331 23 321 21 330 22 332 7488 6413 34 329 21*307 20 320 25 330 6413 5466 28*326 21*303 19*310 27 319 5466 4634 24*322 21 302 19*308 27 307 4634 3899 23 320 21 302 18 307 26 300 3899 3240 22 320 21 301 18 306 24 298 3240 2657 21 320 20 301 18 306 21 293 2657 2170 20 320 20 300 18 305 18 288 2170 1795 19 320 19 300 17 305 15 283 1795 1537 18 320 18 300 16 304 12 274 1537 1380 16 320 16 300 14 305 9*266 1380 1291 12 320 13 300 10 304 4*251 1291 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography