DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 09/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 70.4 - - 73.1 - - 78.9 - - 74.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 70 - - 73 - - 27 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1720 - - 2269 - - 4740 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4358 - - 5691 - - 5998 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6548 - - 7097 - - 9568 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1857 - - 2251 - - 3160 - - 7820 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 222 - - 253 - - 231 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 7 - - 8 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 178 - - 180 - - 188 - - 183 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 4 - - 8 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 12 - - 17 - - 19 - - 15 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 2174 - - 2506 - - 2471 - - -3138 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4375 - - 4591 - - 7097 - - 7514 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 869 - - 781 - - 166 - - -6202 ODpotential blCL - - - 5679 - - 6316 - - 9402 - - 10578 blCL maxRH - - - 99 - - 95 - - 80 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 1880 - - 2380 - - 1860 - - 670 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 70.4 - - 73.1 - - 78.9 - - 74.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 66.3 - - 67.1 - - 62.3 - - 56.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 70.9 - - 73.5 - - 79.7 - - 79.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 65.3 - - 65.7 - - 61.5 - - 55.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 70 - - 73 - - 27 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1720 - - 2269 - - 4740 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 96 - - 82 - - 21 - - 37 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 15 - - 12 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98746 18 106 22 120 13 119 15 083 98746 91426 22 117 18 110 21 118 17 100 91426 85744 19 111 22 118 21 121 20 121 85744 80979 12 110 19 119 16 106 18 111 80979 76862 17 128 14 129 12 116 13 112 76862 73227 12 124 14 147 10 149 12 110 73227 69943 9 161 7 148 6 170 6 107 69943 66938 11 161 7 204 3 222 2 200 66938 64159 7 215 11 222 6 258 4 174 64159 61479 4 279 11 214 9 241 10 236 61479 58709 10 230 13 239 11 238 11 263 58709 55886 14 236 17 235 19 243 22 258 55886 53238 23 283 19 261 21 253 23 246 53238 50868 37 276 33 270 34 269 29 271 50868 48730 40 266 37 266 36 263 32 268 48730 46767 40 255 37 261 35 260 32 258 46767 44947 40 247 39 251 35 256 33 252 44947 43248 39 242 40 242 39 245 38 246 43248 41654 41 236 44 235 44 236 40 239 41654 40157 45 234 48 231 49 234 46 235 40157 38750 47 234 48 229 48 231 50 234 38750 37400 49 233 49 229 48 230 51 235 37400 36041 52 230 49 227 49 230 50 236 36041 34646 50 229 47 229 47 229 49 232 34646 33221 45 232 44 232 44 228 49 227 33221 31751 37 239 36 235 40 230 44 230 31751 30221 25 240 28 233 34 232 35 233 30221 28638 22 239 25 228 30 234 29 231 28638 27002 24 241 25 232 27 239 25 236 27002 25316 23 246 22 240 24 243 21 242 25316 23584 20 246 22 245 20 250 17 246 23584 21801 19 255 19 249 16 254 13 237 21801 19957 15 256 15 249 12 262 9 224 19957 18085 12 245 12 233 10 244 12 211 18085 16285 14 219 16 220 14 213 18 205 16285 14650 16 216 16 217 14 202 20 199 14650 13197 16 212 15 214 15 198 17 197 13197 11898 17 205 16 210 15 206 13 201 11898 10730 18 199 17 207 15 208 13 203 10730 9679 17 194 17 203 14*205 14 204 9679 8735 16 192 16 199 13*199 15 205 8735 7892 14 190 14 194 12 194 16 207 7892 7136 12*187 12*188 11 189 16 209 7136 6451 10*184 10*182 10 186 16 210 6451 5837 8 181 9 182 9 184 16 210 5837 5320 7 176 8 180 8 181 15 210 5320 4919 6 172 8 178 8 179 12 208 4919 4641 5 172 7 179 7 178 9 203 4641 4472 5 171 7 179 7 177 6*194 4472 4375 5 170 6 179 6 178 3*170 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography