DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/04 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 66.3 - - 79.2 - - 84.7 - - 84.4 - - 74.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -10 - - 225 - - 286 - - 21 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 4232 - - 6636 - - 7905 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 7586 - - 9555 - - 7112 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 4375 - - 9060 - - 11464 - - 12733 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 599 - - 1856 - - 1717 - - 1693 - - 7584 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 414 - - 518 - - 236 - - 0 W* B/S 1 - - 7 - - 11 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 11 - - 8 - - 11 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 049 - - 131 - - 135 - - 113 - - 077 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 14 - - 11 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - 12 - - 17 - - 62 - - -7 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3733 - - -3026 - - -2723 - - -2345 - - -8003 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8108 - - 12087 - - 14188 - - 15079 - - 12379 sfcLCL ODpotential -10140 - - -10449 - - -7745 - - -7781 - - -15044 ODpotential blCL 14515 - - 19509 - - 19209 - - 20514 - - 19419 blCL maxRH 38 - - 37 - - 44 - - 43 - - 47 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 66.3 - - 79.2 - - 84.7 - - 84.4 - - 74.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 46.2 - - 41.4 - - 37.4 - - 33.3 - - 35.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 68.8 - - 78.6 - - 83.7 - - 85.3 - - 80.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 45.0 - - 40.7 - - 36.8 - - 32.8 - - 35.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -10 - - 225 - - 286 - - 21 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 4232 - - 6636 - - 7905 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97872 14 240 22 257 14 251 19 284 6 298 97872 90557 7 141 4 234 9 218 12 263 12 313 90557 84941 6 024 5 117 8 214 5 255 5 324 84941 80277 11 006 3 085 1 162 2 093 0 132 80277 76256 10 013 7 046 5 056 10 064 8 039 76256 72724 11 000 12 049 11 056 11 052 13 048 72724 69561 9 359 14 036 13 053 11 057 13 028 69561 66683 6 015 7 027 11 034 14 051 7 054 66683 64018 5 081 3 118 5 333 9 009 10 038 64018 61437 7 088 6 142 6 234 7 292 8 330 61437 58757 5 019 2 165 6 215 10 253 11 272 58757 55993 17 288 13 299 9 289 10 274 13 260 55993 53372 36 270 28 294 21 288 23 290 22 283 53372 51012 38 266 35 294 34 297 34 293 31 290 51012 48874 40 274 48 293 42 292 40 288 37 286 48874 46907 44 282 50 295 46 289 45 287 42 286 46907 45082 46 282 54 295 48 289 48 286 45 286 45082 43375 45 279 51 292 50 288 48 287 45 284 43375 41770 42 274 42 284 49 288 49 286 45 284 41770 40257 40 268 40 278 44 287 46 283 46 285 40257 38832 38 264 37 278 39 278 40 279 43 284 38832 37466 37 268 34 270 35 278 33 273 36 281 37466 36096 33 274 31 267 30 275 31 270 31 271 36096 34693 24 276 26 268 29 269 30 270 28 267 34693 33259 18 275 21 264 24 268 28 270 29 274 33259 31780 18 280 16 274 20 271 20 268 26 274 31780 30248 20 268 17 276 18 278 19 270 20 272 30248 28668 18 257 14 274 13 283 16 269 15 279 28668 27038 15 283 9 314 8 340 9 290 14 283 27038 25353 11 351 9 013 8 008 6 003 8 307 25353 23619 11 032 13 030 13 024 6 036 11 015 23619 21827 11 059 13 060 8 065 1 154 9 033 21827 19971 16 097 17 109 14 121 12 124 7 109 19971 18091 22 095 21 100 21 099 23 109 19 137 18091 16289 24 105 24 100 26 100 28 106 26 128 16289 14652 26 116 26 110 27 107 26 108 28 117 14652 13196 27 123 26 119 24 110 19*111 22 115 13196 11894 29 127 24 126 18*108 16*112 20 116 11894 10723 29 130 22 131 14*108 15 111 18 113 10723 9670 28 134 19*132 13 110 14 109 16 113 9670 8725 25 138 16*128 11 116 13 109 13 118 8725 7881 22 140 14 124 9 127 11 110 11 125 7881 7126 19 138 12 124 8 142 10 113 10 133 7126 6441 17 132 11 127 7 159 9 117 9 139 6441 5830 16 121 9 133 7 172 8 120 8 144 5830 5314 15 106 8 142 7 179 8 122 7 140 5314 4915 13 087 7 150 7 185 7 124 5 122 4915 4640 11 074 7 155 7 188 7 126 5 089 4640 4471 8*063 7 156 7 189 6 127 4*076 4471 4374 4*049 6 159 7 190 5 130 4*067 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography