DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 11/11 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.4 - - 60.7 - - 65.4 - - 60.5 - - 51.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - 21 - - 15 - - -4 - - -48 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 911 - - 2692 - - 685 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5739 - - 7520 - - 5513 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 686 - - 1712 - - 2601 - - 3534 - - 355 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 135 - - 189 - - 30 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 7 - - 12 - - 10 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 292 - - 079 - - 092 - - 071 - - 036 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 7 - - 13 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -6 - - 12 - - -15 - - -18 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2380 - - -2195 - - -1617 - - -2257 - - -1734 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6754 - - 7935 - - 9137 - - 7771 - - 6108 sfcLCL ODpotential -11220 - - -8534 - - -8317 - - -8779 - - -9125 ODpotential blCL 15594 - - 14273 - - 15837 - - 14292 - - 13499 blCL maxRH 43 - - 45 - - 38 - - 40 - - 46 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.4 - - 60.7 - - 65.4 - - 60.5 - - 51.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 34.5 - - 41.4 - - 40.7 - - 41.8 - - 40.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.4 - - 61.6 - - 66.3 - - 64.5 - - 56.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.4 - - 40.1 - - 39.4 - - 40.5 - - 39.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - 21 - - 15 - - -4 - - -48 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 911 - - 2692 - - 685 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96632 37 278 49 282 48 282 47 282 54 284 96632 89483 20 300 31 289 32 282 36 291 39 308 89483 83993 22 319 24 295 23 291 35 299 30 316 83993 79438 24 322 23 295 25 301 31 301 27 311 79438 75503 21 320 20 294 24 305 24 312 25 312 75503 72021 19 313 15 296 21 306 22 318 19 319 72021 68879 23 309 14 310 16 306 18 310 16 319 68879 66010 21 305 15 307 17 303 15 312 15 316 66010 63369 17 300 17 307 20 297 19 320 18 327 63369 60830 20 315 21 314 24 300 23 305 26 315 60830 58193 22 300 19 317 19 288 23 282 30 283 58193 55443 20 333 28 346 23 332 15 301 24 249 55443 52801 36 330 40 327 39 318 34 319 33 307 52801 50422 45 320 45 311 48 307 50 305 55 298 50422 48275 47 318 39 307 38 301 50 293 57 284 48275 46294 43 324 31 318 28 316 35 286 33 295 46294 44454 36 352 34 330 32 348 19 319 27 314 44454 42739 50 002 35 353 39 356 32 347 29 331 42739 41138 54 352 48 360 42 358 41 351 36 345 41138 39642 45 347 49 353 43 354 38 352 44 349 39642 38240 35 346 34 359 33 358 36 351 40 350 38240 36891 31 342 26 005 28 002 29 346 34 356 36891 35532 25 336 21 009 25 010 23 335 29 357 35532 34135 22 306 16 006 19 017 20 337 24 352 34135 32703 20 282 15 312 12 007 16 349 20 343 32703 31224 23 271 15 267 10 305 11 354 18 013 31224 29699 20 262 17 260 15 265 5 281 15 030 29699 28143 18 264 16 260 14 258 11 248 6 297 28143 26547 16 265 13 259 9 262 5 227 4 244 26547 24904 12 262 7 241 7 242 7 207 4 204 24904 23211 6 256 4 191 7 204 8 196 6 193 23211 21460 2 138 4 162 6 197 7 182 6 177 21460 19644 7 110 7 118 6 135 6 165 4 179 19644 17797 7 104 7 104 8 111 8 119 8 106 17797 16022 11 093 8 102 9 111 9 100 12 105 16022 14412 14 079 11 089 10 100 11 103 13 115 14412 12977 14 070 12 083 12 090 12 096 12 119 12977 11695 10 068 11 084 12 089 10 092 11 114 11695 10545 6 084 10 093 10 096 8 087 10 102 10545 9515 6 113 11 113 10 117 7 097 8 088 9515 8593 8 111 12 118 11 121 7 123 4 102 8593 7772 11 098 14 111 12*112 8 124 4 142 7772 7039 15 087 14 103 13*102 10 112 6 145 7039 6374 20 079 15 094 14 094 13 096 8 124 6374 5780 23 073 14*084 13 091 16*085 12 099 5780 5280 22 067 11*080 13 089 15*078 16 082 5280 4894 15 056 8 079 12 088 12 073 19 069 4894 4627 8 037 5 078 10 089 8 066 17 058 4627 4466 4*352 4 080 9 089 6 059 12*049 4466 4373 4*292 3 084 7 089 3 045 6*036 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography