DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 51.9 - - 65.7 - - 70.6 - - 66.6 - - 60.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -36 - - 151 - - 147 - - -14 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1607 - - 5274 - - 3547 - - 138 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5488 - - 8135 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6435 - - 10102 - - 8375 - - 4966 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 377 - - 2976 - - 1894 - - 3208 - - 3249 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 261 - - 385 - - 54 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 6 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 7 - - 13 - - 15 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 044 - - 161 - - 171 - - 184 - - 158 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 8 - - 10 - - 9 Wind Shear Max.Converg -17 - - 7 - - 20 - - 35 - - 20 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4654 - - -4985 - - -2374 - - -3466 - - -3549 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9029 - - 11421 - - 12477 - - 11841 - - 8515 sfcLCL ODpotential -14252 - - -10985 - - -6901 - - -8040 - - -7193 ODpotential blCL 18626 - - 17420 - - 17003 - - 16415 - - 12159 blCL maxRH 69 - - 82 - - 79 - - 98 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 70 CAPE Temp@2m 51.9 - - 65.7 - - 70.6 - - 66.6 - - 60.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.2 - - 31.0 - - 30.9 - - 29.9 - - 38.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.7 - - 65.6 - - 70.5 - - 68.6 - - 62.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.9 - - 30.5 - - 30.5 - - 29.6 - - 38.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -36 - - 151 - - 147 - - -14 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1607 - - 5274 - - 3547 - - 138 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 30 - - 16 - - 92 - - 95 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96441 34 283 34 266 38 269 46 276 39 280 96441 89387 17 285 15 287 20 288 16 277 19 290 89387 83929 16 287 15 286 19 290 10 306 13 318 83929 79364 7 249 11 278 13 308 7 303 12 335 79364 75419 2 066 7 233 12 293 7 283 9 342 75419 71929 8 359 3 115 7 268 7 274 7 345 71929 68772 2 191 2 305 8 279 12 258 7 278 68772 65887 4 028 0 107 4 226 6 272 9 254 65887 63234 8 282 8 248 9 234 15 244 9 263 63234 60658 4 241 16 222 17 214 20 226 16 252 60658 57970 7 230 15 234 19 230 23 246 28 226 57970 55164 29 232 29 233 29 232 38 222 33 216 55164 52449 40 223 37 224 38 218 40 207 38 228 52449 49989 44 221 42 216 37 218 40 225 47 230 49989 47782 49 221 46 222 50 228 54 227 55 223 47782 45783 55 213 64 222 68 219 61 218 51 215 45783 43958 57 202 73 209 71 209 47 201 40 225 43958 42277 56 195 68 196 68 202 54 233 49 240 42277 40720 55 195 59 187 65 199 74 240 64 235 40720 39266 55 197 60 189 64 199 68 228 67 226 39266 37897 55 199 63 198 67 199 54 214 62 222 37897 36580 52 203 63 204 70 199 44 217 59 222 36580 35251 50 203 59 201 69 199 48 222 58 223 35251 33884 49 199 57 193 65 197 51 224 59 222 33884 32483 50 198 58 190 61 196 52 223 60 220 32483 31037 49 200 56 193 61 199 51 221 59 218 31037 29536 46 202 53 193 62 205 52 222 56 216 29536 27985 44 205 50 194 59 208 53 224 53 215 27985 26383 41 205 45 198 56 206 57 225 52 213 26383 24731 38 205 38 199 53 204 59 226 51 215 24731 23032 34 206 33 198 48 207 57 224 51 221 23032 21283 29 206 30 194 42 207 53 219 50 228 21283 19482 22 196 28 189 36 203 44 214 48 228 19482 17661 18 180 24 185 29 196 38 207 44 222 17661 15919 16 174 20 184 23 194 32 198 39 213 15919 14333 16 176 17 182 20 193 26 193 36 205 14333 12917 17 181 15 176 20 183 23 189 36 204 12917 11648 18 185 16 172 20 171 21 181 35 202 11648 10510 18 189 16 173 19*166 20 173 33 196 10510 9489 18 194 16 175 16*167 18 170 31 189 9489 8575 17 193 16 178 15 169 17*172 28 185 8575 7759 16 189 16 179 14 171 16*177 25 183 7759 7029 14 183 15*175 13 173 16 181 23 182 7029 6369 10 176 14*171 12 174 16 184 22 178 6369 5778 5 160 10 166 11 174 16 187 19 175 5778 5281 4 114 6 152 11 174 15 189 15*174 5281 4896 6 097 5 148 10 174 14 189 10*172 4896 4629 9 073 4 147 10 173 12 187 7 162 4629 4467 8*055 4 148 9 174 10 185 6 144 4467 4373 6*044 4 149 8 174 6 183 4 114 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography