DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/12 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.4 - - 60.4 - - 65.3 - - 62.0 - - 54.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -35 - - 33 - - 62 - - -4 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1136 - - 3582 - - 2535 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 6404 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5964 - - 8410 - - 7363 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 282 - - 2073 - - 1858 - - 3206 - - 703 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 159 - - 270 - - 39 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 9 - - 7 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 7 - - 9 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 042 - - 127 - - 157 - - 157 - - 053 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 9 - - 9 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -16 - - -7 - - 7 - - 13 - - -14 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1863 - - -2397 - - -859 - - -1185 - - -1742 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6237 - - 8361 - - 9269 - - 8549 - - 6117 sfcLCL ODpotential -11398 - - -10271 - - -6832 - - -7182 - - -6052 ODpotential blCL 15772 - - 16235 - - 15242 - - 14545 - - 10426 blCL maxRH 41 - - 44 - - 51 - - 49 - - 67 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.4 - - 60.4 - - 65.3 - - 62.0 - - 54.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.6 - - 39.1 - - 39.9 - - 39.8 - - 42.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 52.6 - - 61.1 - - 65.7 - - 65.9 - - 59.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 34.4 - - 37.9 - - 38.6 - - 38.6 - - 41.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -35 - - 33 - - 62 - - -4 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1136 - - 3582 - - 2535 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96514 48 297 49 299 42 293 45 287 45 282 96514 89343 39 304 33 304 37 292 28 295 25 307 89343 83835 25 296 27 308 28 305 23 304 27 317 83835 79269 18 307 24 309 25 324 23 315 28 325 79269 75333 16 326 20 317 22 326 24 316 31 321 75333 71857 17 335 16 311 22 312 26 311 28 313 71857 68719 15 339 10 293 14 287 23 315 20 320 68719 65831 19 314 17 308 19 292 30 296 29 307 65831 63158 25 302 22 295 25 273 28 273 30 279 63158 60589 23 290 18 285 23 256 23 265 22 258 60589 57935 25 275 25 271 25 268 21 274 21 252 57935 55182 30 274 38 271 33 271 30 270 31 248 55182 52542 40 276 47 272 44 271 44 264 40 254 52542 50148 48 277 55 269 56 264 55 260 60 254 50148 47992 48 271 56 262 57 258 58 253 66 242 47992 46034 45 272 49 261 51 257 52 249 63 233 46034 44233 41 284 42 273 51 266 53 255 58 239 44233 42559 46 297 47 286 56 275 57 263 56 249 42559 40995 50 300 49 289 54 275 55 262 56 249 40995 39523 47 306 47 290 50 273 48 258 52 242 39523 38134 39 313 39 297 44 274 45 256 48 238 38134 36799 27 316 26 309 31 275 40 254 45 237 36799 35454 23 315 19 305 23 272 34 249 40 237 35454 34069 24 315 22 294 26 267 34 246 35 236 34069 32648 22 312 23 289 28 269 30 252 33 236 32648 31178 17 307 19 288 25 270 27 260 31 238 31178 29654 16 320 14 301 18 270 23 256 24 232 29654 28075 11 330 12 319 9 295 17 246 19 222 28075 26445 5 139 6 215 10 229 15 232 18 214 26445 24775 7 186 10 196 11 204 17 221 18 218 24775 23075 13 205 14 203 15 198 20 207 22 215 23075 21332 13 192 14 196 17 184 22 198 25 207 21332 19531 12 184 14 185 18 176 23 191 27 200 19531 17700 12 182 15 188 19 184 23 184 28 192 17700 15936 12 180 17 196 19 188 22 180 27 184 15936 14332 11 174 16 194 18 184 21 174 26 173 14332 12909 11 165 13 186 16 176 20 167 25 163 12909 11642 11 157 13 164 15 164 19 161 23 159 11642 10509 13 147 15 139 16 149 18 153 20 160 10509 9493 14 138 15 133 15 145 16 147 18 163 9493 8581 13 139 14 139 14*148 15 144 17 163 8581 7766 13 144 14 147 12*153 13*146 15 161 7766 7036 14 149 13 150 11 158 12*152 14 155 7036 6374 13 152 12*150 9 160 11 156 12 147 6374 5782 10 147 8*144 6 158 10 159 11 135 5782 5283 8 130 4 124 5 156 9 160 9 117 5283 4897 10 109 2 110 4 153 8 159 9 095 4897 4629 9 077 2 107 4 152 6 155 10 074 4629 4466 9*054 1 111 3 154 5 147 8*064 4466 4373 6*042 1 109 3 152 3 144 6*053 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography