DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/05 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 66.7 - - 76.7 - - 84.0 - - 82.4 - - 73.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 1 - - 256 - - 291 - - 31 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2896 - - 7071 - - 5554 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 6630 - - 9907 - - 6391 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 4375 - - 7724 - - 11899 - - 10382 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2164 - - 2934 - - 1512 - - 3086 - - 7593 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 380 - - 532 - - 235 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 17 - - 10 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 4 - - 10 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 052 - - 160 - - 130 - - 181 - - 131 Direction Wind Shear 5 - - 10 - - 20 - - 11 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg -15 - - -15 - - -19 - - 19 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3878 - - -3439 - - -1959 - - -3321 - - -6159 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8254 - - 11163 - - 13858 - - 13704 - - 10535 sfcLCL ODpotential -11457 - - -9889 - - -6883 - - -8117 - - -12233 ODpotential blCL 15832 - - 17613 - - 18782 - - 18499 - - 16608 blCL maxRH 49 - - 35 - - 42 - - 46 - - 72 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 66.7 - - 76.7 - - 84.0 - - 82.4 - - 73.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.9 - - 42.9 - - 38.2 - - 37.4 - - 42.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 68.2 - - 75.8 - - 83.0 - - 83.1 - - 79.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 45.2 - - 42.4 - - 37.6 - - 36.9 - - 42.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 1 - - 256 - - 291 - - 31 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2896 - - 7071 - - 5554 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97987 23 246 11 267 10 230 16 242 15 261 97987 90667 10 239 7 242 11 244 15 247 12 291 90667 85020 3 101 9 206 12 254 13 257 11 289 85020 80309 7 085 5 148 3 210 4 285 2 321 80309 76254 10 060 6 116 3 142 6 024 7 052 76254 72700 13 035 8 103 6 118 7 040 9 062 72700 69517 13 040 8 080 5 070 10 038 9 048 69517 66618 13 045 11 063 5 041 10 026 11 040 66618 63945 9 041 11 044 4 030 8 023 12 028 63945 61363 7 037 11 013 8 359 9 001 12 001 61363 58683 10 339 9 328 7 318 10 297 14 313 58683 55922 18 315 20 328 17 319 23 306 29 304 55922 53302 33 301 35 301 36 304 37 295 35 294 53302 50925 39 297 41 295 39 299 40 301 41 312 50925 48774 45 296 47 303 51 304 53 304 58 309 48774 46812 50 295 54 301 59 303 57 301 58 305 46812 44996 53 295 57 298 60 302 58 302 58 304 44996 43300 52 293 57 296 58 301 59 303 59 302 43300 41707 53 294 55 297 57 303 59 302 58 299 41707 40207 54 296 56 300 56 305 60 303 57 297 40207 38795 56 299 58 302 56 304 60 304 56 296 38795 37436 61 302 58 301 55 302 59 305 57 297 37436 36067 54 304 59 302 55 299 58 305 56 298 36067 34658 37 297 47 303 54 301 57 309 54 300 34658 33215 25 290 27 290 39 301 51 317 50 305 33215 31730 20 285 22 275 23 282 39 312 44 321 31730 30194 19 285 18 283 19 282 28 294 34 326 30194 28607 16 286 15 272 17 280 22 288 25 306 28607 26968 9 280 12 259 14 266 16 279 24 296 26968 25280 5 279 11 237 12 258 10 263 14 301 25280 23545 3 074 5 136 7 227 8 225 7 261 23545 21762 8 109 6 155 5 208 9 225 6 252 21762 19924 12 112 9 162 4 228 5 205 7 258 19924 18057 13 102 14 132 9 165 6 165 1 232 18057 16260 14 097 16 113 17 130 8 163 3 138 16260 14625 21 114 21 122 20 126 11 144 7 156 14625 13169 25 122 23 121 20*119 14 110 11 135 13169 11870 23 125 22 123 19*115 15 104 13 114 11870 10704 20 124 21 125 17 115 12*104 10 120 10704 9655 17 120 19 125 15 117 8*115 8 144 9655 8714 13 114 15 123 13 121 6 141 8 165 8714 7873 9 109 13*122 10 130 6 174 8 173 7873 7121 7 109 10*125 7 144 7 191 8 179 7121 6439 5 114 6 135 6 166 8 197 9 184 6439 5828 4 103 4 158 6 184 8 200 9 186 5828 5314 5 094 3 195 6 194 8 202 8 188 5314 4915 8 086 4 209 6 201 8 203 6 182 4915 4639 9 060 4 213 6 203 8 204 4 159 4639 4471 7*049 4 217 6 205 8 205 3*127 4471 4374 4*042 4 217 5 206 7 205 3*104 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography