DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/03 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1603z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.4 - - 82.5 - - 87.1 - - 84.9 - - 77.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 348 - - 446 - - 131 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 239 - - 6994 - - 9080 - - 9156 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4358 - - 9936 - - 11738 - - 10994 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 5067 - - 11822 - - 13908 - - 13984 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1902 - - 1768 - - 1339 - - 1344 - - 9158 Hgt.Variab. W* 60 - - 563 - - 665 - - 445 - - 4 W* B/S 2 - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 18 - - 19 - - 19 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 142 - - 216 - - 219 - - 218 - - 198 Direction Wind Shear 6 - - 11 - - 5 - - 5 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg 14 - - 36 - - 43 - - 42 - - 19 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1806 - - 789 - - 1501 - - 2669 - - -5601 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6873 - - 11033 - - 12408 - - 11315 - - 9977 sfcLCL ODpotential -6394 - - -565 - - 210 - - 852 - - -8002 ODpotential blCL 11461 - - 12387 - - 13698 - - 13132 - - 12378 blCL maxRH 84 - - 80 - - 75 - - 74 - - 72 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 10 - - 30 - - 290 - - 70 CAPE Temp@2m 70.4 - - 82.5 - - 87.1 - - 84.9 - - 77.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 55.1 - - 49.0 - - 47.3 - - 50.1 - - 49.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 72.0 - - 81.5 - - 85.5 - - 85.0 - - 81.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 53.7 - - 48.6 - - 47.1 - - 49.9 - - 48.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 348 - - 446 - - 131 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 239 - - 6994 - - 9080 - - 9156 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 38 - - 22 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 9 - - 8 - - 7 - - 8 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98911 22 118 22 110 17 126 13 126 9 083 98911 91472 28 097 25 110 22 143 10 161 7 114 91472 85738 25 096 20 108 18 131 9 170 12 107 85738 80981 11 090 17 091 17 116 15 115 20 108 80981 76884 14 091 16 089 17 096 19 086 25 096 76884 73266 12 077 14 084 16 106 16 105 15 085 73266 69985 7 074 11 111 12 080 15 095 9 068 69985 66982 2 113 5 146 1 031 9 103 9 120 66982 64210 2 140 12 156 7 126 3 079 7 210 64210 61546 13 239 8 237 7 215 3 330 8 177 61546 58772 15 247 19 222 12 228 10 262 6 262 58772 55902 26 247 19 245 26 240 33 237 30 251 55902 53206 40 245 32 251 40 240 44 237 46 247 53206 50798 56 249 49 250 52 243 51 239 52 244 50798 48640 68 251 62 249 63 247 55 244 54 245 48640 46674 74 251 67 250 70 249 64 247 61 245 46674 44864 73 250 67 251 71 247 72 246 67 243 44864 43180 70 251 64 251 70 247 73 244 70 243 43180 41600 65 255 59 250 68 247 73 245 70 244 41600 40113 56 253 54 248 68 248 70 246 69 245 40113 38712 48 253 45 248 64 250 64 249 65 247 38712 37366 42 256 38 253 49 250 53 249 61 246 37366 36008 36 259 33 256 34 245 43 246 57 245 36008 34613 28 256 27 255 28 242 36 243 51 244 34613 33187 20 253 22 254 26 241 28 246 41 242 33187 31718 15 256 22 252 26 241 26 250 30 241 31718 30193 16 258 22 251 26 244 25 251 22 243 30193 28612 19 255 23 253 25 248 23 251 20 246 28612 26975 21 252 24 247 25 251 22 250 19 245 26975 25287 21 249 25 244 23 249 22 244 20 240 25287 23550 21 250 25 241 24 245 25 238 21 236 23550 21760 21 250 24 232 25 236 25 235 23 235 21760 19912 20 244 22 225 24 229 24 238 23 236 19912 18042 19 241 21 223 23 223 24 242 24 237 18042 16251 22 241 22 225 22 222 22 237 22 233 16251 14628 27 238 26 227 20*224 19*224 20 220 14628 13184 30 233 28 228 19*223 19*220 21 212 13184 11890 29 227 26*228 19 223 18 219 21 211 11890 10726 28 222 22*225 19 222 19 219 21 213 10726 9677 26 219 20 222 19 221 19 218 20 214 9677 8735 24 218 19 218 19 220 19 218 20 215 8735 7892 22 218 18 216 19 218 19 218 20 215 7892 7136 19 217 17 214 19 217 19 217 19 216 7136 6451 16 211 17 212 19 216 19 217 19 216 6451 5838 13 198 17 211 19 214 19 217 18 215 5838 5320 11*179 16 209 18 214 18 216 16 214 5320 4919 9*157 16 209 18 213 18 216 14 211 4919 4641 8 140 15 208 18 213 17 216 11 206 4641 4472 6 132 14 208 17 213 16 215 8*201 4472 4375 4 128 12 208 15 212 13 215 4*194 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography