DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 09/27 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 78.4 - - 83.3 - - 79.9 - - 69.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 258 - - 221 - - 39 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 4477 - - 9552 - - 7319 - - 365 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 7822 - - 11701 - - 8172 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 9305 - - 14380 - - 12147 - - 5193 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2469 - - 1120 - - 1862 - - 1690 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 438 - - 535 - - 276 - - 47 W* B/S - - - 24 - - 10 - - 4 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 9 - - 12 - - 12 BL Wind Direction - - - 238 - - 212 - - 228 - - 340 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 6 - - 2 - - 6 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -14 - - 19 - - 31 - - -23 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2504 - - 707 - - 150 - - -1987 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11810 - - 13673 - - 11997 - - 7181 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5932 - - -593 - - -1501 - - -5491 ODpotential blCL - - - 15237 - - 14973 - - 13648 - - 10684 blCL maxRH - - - 90 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 20 - - 40 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 78.4 - - 83.3 - - 79.9 - - 69.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 41.7 - - 38.1 - - 42.3 - - 52.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 77.7 - - 82.7 - - 80.6 - - 70.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 41.6 - - 38.0 - - 42.3 - - 52.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 258 - - 221 - - 39 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 4477 - - 9552 - - 7319 - - 365 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 62 - - 101 - - 100 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 5 - - 7 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98369 4 094 10 157 4 152 6 010 98369 90991 5 154 6 098 7 183 6 353 90991 85280 2 038 5 067 1 355 6 358 85280 80555 6 101 7 051 9 067 4 114 80555 76494 8 092 8 077 12 055 7 118 76494 72908 9 077 8 093 10 041 7 048 72908 69677 7 029 6 064 6 052 14 032 69677 66738 1 211 6 004 9 049 12 035 66738 64042 9 222 10 263 9 300 5 357 64042 61444 6 257 11 241 9 242 11 255 61444 58728 12 265 19 251 18 246 23 250 58728 55907 26 269 26 255 24 259 29 253 55907 53235 46 276 36 280 43 271 42 271 53235 50851 73 266 69 265 58 265 61 269 50851 48712 77 259 73 265 71 272 67 273 48712 46749 76 265 83 273 89 273 82 269 46749 44926 82 269 89 266 92 267 87 264 44926 43219 85 266 91 263 93 263 89 259 43219 41613 86 262 91 262 93 260 89 254 41613 40100 87 261 92 259 92 257 91 251 40100 38675 87 261 94 255 91 257 91 253 38675 37302 86 259 91 252 87 255 89 253 37302 35918 83 254 83 249 81 249 84 251 35918 34497 75 247 76 246 77 246 78 249 34497 33053 58 244 64 244 65 248 68 251 33053 31576 54 246 48 238 52 243 60 257 31576 30053 47 242 47 240 47 239 47 256 30053 28478 39 236 45 240 44 239 42 249 28478 26847 31 236 41 240 37 244 43 243 26847 25161 29 253 45 251 37 251 43 241 25161 23428 30 261 40 260 40 256 43 244 23428 21644 23 252 33 257 32 267 42 246 21644 19802 24 237 34 248 21 255 40 247 19802 17940 23 227 29 247 20 231 37 242 17940 16156 15 210 21 237 20 229 33 229 16156 14534 14 220 13*226 18 231 33 218 14534 13087 17 239 10*224 11*223 31 216 13087 11796 17 248 11 223 9*220 25 209 11796 10637 13 251 10 221 9 221 17 195 10637 9596 8*260 10 216 11 224 10 195 9596 8663 5*265 10 212 12 228 6 222 8663 7830 4 259 10 208 13 230 6 261 7830 7085 3 245 9 204 14 231 9 277 7085 6409 3 234 9 201 14 231 11 293 6409 5807 3 223 9 198 14 232 12 311 5807 5299 3 220 8 197 14 232 13*328 5299 4907 4 215 8 195 14 232 13*338 4907 4635 4 213 8 195 14 232 12 341 4635 4469 4 212 8 195 13 232 11 342 4469 4374 4 212 7 194 10 231 8 341 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography