DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/20 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 57.3 - - 66.1 - - 70.9 - - 69.4 - - 63.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - 64 - - 42 - - -8 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1558 - - 4702 - - 4181 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 4357 - - 7061 - - 4358 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6386 - - 9530 - - 9009 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1331 - - 4157 - - 3448 - - 3371 - - 3412 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 213 - - 283 - - 90 - - 12 W* B/S 1 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 5 - - 9 - - 11 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 048 - - 140 - - 169 - - 175 - - 072 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 12 - - 12 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - -6 - - 9 - - 25 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1033 - - 641 - - 2508 - - 1986 - - -1394 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5407 - - 5745 - - 7023 - - 7024 - - 5769 sfcLCL ODpotential -4814 - - -1725 - - -152 - - -1563 - - -5505 ODpotential blCL 9188 - - 8111 - - 9682 - - 10572 - - 9880 blCL maxRH 82 - - 76 - - 72 - - 73 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 300 - - 500 - - 440 - - 320 CAPE Temp@2m 57.3 - - 66.1 - - 70.9 - - 69.4 - - 63.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.6 - - 55.7 - - 54.9 - - 53.5 - - 52.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 60.7 - - 66.5 - - 71.6 - - 72.7 - - 69.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.4 - - 54.4 - - 53.5 - - 52.1 - - 51.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - 64 - - 42 - - -8 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1558 - - 4702 - - 4181 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 28 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 - - 17 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 10 - - 9 - - 8 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97564 16 319 14 300 24 299 23 321 17 303 97564 90318 21 309 20 312 18 313 20 301 21 311 90318 84743 18 299 15 320 16 305 19 314 16 314 84743 80118 13 296 15 297 10 291 20 314 15 324 80118 76116 10 319 12 290 9 290 11 306 15 320 76116 72575 11 325 7 313 5 301 6 290 8 284 72575 69381 6 302 0 204 4 201 5 265 5 276 69381 66446 9 217 3 201 9 184 7 242 11 284 66446 63738 14 221 12 242 10 211 11 217 12 255 63738 61125 21 205 18 235 13 237 12 213 11 217 61125 58405 18 226 21 216 20 218 20 217 23 219 58405 55603 34 233 26 232 22 224 24 218 32 221 55603 52945 43 224 35 227 34 232 38 222 39 225 52945 50543 39 230 36 227 41 230 46 219 44 223 50543 48372 38 237 40 230 45 232 44 218 43 218 48372 46384 39 242 42 228 47 233 46 229 43 222 46384 44546 39 243 41 225 47 230 50 232 49 228 44546 42839 38 241 41 226 46 228 52 230 55 226 42839 41242 39 242 42 228 45 228 52 228 53 224 41242 39740 39 244 42 230 47 230 53 227 57 231 39740 38332 38 246 42 233 48 231 54 227 64 235 38332 36986 39 248 43 238 49 232 57 229 71 238 36986 35638 43 252 45 242 50 235 61 232 79 238 35638 34256 54 254 50 245 53 238 63 233 82 236 34256 32841 57 251 53 242 56 237 63 234 78 236 32841 31379 51 248 52 239 56 236 63 235 70 233 31379 29861 45 246 48 237 54 237 62 235 64 229 29861 28285 41 244 44 234 50 238 58 235 58 230 28285 26656 38 240 40 231 46 237 50 235 53 230 26656 24981 35 237 37 228 42 234 47 231 50 224 24981 23267 33 236 36 224 42 231 47 228 51 219 23267 21509 30 234 35 221 44 231 47 225 50 218 21509 19699 22 226 33 217 45 230 45 224 46 216 19699 17866 20 212 30 213 41 227 40 225 39 215 17866 16104 19 206 28 212 35 223 34 224 33 213 16104 14499 17 201 26 212 27 215 28 217 30 211 14499 13065 15 198 22 208 23 206 24 203 29 208 13065 11781 16 196 18 194 21 194 22 187 28 204 11781 10627 16 192 17 180 19 187 19 179 27 201 10627 9590 16 188 17 175 18*184 16*179 24 197 9590 8659 15 183 16 175 16*181 14*180 21 190 8659 7829 13 174 15 173 13 178 13 180 19 179 7829 7085 12 161 13 167 11 172 12 179 16 167 7085 6412 10 147 11*160 9 167 12 177 12 159 6412 5809 8 133 9*152 7 159 11 175 8 151 5809 5301 7 118 6 139 7 156 10 171 6 141 5301 4908 8 102 4 134 6 152 8 163 5 123 4908 4635 8 085 4 133 6 152 6 156 6 096 4635 4469 6*067 3 134 5 151 5 143 7*081 4469 4374 4*048 3 135 5 151 4 138 6*072 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography