DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/22 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 60.2 - - 60.4 - - - - - 56.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 19 - - 19 - - - - - 11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 56 - - 281 - - - - - 436 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4357 - - 4357 - - - - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4884 - - 5109 - - - - - 5264 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1523 - - 1575 - - - - - 2419 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 43 - - 78 - - - - - 75 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 1 - - - - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 13 - - 14 - - - - - 11 BL Wind Direction - - - 184 - - 196 - - - - - 205 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 8 - - - - - 7 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 38 - - 41 - - - - - 29 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 511 - - 736 - - - - - 891 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4374 - - 4373 - - - - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 368 - - 125 - - - - - 272 ODpotential blCL - - - 4516 - - 4984 - - - - - 4992 blCL maxRH - - - 101 - - 100 - - - - - 99 maxRH CAPE - - - 920 - - 920 - - - - - 420 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 60.2 - - 60.4 - - - - - 56.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 60.0 - - 59.4 - - - - - 55.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 61.2 - - 61.3 - - - - - 57.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 59.8 - - 59.0 - - - - - 55.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 19 - - 19 - - - - - 11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 56 - - 281 - - - - - 436 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 103 - - 99 - - - - - 95 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 13 - - 12 - - - - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97287 6 262 11 227 13 280 97287 90041 4 272 2 272 2 254 90041 84509 2 332 2 041 7 018 84509 79939 3 028 0 070 10 015 79939 75985 3 329 4 337 12 011 75985 72478 2 065 4 324 14 006 72478 69302 6 045 7 030 8 337 69302 66378 1 187 3 335 3 021 66378 63668 4 273 4 320 4 297 63668 61039 12 239 10 261 5 326 61039 58284 12 242 12 235 12 234 58284 55439 23 209 18 221 24 232 55439 52729 37 207 37 220 28 234 52729 50281 40 213 44 215 37 231 50281 48077 43 212 42 214 42 226 48077 46060 45 215 43 215 48 226 46060 44195 53 220 51 217 56 226 44195 42463 61 217 60 215 66 223 42463 40847 66 211 68 211 73 218 40847 39335 67 207 73 207 79 214 39335 37922 68 205 74 204 83 210 37922 36572 69 205 75 203 85 208 36572 35220 71 206 76 204 84 208 35220 33837 73 208 76 206 85 210 33837 32427 72 208 74 206 87 211 32427 30975 67 207 71 205 87 210 30975 29470 62 207 67 204 86 209 29470 27915 61 209 65 204 85 208 27915 26311 62 207 64 204 84 207 26311 24661 65 207 65 204 84 207 24661 22968 65 205 65 204 84 207 22968 21226 64 205 61 202 81 207 21226 19433 63 204 62 201 72 205 19433 17622 58 201 61 201 63 202 17622 15884 54 196 57 200 57 201 15884 14302 51 196 53 200 49 200 14302 12890 50 198 49 201 42 202 12890 11626 47 199 45 203 39 205 11626 10491 43 197 42 202 36 207 10491 9473 39 195 39 202 32 210 9473 8560 33 191 35 202 27 213 8560 7747 28 187 30 203 23 215 7747 7020 25 187 26 204 21 216 7020 6362 23 188 24 203 20 216 6362 5774 24 189 24 202 20 215 5774 5278 21 188 20*200 17*213 5278 4894 18*186 17*198 14*209 4894 4628 16*184 14 195 11 205 4628 4466 14 184 13 194 10 202 4466 4373 10 183 9 194 7 197 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography