DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/25 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.0 - - 55.8 - - 59.1 - - 57.3 - - 51.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - 63 - - 47 - - -3 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1671 - - 2951 - - 1209 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 5856 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6499 - - 7779 - - 6037 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1791 - - 3057 - - 3798 - - 4077 - - 2532 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 217 - - 246 - - 52 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 35 - - 41 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 035 - - 148 - - 285 - - 059 - - 038 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 0 - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - -9 - - -19 - - -5 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1550 - - 461 - - 1037 - - 702 - - -983 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5924 - - 6038 - - 6743 - - 5335 - - 5357 sfcLCL ODpotential -5889 - - -2412 - - -2131 - - -3452 - - -5066 ODpotential blCL 10263 - - 8911 - - 9910 - - 9489 - - 9440 blCL maxRH 60 - - 68 - - 61 - - 60 - - 57 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 70 - - 110 - - 110 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.0 - - 55.8 - - 59.1 - - 57.3 - - 51.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.4 - - 44.5 - - 44.7 - - 48.9 - - 43.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 51.3 - - 56.3 - - 59.7 - - 59.4 - - 57.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.3 - - 43.3 - - 43.4 - - 47.7 - - 42.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - 63 - - 47 - - -3 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1671 - - 2951 - - 1209 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97400 14 243 22 259 29 268 29 265 23 292 97400 90061 9 215 11 248 15 262 14 264 16 274 90061 84458 5 217 7 235 9 244 8 258 9 274 84458 79817 9 265 3 255 5 226 4 246 6 280 79817 75832 8 275 1 051 2 242 3 083 6 287 75832 72322 4 315 2 127 3 273 5 037 2 019 72322 69135 3 333 2 100 2 253 4 306 3 344 69135 66197 6 323 3 050 2 053 3 229 4 236 66197 63465 11 266 4 177 2 207 5 202 8 231 63465 60819 14 245 10 216 7 218 8 206 11 241 60819 58050 14 250 15 212 14 221 13 232 21 246 58050 55167 19 227 19 206 22 214 29 227 30 222 55167 52412 18 225 20 209 24 204 29 212 21 225 52412 49918 24 242 21 232 16 230 19 212 19 233 49918 47665 32 236 26 241 20 237 19 227 25 228 47665 45621 35 226 27 229 22 232 23 232 30 231 45621 43761 28 216 26 218 26 232 27 240 32 237 43761 42066 21 213 23 234 27 249 29 262 32 242 42066 40513 19 221 23 247 29 270 38 272 28 263 40513 39073 19 271 28 274 37 280 40 266 29 265 39073 37725 33 268 31 269 39 280 31 277 25 269 37725 36430 33 254 30 280 39 283 32 295 26 287 36430 35124 22 259 30 296 39 295 34 294 29 285 35124 33781 20 263 32 302 40 308 35 296 32 286 33781 32403 19 270 33 314 43 315 35 301 33 290 32403 30978 18 288 37 323 45 322 36 305 33 296 30978 29496 18 303 36 320 48 324 36 309 31 303 29496 27960 16 296 33 322 50 329 35 316 30 311 27960 26372 14 274 32 324 49 332 35 320 29 323 26372 24733 13 269 32 327 42 329 35 323 28 329 24733 23043 11 289 28 326 33 323 34 327 25 329 23043 21299 9 310 22 320 27 318 33 326 23 323 21299 19494 9 327 18 320 24 314 32 323 23 324 19494 17663 8 321 13 314 19 314 25 325 22 333 17663 15904 7 293 9 302 13 307 19 326 19 338 15904 14306 8 281 8 303 9 303 14 323 14 334 14306 12884 9 285 7 307 6 309 8 328 10 322 12884 11616 9 292 6 307 4 329 6 356 5 305 11616 10482 8 295 6 297 4 341 5 015 1 021 10482 9466 6 297 5 286 3 320 3 354 2 064 9466 8555 5 288 4 272 3*302 4 330 3 027 8555 7743 4 270 3 251 3*299 4 317 3 005 7743 7017 2 247 2*221 2 297 3 314 3 356 7017 6359 1 209 1*173 1 303 3*329 3 011 6359 5771 1 055 1 124 1 272 2*016 3 032 5771 5276 3 073 1 132 0 234 2 050 3 048 5276 4893 4 074 1 149 1 202 2 068 4 055 4893 4627 5 058 1 161 1 194 2 076 5 051 4627 4466 5*039 1 168 1 189 2 078 5*043 4466 4373 4*032 1 168 1 183 2 079 5*035 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography