DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 79.2 - - 82.8 - - - - - 71.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 521 - - 554 - - - - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7420 - - 9202 - - - - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 10456 - - 11944 - - - - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 12248 - - 14030 - - - - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1467 - - 1820 - - - - - 8910 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 655 - - 719 - - - - - 5 W* B/S - - - 8 - - 7 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 15 - - 18 - - - - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 206 - - 207 - - - - - 226 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 4 - - - - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 36 - - 44 - - - - - 22 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3464 - - -3692 - - - - - -9686 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 15713 - - 17723 - - - - - 14061 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7768 - - -7779 - - - - - -15150 ODpotential blCL - - - 20016 - - 21809 - - - - - 19525 blCL maxRH - - - 33 - - 28 - - - - - 31 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 79.2 - - 82.8 - - - - - 71.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 24.7 - - 18.8 - - - - - 24.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 77.3 - - 81.0 - - - - - 74.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 24.6 - - 18.8 - - - - - 24.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 521 - - 554 - - - - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7420 - - 9202 - - - - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - - - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98156 9 264 7 294 12 305 98156 90726 4 269 9 265 14 309 90726 85034 9 231 13 298 5 270 85034 80289 12 215 19 262 7 318 80289 76186 4 247 12 228 10 321 76186 72561 9 302 4 230 8 315 72561 69289 11 328 8 289 11 294 69289 66302 19 300 11 317 12 229 66302 63528 26 267 21 296 8 249 63528 60837 30 257 33 263 31 277 60837 58041 29 253 34 252 38 266 58041 55143 34 265 36 263 42 265 55143 52385 44 266 46 266 47 262 52385 49906 52 259 50 259 52 260 49906 47678 55 258 54 261 57 260 47678 45658 60 260 58 259 62 259 45658 43815 63 258 59 257 63 258 43815 42119 61 257 60 258 61 256 42119 40548 60 258 60 258 60 258 40548 39087 60 258 57 258 62 257 39087 37722 57 258 51 260 63 254 37722 36416 54 259 48 263 63 252 36416 35103 52 258 47 265 59 251 35103 33756 50 255 48 263 53 252 33756 32378 48 254 50 257 51 259 32378 30956 46 252 52 253 52 262 30956 29479 45 252 53 251 51 263 29479 27948 43 253 53 252 46 265 27948 26364 41 254 51 252 39 264 26364 24730 40 251 48 251 37 263 24730 23047 39 247 46 249 36 264 23047 21310 38 247 44 248 31 258 21310 19515 35 248 40 247 28 254 19515 17698 31 249 34 245 24 250 17698 15957 26 249 27 239 22 239 15957 14377 20 243 20*226 21 227 14377 12969 17*231 18*214 18 224 12969 11708 15*217 18 212 17 228 11708 10574 15 213 18 210 17 232 10574 9552 15 210 18 208 18 235 9552 8634 15 207 19 207 19 236 8634 7812 15 205 19 205 20 237 7812 7075 15 203 19 205 20 237 7075 6405 16 201 19 204 20 237 6405 5806 16 200 19 203 20 236 5806 5300 16 199 19 203 19 236 5300 4907 15 198 19 203 17 233 4907 4635 15 198 18 203 13 230 4635 4469 14 198 17 203 10*228 4469 4374 13 198 15 203 6*224 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography