DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/13 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.3 - - 61.8 - - 69.0 - - 63.7 - - 53.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 39 - - 93 - - -2 - - -50 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 325 - - 1261 - - 670 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5153 - - 6089 - - 5498 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 953 - - 1090 - - 1996 - - 3313 - - 177 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 102 - - 207 - - 6 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 10 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 2 - - 2 - - 4 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 010 - - 284 - - 273 - - 051 - - 035 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -14 - - 3 - - -7 - - -7 - - -19 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7862 - - -5864 - - -7450 - - -7267 - - -6678 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12237 - - 11018 - - 13540 - - 12766 - - 11052 sfcLCL ODpotential -16706 - - -13298 - - -13076 - - -13779 - - -15107 ODpotential blCL 21080 - - 18451 - - 19165 - - 19277 - - 19481 blCL maxRH 63 - - 47 - - 51 - - 75 - - 52 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 52.3 - - 61.8 - - 69.0 - - 63.7 - - 53.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 15.2 - - 29.3 - - 25.1 - - 23.5 - - 21.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.7 - - 62.5 - - 69.3 - - 69.3 - - 58.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 14.1 - - 28.1 - - 24.0 - - 22.5 - - 20.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 39 - - 93 - - -2 - - -50 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 325 - - 1261 - - 670 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 2 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96110 26 291 36 297 26 300 34 283 40 307 96110 89093 19 336 19 309 20 309 19 317 24 329 89093 83642 21 346 12 328 17 312 16 337 18 334 83642 79108 19 351 9 328 15 326 19 352 21 352 79108 75196 22 354 12 357 15 354 19 356 23 007 75196 71734 23 342 20 005 17 002 18 000 19 008 71734 68611 21 346 23 358 18 003 19 006 16 021 68611 65747 23 346 24 343 20 005 23 003 24 019 65747 63094 24 332 24 329 24 355 23 358 22 004 63094 60533 23 329 22 321 25 340 22 343 19 342 60533 57859 23 329 19 318 24 330 18 327 18 324 57859 55070 25 311 20 318 22 314 18 314 19 314 55070 52394 25 293 21 307 21 309 19 302 19 304 52394 49966 20 289 21 289 24 294 20 304 15 304 49966 47771 19 295 19 288 23 279 22 285 16 295 47771 45767 21 285 23 286 24 276 25 277 20 290 45767 43931 21 288 24 281 29 271 33 270 34 279 43931 42244 27 289 30 283 34 270 36 268 38 274 42244 40687 32 288 33 282 33 273 32 271 37 272 40687 39236 37 287 35 289 32 277 30 278 34 272 39236 37878 40 278 34 289 33 280 33 283 35 271 37878 36581 39 279 35 284 33 281 35 286 35 273 36581 35278 36 282 36 279 31 280 31 284 35 278 35278 33937 35 282 34 277 29 281 26 279 34 279 33937 32560 34 282 33 281 28 282 25 280 29 281 32560 31135 32 285 31 281 28 285 26 287 27 280 31135 29650 27 292 27 284 26 289 25 293 24 284 29650 28109 27 288 24 284 23 291 24 292 17 290 28109 26515 29 290 24 282 22 286 22 289 15 290 26515 24870 27 292 23 286 23 283 21 294 17 294 24870 23173 25 290 17 289 22 285 20 302 18 310 23173 21424 21 293 14 290 15 286 15 302 11 319 21424 19618 17 305 12 296 11 288 11 297 5 314 19618 17789 12 309 11 303 9 296 8 298 2 318 17789 16030 7 323 4 320 4 299 3 297 4 133 16030 14429 4 315 2 360 1 198 1 180 7 130 14429 12998 6 300 3 349 1 035 1 085 6 118 12998 11717 11 295 5 332 3 356 2 015 3 086 11717 10566 13 290 8 325 5 344 2 034 3 021 10566 9532 13 289 10 322 6 346 4 088 3 011 9532 8606 12 291 10 322 6 359 6 106 1 061 8606 7780 9 294 8 325 5 021 6 106 2 134 7780 7043 6 298 6 337 4 045 6 099 3 138 7043 6378 3 316 4 005 2*046 5 087 5 146 6378 5783 3 344 3 030 1*336 5*073 6 135 5783 5283 3 002 2*037 3 276 5*062 7 096 5283 4896 3 014 1*344 3 268 5 053 11 074 4896 4628 4 011 2 281 3 264 4 044 13 056 4628 4466 5*013 2 272 3 261 3 039 11*044 4466 4373 5*010 2 265 3 259 2 032 7*035 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography