DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/19 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 81.9 - - 87.4 - - 85.7 - - 75.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 372 - - 407 - - 99 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6748 - - 10264 - - 10636 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 9766 - - 12657 - - 11854 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top - - - 11576 - - 15092 - - 15464 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3105 - - 1533 - - 1298 - - 9547 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 567 - - 672 - - 426 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 10 - - 10 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 12 - - 11 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 211 - - 227 - - 230 - - 206 Direction Wind Shear - - - 12 - - 7 - - 5 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 18 - - 30 - - 46 - - 12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 285 - - 425 - - 781 - - -8418 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11292 - - 14668 - - 14684 - - 12794 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2459 - - -2280 - - -2041 - - -14240 ODpotential blCL - - - 14035 - - 17372 - - 17505 - - 18616 blCL maxRH - - - 51 - - 51 - - 69 - - 63 maxRH CAPE - - - 360 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 81.9 - - 87.4 - - 85.7 - - 75.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 47.3 - - 37.6 - - 36.1 - - 35.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 80.5 - - 85.9 - - 85.9 - - 80.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 47.1 - - 37.3 - - 35.9 - - 34.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 372 - - 407 - - 99 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6748 - - 10264 - - 10636 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98469 26 080 18 096 10 094 10 037 98469 91093 20 086 15 076 17 079 20 065 91093 85438 15 080 15 076 17 063 21 078 85438 80757 14 085 15 081 18 056 19 076 80757 76720 10 077 13 088 12 060 18 056 76720 73155 16 091 16 084 11 077 14 049 73155 69931 17 074 14 076 12 085 9 064 69931 66958 7 041 9 063 9 053 9 039 66958 64196 11 073 6 039 8 019 8 001 64196 61532 7 005 7 001 11 337 9 352 61532 58767 6 132 8 245 11 280 11 314 58767 55919 10 313 10 249 15 272 16 282 55919 53223 19 288 22 267 25 271 26 279 53223 50802 25 286 27 272 31 270 34 270 50802 48618 30 288 28 281 35 271 37 263 48618 46617 35 288 32 279 35 269 34 272 46617 44763 38 285 36 277 36 276 45 284 44763 43035 42 286 39 277 42 281 50 280 43035 41415 43 284 41 276 44 279 49 284 41415 39894 42 279 41 275 45 281 48 291 39894 38471 40 279 42 277 47 286 51 298 38471 37115 40 282 43 281 47 286 53 296 37115 35760 39 286 44 287 48 287 50 290 35760 34380 39 282 43 287 49 293 46 292 34380 32972 36 279 39 287 42 292 39 292 32972 31522 34 280 36 290 33 290 33 285 31522 30019 33 280 35 291 28 294 26 288 30019 28461 31 284 33 291 23 295 20 293 28461 26847 28 289 29 291 20 298 16 294 26847 25180 25 292 25 293 19 301 13 291 25180 23462 21 295 21 294 17 305 11 287 23462 21691 15 300 18 296 15 307 9 290 21691 19859 11 286 13 298 14 300 8 295 19859 18001 14 255 9 275 11 286 9 295 18001 16215 16 233 13*251 8*261 6 280 16215 14596 16 234 13*243 8*249 1 284 14596 13157 16 239 12 239 9 247 1 246 13157 11865 17*238 12 238 9 242 4 241 11865 10702 16*231 12 234 10 235 6 242 10702 9656 14 225 12 230 11 230 8 242 9656 8716 13 219 12 225 12 227 10 241 8716 7875 11 211 12 222 12 225 12 239 7875 7122 10 202 13 218 12 223 13 239 7122 6440 9 196 13 216 12 221 14 238 6440 5830 9 193 13 213 12 220 14 237 5830 5314 8 191 12 211 12 219 13 236 5314 4915 8 189 12 211 12 218 10 232 4915 4640 8 189 12 210 12 218 7 224 4640 4471 7 189 12 209 11 217 5*213 4471 4375 7 190 10 209 10 217 3*200 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography