DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 02/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 56.4 - - 58.6 - - 57.1 - - 51.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 188 - - 201 - - 46 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3848 - - 4798 - - 4405 - - 453 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 7211 - - 7955 - - 6426 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top - - - 8676 - - 9626 - - 9233 - - 5281 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 978 - - 1253 - - 1914 - - 4386 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 377 - - 414 - - 249 - - 26 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 22 - - 25 - - 27 - - 24 BL Wind Direction - - - 179 - - 186 - - 188 - - 197 Direction Wind Shear - - - 17 - - 15 - - 16 - - 23 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 39 - - 52 - - 55 - - 70 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -728 - - -640 - - -949 - - -3824 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9404 - - 10267 - - 10182 - - 9105 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -6555 - - -5172 - - -4501 - - -8006 ODpotential blCL - - - 15231 - - 14798 - - 13734 - - 13287 blCL maxRH - - - 89 - - 100 - - 79 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 56.4 - - 58.6 - - 57.1 - - 51.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 30.3 - - 28.7 - - 27.6 - - 26.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 56.4 - - 58.6 - - 57.9 - - 53.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 29.8 - - 28.1 - - 27.2 - - 26.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 188 - - 201 - - 46 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3848 - - 4798 - - 4405 - - 453 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 58 - - 101 - - 15 - - 100 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96546 13 091 23 099 28 108 27 108 96546 89424 16 113 19 099 20 118 12 105 89424 83913 15 139 7 157 7 156 7 077 83913 79311 11 147 6 144 4 105 8 079 79311 75327 8 175 6 211 10 251 3 352 75327 71786 8 211 4 255 3 286 8 260 71786 68605 6 225 9 265 7 292 9 007 68605 65664 20 238 26 246 22 252 16 289 65664 62923 27 248 25 258 9 240 15 210 62923 60285 39 249 23 254 11 153 21 145 60285 57498 53 246 33 244 24 222 31 227 57498 54576 58 242 47 244 62 246 68 256 54576 51807 64 244 71 246 90 249 82 258 51807 49332 75 247 91 246 101 248 91 255 49332 47112 85 249 100 246 106 247 98 255 47112 45089 93 250 104 247 110 247 102 254 45089 43231 99 248 109 247 114 247 105 252 43231 41519 102 244 115 244 120 247 113 251 41519 39937 106 241 120 239 128 247 125 249 39937 38471 109 241 122 237 134 246 135 248 38471 37111 110 242 120 236 135 244 140 246 37111 35814 106 242 117 237 131 242 142 244 35814 34509 101 241 116 238 126 243 142 243 34509 33167 97 239 115 240 123 244 140 243 33167 31794 97 238 114 239 120 244 136 244 31794 30378 96 238 112 239 116 243 128 243 30378 28910 93 239 109 241 112 242 119 243 28910 27393 88 239 103 244 106 242 109 242 27393 25829 85 237 94 243 98 241 101 240 25829 24219 82 234 86 239 89 238 97 238 24219 22566 79 232 84 234 86 235 95 235 22566 20862 74 230 80 232 85 234 94 233 20862 19104 68 229 74 231 81 231 90 232 19104 17329 61 228 68 228 73 229 82 229 17329 15628 57 227 64 225 64 227 71 226 15628 14078 54 224 60 222 57 227 65 221 14078 12693 51 219 54 217 50 226 59 215 12693 11457 47 213 47 210 44 219 53 209 11457 10350 42 207 39*202 38 208 50 204 10350 9359 37*199 30*192 33*196 48 199 9359 8471 30*189 27 188 31*192 47 197 8471 7678 26 182 26 186 29 189 45 197 7678 6968 23 179 26 186 29 189 44 200 6968 6324 22 177 25 185 28 188 42 203 6324 5748 21 176 25 185 27 187 38*203 5748 5261 20 175 24 184 26 186 33*202 5261 4885 19 174 23 183 24 185 27 199 4885 4623 18 174 22 183 22 185 21 194 4623 4464 17 174 20 183 20 184 18 191 4464 4372 13 174 15 183 15 184 11 188 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography