DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/31 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 54.1 - - 55.5 - - 59.6 - - 57.4 - - 56.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 28 - - 44 - - -1 - - 5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 13 - - 598 - - 2356 - - 1176 - - 296 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4841 - - 5426 - - 7184 - - 6004 - - 5124 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3114 - - 2094 - - 1762 - - 2453 - - 1718 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 112 - - 215 - - 53 - - 49 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 10 - - 10 - - 8 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 107 - - 161 - - 176 - - 156 - - 180 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 6 - - 10 - - 8 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 15 - - 13 - - 16 - - 14 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 468 - - 1053 - - 2811 - - 1631 - - 751 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential -1423 - - 657 - - 752 - - 442 - - 500 ODpotential blCL 6264 - - 4769 - - 6432 - - 5562 - - 4624 blCL maxRH 98 - - 100 - - 95 - - 100 - - 101 maxRH CAPE 60 - - 180 - - 340 - - 280 - - 140 CAPE Temp@2m 54.1 - - 55.5 - - 59.6 - - 57.4 - - 56.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 50.6 - - 54.5 - - 55.1 - - 55.6 - - 56.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.2 - - 56.2 - - 60.3 - - 58.7 - - 57.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 49.6 - - 54.1 - - 53.9 - - 55.2 - - 56.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 28 - - 44 - - -1 - - 5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 13 - - 598 - - 2356 - - 1176 - - 296 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 94 - - 101 - - 81 - - 101 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 9 - - 10 - - 9 - - 10 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96998 54 282 53 277 59 276 59 277 61 279 96998 89893 45 281 46 277 46 279 42 277 43 282 89893 84420 35 275 35 280 33 274 28 287 31 294 84420 79854 23 277 21 285 18 258 20 275 23 292 79854 75890 11 279 14 273 14 255 18 274 18 289 75890 72363 20 278 17 257 16 257 17 264 17 277 72363 69149 20 260 18 243 21 250 14 243 16 255 69149 66172 19 248 19 249 20 247 12 243 15 247 66172 63393 25 253 20 253 19 249 17 252 19 242 63393 60702 29 256 33 250 30 249 33 249 28 248 60702 57912 38 257 42 238 37 237 36 244 33 248 57912 55049 48 253 43 251 39 262 42 268 40 264 55049 52348 58 257 68 262 70 259 77 256 65 260 52348 49942 70 262 77 252 78 246 74 241 69 250 49942 47819 78 266 69 252 70 259 60 253 76 263 47819 45913 97 269 79 266 79 271 104 270 105 263 45913 44169 111 271 106 278 110 272 121 264 107 255 44169 42543 123 270 125 279 120 266 115 260 95 248 42543 41008 129 269 120 275 115 261 105 256 93 247 41008 39556 128 268 107 270 106 260 104 253 90 243 39556 38181 123 267 102 266 98 257 102 251 87 242 38181 36855 121 268 104 265 96 255 99 251 84 245 36855 35515 119 270 105 265 97 255 96 252 91 255 35515 34137 113 273 105 266 96 254 91 252 98 260 34137 32725 91 272 100 267 92 255 86 249 94 261 32725 31266 71 264 88 268 88 257 79 244 85 258 31266 29750 63 261 73 265 85 264 74 243 74 255 29750 28176 46 255 55 256 71 267 66 252 62 249 28176 26547 40 246 45 252 51 258 50 249 58 241 26547 24868 41 241 41 236 43 244 48 234 56 233 24868 23145 42 241 42 230 42 237 51 230 49 235 23145 21374 39 247 40 236 44 232 47 225 49 239 21374 19547 35 252 37 241 40 227 41 220 49 224 19547 17702 32 247 33 240 34 222 37 219 43 208 17702 15937 32 239 30 233 31 220 35 216 37 205 15937 14336 30 229 28 224 29 217 30 212 32 201 14336 12913 27 220 26 212 28 214 27 212 29 190 12913 11643 24 213 25 202 26 211 24 212 27 182 11643 10506 22 202 23 193 24 205 20 207 25 177 10506 9484 20 184 21 184 22 200 18 196 22 174 9484 8569 20 172 20 178 20 194 16 183 20 173 8569 7754 18 172 18 175 18*189 15 172 19 172 7754 7025 17 174 17 172 15*185 14 167 18 172 7025 6365 16 171 15 170 12 181 13*165 16 174 6365 5775 15 164 14*169 10 177 12*163 14 177 5775 5279 12 157 12*166 9 171 10 160 11*180 5279 4895 8*139 10 162 7 166 8 154 9*180 4895 4629 6*119 9 159 7 163 6 148 7 180 4629 4467 5 104 8 158 6 163 5 147 5 179 4467 4373 4 097 7 157 5 164 4 146 4 180 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography