DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 58.9 - - 62.5 - - - - - 53.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 1 - - -12 - - - - - -59 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1022 - - 1259 - - - - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4356 - - 4357 - - - - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5850 - - 6087 - - - - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 783 - - 1244 - - - - - 649 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 133 - - 143 - - - - - 17 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 1 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 27 - - 24 - - - - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 065 - - 062 - - - - - 031 Direction Wind Shear - - - 22 - - 20 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -35 - - -33 - - - - - -24 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -763 - - -931 - - - - - -1049 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6613 - - 7019 - - - - - 5424 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -6514 - - -6225 - - - - - -7769 ODpotential blCL - - - 12364 - - 12312 - - - - - 12143 blCL maxRH - - - 51 - - 47 - - - - - 53 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 58.9 - - 62.5 - - - - - 53.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 45.1 - - 46.8 - - - - - 44.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 60.1 - - 64.2 - - - - - 58.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 43.8 - - 45.5 - - - - - 43.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 1 - - -12 - - - - - -59 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1022 - - 1259 - - - - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 6 - - - - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97648 17 270 25 249 24 292 97648 90383 14 259 19 268 8 259 90383 84808 8 247 12 252 5 355 84808 80180 3 238 5 264 11 344 80180 76181 4 036 2 199 9 337 76181 72639 9 011 7 099 5 322 72639 69455 5 348 7 041 4 131 69455 66548 4 126 4 307 10 083 66548 63858 9 112 8 176 6 354 63858 61254 4 038 4 107 1 171 61254 58537 6 279 7 300 3 051 58537 55710 11 279 10 272 8 338 55710 52998 17 272 16 253 19 276 52998 50540 21 285 17 277 22 257 50540 48317 31 291 27 279 27 246 48317 46286 39 269 35 268 26 235 46286 44411 46 250 39 260 27 242 44411 42669 48 240 42 253 31 244 42669 41048 44 239 43 244 34 237 41048 39537 38 240 42 233 34 228 39537 38127 27 246 38 228 28 224 38127 36784 23 274 24 230 23 222 36784 35442 27 290 15 249 18 210 35442 34073 32 282 21 257 12 186 34073 32679 32 270 27 245 8 175 32679 31242 27 265 26 236 9 164 31242 29753 27 259 20 239 13 169 29753 28210 27 261 14 255 16 169 28210 26614 20 261 9 261 17 162 26614 24964 13 275 7 256 15 151 24964 23264 11 317 5 330 12 144 23264 21509 10 321 5 348 12 142 21509 19690 7 340 3 352 14 129 19690 17841 8 008 1 314 17 119 17841 16065 10 027 0 115 20 115 16065 14454 13 039 9 066 21 119 14454 13021 9 043 11 077 19 136 13021 11739 5 095 7 117 20 148 11739 10585 5 106 7 122 22 145 10585 9547 9 096 10 112 26 134 9547 8616 15 084 14 094 30 118 8616 7785 22 077 20 080 36 101 7785 7045 30 072 26 071 43 085 7045 6377 34*068 31*065 49 072 6377 5782 34*066 30*064 51 064 5782 5282 32 065 28 062 47 059 5282 4896 27 064 24 061 39 057 4896 4629 22 064 20 060 27 054 4629 4466 18 063 16 059 17*050 4466 4373 12 063 10 059 6*031 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography