DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/07 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 68.3 - - 80.7 - - 86.5 - - 85.4 - - 77.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 244 - - 286 - - 12 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3394 - - 8983 - - 10135 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 6984 - - 11421 - - 4358 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 4375 - - 8222 - - 13811 - - 14963 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 718 - - 5059 - - 3291 - - 3332 - - 4269 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 394 - - 573 - - 213 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 39 - - 78 - - 14 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 3 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 318 - - 203 - - 036 - - 353 - - 059 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 14 - - 13 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -15 - - -25 - - -14 - - -17 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4290 - - -3484 - - -259 - - 678 - - -7218 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8666 - - 11706 - - 14071 - - 14285 - - 11593 sfcLCL ODpotential -9024 - - -5904 - - -1954 - - -637 - - -10018 ODpotential blCL 13399 - - 14126 - - 15765 - - 15600 - - 14393 blCL maxRH 62 - - 61 - - 61 - - 98 - - 89 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 50 - - 40 CAPE Temp@2m 68.3 - - 80.7 - - 86.5 - - 85.4 - - 77.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.7 - - 44.4 - - 39.6 - - 37.7 - - 42.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 71.0 - - 79.9 - - 85.5 - - 86.4 - - 80.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 44.5 - - 43.9 - - 39.2 - - 37.3 - - 41.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 244 - - 286 - - 12 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3394 - - 8983 - - 10135 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 91 - - 57 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 7 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97793 21 292 21 282 18 247 21 276 17 299 97793 90499 13 312 11 262 7 278 13 262 14 303 90499 84867 6 311 6 270 8 328 6 281 10 304 84867 80192 3 290 2 236 2 279 8 355 11 323 80192 76176 5 009 4 081 5 049 9 027 11 006 76176 72654 10 021 8 066 6 057 7 017 15 010 72654 69501 11 026 11 055 8 046 12 023 16 014 69501 66620 14 046 12 055 12 037 13 033 13 003 66620 63946 16 017 14 031 14 028 12 019 11 019 63946 61353 17 337 19 010 11 007 11 358 15 359 61353 58637 20 330 20 338 16 345 15 329 14 351 58637 55824 34 316 33 320 32 322 35 318 31 325 55824 53165 47 308 44 313 47 319 48 324 37 328 53165 50768 56 313 51 313 52 314 57 319 48 330 50768 48599 60 314 55 313 57 312 62 319 54 325 48599 46614 61 313 58 313 60 313 64 317 61 321 46614 44783 63 315 61 316 62 315 63 316 64 317 44783 43078 66 317 63 319 63 318 61 316 63 315 43078 41483 66 318 65 320 65 320 59 318 62 314 41483 39987 66 318 67 320 67 321 59 320 62 314 39987 38582 65 319 69 321 69 322 60 321 61 316 38582 37234 63 320 68 322 67 323 60 321 60 318 37234 35878 60 322 64 323 62 323 60 321 60 318 35878 34485 57 323 62 324 59 324 58 321 60 319 34485 33060 55 322 61 325 60 325 57 323 61 321 33060 31592 54 321 59 324 62 324 57 325 59 325 31592 30068 52 319 57 323 61 323 57 326 54 328 30068 28490 53 318 55 321 59 322 56 327 51 331 28490 26857 53 319 51 322 53 323 53 325 49 331 26857 25176 48 319 44 321 46 325 49 326 46 333 25176 23452 39 317 36 317 38 324 40 329 39 339 23452 21682 29 320 29 318 28 324 30 332 27 345 21682 19860 19 329 20 329 16 328 19 342 18 359 19860 18019 14 341 12 352 8 344 12 014 12 009 18019 16250 8 358 8 019 10 036 10*031 5 357 16250 14638 4 012 4 023 11*043 9*042 3 332 14638 13194 4 005 3 001 9*047 8 041 1 282 13194 11897 4 040 3 005 7 045 7 036 1 196 11897 10728 4 094 3 045 6 045 5 023 2 139 10728 9677 4 126 4 080 4 044 3 353 4 120 9677 8733 5 126 4*089 2 032 3 313 6 107 8733 7888 6 119 3*094 1 250 4 285 8 097 7888 7133 8 106 2 113 3 235 5 272 10 089 7133 6447 10 093 1 175 4 232 5 265 13 084 6447 5834 11 081 2 222 5 231 5 260 14 082 5834 5317 10 070 4 228 5 229 5 256 15 081 5317 4917 8 053 4 228 5 227 5 255 14 077 4917 4640 5 021 4 228 5 227 5 254 12 069 4640 4472 4*345 4 228 5 226 5 253 9*062 4472 4374 3*318 4 228 5 225 5 251 6*057 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography