DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/30 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 60.8 - - 62.8 - - 62.4 - - 58.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 76 - - 54 - - 7 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1484 - - 1201 - - 608 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6312 - - 6029 - - 5436 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2071 - - 1699 - - 970 - - 1252 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 220 - - 186 - - 88 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 8 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 4 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 175 - - 147 - - 139 - - 057 Direction Wind Shear - - - 3 - - 5 - - 2 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 7 - - 7 - - 6 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1245 - - 1029 - - 824 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5068 - - 5001 - - 4612 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1279 - - -1604 - - -3135 - - -4778 ODpotential blCL - - - 7591 - - 7633 - - 8571 - - 9152 blCL maxRH - - - 98 - - 100 - - 88 - - 87 maxRH CAPE - - - 10 - - 90 - - 80 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 60.8 - - 62.8 - - 62.4 - - 58.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 53.2 - - 55.4 - - 56.6 - - 55.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 61.0 - - 63.3 - - 63.4 - - 61.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 51.9 - - 54.1 - - 55.4 - - 54.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 76 - - 54 - - 7 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1484 - - 1201 - - 608 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 90 - - 100 - - 52 - - 48 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 10 - - 11 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98043 13 294 9 257 17 220 15 289 98043 90724 6 214 4 236 5 302 2 044 90724 85084 8 162 4 171 7 341 6 087 85084 80397 3 057 5 117 1 123 3 353 80397 76366 1 320 2 350 5 102 1 010 76366 72815 6 223 6 258 4 348 7 051 72815 69615 2 173 6 172 4 276 6 012 69615 66691 3 081 1 100 3 106 2 307 66691 63986 7 117 5 198 5 322 1 064 63986 61372 2 261 5 237 10 245 6 300 61372 58644 8 262 11 276 12 268 14 266 58644 55806 16 275 15 273 19 286 18 288 55806 53094 22 281 13 280 23 291 17 294 53094 50642 21 289 17 305 25 304 31 314 50642 48439 22 292 23 298 33 318 37 319 48439 46436 22 290 26 317 36 320 42 326 46436 44595 32 313 35 323 36 334 43 325 44595 42886 38 311 39 333 45 334 40 326 42886 41289 34 326 44 336 49 336 40 332 41289 39791 40 335 40 341 51 340 41 335 39791 38387 39 339 45 352 48 345 42 336 38387 37040 36 342 45 356 42 349 43 338 37040 35687 41 003 41 358 38 342 42 343 35687 34300 47 007 37 002 33 346 41 349 34300 32882 44 004 37 004 32 355 42 355 32882 31419 33 013 37 358 32 349 44 358 31419 29899 29 035 36 353 36 335 47 359 29899 28323 29 031 30 346 38 345 47 000 28323 26695 32 013 32 341 44 360 47 360 26695 25018 36 003 39 356 45 004 46 000 25018 23295 36 001 39 006 45 006 43 004 23295 21523 37 008 37 012 45 011 42 009 21523 19696 39 019 37 011 44 015 41 011 19696 17846 35 023 37 012 42 016 40 013 17846 16072 35 020 36 016 39 018 39 018 16072 14463 38 018 34 019 36 020 38 024 14463 13030 39 017 33 019 33 019 35 024 13030 11749 37 017 29 016 30 013 27 017 11749 10597 32 014 24 013 25 007 20 004 10597 9561 24 008 19 007 21 007 17 356 9561 8631 15 359 13 360 16 005 13 351 8631 7801 9 345 9 347 10 004 9 340 7801 7059 5 321 6 334 5 001 5 317 7059 6388 3*294 3*322 1 023 3 268 6388 5791 2*234 1*181 4*144 3 217 5791 5288 3 179 5 148 6*139 4 163 5288 4900 3 168 5 147 6 139 5 110 4900 4631 3 163 6 146 6 139 6 080 4631 4467 3 163 5 147 5 140 5*061 4467 4373 3 162 5 145 4 138 5*055 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography