DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/14 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.5 - - 54.5 - - 59.8 - - 59.8 - - 53.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 8 - - 78 - - 26 - - -6 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 497 - - 2548 - - 3983 - - 695 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5933 - - 6343 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 5325 - - 7376 - - 8811 - - 5523 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1351 - - 1325 - - 1170 - - 4500 - - 2966 Hgt.Variab. W* 80 - - 268 - - 253 - - 55 - - 13 W* B/S 2 - - 7 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 7 - - 11 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 314 - - 312 - - 322 - - 314 - - 326 Direction Wind Shear 6 - - 9 - - 12 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -8 - - -3 - - -4 - - -8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 279 - - 1262 - - 1589 - - -700 - - -2101 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5046 - - 6114 - - 7223 - - 6223 - - 6476 sfcLCL ODpotential -3875 - - -3956 - - -5248 - - -4892 - - -7758 ODpotential blCL 9200 - - 11332 - - 14059 - - 10415 - - 12132 blCL maxRH 70 - - 70 - - 59 - - 52 - - 47 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.5 - - 54.5 - - 59.8 - - 59.8 - - 53.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.6 - - 42.8 - - 43.2 - - 47.6 - - 40.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.6 - - 54.8 - - 60.7 - - 62.3 - - 58.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.3 - - 41.5 - - 42.0 - - 46.2 - - 39.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 8 - - 78 - - 26 - - -6 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 497 - - 2548 - - 3983 - - 695 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97618 10 263 20 265 25 273 16 286 18 289 97618 90356 3 261 8 292 12 248 14 282 15 304 90356 84743 8 350 6 281 8 275 6 291 10 296 84743 80074 5 326 0 250 6 262 4 308 7 300 80074 76066 7 329 4 033 2 292 8 297 5 334 76066 72546 8 343 4 356 4 009 9 321 7 345 72546 69374 6 025 5 022 1 148 8 314 8 018 69374 66467 2 024 2 014 1 306 6 312 8 002 66467 63782 6 061 2 193 8 197 4 257 8 282 63782 61186 8 347 2 198 11 188 13 221 10 224 61186 58464 14 260 8 278 10 251 8 238 6 298 58464 55632 19 258 18 253 19 256 21 266 22 278 55632 52932 28 257 20 277 23 281 26 279 24 286 52932 50494 27 271 31 281 29 292 31 299 31 305 50494 48299 36 271 34 287 37 303 39 308 40 301 48299 46294 36 266 37 291 44 301 43 313 42 301 46294 44435 36 274 43 291 48 295 46 315 45 307 44435 42698 41 278 46 288 48 289 47 313 48 308 42698 41066 47 281 49 290 47 285 46 308 49 308 41066 39531 52 282 51 293 46 282 44 305 51 307 39531 38088 55 283 52 295 43 285 42 304 50 308 38088 36710 55 283 51 300 43 295 42 305 44 311 36710 35337 53 285 53 306 47 302 43 307 36 306 35337 33944 55 298 56 310 51 303 45 307 34 296 33944 32532 62 304 60 313 53 304 47 307 35 296 32532 31086 66 305 64 315 55 307 47 308 35 306 31086 29589 68 309 67 318 57 311 46 308 35 313 29589 28041 71 318 70 320 58 313 45 307 35 311 28041 26440 77 323 69 321 58 314 45 307 35 306 26440 24787 80 324 67 321 56 314 45 308 36 302 24787 23086 78 325 66 322 52 312 44 310 36 303 23086 21331 68 323 65 323 48 311 42 310 35 310 21331 19518 57 320 62 324 45 313 38 310 34 315 19518 17681 50 315 56 327 42 315 34 313 32 317 17681 15919 44 311 47 328 39 314 32 317 30 320 15919 14319 38 311 38 323 37 314 31 323 28 326 14319 12897 34 315 34 314 35 315 30 329 26 332 12897 11626 31 320 32 313 34 319 28 337 23 341 11626 10487 27 322 29 318 30 326 24 345 22 354 10487 9467 24 321 25 329 22*336 19 349 21 008 9467 8554 20 320 21 340 16*338 16 348 21 017 8554 7741 18 319 16*344 14 332 15 346 22 022 7741 7014 16 321 11*336 13 327 14 343 23 022 7014 6357 13 326 9 323 11 319 13 339 23 021 6357 5770 11*334 7 307 10 313 11*333 21 020 5770 5276 9*333 7 302 8 307 9*326 17 019 5276 4893 7 311 6 297 8 303 7 316 12 013 4893 4628 6 303 6 293 7 300 5 305 8 359 4628 4466 5 302 5 291 7 299 4 299 6*340 4466 4373 3 306 5 289 6 297 2 289 5*326 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography