DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 03/23 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 64.8 - - 78.2 - - 84.7 - - 84.4 - - 71.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 299 - - 359 - - 79 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3461 - - 7646 - - 8915 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 7107 - - 10473 - - 10341 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 4375 - - 8289 - - 12474 - - 13743 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1523 - - 2661 - - 1429 - - 1297 - - 6792 Hgt.Variab. W* 3 - - 423 - - 586 - - 376 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 18 - - 13 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 4 - - 8 - - 11 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 025 - - 197 - - 223 - - 236 - - 215 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 5 - - 11 - - 7 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - 10 - - 15 - - 75 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9294 - - -7978 - - -5575 - - -4416 - - -11185 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 13670 - - 16268 - - 18049 - - 18160 - - 15561 sfcLCL ODpotential -17638 - - -13749 - - -10459 - - -9563 - - -18775 ODpotential blCL 22013 - - 22038 - - 22933 - - 23306 - - 23150 blCL maxRH 48 - - 63 - - 56 - - 70 - - 58 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 64.8 - - 78.2 - - 84.7 - - 84.4 - - 71.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.9 - - 21.8 - - 19.7 - - 19.1 - - 18.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 69.2 - - 77.1 - - 83.4 - - 84.8 - - 77.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 20.5 - - 21.2 - - 19.3 - - 18.8 - - 18.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 299 - - 359 - - 79 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3461 - - 7646 - - 8915 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96720 32 279 38 279 41 278 37 296 34 290 96720 89499 11 307 23 265 30 276 29 297 24 308 89499 83971 14 330 13 265 17 275 23 289 22 318 83971 79399 20 320 10 299 13 275 16 278 19 312 79399 75467 18 300 12 330 8 307 7 289 13 308 75467 71992 8 309 8 357 9 345 9 317 15 329 71992 68873 10 022 8 067 6 031 5 315 15 324 68873 66029 18 346 14 016 10 046 4 056 11 348 66029 63407 18 313 18 340 19 355 14 349 17 343 63407 60872 16 309 17 332 14 323 14 313 11 310 60872 58203 19 305 20 328 19 336 23 332 19 340 58203 55425 28 324 32 327 36 327 34 335 33 344 55425 52769 46 321 33 312 37 317 35 322 36 329 52769 50348 44 306 30 305 31 318 30 323 26 321 50348 48143 30 298 31 321 37 335 37 343 30 356 48143 46125 39 334 40 331 48 335 55 345 51 359 46125 44295 41 335 43 331 46 329 48 337 53 351 44295 42636 37 331 39 326 32 330 30 337 30 354 42636 41111 40 337 32 325 22 339 41 023 28 024 41111 39684 45 343 30 334 22 337 42 025 32 023 39684 38338 44 339 27 334 27 332 36 011 32 015 38338 37039 42 333 25 322 28 331 30 356 28 010 37039 35725 37 335 28 322 28 328 27 346 26 005 35725 34368 26 337 28 320 28 325 26 341 30 357 34368 32973 23 328 24 305 27 319 26 336 31 353 32973 31527 28 323 23 299 28 316 27 333 24 351 31527 30022 26 323 23 298 30 310 28 328 21 353 30022 28457 20 317 23 297 29 302 28 323 22 357 28457 26837 19 295 24 293 28 300 29 318 18 355 26837 25163 20 291 22 293 27 301 29 316 17 336 25163 23440 19 303 19 298 24 301 27 316 20 329 23440 21663 20 306 16 295 20 297 23 314 20 321 21663 19827 22 297 18 287 19 292 20 308 19 308 19827 17968 22 284 20 284 20 291 20 301 19 301 17968 16181 17 272 18 277 19 290 19 298 19 301 16181 14555 17 258 17 274 17 284 12*281 17 298 14555 13106 18 248 14 271 14*266 10*261 8 277 13106 11817 17 233 13 259 12*250 10 258 6 228 11817 10659 16 219 13 246 11 246 11 250 7 240 10659 9618 14 213 12 236 10 240 11 242 9 258 9618 8684 12 211 10*229 9 231 12 235 12 265 8684 7849 10 208 8*220 8 217 12 230 15 267 7849 7102 8 203 5 206 7 207 13 227 16 267 7102 6424 6 196 4 192 7 198 13 225 16 267 6424 5818 4 186 4 185 7 192 13 223 15 266 5818 5307 1 167 3 183 7 187 13 221 13 264 5307 4911 2 084 4 185 7 183 12 220 10 259 4911 4637 3 043 4 185 7 181 12 219 6 247 4637 4470 3*032 4 186 7 181 11 219 3*225 4470 4374 3*021 3 186 6 181 10 218 2*206 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography