DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 08/30 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 74.6 - - 79.5 - - 88.4 - - 80.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 124 - - 213 - - 116 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2107 - - 3242 - - 8749 - - 405 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 5849 - - 6858 - - 10588 - - 4359 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6935 - - 8070 - - 13577 - - 5233 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1549 - - 2198 - - 3532 - - 8516 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 287 - - 384 - - 423 - - 25 W* B/S - - - 11 - - 13 - - 8 - - 3 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 5 - - 10 - - 1 BL Wind Direction - - - 152 - - 178 - - 238 - - 185 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 7 - - 5 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 8 - - 17 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1804 - - 1745 - - 2658 - - -2506 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5131 - - 6325 - - 10919 - - 7739 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -306 - - -278 - - 452 - - -5429 ODpotential blCL - - - 7241 - - 8348 - - 13125 - - 10662 blCL maxRH - - - 87 - - 85 - - 72 - - 87 maxRH CAPE - - - 2360 - - 2870 - - 1560 - - 2090 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 74.6 - - 79.5 - - 88.4 - - 80.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 66.4 - - 66.1 - - 55.2 - - 61.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 74.7 - - 79.0 - - 88.4 - - 83.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 65.1 - - 64.8 - - 54.8 - - 60.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 124 - - 213 - - 116 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2107 - - 3242 - - 8749 - - 405 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 49 - - 39 - - 0 - - 46 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 14 - - 9 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99063 29 114 21 134 12 096 16 086 99063 91590 29 105 23 104 21 093 22 089 91590 85823 24 103 26 111 24 098 26 090 85823 81038 21 108 27 107 21 103 25 084 81038 76916 18 105 21 108 21 115 21 092 76916 73288 14 110 15 112 15 107 15 116 73288 70022 13 118 12 111 12 091 10 102 70022 67011 8 141 8 147 7 125 3 085 67011 64220 5 130 15 142 12 155 7 202 64220 61543 16 218 8 216 8 166 13 169 61543 58773 21 207 21 234 21 258 13 267 58773 55941 21 203 30 215 36 230 35 239 55941 53271 21 249 26 229 31 234 36 250 53271 50873 41 259 38 248 41 248 47 253 50873 48715 54 261 51 259 50 255 53 252 48715 46743 64 263 61 261 57 256 61 256 46743 44921 68 259 68 256 65 257 68 257 44921 43223 67 255 69 254 69 254 69 253 43223 41632 62 252 64 253 65 250 65 248 41632 40144 56 245 57 248 60 247 59 242 40144 38750 52 235 52 243 57 245 56 238 38750 37414 49 235 49 242 52 245 50 237 37414 36066 45 241 45 245 48 247 45 235 36066 34679 41 245 41 249 42 248 41 234 34679 33255 37 245 38 250 38 244 38 231 33255 31782 37 243 34 246 34 240 35 226 31782 30252 36 241 32 238 31 234 33 218 30252 28667 34 239 29 231 30 228 30 216 28667 27031 30 234 29 228 29 223 28 221 27031 25349 26 229 27 219 28 217 25 220 25349 23620 24 227 25 216 26 219 23 219 23620 21840 22 230 23 216 24 222 21 220 21840 20001 22 233 21 219 21 230 18 228 20001 18139 22 238 18 229 18 243 14 236 18139 16349 21 244 18 238 14 248 12 236 16349 14720 21 249 18 249 11*247 10 232 14720 13265 20 247 19 256 11*245 10 233 13265 11960 18 241 19 255 10 243 10 235 11960 10784 16 235 17 249 10 241 10 236 10784 9724 15 228 14 239 10 240 10 236 9724 8773 14 223 11*226 10 238 10 236 8773 7922 13 215 9*212 10 237 11 234 7922 7159 11*206 7 195 9 235 10 233 7159 6468 7*186 5 173 9 234 9 230 6468 5849 5 158 5 168 9 233 8 227 5849 5328 4 142 5 161 8 232 5*222 5328 4924 4 138 5 156 8 231 3*212 4924 4644 4 135 5 154 8 231 2 190 4644 4473 4 134 4 153 8 230 1 134 4473 4375 4 134 4 152 7 231 1 103 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography