DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 01/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.5 - - 57.2 - - 63.9 - - 59.5 - - 49.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -32 - - 32 - - 158 - - -14 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1249 - - 2787 - - 1631 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 6360 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6077 - - 7615 - - 6459 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 258 - - 945 - - 3021 - - 2506 - - 1125 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 157 - - 321 - - 48 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 23 - - 17 - - 16 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 325 - - 060 - - 060 - - 052 - - 008 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 19 - - 6 - - 15 - - 7 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - -33 - - -27 - - -27 - - -20 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6387 - - -7512 - - -9016 - - -9399 - - -10246 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10760 - - 13590 - - 16632 - - 15859 - - 14621 sfcLCL ODpotential -16240 - - -16130 - - -15897 - - -17043 - - -18605 ODpotential blCL 20613 - - 22207 - - 23512 - - 23502 - - 22979 blCL maxRH 34 - - 27 - - 15 - - 26 - - 20 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.5 - - 57.2 - - 63.9 - - 59.5 - - 49.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 11.9 - - 13.3 - - 5.9 - - 5.3 - - 1.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.6 - - 58.1 - - 63.7 - - 62.0 - - 55.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 10.8 - - 12.1 - - 4.9 - - 4.3 - - 0.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -32 - - 32 - - 158 - - -14 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1249 - - 2787 - - 1631 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96582 22 072 31 080 29 077 29 056 33 085 96582 89491 36 071 32 091 32 081 28 074 39 080 89491 84010 30 068 32 086 28 080 25 086 33 072 84010 79432 23 073 28 078 23 089 21 080 27 069 79432 75452 25 056 17 081 18 081 16 085 18 065 75452 71895 15 025 9 045 13 072 12 068 22 062 71895 68657 8 019 7 317 12 351 15 037 24 030 68657 65691 22 003 11 329 13 308 15 333 23 000 65691 62942 30 333 22 353 10 351 10 306 18 317 62942 60274 30 310 35 345 34 353 23 359 14 338 60274 57514 34 304 38 321 44 330 38 335 36 342 57514 54665 34 296 37 301 44 311 44 321 43 335 54665 51930 35 315 40 321 52 315 53 316 54 320 51930 49461 51 328 53 325 60 311 62 312 64 315 49461 47251 62 325 61 318 63 308 67 311 72 314 47251 45250 63 316 64 314 67 309 68 313 73 312 45250 43420 60 308 65 312 69 312 67 318 69 312 43420 41735 57 305 65 314 67 313 66 320 66 316 41735 40179 56 309 66 316 63 315 63 318 63 319 40179 38736 55 311 64 316 56 316 56 317 59 320 38736 37392 55 307 61 314 47 315 51 319 52 321 37392 36103 55 302 59 310 43 320 49 322 42 331 36103 34803 52 307 54 308 44 325 47 324 40 350 34803 33465 51 313 48 312 47 327 46 329 44 356 33465 32095 50 311 44 315 49 324 47 333 44 351 32095 30688 47 308 41 320 47 325 49 338 42 335 30688 29235 43 307 36 321 43 329 51 340 49 328 29235 27730 40 311 31 321 40 331 52 338 50 335 27730 26170 38 317 30 326 38 331 46 337 49 346 26170 24556 37 322 30 334 36 331 38 335 49 352 24556 22892 33 329 31 340 34 332 36 331 46 356 22892 21172 29 341 32 342 33 334 36 330 40 356 21172 19390 30 351 32 343 33 338 33 334 35 350 19390 17582 27 356 29 344 32 340 29 342 33 347 17582 15843 24 357 27 346 30 342 26 349 30 351 15843 14263 21 000 23 349 27 343 23 349 25 356 14263 12855 18 359 19 349 22 345 17 348 18 355 12855 11597 14 352 13 343 14 347 13 350 15 352 11597 10466 11 351 10 347 9 354 12 359 14 356 10466 9450 11 009 9 013 8 014 11 013 15 007 9450 8540 15 035 13 041 9 037 13 027 17 020 8540 7727 22 051 20 054 12*051 16 038 19 035 7727 7001 31 058 26 059 16*057 18*044 22 048 7001 6344 37 060 30*061 18 059 19*048 25 056 6344 5759 38 060 28*060 18 060 19 051 28 059 5759 5267 32 057 26 060 17 060 18 052 28 056 5267 4887 22 051 23 060 17 060 15 054 23 052 4887 4625 12 036 19 059 15 061 12 055 15 045 4625 4465 7*009 16 059 13 061 9 056 8*031 4465 4373 5*325 10 059 10 062 5 056 4*340 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography