DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/08 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.3 - - 61.9 - - 66.3 - - 62.6 - - 52.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -19 - - 28 - - 21 - - -4 - - -41 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1209 - - 3563 - - 1950 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6037 - - 8391 - - 6778 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 496 - - 3062 - - 1639 - - 2802 - - 425 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 158 - - 219 - - 48 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 9 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 10 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 339 - - 059 - - 062 - - 077 - - 039 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 5 - - 10 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - -8 - - -16 - - -12 - - -17 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2052 - - -1166 - - -39 - - -477 - - -1951 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6426 - - 7204 - - 8431 - - 7255 - - 6325 sfcLCL ODpotential -11572 - - -8736 - - -6831 - - -8647 - - -10504 ODpotential blCL 15946 - - 14773 - - 15222 - - 15425 - - 14878 blCL maxRH 46 - - 52 - - 46 - - 44 - - 43 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 49.3 - - 61.9 - - 66.3 - - 62.6 - - 52.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 36.7 - - 45.5 - - 44.6 - - 46.0 - - 40.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.5 - - 62.6 - - 67.2 - - 66.7 - - 57.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.5 - - 44.3 - - 43.3 - - 44.6 - - 39.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -19 - - 28 - - 21 - - -4 - - -41 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1209 - - 3563 - - 1950 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96712 60 276 63 276 65 274 74 275 65 283 96712 89517 36 273 39 279 45 277 45 271 46 282 89517 83977 21 291 27 284 28 274 30 279 37 284 83977 79373 25 306 19 289 27 276 27 289 32 294 79373 75428 27 293 23 290 23 287 22 284 26 299 75428 71960 19 269 22 277 22 295 17 291 19 289 71960 68815 16 297 19 273 24 293 19 297 15 292 68815 65914 24 312 20 274 25 283 27 287 20 297 65914 63233 21 291 18 268 22 267 29 267 23 279 63233 60652 16 261 14 282 17 245 25 251 22 267 60652 57966 18 269 22 288 19 262 24 255 23 257 57966 55170 28 269 28 274 28 272 27 256 29 257 55170 52486 30 253 29 257 32 265 33 259 34 259 52486 50063 22 268 29 260 35 264 36 270 37 272 50063 47893 27 291 31 272 38 275 40 280 43 278 47893 45926 32 292 35 281 35 280 40 287 45 285 45926 44125 33 302 31 298 30 294 35 295 39 289 44125 42460 28 317 30 316 28 313 28 307 31 293 42460 40908 31 337 29 329 25 331 24 324 26 304 40908 39454 37 347 30 343 22 339 28 335 23 316 39454 38088 42 351 26 349 22 349 29 337 19 333 38088 36781 41 353 25 356 21 353 23 344 21 345 36781 35467 35 358 27 005 23 355 21 345 22 337 35467 34112 35 006 27 011 23 004 20 346 23 333 34112 32722 35 006 26 015 24 013 19 002 18 359 32722 31287 31 002 27 020 23 019 15 015 19 019 31287 29794 28 007 27 031 21 029 13 036 18 020 29794 28247 31 021 25 043 22 036 16 044 17 025 28247 26643 33 028 26 049 23 041 18 045 17 033 26643 24986 31 027 28 048 23 046 18 042 17 038 24986 23278 27 021 28 043 21 045 19 036 17 042 23278 21514 22 018 25 035 21 046 20 039 17 048 21514 19691 21 026 20 033 21 047 19 043 17 053 19691 17843 20 037 17 042 16 048 15 045 14 052 17843 16067 18 043 15 052 13 061 11 047 12 052 16067 14448 17 047 14 057 13 071 10 061 10 064 14448 13001 17 064 13 069 12 078 12 073 10 079 13001 11709 17 083 13 082 11 084 13 081 11 090 11709 10552 14 096 10 090 9 084 11 089 11 094 10552 9518 10 117 6 103 7 077 8 095 8 094 9518 8594 8 140 5 118 7*073 7 102 5 108 8594 7773 10 146 5 109 7*073 8 102 4 143 7773 7039 12 132 6 103 7 067 10*093 6 151 7039 6375 14 117 7*089 5 063 12*086 9 130 6375 5781 15 100 7*072 4 058 13 082 12 101 5781 5280 15 083 6 060 3 054 11 078 17 082 5280 4894 13 063 5 055 3 049 9 071 19 069 4894 4628 9 035 4 050 2 044 6 063 16 059 4628 4466 6*007 3 049 2 043 4 054 12*051 4466 4373 5*339 3 046 2 042 3 043 6*039 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography