DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/20 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 45.0 - - 47.1 - - 45.8 - - 44.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 55 - - 32 - - -5 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1900 - - 2264 - - 1337 - - 933 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6728 - - 7092 - - 6165 - - 5761 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2401 - - 3299 - - 2882 - - 2975 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 205 - - 188 - - 54 - - 41 W* B/S - - - 19 - - 9 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 4 - - 9 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 204 - - 185 - - 170 - - 204 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - 10 - - 22 - - 23 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 2356 - - 2393 - - 1793 - - 1389 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4372 - - 4699 - - 4372 - - 4372 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 1007 - - 705 - - 277 - - 75 ODpotential blCL - - - 5721 - - 6387 - - 5888 - - 5686 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 99 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 80 - - 110 - - 190 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 45.0 - - 47.1 - - 45.8 - - 44.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 41.3 - - 41.6 - - 43.7 - - 43.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 45.6 - - 47.7 - - 47.3 - - 45.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 40.2 - - 40.3 - - 43.1 - - 42.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 55 - - 32 - - -5 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1900 - - 2264 - - 1337 - - 933 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 99 - - 95 - - 102 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96533 18 312 16 320 14 034 8 349 96533 89464 4 359 3 308 11 000 12 012 89464 83992 5 097 7 080 4 318 8 013 83992 79423 5 097 9 090 2 176 4 034 79423 75472 9 122 5 111 3 166 4 033 75472 71982 10 124 6 109 3 169 3 208 71982 68823 7 188 3 221 3 324 4 200 68823 65908 4 192 13 194 9 224 14 231 65908 63197 14 269 5 218 19 184 18 204 63197 60552 24 257 12 243 16 193 15 188 60552 57771 27 241 25 233 28 228 22 234 57771 54892 23 236 39 230 37 235 39 232 54892 52164 32 253 37 237 33 236 37 219 52164 49703 52 248 35 240 36 245 37 229 49703 47480 47 241 44 247 55 243 53 234 47480 45448 36 253 52 244 64 236 62 227 45448 43569 43 255 51 241 65 233 67 221 43569 41818 45 260 51 244 59 233 65 222 41818 40180 41 262 49 247 52 236 63 229 40180 38646 38 268 49 253 54 241 68 235 38646 37210 39 271 53 256 55 242 69 234 37210 35841 43 271 56 251 60 249 65 236 35841 34477 46 275 58 252 69 252 77 244 34477 33092 49 282 61 258 68 247 81 244 33092 31691 46 286 60 262 65 244 69 243 31691 30264 41 294 50 268 60 250 57 247 30264 28800 48 300 46 269 56 260 46 254 28800 27300 54 300 44 271 51 266 42 260 27300 25759 53 306 44 274 45 271 37 263 25759 24167 50 315 45 281 42 273 32 265 24167 22527 29 308 35 303 36 280 27 270 22527 20831 5 206 30 315 31 291 22 278 20831 19074 6 214 17 276 27 296 20 286 19074 17289 11 245 15 238 21 296 19 290 17289 15573 7 284 11 238 11 282 16 290 15573 14016 6 322 7 265 9 243 12 284 14016 12634 6 306 10 271 8 237 11 257 12634 11404 8 282 12 272 7 230 10 239 11404 10306 10 272 12 271 7 231 5 221 10306 9320 10 267 11 271 8 232 4 219 9320 8436 8 270 10 269 7 226 5 226 8436 7647 6 265 8*264 7 216 7 236 7647 6943 5*256 5*253 8 202 8 241 6943 6304 4*245 3 219 9*191 9*236 6304 5733 2 221 4 173 10*184 9*229 5733 5252 2 190 5 166 10 177 8 216 5252 4879 2 178 5 164 10 168 7 197 4879 4621 2 173 5 162 8 158 6 178 4621 4463 2 171 5 162 7 151 6 169 4463 4372 2 168 4 161 5 148 4 163 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography