DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 07/11 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 83.5 - - 92.1 - - 99.8 - - 100.6 - - 91.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 154 - - 473 - - 527 - - 239 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2878 - - 5238 - - 11698 - - 14294 - - 1786 BL Depth Hcrit 6391 - - 8654 - - 13977 - - 15566 - - 4359 Hcrit BL Top 7706 - - 10066 - - 16526 - - 19122 - - 6614 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1697 - - 2313 - - 2675 - - 2351 - - 6599 Hgt.Variab. W* 317 - - 563 - - 764 - - 628 - - 18 W* B/S 14 - - 26 - - 47 - - 73 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 17 BL Wind Direction 180 - - 270 - - 210 - - 272 - - 276 Direction Wind Shear 5 - - 3 - - 6 - - 26 - - 14 Wind Shear Max.Converg 19 - - -7 - - -23 - - 19 - - 22 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3853 - - -4404 - - -1256 - - 1109 - - -8043 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11559 - - 14471 - - 17783 - - 18013 - - 14657 sfcLCL ODpotential -8181 - - -7378 - - -4653 - - -415 - - -10731 ODpotential blCL 15887 - - 17444 - - 21179 - - 19537 - - 17345 blCL maxRH 56 - - 78 - - 63 - - 71 - - 78 maxRH CAPE 90 - - 80 - - 40 - - 90 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m 83.5 - - 92.1 - - 99.8 - - 100.6 - - 91.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.0 - - 43.5 - - 35.9 - - 35.7 - - 42.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 83.2 - - 90.2 - - 97.6 - - 99.8 - - 93.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.9 - - 43.4 - - 35.8 - - 35.7 - - 42.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 154 - - 473 - - 527 - - 239 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2878 - - 5238 - - 11698 - - 14294 - - 1786 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 - - 14 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 6 - - 4 - - 5 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99171 48 092 31 106 34 122 23 109 29 082 99171 91665 29 086 32 101 33 094 36 105 31 098 91665 85921 25 104 30 103 26 094 34 091 33 105 85921 81160 28 100 26 100 21 121 25 097 30 096 81160 77053 24 101 21 105 26 114 21 125 23 092 77053 73435 23 110 22 121 26 097 21 121 15 104 73435 70163 22 115 22 126 18 109 21 106 14 117 70163 67157 21 113 20 125 17 159 13 103 14 102 67157 64399 17 103 15 116 18 150 12 144 12 104 64399 61763 11 113 12 128 17 117 14 132 8 155 61763 59041 8 142 16 147 15 126 16 128 13 147 59041 56253 8 144 15 150 14 150 16 135 22 134 56253 53618 5 142 13 147 12 160 15 136 27 130 53618 51239 8 140 14 143 13 150 13 135 22 123 51239 49089 13 140 15 138 16 144 13 148 20 127 49089 47121 15 145 17 144 21 146 21 153 24 136 47121 45298 14 168 17 156 26 153 28 157 25 144 45298 43596 14 174 15 156 22 150 26 153 24 150 43596 41995 7 198 10 148 16 139 25 142 21 145 41995 40487 5 228 6 133 18 135 19 136 22 152 40487 39068 14 254 7 266 12 123 21 141 18 167 39068 37706 33 255 24 263 6 334 10 098 16 147 37706 36336 35 259 25 256 14 284 2 337 11 085 36336 34931 26 264 15 271 9 274 7 253 2 062 34931 33492 14 291 7 315 3 318 3 197 1 185 33492 32006 11 301 6 343 4 061 5 101 3 098 32006 30460 8 321 6 013 10 076 11 086 10 095 30460 28859 9 359 10 066 14 088 16 099 19 113 28859 27208 13 049 16 085 17 113 15 126 21 130 27208 25513 20 057 21 072 21 106 18 115 20 133 25513 23777 24 054 27 065 25 088 29 096 23 103 23777 21999 25 054 26 065 26 077 29 084 25 070 21999 20163 18 064 16 076 19 075 24*066 24 060 20163 18296 8 148 5 088 9*071 20*067 19 053 18296 16494 12 177 4 175 3*111 10 066 13 048 16494 14847 12 165 8 186 3 170 3 064 9 046 14847 13372 7 157 7 172 3 188 1 258 6 038 13372 12047 2 264 3 140 3 210 4 251 5 008 12047 10855 6 285 2*318 3 225 6 252 6 330 10855 9782 5 281 3*291 3 230 7 254 9 309 9782 8819 5 277 4 281 3 233 7 255 12 298 8819 7959 4*280 4 277 4 231 7 257 15 290 7959 7189 2*256 4 273 4 227 8 257 18*284 7189 6490 2 191 4 269 4 226 8 258 19*281 6490 5865 4 177 4 262 4 223 8 257 20 278 5865 5338 5 175 4 257 4 220 8 257 20 276 5338 4930 6 173 4 254 5 218 7 257 18 275 4930 4647 6 174 4 250 5 217 7 258 14 274 4647 4475 6 173 4 249 5 216 7 257 11 273 4475 4375 5 173 4 248 4 215 6 257 5 272 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography