DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 04/18 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0736z - - 0738z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1555z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.8 - - 66.9 - - 73.8 - - 71.5 - - 70.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - 119 - - 147 - - 12 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 954 - - 1738 - - 1160 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 556 - - 557 - - 1327 - - 558 - - 558 Hcrit BL Top 574 - - 1549 - - 2333 - - 1755 - - 575 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 395 - - 437 - - 2888 - - 1840 - - 1461 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 200 - - 264 - - 118 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 15 - - 13 - - 11 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 107 - - 154 - - 199 - - 260 - - 164 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 9 - - 9 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 3 - - -5 - - 9 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1165 - - -2323 - - 263 - - 664 - - -346 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1739 - - 3872 - - 2070 - - 1091 - - 921 sfcLCL ODpotential -8970 - - -7669 - - -560 - - 109 - - -3116 ODpotential blCL 9544 - - 9218 - - 2893 - - 1646 - - 3691 blCL maxRH 76 - - 99 - - 90 - - 100 - - 87 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 1390 - - 1810 - - 2080 - - 1870 CAPE Temp@2m 53.8 - - 66.9 - - 73.8 - - 71.5 - - 70.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.3 - - 52.1 - - 66.4 - - 68.2 - - 67.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.7 - - 66.2 - - 73.0 - - 71.5 - - 71.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 48.1 - - 51.5 - - 65.6 - - 67.5 - - 67.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - 119 - - 147 - - 12 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 954 - - 1738 - - 1160 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 4 - - 98 - - 59 - - 101 - - 46 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 8 - - 13 - - 15 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97634 10 254 18 257 20 254 20 252 23 256 97634 90303 3 292 5 219 16 237 13 239 8 249 90303 84661 3 280 3 186 7 225 8 230 6 246 84661 79966 1 314 3 257 7 138 8 212 10 284 79966 75934 3 254 2 218 8 139 9 192 7 282 75934 72383 1 251 2 125 1 285 7 166 7 256 72383 69154 5 243 7 263 12 277 5 005 4 195 69154 66156 14 250 13 237 24 259 21 291 18 291 66156 63383 13 256 17 242 22 248 26 264 20 275 63383 60714 20 274 16 267 20 274 26 278 25 283 60714 57938 42 270 43 280 43 276 43 277 41 274 57938 55065 52 265 50 263 50 268 51 267 47 276 55065 52313 55 275 47 263 53 268 52 264 51 274 52313 49823 65 279 57 273 57 276 55 266 54 269 49823 47579 66 275 70 274 61 276 62 270 60 264 47579 45543 63 272 72 268 65 271 69 272 69 264 45543 43691 62 275 67 267 66 265 73 271 74 263 43691 42005 63 277 66 272 65 263 73 268 72 259 42005 40456 64 278 66 274 63 263 72 265 70 254 40456 39010 67 276 67 274 63 265 71 264 68 252 39010 37646 68 275 68 271 61 264 71 263 68 252 37646 36326 67 274 66 270 59 262 67 262 68 251 36326 34981 64 273 62 273 57 260 57 261 67 250 34981 33584 60 271 59 271 54 259 42 260 63 247 33584 32136 57 271 55 263 50 259 35 259 54 238 32136 30618 50 271 47 260 47 258 36 256 52 236 30618 29017 38 267 44 259 44 256 33 247 54 240 29017 27332 29 257 44 255 38 254 31 240 51 243 27332 25565 24 256 43 251 35 256 34 258 46 247 25565 23719 26 262 42 251 36 257 35 262 43 252 23719 21800 37 267 40 254 39 254 34 254 42 258 21800 19801 39 265 37 252 43 250 33 242 37 268 19801 17721 36 257 34 253 37 234 34 234 44 276 17721 15604 34 254 31 252 30 222 36 218 45 280 15604 13566 30 255 28 245 28 212 37 213 33 272 13566 11714 30 248 29 231 30 210 33 217 26 260 11714 10070 28 241 31 232 33 211 26 222 32 259 10070 8607 25 229 30 224 35 211 22 227 37 257 8607 7302 26 218 31 213 32 211 19 230 32 243 7302 6141 24 213 33 202 31 213 17 232 27 226 6141 5111 23 192 29 196 30 212 15 232 25 210 5111 4203 25 173 27 193 29 211 14 234 25 198 4203 3401 24 169 27 191 28 210 13 238 25 191 3401 2684 23 160 27 185 23*207 13 243 24 187 2684 2051 25 138 25*170 18*203 13*245 23 184 2051 1523 29 125 20*160 14 200 13*254 21 177 1523 1118 28 120 16 153 12 197 12 260 18 170 1118 840 18 111 15 152 11 197 11 263 15 166 840 671 16*110 13 152 10 196 10 264 13*165 671 574 8*107 11 151 9 195 8 266 8*164 574 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography