DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/27 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 2149z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 51.5 - - 59.1 - - 62.7 - - 60.4 - - 55.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 41 - - 21 - - -12 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1102 - - 1430 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5930 - - 6258 - - 4375 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1752 - - 1389 - - 2430 - - 4334 - - 2999 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 171 - - 167 - - 15 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 061 - - 131 - - 128 - - 084 - - 109 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 6 - - 6 - - 3 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -9 - - -5 - - -4 - - -7 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2139 - - -924 - - -943 - - -1435 - - -1729 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6513 - - 6854 - - 7202 - - 5810 - - 6104 sfcLCL ODpotential -10103 - - -8315 - - -7170 - - -5400 - - -8233 ODpotential blCL 14477 - - 14245 - - 13428 - - 9775 - - 12607 blCL maxRH 50 - - 54 - - 52 - - 54 - - 49 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 150 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 51.5 - - 59.1 - - 62.7 - - 60.4 - - 55.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.4 - - 44.2 - - 46.2 - - 49.9 - - 44.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.1 - - 59.7 - - 63.5 - - 63.9 - - 62.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 37.2 - - 42.9 - - 44.9 - - 48.5 - - 43.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 41 - - 21 - - -12 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1102 - - 1430 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 8 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97213 23 260 39 256 45 269 39 278 43 276 97213 89895 22 252 25 266 34 260 28 286 30 269 89895 84292 20 252 22 265 24 259 23 272 26 264 84292 79660 16 263 16 256 18 266 20 260 17 264 79660 75666 17 275 11 253 15 265 17 259 10 278 75666 72142 15 295 11 256 11 274 12 276 8 297 72142 68951 17 282 13 272 13 285 12 284 11 276 68951 66009 16 265 15 258 17 269 17 275 15 264 66009 63273 16 262 18 242 20 260 25 265 16 260 63273 60605 16 261 21 245 23 254 26 256 23 261 60605 57812 25 263 24 257 28 265 31 261 28 263 57812 54919 30 263 30 266 32 265 37 267 35 265 54919 52169 31 268 32 267 37 269 41 272 40 265 52169 49713 34 267 34 272 44 274 44 273 45 265 49713 47532 36 272 35 278 46 275 50 276 52 266 47532 45569 36 280 36 281 45 277 55 273 53 267 45569 43783 36 283 37 283 44 278 53 272 53 267 43783 42139 35 290 37 286 42 275 48 276 50 269 42139 40609 36 295 35 288 37 272 46 281 42 274 40609 39170 36 297 33 290 36 273 44 278 40 278 39170 37816 33 302 28 289 35 272 39 277 39 278 37816 36518 31 301 25 291 30 274 36 277 37 276 36518 35211 24 301 22 283 27 278 36 274 34 278 35211 33866 21 307 16 278 26 282 35 267 31 279 33866 32483 20 310 13 287 22 279 31 268 30 275 32483 31054 19 313 11 291 19 264 28 277 27 271 31054 29569 17 318 9 290 17 261 26 279 26 272 29569 28030 16 326 8 292 16 256 25 273 26 272 28030 26438 15 327 9 293 14 249 23 265 24 272 26438 24797 15 316 9 294 13 248 19 265 22 271 24797 23110 16 293 11 286 14 255 19 272 20 270 23110 21372 17 279 15 263 18 257 20 277 20 270 21372 19573 20 272 19 259 20 260 22 275 21 266 19573 17746 19 269 20 261 21 261 24 268 23 260 17746 15988 16 267 19 260 21 259 24 262 24 255 15988 14386 14 267 18 254 21 253 23 255 25 251 14386 12958 12 265 18 250 20 249 23 249 25 247 12958 11680 11 255 18 248 19 245 21 243 25 243 11680 10534 10 240 16 242 17 238 18 233 21 238 10534 9507 10 224 14 231 15 228 15 219 17 224 9507 8588 11 213 14 220 14 217 14 208 14 206 8588 7770 10 203 13 211 12 208 13 201 13 197 7770 7039 9 197 12 201 11 198 12 197 12 193 7039 6376 5 183 10*188 9*185 11 192 11 193 6376 5784 4 137 7*168 7*164 9 182 11 196 5784 5285 4 107 5 127 6 129 7 162 9 195 5285 4898 5 093 4 114 6 116 6 132 7 185 4898 4631 6 082 4 112 6 114 5 101 4 154 4631 4467 5*068 3 113 5 113 5*080 4*119 4467 4373 4*056 3 115 5 112 4*073 4*103 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography