DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/24 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0703z - - 1003z - - 1556z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 50.7 - - 58.0 - - 60.2 - - 52.4 - - 48.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - 55 - - 31 - - -8 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2228 - - 3650 - - 154 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5419 - - 6135 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 7056 - - 8478 - - 4982 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2186 - - 3699 - - 4505 - - 4471 - - 1038 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 233 - - 248 - - 41 - - 13 W* B/S 1 - - 29 - - 11 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 4 - - 10 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 053 - - 188 - - 183 - - 300 - - 046 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 5 - - 7 - - 6 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - -10 - - -9 - - -7 - - -18 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1600 - - 793 - - 1275 - - 157 - - -173 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5974 - - 6263 - - 7204 - - 4826 - - 4547 sfcLCL ODpotential -5573 - - -2941 - - -1465 - - -2472 - - -4174 ODpotential blCL 9947 - - 9997 - - 9943 - - 7454 - - 8548 blCL maxRH 62 - - 64 - - 67 - - 99 - - 92 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 390 - - 490 - - 290 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m 50.7 - - 58.0 - - 60.2 - - 52.4 - - 48.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.7 - - 45.5 - - 43.6 - - 46.3 - - 43.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.9 - - 58.5 - - 60.9 - - 54.0 - - 51.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.5 - - 44.2 - - 42.3 - - 44.9 - - 42.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - 55 - - 31 - - -8 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2228 - - 3650 - - 154 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 97 - - 69 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97469 17 240 17 243 23 207 26 249 17 260 97469 90129 5 273 8 263 12 255 8 239 12 251 90129 84521 2 267 5 275 11 311 0 079 5 228 84521 79888 3 162 1 339 5 323 3 335 3 340 79888 75911 4 105 3 151 2 010 2 015 3 343 75911 72395 7 015 3 157 4 320 2 342 3 308 72395 69212 10 357 4 110 3 297 2 275 8 292 69212 66294 6 306 2 265 3 340 2 212 7 293 66294 63580 3 318 2 216 5 236 6 231 4 247 63580 60928 9 270 5 319 3 252 7 248 4 278 60928 58151 12 228 12 247 21 240 23 235 18 242 58151 55276 14 252 16 232 21 223 21 227 21 248 55276 52532 27 247 33 256 26 239 28 230 31 230 52532 50058 44 243 44 246 31 252 27 228 30 225 50058 47829 46 231 47 238 39 243 33 233 26 232 47829 45788 40 230 45 239 44 231 38 228 29 232 45788 43905 40 233 44 240 46 225 39 223 32 230 43905 42157 43 232 46 238 47 226 41 223 32 225 42157 40521 46 229 49 234 47 231 41 223 31 235 40521 38987 47 226 51 231 50 233 39 227 38 231 38987 37551 48 224 53 228 54 231 42 234 43 229 37551 36179 47 222 53 225 57 227 52 238 46 226 36179 34802 45 220 56 220 60 220 65 229 53 220 34802 33396 46 221 57 214 64 212 70 216 58 214 33396 31969 46 222 52 211 66 204 61 211 54 219 31969 30511 45 220 46 209 63 200 53 209 40 225 30511 29020 40 215 46 206 57 201 38 211 32 235 29020 27496 36 207 43 205 50 205 32 201 32 244 27496 25931 33 202 40 201 43 204 21 178 27 254 25931 24326 27 205 36 193 35 197 12 140 21 255 24326 22679 17 204 30 188 26 189 10 167 15 253 22679 20982 15 201 20 182 21 185 9 181 11 266 20982 19223 16 202 17 171 19 180 10 184 9 277 19223 17438 17 208 19 177 17 173 11 188 7 272 17438 15723 16 217 17 185 18 174 10 197 6 300 15723 14168 17 215 13 196 18 174 11 203 9 328 14168 12780 16 209 11 202 16 184 11 208 10 325 12780 11538 11 205 10 198 14 195 10 209 10 299 11538 10421 6 187 9 187 12 204 9 215 11 273 10421 9417 5 152 8 172 11 209 8 232 13 260 9417 8515 6 161 7 171 10*211 7 256 12 253 8515 7710 7 172 6*184 8*211 8 275 9 245 7710 6990 7 175 5*196 6 206 9 287 4 220 6990 6340 4 170 3 201 4 186 10 295 3 151 6340 5757 3 144 1 178 3 158 11 300 5 121 5757 5267 4 107 1 107 3 151 12*300 8 088 5267 4887 6 096 1 102 3 148 12*300 11 068 4887 4624 7 076 1 129 3 147 10 300 12 057 4624 4465 5*058 1 129 3 146 9 300 9*052 4465 4373 4*049 1 139 3 145 5 305 5*041 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography