DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/01 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.4 - - 56.7 - - 54.5 - - 53.8 - - 53.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 2 - - -5 - - 20 - - 3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 215 - - 941 - - 445 - - 600 - - 208 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 5043 - - 5769 - - 5273 - - 5428 - - 5036 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1638 - - 2516 - - 2061 - - 2389 - - 3123 Hgt.Variab. W* 34 - - 71 - - 92 - - 64 - - 24 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 10 - - 22 - - 26 - - 13 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 186 - - 187 - - 206 - - 244 - - 248 Direction Wind Shear 7 - - 15 - - 16 - - 13 - - 11 Wind Shear Max.Converg 24 - - 63 - - 78 - - 32 - - 16 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 670 - - 1396 - - 900 - - 1055 - - 663 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential 174 - - 352 - - 274 - - -130 - - -717 ODpotential blCL 4869 - - 5417 - - 4999 - - 5558 - - 5753 blCL maxRH 101 - - 100 - - 100 - - 96 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 330 - - 180 - - 160 - - 220 CAPE Temp@2m 55.4 - - 56.7 - - 54.5 - - 53.8 - - 53.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 54.6 - - 54.6 - - 53.3 - - 51.8 - - 51.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.4 - - 58.0 - - 55.4 - - 55.1 - - 55.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 54.5 - - 54.1 - - 53.0 - - 51.2 - - 51.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 2 - - -5 - - 20 - - 3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 215 - - 941 - - 445 - - 600 - - 208 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 104 - - 99 - - 100 - - 83 - - 94 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 10 - - 10 - - 9 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96828 55 285 55 280 58 279 57 279 66 279 96828 89713 42 285 42 279 44 284 35 287 37 297 89713 84264 27 285 34 291 28 280 25 284 26 305 84264 79769 11 301 19 281 18 277 18 291 17 306 79769 75873 14 305 12 290 14 277 10 306 16 329 75873 72372 16 275 12 306 16 283 11 317 17 309 72372 69184 11 283 5 295 8 276 7 303 13 256 69184 66248 19 268 16 281 3 298 4 338 8 182 66248 63504 26 251 30 245 22 261 24 283 12 315 63504 60855 22 267 32 230 31 246 39 257 31 302 60855 58133 22 287 16 239 25 255 35 250 42 284 58133 55342 29 270 18 285 25 281 23 268 42 263 55342 52696 50 263 38 279 41 293 25 312 23 247 52696 50315 67 246 51 271 56 297 41 316 16 275 50315 48160 69 243 65 262 68 288 47 300 24 284 48160 46178 84 245 71 254 63 280 51 283 35 277 46178 44337 103 241 72 248 50 283 55 270 45 269 44337 42618 112 239 73 244 49 288 59 264 53 263 42618 41002 113 238 76 243 53 285 64 263 57 259 41002 39478 113 237 84 242 58 280 67 260 58 255 39478 38042 113 234 98 237 60 277 67 258 58 254 38042 36659 109 233 114 233 61 273 64 259 57 255 36659 35263 100 234 116 229 60 268 65 263 57 263 35263 33830 88 234 110 227 57 264 71 266 69 271 33830 32378 85 231 112 223 55 255 76 266 85 273 32378 30902 83 228 115 220 64 236 76 264 89 268 30902 29385 77 226 117 217 81 221 74 260 82 263 29385 27821 73 227 115 214 94 214 71 255 76 260 27821 26212 74 229 102 211 98 215 68 253 74 256 26212 24559 77 229 80 205 92 219 67 253 72 253 24559 22862 80 226 70 205 76 224 66 253 70 252 22862 21112 81 222 66 212 61 224 64 250 71 253 21112 19307 80 223 59 221 55 225 62 245 69 250 19307 17488 75 226 60 233 55 227 59 240 63 242 17488 15756 64 227 64 245 55 229 55 234 55 232 15756 14189 57 226 60 249 56 231 51 230 49 225 14189 12795 51 223 55 246 54 236 49 229 45 225 12795 11548 46 222 52 240 53 235 46 229 42 228 11548 10430 43 222 50 232 51 230 43 232 39 235 10430 9426 41 222 48 224 47 225 40 236 37 242 9426 8525 39 221 45 217 44 220 37 238 33 247 8525 7720 37 221 42 213 41 216 34 240 31 250 7720 7000 34 221 39 209 38 214 30 242 28 251 7000 6348 29 220 36 206 36 212 26 243 26 253 6348 5764 23 216 32*201 35*211 23*244 22 254 5764 5272 17*208 27*194 32*209 19*245 18*254 5272 4891 13*196 24 188 28 207 15 244 13*254 4891 4627 10 185 21 183 25 205 12 244 9 250 4627 4466 9 179 18 181 22 204 10 242 6 243 4466 4373 7 176 13 178 16 202 6 237 3 222 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography