DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/06 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 77.3 - - 79.3 - - 82.6 - - 74.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 263 - - 187 - - 30 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2991 - - 2518 - - 4542 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 6709 - - 6231 - - 4358 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top - - - 7819 - - 7346 - - 9370 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3050 - - 3802 - - 5034 - - 6023 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 387 - - 326 - - 218 - - 3 W* B/S - - - 45 - - 18 - - 14 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 200 - - 195 - - 236 - - 063 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 6 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -12 - - -12 - - -11 - - -9 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1627 - - -3707 - - -3425 - - -6833 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9446 - - 11054 - - 12795 - - 11208 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5233 - - -7231 - - -5746 - - -10507 ODpotential blCL - - - 13052 - - 14577 - - 15116 - - 14882 blCL maxRH - - - 87 - - 91 - - 86 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 80 - - 10 - - 10 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 77.3 - - 79.3 - - 82.6 - - 74.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 50.9 - - 45.9 - - 41.5 - - 40.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 76.5 - - 78.8 - - 83.3 - - 79.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 50.4 - - 45.5 - - 41.1 - - 40.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 263 - - 187 - - 30 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2991 - - 2518 - - 4542 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 49 - - 64 - - 43 - - 34 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98010 5 282 15 236 17 256 15 303 98010 90650 9 237 12 207 13 269 9 292 90650 84982 4 279 7 214 8 272 8 280 84982 80285 2 077 6 233 4 316 4 302 80285 76262 4 075 0 160 6 051 5 042 76262 72730 8 048 9 094 10 078 9 055 72730 69545 8 059 11 054 11 058 14 036 69545 66630 10 078 9 052 8 061 13 025 66630 63948 11 041 14 044 13 061 9 057 63948 61361 9 018 13 003 12 008 7 011 61361 58681 17 352 17 338 14 338 12 342 58681 55911 37 327 30 323 28 325 24 322 55911 53260 45 312 41 317 44 319 39 315 53260 50868 53 316 50 315 56 318 53 315 50868 48708 61 314 54 315 60 314 59 314 48708 46728 66 316 60 315 61 312 59 315 46728 44897 71 315 64 314 62 312 60 315 44897 43192 72 314 65 313 64 311 60 316 43192 41592 69 314 63 312 61 311 58 314 41592 40085 66 316 59 312 56 310 54 312 40085 38667 62 313 56 311 52 310 51 311 38667 37308 59 308 55 309 51 309 50 310 37308 35942 58 304 53 309 49 310 51 310 35942 34541 55 302 52 309 47 312 52 311 34541 33109 54 303 51 310 46 314 50 313 33109 31633 52 304 51 311 46 316 47 315 31633 30102 47 302 52 312 48 316 46 316 30102 28515 39 293 48 310 50 314 46 317 28515 26877 36 287 39 297 46 308 42 314 26877 25197 31 285 37 285 40 298 37 310 25197 23474 26 283 32 288 35 294 32 308 23474 21699 18 270 24 282 26 295 25 313 21699 19868 9 225 19 269 17 288 15 314 19868 18017 7 213 12 242 10 277 8 298 18017 16241 5 254 6 255 6 285 3 283 16241 14624 7 293 6 313 5 008 3 050 14624 13178 3 332 7 346 9 043 6 043 13178 11881 3 071 6 025 9 048 5 050 11881 10715 6 097 9 074 8 051 4 040 10715 9665 8 098 10 077 6*053 3 015 9665 8722 7 097 9 081 3*047 3 349 8722 7880 5*095 7*092 1 287 4 333 7880 7126 2*098 4*114 3 244 3 323 7126 6442 1 134 2 165 4 236 2 322 6442 5830 1 200 4 208 4 233 0 027 5830 5315 2 212 4 211 5 230 1 107 5315 4916 3 215 4 211 5 229 3 104 4916 4640 3 215 4 211 5 228 4 085 4640 4471 3 215 4 209 5 229 4*071 4471 4374 3 215 4 210 4 229 4*063 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography