DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.2 - - 59.3 - - 66.5 - - 61.5 - - 52.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -49 - - 26 - - 89 - - -1 - - -51 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 95 - - 997 - - 113 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 4923 - - 5825 - - 4941 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 208 - - 1333 - - 3414 - - 4781 - - 247 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 63 - - 190 - - 7 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 025 - - 271 - - 263 - - 303 - - 039 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -20 - - 3 - - 6 - - -2 - - -19 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4568 - - -3746 - - -6118 - - -6904 - - -5377 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8942 - - 8669 - - 11943 - - 11846 - - 9752 sfcLCL ODpotential -13429 - - -10508 - - -11456 - - -13216 - - -12926 ODpotential blCL 17803 - - 15431 - - 17281 - - 18157 - - 17300 blCL maxRH 76 - - 74 - - 57 - - 69 - - 37 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.2 - - 59.3 - - 66.5 - - 61.5 - - 52.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 23.2 - - 36.9 - - 29.5 - - 25.3 - - 25.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 52.8 - - 60.0 - - 66.8 - - 66.9 - - 57.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.1 - - 35.7 - - 28.5 - - 24.1 - - 25.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -49 - - 26 - - 89 - - -1 - - -51 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 95 - - 997 - - 113 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 3 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96315 25 031 26 049 33 045 25 084 4 080 96315 89391 29 069 26 089 31 086 31 089 28 083 89391 83994 32 083 27 104 26 101 27 085 31 086 83994 79472 31 082 30 095 25 098 23 086 31 090 79472 75535 27 076 25 079 26 089 19 081 26 083 75535 72044 26 064 21 072 17 082 15 066 22 049 72044 68902 19 055 18 065 11 070 9 041 16 014 68902 66036 12 035 12 050 12 041 11 023 9 354 66036 63392 15 012 11 039 13 032 13 029 6 352 63392 60835 18 356 16 012 15 016 14 024 11 348 60835 58161 16 351 21 356 17 005 15 001 14 340 58161 55364 18 356 20 352 21 348 22 346 19 348 55364 52667 20 348 20 346 24 335 25 335 26 346 52667 50216 18 343 20 331 28 329 28 327 29 348 50216 47996 15 342 18 321 31 323 27 324 34 343 47996 45962 16 334 14 324 28 319 25 328 34 341 45962 44088 14 332 14 342 22 320 25 329 32 344 44088 42354 16 337 17 343 16 330 21 327 32 349 42354 40745 20 336 18 333 16 342 17 332 30 355 40745 39248 21 320 17 331 20 345 21 356 29 350 39248 37853 22 296 17 324 22 345 25 006 30 357 37853 36518 24 279 16 320 21 344 27 009 37 009 36518 35182 21 269 16 315 21 353 29 007 51 016 35182 33818 20 267 16 302 21 359 33 009 65 020 33818 32426 16 263 17 292 23 007 36 012 72 021 32426 30989 13 246 17 285 24 010 33 016 74 019 30989 29497 13 221 12 293 22 012 26 030 58 019 29497 27961 7 212 5 298 17 025 21 029 30 020 27961 26380 5 164 4 181 11 030 15 022 23 032 26380 24747 7 175 6 188 3 352 15 011 20 028 24747 23065 3 211 4 252 5 318 17 010 19 023 23065 21330 2 277 6 304 8 340 17 009 18 022 21330 19534 5 294 7 329 8 346 14 005 15 026 19534 17711 7 293 5 331 5 358 9 353 10 032 17711 15960 8 286 3 297 3 002 4 336 7 045 15960 14369 4 278 2 182 2 007 2 346 7 046 14369 12951 2 348 3 128 3 065 3 032 8 038 12951 11681 3 032 3 109 4 066 5 035 8 025 11681 10540 3 062 2 106 4 046 7 026 9 013 10540 9513 5 063 1 104 4 038 5 031 9 007 9513 8593 6 062 1 081 4 039 4 040 8 003 8593 7771 7 072 2 086 3 043 3 034 6 356 7771 7037 5 083 3 082 3 047 2 001 3 342 7037 6373 3 095 4 084 2*030 3 329 0 105 6373 5779 2 094 3 080 2*298 5 317 3 095 5779 5280 4 088 2*078 4 267 5*308 9 069 5280 4894 7 073 1*049 4 261 5*303 14 064 4894 4627 10 050 2 275 4 257 4 302 14 052 4627 4465 10*035 2 265 4 254 3 302 12*045 4465 4373 7*025 2 261 4 253 2 308 7*039 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography