DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 09/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 73.8 - - 83.6 - - 90.2 - - 88.7 - - 77.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 25 - - 393 - - 431 - - 106 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 65 - - 6453 - - 11600 - - 10580 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 9550 - - 13781 - - 11869 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 4893 - - 11281 - - 16428 - - 15408 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2201 - - 3554 - - 1058 - - 1731 - - 10295 Hgt.Variab. W* 49 - - 567 - - 712 - - 433 - - 3 W* B/S 3 - - 11 - - 11 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 10 - - 11 - - 10 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 025 - - 232 - - 258 - - 269 - - 299 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 16 - - 2 - - 4 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - 14 - - 36 - - -9 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5940 - - -1813 - - 923 - - -1704 - - -9759 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10834 - - 13095 - - 15506 - - 17113 - - 14136 sfcLCL ODpotential -9572 - - -2966 - - -1653 - - -4861 - - -15140 ODpotential blCL 14465 - - 14247 - - 18081 - - 20269 - - 19516 blCL maxRH 75 - - 72 - - 68 - - 53 - - 63 maxRH CAPE 20 - - 10 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 73.8 - - 83.6 - - 90.2 - - 88.7 - - 77.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 41.8 - - 41.1 - - 36.7 - - 28.1 - - 31.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 74.5 - - 82.2 - - 88.5 - - 88.8 - - 83.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 41.7 - - 41.1 - - 36.6 - - 28.1 - - 31.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 25 - - 393 - - 431 - - 106 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 65 - - 6453 - - 11600 - - 10580 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 7 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98201 13 084 11 103 12 116 9 146 1 054 98201 90818 11 106 5 105 14 153 5 097 10 076 90818 85133 9 082 11 102 9 108 9 106 10 097 85133 80442 13 106 12 103 10 106 14 081 14 111 80442 76400 15 091 9 109 14 113 15 077 18 082 76400 72827 13 074 12 110 12 108 9 095 16 077 72827 69592 9 078 13 105 13 114 9 106 13 070 69592 66628 11 080 11 095 12 104 10 094 10 073 66628 63902 6 116 10 075 10 098 11 083 12 089 63902 61276 10 127 7 023 9 055 9 064 14 062 61276 58544 6 062 2 291 10 002 12 007 9 013 58544 55722 15 358 4 242 12 307 14 319 15 327 55722 53041 22 318 9 298 19 281 23 282 28 301 53041 50647 30 300 22 321 24 295 27 285 32 288 50647 48510 34 293 31 310 32 299 33 291 36 289 48510 46560 34 290 35 293 35 287 37 287 37 288 46560 44755 35 286 36 292 36 285 36 290 34 289 44755 43069 38 279 36 293 34 285 33 289 32 287 43069 41487 41 278 35 291 32 286 32 284 33 283 41487 40002 42 277 35 287 30 286 32 280 33 283 40002 38609 40 277 33 281 30 288 30 278 31 284 38609 37273 35 275 30 277 29 287 29 278 28 285 37273 35929 27 279 29 275 28 286 27 281 26 289 35929 34548 26 287 28 275 29 285 27 284 25 292 34548 33133 25 286 27 275 28 286 28 284 24 294 33133 31670 25 285 25 277 27 287 27 283 24 295 31670 30150 21 290 22 280 24 287 25 286 25 295 30150 28576 19 297 21 283 22 289 22 288 24 296 28576 26947 20 297 20 286 21 288 20 289 20 292 26947 25267 19 288 20 286 19 290 18 296 18 296 25267 23542 18 290 17 292 15 295 15 307 14 311 23542 21768 16 296 14 304 11 294 11 314 11 324 21768 19935 11 302 12 294 10 281 10 309 8 324 19935 18074 7 279 12 270 13*269 10 290 8 318 18074 16289 11 246 14 256 12*258 8*255 3 285 16289 14667 17 249 19 258 11 254 8*252 3 192 14667 13218 23 255 22 254 11 254 8 255 1 315 13218 11917 25 250 21*251 11 254 9 258 4 323 11917 10746 23 243 19*248 11 255 9 265 7 317 10746 9692 21 238 15 244 12 258 10 268 8 311 9692 8745 18 236 12 239 12 259 11 272 10 305 8745 7898 13 234 10 233 12 260 11 275 11 300 7898 7140 8 230 8 221 12 261 12 275 12 294 7140 6454 4 209 7 214 12 262 12 276 13 289 6454 5839 2 190 6 209 12 262 12 277 14 285 5839 5320 0 190 6 204 12 263 12 277 13 282 5320 4919 2*048 6 202 11 262 12 277 12 282 4919 4641 4*030 6 201 11 263 11 278 9 289 4641 4472 3 024 6 200 11 262 11 277 7*293 4472 4375 2 020 5 200 10 262 10 277 5*303 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography