DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/19 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - - - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 73.3 - - 79.6 - - 84.6 - - - - - 80.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 15 - - 108 - - 191 - - - - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 506 - - 2817 - - 4724 - - - - - 355 BL Depth Hcrit 4358 - - 6314 - - 7921 - - - - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 5334 - - 7645 - - 9552 - - - - - 5183 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2019 - - 2492 - - 3031 - - - - - 6015 Hgt.Variab. W* 102 - - 308 - - 418 - - - - - 23 W* B/S 8 - - 9 - - 31 - - - - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 6 - - 2 - - - - - 6 BL Wind Direction 341 - - 293 - - 285 - - - - - 303 Direction Wind Shear 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - - - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 6 - - -3 - - - - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 338 - - 1288 - - 1735 - - - - - -1648 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4996 - - 6358 - - 7817 - - - - - 6831 sfcLCL ODpotential -3408 - - -1556 - - -527 - - - - - -4602 ODpotential blCL 8742 - - 9201 - - 10079 - - - - - 9785 blCL maxRH 83 - - 87 - - 100 - - - - - 78 maxRH CAPE 1110 - - 1950 - - 2330 - - - - - 2330 CAPE Temp@2m 73.3 - - 79.6 - - 84.6 - - - - - 80.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 65.6 - - 66.0 - - 64.7 - - - - - 64.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 74.2 - - 79.8 - - 84.2 - - - - - 83.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 64.5 - - 64.6 - - 63.8 - - - - - 64.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 15 - - 108 - - 191 - - - - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 506 - - 2817 - - 4724 - - - - - 355 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 34 - - 50 - - 99 - - - - - 13 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 14 - - 14 - - 14 - - - - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99228 40 097 48 103 37 117 32 092 99228 91683 35 104 32 093 37 103 28 103 91683 85896 38 101 23 100 34 101 27 097 85896 81122 36 092 29 110 28 106 26 079 81122 77021 29 084 33 106 25 108 23 092 77021 73400 19 086 28 100 23 103 22 105 73400 70120 16 101 15 104 22 082 22 104 70120 67121 18 110 13 125 16 099 24 098 67121 64374 18 111 19 119 18 127 23 089 64374 61748 16 118 21 124 17 139 17 091 61748 59036 22 108 20 122 16 134 9 092 59036 56231 25 087 24 108 23 119 11 123 56231 53564 21 084 25 096 26 105 24 113 53564 51175 23 092 24 088 24 093 28 102 51175 49024 27 092 26 089 24 096 28 102 49024 47050 25 076 28 085 26 094 29 103 47050 45220 27 063 28 078 26 086 28 103 45220 43511 29 052 27 072 28 077 29 106 43511 41910 29 041 29 062 30 074 27 104 41910 40405 30 035 36 048 30 072 20 096 40405 38990 30 032 36 038 29 066 18 101 38990 37633 29 026 29 037 31 055 16 106 37633 36266 23 025 27 039 28 048 13 112 36266 34862 19 029 21 036 18 038 12 122 34862 33424 18 034 15 035 13 051 11 099 33424 31940 17 042 12 050 13 063 14 077 31940 30396 15 051 12 052 12 067 15 072 30396 28796 14 064 11 067 13 062 14 082 28796 27148 15 072 9 088 9 072 13 093 27148 25451 15 072 9 097 9 086 14 100 25451 23707 13 081 12 104 10 095 17 097 23707 21911 14 103 11 121 10 105 13 095 21911 20059 16 106 13 139 9 118 13 108 20059 18186 18 109 18 129 12 119 16 114 18186 16387 18 113 17 118 16 106 17 112 16387 14748 17 105 14 114 14 120 13 103 14748 13283 14 089 12 116 12 113 10 086 13283 11969 11 070 9 112 9 108 6 083 11969 10789 8 048 8 089 7 105 1 084 10789 9729 6 009 10 068 5*102 2 275 9729 8777 8 335 10 047 3*096 4 281 8777 7927 11 323 8*019 2 086 5 290 7927 7165 11 319 6*344 2 292 6 301 7165 6473 10 319 6 311 4 284 7 299 6473 5853 8*323 7 287 4 282 7 301 5853 5331 6*332 7 281 5 282 7*302 5331 4926 3 349 7 276 5 281 7*302 4926 4645 1 356 6 273 5 280 6 303 4645 4474 0 348 6 272 5 280 5 305 4474 4375 0 334 6 269 5 280 3 308 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography