DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 08/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 82.8 - - 93.6 - - - - - 85.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 351 - - 370 - - - - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2703 - - 11652 - - - - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 6583 - - 13735 - - - - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top - - - 7531 - - 16480 - - - - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 6463 - - 2206 - - - - - 12266 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 411 - - 679 - - - - - 5 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 26 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 12 - - 5 - - - - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 320 - - 224 - - - - - 326 Direction Wind Shear - - - 8 - - 1 - - - - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -22 - - 14 - - - - - -9 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1771 - - 1457 - - - - - -8379 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9302 - - 15024 - - - - - 12756 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4506 - - 612 - - - - - -10791 ODpotential blCL - - - 12037 - - 15868 - - - - - 15167 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 97 - - - - - 82 maxRH CAPE - - - 1200 - - 160 - - - - - 320 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 82.8 - - 93.6 - - - - - 85.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 57.0 - - 42.4 - - - - - 45.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 81.6 - - 92.0 - - - - - 90.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 56.5 - - 42.2 - - - - - 45.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 351 - - 370 - - - - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2703 - - 11652 - - - - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 99 - - 88 - - - - - 28 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 6 - - - - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99161 43 098 33 096 28 107 99161 91695 33 102 40 102 34 093 91695 85939 33 101 37 110 37 092 85939 81159 32 099 35 113 29 084 81159 77064 24 102 26 104 24 084 77064 73457 17 094 20 088 23 086 73457 70194 12 097 16 093 18 080 70194 67201 16 104 9 109 13 077 67201 64435 15 096 10 138 9 037 64435 61771 14 096 8 122 4 046 61771 59008 3 108 2 170 3 113 59008 56143 17 220 17 240 12 292 56143 53423 19 215 24 220 25 250 53423 50990 20 214 24 208 26 253 50990 48804 27 253 31 249 32 283 48804 46809 42 250 43 251 35 280 46809 44978 45 243 44 249 33 284 44978 43289 39 239 35 252 31 287 43289 41716 34 240 29 243 30 286 41716 40242 34 233 28 240 27 280 40242 38856 38 218 31 238 25 272 38856 37524 40 215 31 238 23 267 37524 36181 39 222 30 236 22 271 36181 34798 37 232 30 230 22 277 34798 33380 32 239 30 226 20 279 33380 31911 25 243 26 236 20 280 31911 30383 23 245 25 246 20 285 30383 28798 18 248 22 261 16 291 28798 27159 19 251 21 275 13 286 27159 25468 21 252 18 285 12 272 25468 23732 20 252 13 286 11 254 23732 21947 19 240 10 254 15 243 21947 20103 19 219 8 222 15 244 20103 18234 17 197 6*209 10 235 18234 16436 16 186 5*218 7 173 16436 14798 13 180 4 224 6 163 14798 13330 11 176 4 227 4 167 13330 12013 9 168 4 230 2 177 12013 10827 8 154 4 230 1 304 10827 9760 6 137 5 230 3 325 9760 8801 4 122 5 228 4 325 8801 7944 1*059 5 226 6 325 7944 7177 4*328 5 224 7 322 7177 6481 9 318 6 220 8 320 6481 5859 15 321 6 217 8 319 5859 5334 16 321 6 216 8 319 5334 4927 16 321 6 215 8 319 4927 4646 15 320 6 214 7 320 4646 4474 15 319 6 214 6*325 4474 4375 12 318 5 213 5*327 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography