DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 68.6 - - 67.5 - - 68.2 - - 66.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 48 - - 44 - - 22 - - 5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1255 - - 1030 - - 1599 - - 764 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4358 - - 4358 - - 4358 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6083 - - 5858 - - 6427 - - 5592 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1733 - - 2162 - - 1523 - - 2220 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 179 - - 159 - - 154 - - 78 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 12 - - 8 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 171 - - 165 - - 144 - - 141 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 7 - - 5 - - 7 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 19 - - 17 - - 12 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1709 - - 1484 - - 2053 - - 1218 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4375 - - 4374 - - 4374 - - 4374 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 559 - - 521 - - 776 - - 56 ODpotential blCL - - - 5524 - - 5337 - - 5651 - - 5536 blCL maxRH - - - 99 - - 98 - - 97 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 1590 - - 1560 - - 1240 - - 960 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 68.6 - - 67.5 - - 68.2 - - 66.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 65.6 - - 66.0 - - 65.0 - - 64.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 69.1 - - 68.2 - - 69.0 - - 67.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 64.7 - - 65.4 - - 64.2 - - 63.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 48 - - 44 - - 22 - - 5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1255 - - 1030 - - 1599 - - 764 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 97 - - 94 - - 88 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 15 - - 14 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98872 20 108 20 132 4 076 13 088 98872 91532 22 094 21 107 16 108 19 095 91532 85846 21 095 24 097 28 108 19 105 85846 81105 18 109 17 089 24 102 22 102 81105 77009 14 119 19 097 20 090 20 089 77009 73387 20 136 8 114 11 097 20 085 73387 70104 14 139 15 160 5 116 11 081 70104 67091 7 144 13 160 9 177 4 172 67091 64309 4 203 7 189 6 172 6 184 64309 61620 10 171 8 214 5 249 6 179 61620 58840 12 184 16 207 14 244 14 264 58840 56006 15 216 17 213 22 215 23 237 56006 53339 15 228 20 232 19 222 20 218 53339 50938 24 240 27 242 24 244 23 240 50938 48774 34 238 35 236 33 248 35 247 48774 46799 39 236 41 230 40 240 40 242 46799 44978 42 238 42 234 40 234 40 236 44978 43285 48 228 47 226 47 226 45 228 43285 41707 57 220 55 219 58 217 57 220 41707 40226 63 217 61 214 56 210 62 211 40226 38835 66 215 54 209 49 203 53 204 38835 37495 59 212 37 194 48 198 37 180 37495 36141 53 207 38 194 45 192 34 173 36141 34743 46 192 41 195 44 189 32 173 34743 33306 45 189 42 197 43 190 30 175 33306 31818 45 193 39 199 38 192 29 183 31818 30272 41 195 34 200 36 194 30 196 30272 28670 34 205 29 201 34 198 31 208 28670 27015 33 214 26 201 33 205 28 216 27015 25309 27 225 22 203 27 209 20 215 25309 23553 22 234 20 205 21 215 16 205 23553 21745 18 241 21 213 18 221 13 205 21745 19885 16 243 19 225 15 238 10 208 19885 18005 15 230 13 238 14 253 8 224 18005 16204 16 215 5 219 14 264 8 260 16204 14570 17 209 6 161 10 283 7 300 14570 13117 17 206 8 176 6 327 6 333 13117 11817 17 206 11 187 6 012 5 011 11817 10650 16 205 15 186 6 066 6 051 10650 9602 14 202 16 181 11 107 8 076 9602 8664 13 197 17 178 17 119 11 099 8664 7829 12 190 17 176 16 129 15 118 7829 7085 12 182 17 176 13*141 16 125 7085 6411 12*177 15*174 11*145 15 127 6411 5809 12*175 14*172 9 143 12*128 5809 5301 11 171 13 167 8 142 10*132 5301 4908 11 170 11 161 7 144 7 138 4908 4636 10 168 10 159 7 145 5 149 4636 4470 9 169 10 159 6 147 4 156 4470 4374 7 168 8 158 5 148 3 162 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography