DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/05 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.2 - - 57.0 - - 60.6 - - 57.6 - - 52.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - 43 - - 36 - - -1 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1333 - - 2745 - - 375 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6161 - - 7573 - - 5203 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 810 - - 2174 - - 2050 - - 3996 - - 3604 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 180 - - 222 - - 14 - - 10 W* B/S 1 - - 9 - - 11 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 2 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 336 - - 102 - - 137 - - 081 - - 051 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 9 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - 2 - - -14 - - -4 - - -13 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1676 - - -472 - - 568 - - -533 - - -1013 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6050 - - 6634 - - 7006 - - 5736 - - 5387 sfcLCL ODpotential -11158 - - -7391 - - -6237 - - -5258 - - -5106 ODpotential blCL 15531 - - 13552 - - 13810 - - 10461 - - 9480 blCL maxRH 56 - - 71 - - 85 - - 75 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.2 - - 57.0 - - 60.6 - - 57.6 - - 52.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.1 - - 43.0 - - 44.9 - - 47.5 - - 44.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.7 - - 57.7 - - 61.4 - - 60.6 - - 58.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.9 - - 41.8 - - 43.6 - - 46.2 - - 43.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - 43 - - 36 - - -1 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1333 - - 2745 - - 375 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 41 - - 2 - - 52 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96548 63 275 74 287 53 275 56 271 61 277 96548 89429 40 277 45 282 39 275 44 289 37 294 89429 83965 23 290 28 269 25 272 34 295 31 299 83965 79443 19 300 22 268 21 275 26 289 28 293 79443 75538 24 313 15 263 20 277 21 284 21 285 75538 72060 25 311 8 262 19 278 17 293 20 280 72060 68888 20 293 11 285 19 270 20 298 19 296 68888 65967 17 288 13 290 15 256 19 283 20 311 65967 63258 18 297 16 298 13 249 19 265 23 295 63258 60635 20 297 18 289 15 265 18 259 23 276 60635 57908 19 293 20 281 20 284 16 265 18 268 57908 55082 25 291 24 278 24 282 19 273 19 274 55082 52377 35 294 28 282 32 283 27 276 27 280 52377 49925 43 295 37 281 37 282 37 280 41 277 49925 47713 51 290 43 282 43 275 41 273 45 273 47713 45693 53 283 43 281 38 271 40 264 43 266 45693 43833 51 279 46 282 40 275 42 265 41 261 43833 42112 48 279 47 281 47 278 45 271 40 264 42112 40516 44 277 44 275 46 278 48 272 43 270 40516 39030 39 280 42 271 43 274 48 270 45 272 39030 37645 39 281 40 269 44 271 46 271 46 276 37645 36330 38 283 35 267 37 269 43 272 50 280 36330 35021 31 277 27 259 30 269 44 277 53 278 35021 33684 24 277 24 253 29 263 39 273 48 275 33684 32317 22 290 20 255 27 262 32 266 39 272 32317 30901 23 292 21 266 24 272 29 263 37 270 30901 29426 25 293 21 276 24 279 30 262 34 263 29426 27898 24 298 21 277 23 278 32 263 31 257 27898 26317 22 301 21 276 23 275 32 264 33 254 26317 24686 22 296 22 275 24 276 27 261 33 250 24686 23006 23 290 24 277 24 278 20 266 30 251 23006 21270 23 290 24 280 24 277 19 274 26 250 21270 19472 21 296 23 285 23 278 19 271 21 244 19472 17647 18 300 18 292 19 278 16 264 20 244 17647 15892 14 304 12 292 14 273 14 255 18 243 15892 14299 11 310 7 275 12 255 12 250 16 238 14299 12881 7 318 5 238 11 240 10 248 13 234 12881 11615 3 345 5 208 10 230 7 241 10 223 11615 10482 2 077 6 196 8 216 5 215 9 199 10482 9466 4 096 6 162 7 189 4 169 10 169 9466 8557 5 093 8 125 9 149 6 147 11 155 8557 7746 4 112 9 120 10*134 7 143 10 154 7746 7021 6 127 9 119 9*131 7 145 8 156 7021 6363 9 107 8*110 7 131 6 146 6 160 6363 5775 12 089 7*096 4 133 5 146 5 158 5775 5279 15 076 4 095 1 154 4*138 4 142 5279 4894 14 062 3 106 1 194 2*110 4 102 4894 4628 9 043 2 116 1 208 2 078 6 074 4628 4466 6*020 2 126 1 214 1 058 6*059 4466 4373 4*336 2 131 1 221 1 049 6*051 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography