DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/13 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 50.8 - - 59.0 - - 61.6 - - 54.1 - - 49.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -14 - - 46 - - 70 - - -31 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3167 - - 6715 - - 1493 - - 1193 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5915 - - 8763 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 7995 - - 11543 - - 6321 - - 6021 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2373 - - 4654 - - 1831 - - 4145 - - 2183 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 245 - - 347 - - 88 - - 79 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 13 - - 16 - - 23 - - 15 BL Wind Direction 080 - - 173 - - 188 - - 202 - - 180 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 9 - - 8 - - 13 - - 12 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - 19 - - 37 - - 69 - - 29 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1502 - - 1121 - - 3377 - - 1183 - - 1648 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5876 - - 6874 - - 8167 - - 5138 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential -5461 - - -1358 - - 1156 - - -1411 - - 615 ODpotential blCL 9835 - - 9353 - - 10387 - - 7732 - - 5406 blCL maxRH 98 - - 91 - - 79 - - 97 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 60 - - 170 - - 180 - - 220 - - 130 CAPE Temp@2m 50.8 - - 59.0 - - 61.6 - - 54.1 - - 49.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.2 - - 43.8 - - 40.7 - - 46.4 - - 47.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.4 - - 59.7 - - 62.1 - - 56.1 - - 51.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.0 - - 42.5 - - 39.4 - - 45.7 - - 47.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -14 - - 46 - - 70 - - -31 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3167 - - 6715 - - 1493 - - 1193 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 93 - - 65 - - 16 - - 88 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96405 41 286 42 286 38 273 41 265 51 283 96405 89205 25 308 26 284 26 285 30 276 29 298 89205 83693 29 300 21 291 26 298 23 299 21 315 83693 79131 21 295 22 300 30 304 23 317 22 307 79131 75218 18 309 24 317 28 300 25 303 25 299 75218 71750 18 299 25 305 25 297 24 301 23 295 71750 68585 24 305 24 293 23 283 25 295 24 298 68585 65659 28 294 23 284 20 288 27 291 28 297 65659 62942 26 295 30 271 35 273 33 281 32 278 62942 60311 24 288 28 257 36 250 36 267 30 263 60311 57564 28 279 23 261 32 251 30 268 30 276 57564 54728 33 249 31 262 32 263 36 281 50 281 54728 52042 33 233 35 246 36 274 41 283 49 270 52042 49612 40 232 35 251 39 282 42 289 33 263 49612 47400 44 231 38 257 41 286 34 298 50 305 47400 45370 51 228 39 252 44 295 38 313 84 301 45370 43507 57 212 38 238 51 304 81 299 99 284 43507 41794 60 205 35 226 54 306 97 287 97 271 41794 40205 65 202 37 219 44 306 90 280 79 269 40205 38717 69 196 41 208 39 304 68 280 62 274 38717 37322 72 193 45 201 28 279 42 287 65 297 37322 35990 72 190 55 191 14 280 33 296 74 302 35990 34661 65 186 58 186 17 256 41 300 75 300 34661 33306 57 181 56 188 34 212 47 303 72 299 33306 31930 52 184 55 186 50 185 49 307 71 302 31930 30517 49 191 53 180 52 176 45 308 75 307 30517 29052 47 196 52 177 50 179 41 294 78 310 29052 27535 44 198 50 176 45 189 35 278 77 312 27535 25966 39 196 49 177 41 199 34 263 75 316 25966 24343 38 193 46 183 33 208 39 229 55 307 24343 22673 39 188 42 188 33 216 39 218 51 293 22673 20954 38 182 38 193 35 203 36 216 37 290 20954 19182 35 182 33 201 33 200 30 215 27 283 19182 17386 34 187 28 206 30 208 25 216 23 257 17386 15666 34 192 28 205 27 212 22 212 25 226 15666 14107 32 195 30 200 22 211 19 196 25 214 14107 12721 28 196 31 195 18*204 18 190 22 212 12721 11482 23 194 29 189 17*198 17 185 19 209 11482 10371 19 192 25 182 17 192 14 178 19 202 10371 9374 16 192 21 180 17 189 14 177 21 194 9374 8481 15 194 18*179 17 188 15 182 23 187 8481 7683 16 194 16*177 17 187 17 190 23 185 7683 6971 16 189 15 175 17 186 20 197 22 185 6971 6326 16 182 14 174 16 186 23*201 21*185 6326 5749 12 174 12 172 16 185 25*202 19*185 5749 5262 7 156 11 171 15 185 25 203 17 182 5262 4885 6 123 10 170 14 184 24 202 14 179 4885 4624 6 101 9 171 14 184 22 201 12 176 4624 4464 6*086 8 170 13 184 19 201 10 174 4464 4373 5*077 7 171 10 184 12 199 8 174 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography