DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 07/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.4 - - 84.8 - - 87.7 - - 85.2 - - 72.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 44 - - 421 - - 272 - - 188 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1109 - - 5055 - - 6770 - - 4929 - - 541 BL Depth Hcrit 4358 - - 8469 - - 9641 - - 8028 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 5937 - - 9883 - - 11598 - - 9757 - - 5369 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 979 - - 2814 - - 2833 - - 2814 - - 1808 Hgt.Variab. W* 165 - - 537 - - 515 - - 411 - - 65 W* B/S 7 - - 37 - - 31 - - 8 - - 5 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 9 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 131 - - 316 - - 003 - - 313 - - 131 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 10 - - 6 - - 11 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg 5 - - -10 - - -17 - - 8 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -364 - - 212 - - 1369 - - 1369 - - 995 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6301 - - 9672 - - 10230 - - 8389 - - 4375 sfcLCL ODpotential -5172 - - -1382 - - -466 - - -470 - - -399 ODpotential blCL 11109 - - 11265 - - 12064 - - 10227 - - 5768 blCL maxRH 93 - - 95 - - 100 - - 88 - - 93 maxRH CAPE 760 - - 590 - - 1080 - - 2000 - - 2860 CAPE Temp@2m 75.4 - - 84.8 - - 87.7 - - 85.2 - - 72.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 62.2 - - 57.1 - - 57.6 - - 62.9 - - 70.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.1 - - 83.3 - - 87.0 - - 84.8 - - 73.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 61.3 - - 56.9 - - 57.2 - - 62.4 - - 69.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 44 - - 421 - - 272 - - 188 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1109 - - 5055 - - 6770 - - 4929 - - 541 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 74 - - 80 - - 101 - - 51 - - 73 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 11 - - 11 - - 13 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99263 47 101 50 104 49 119 30 117 35 099 99263 91720 40 102 39 096 42 103 32 109 36 100 91720 85952 35 104 35 113 36 099 39 104 32 100 85952 81193 34 101 35 116 33 111 33 102 30 097 81193 77085 33 084 34 104 32 121 24 102 30 098 77085 73454 28 086 29 088 30 116 20 110 23 105 73454 70188 23 116 21 100 22 099 21 106 18 116 70188 67201 23 127 18 122 16 098 21 095 19 112 67201 64436 21 112 21 122 15 119 15 095 19 101 64436 61773 22 105 23 119 19 129 8 127 14 097 61773 59033 10 102 20 115 18 126 10 158 9 109 59033 56220 8 170 12 138 16 116 12 161 6 132 56220 53546 12 186 12 181 12 137 13 153 7 149 53546 51138 14 163 16 184 13 172 11 153 8 154 51138 48972 15 153 22 165 17 182 10 180 8 181 48972 46996 8 173 21 154 21 174 12 189 12 200 46996 45171 8 168 11 161 18 158 11 179 13 198 45171 43475 8 151 7 184 9 175 6 204 6 143 43475 41894 6 199 5 113 4 167 2 139 8 085 41894 40407 7 240 5 001 4 022 7 072 2 100 40407 39005 8 280 9 329 8 332 6 029 4 141 39005 37653 7 309 7 327 11 319 7 022 3 147 37653 36289 5 303 3 354 8 318 7 027 5 112 36289 34882 1 078 4 038 5 323 4 040 6 099 34882 33438 8 090 4 048 3 353 2 034 4 107 33438 31944 9 079 4 049 3 352 4 078 4 101 31944 30390 9 066 6 072 4 040 4 095 3 106 30390 28781 9 038 8 081 5 038 3 089 2 124 28781 27119 9 011 7 077 6 030 6 075 1 174 27119 25409 6 355 9 059 7 040 10 076 1 215 25409 23655 3 139 11 038 9 051 11 068 2 135 23655 21850 12 108 11 024 10 050 10 065 3 095 21850 19987 20 097 9 035 9 043 8 091 7 083 19987 18108 23 089 10 056 9 053 12 100 15 090 18108 16313 18 079 11 058 11 077 16 084 17 091 16313 14683 14 072 9 064 10 078 14 089 16 092 14683 13225 14 069 8 054 8 062 12 092 14 094 13225 11916 10 062 10 032 6*041 10 096 10 102 11916 10738 8 038 10*010 6*023 5*092 6 125 10738 9679 8 001 8*350 5 017 2*046 3 210 9679 8730 9 340 5 330 4 012 4 335 6 284 8730 7884 9 329 4 323 3 007 8 318 8 307 7884 7127 6 323 3 316 3 359 11 313 7 313 7127 6442 3*321 2 297 2 352 12 312 4 314 6442 5831 2*122 1 265 2 335 12 310 1*341 5831 5316 4 124 2 230 2 317 12 308 1*130 5316 4917 5 131 2 210 2 302 12 307 2 134 4917 4640 5 139 2 201 2 297 12 306 3 131 4640 4472 5 139 2 197 2 288 11 305 3 130 4472 4375 4 142 2 197 2 290 10 305 3 131 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography