DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 12/10 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.5 - - 61.7 - - 71.3 - - 63.2 - - 56.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -22 - - 22 - - 73 - - -5 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 142 - - 2342 - - 521 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 5505 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 4970 - - 7170 - - 5349 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 397 - - 964 - - 2638 - - 1665 - - 624 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 67 - - 236 - - 13 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 10 - - 12 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 332 - - 028 - - 072 - - 069 - - 020 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 3 - - 15 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - -12 - - 18 - - -16 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4499 - - -4520 - - -5645 - - -5709 - - -5531 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8874 - - 9490 - - 12816 - - 11058 - - 9905 sfcLCL ODpotential -15755 - - -13054 - - -11441 - - -12700 - - -14239 ODpotential blCL 20129 - - 18024 - - 18611 - - 18049 - - 18613 blCL maxRH 41 - - 44 - - 34 - - 38 - - 57 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.5 - - 61.7 - - 71.3 - - 63.2 - - 56.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.9 - - 35.8 - - 30.5 - - 30.5 - - 28.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.0 - - 62.7 - - 71.7 - - 67.9 - - 62.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.8 - - 34.5 - - 29.4 - - 29.6 - - 28.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -22 - - 22 - - 73 - - -5 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 142 - - 2342 - - 521 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96293 10 042 20 339 25 350 25 339 30 341 96293 89272 14 027 16 035 16 009 18 000 21 353 89272 83793 15 010 9 045 9 358 14 338 13 340 83793 79221 12 024 10 351 8 340 16 352 9 347 79221 75257 9 032 11 358 12 350 19 348 14 002 75257 71756 11 030 8 018 8 021 13 340 14 002 71756 68602 16 030 9 017 9 033 9 007 14 015 68602 65705 23 349 15 355 13 351 12 349 17 357 65705 63023 20 335 17 337 18 332 16 318 20 335 63023 60432 18 322 20 322 21 313 22 309 25 323 60432 57741 26 320 25 307 27 313 25 305 24 304 57741 54953 32 314 22 294 30 319 22 311 20 307 54953 52284 34 291 18 294 23 296 24 309 22 314 52284 49880 25 286 15 304 15 278 18 288 24 309 49880 47734 17 325 12 305 11 288 13 275 19 301 47734 45793 24 336 18 336 13 338 6 254 13 273 45793 44025 28 295 28 335 22 342 14 008 1 350 44025 42406 15 260 20 309 29 335 15 353 4 062 42406 40901 8 288 15 308 24 331 12 347 6 053 40901 39482 10 303 12 334 19 333 15 343 6 026 39482 38141 11 329 14 002 15 338 17 332 6 015 38141 36849 15 349 13 360 10 341 17 322 9 010 36849 35542 17 359 13 340 12 315 12 314 13 003 35542 34194 16 001 14 334 16 321 13 318 14 353 34194 32807 14 353 15 333 18 324 17 313 13 347 32807 31370 14 346 18 336 19 326 20 311 12 335 31370 29875 16 349 20 343 18 336 21 321 13 318 29875 28322 18 352 21 350 17 346 22 332 15 315 28322 26712 20 354 22 351 18 344 22 336 17 322 26712 25049 22 353 22 346 20 338 20 338 18 330 25049 23334 24 350 20 341 20 331 20 332 21 344 23334 21564 21 344 18 330 19 322 18 326 19 351 21564 19735 18 331 18 318 19 317 14 331 15 353 19735 17883 19 328 17 321 15 323 11 001 13 009 17883 16105 18 337 13 334 10 342 10 033 13 029 16105 14487 18 355 11 352 6 012 8 047 13 029 14487 13042 17 006 9 006 6 039 7 051 13 022 13042 11748 14 015 8 019 6 053 7 053 13 024 11748 10588 11 030 7 041 7 054 8 056 12 030 10588 9549 6 047 7 064 6 056 6 067 8 041 9549 8620 4 080 6 075 6 070 4 102 4 070 8620 7793 6 084 7 084 7*076 5 113 3 131 7793 7054 9 080 9 083 9*075 8 097 4 141 7054 6385 13 077 11 077 10 072 12 087 6 115 6385 5788 17 072 14 068 11 071 16*079 9 091 5788 5285 20 067 13*058 10 071 18*073 14 078 5285 4897 17 054 9*043 10 071 15 068 16 069 4897 4629 12 034 6 026 9 072 11 067 13 057 4629 4467 7*007 4 016 8 072 7 065 9*046 4467 4373 5*332 3 000 6 074 3 059 4*020 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography