DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/10 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.7 - - 60.3 - - 66.0 - - 62.3 - - 53.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -20 - - 31 - - 25 - - -1 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 602 - - 1891 - - 606 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5430 - - 6719 - - 5434 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 933 - - 1487 - - 3019 - - 3819 - - 423 Hgt.Variab. W* 11 - - 127 - - 180 - - 18 - - 14 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 7 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 020 - - 313 - - 306 - - 324 - - 033 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 5 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -15 - - -8 - - -10 - - -4 - - -17 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3254 - - -2255 - - -1656 - - -1666 - - -2098 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7628 - - 7686 - - 8375 - - 7100 - - 6472 sfcLCL ODpotential -12702 - - -8637 - - -6104 - - -6566 - - -9296 ODpotential blCL 17076 - - 14067 - - 12823 - - 12000 - - 13670 blCL maxRH 62 - - 67 - - 58 - - 53 - - 48 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.7 - - 60.3 - - 66.0 - - 62.3 - - 53.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.1 - - 42.0 - - 44.5 - - 46.4 - - 40.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.9 - - 61.0 - - 66.7 - - 66.4 - - 58.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.0 - - 40.8 - - 43.2 - - 45.1 - - 39.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -20 - - 31 - - 25 - - -1 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 602 - - 1891 - - 606 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96605 56 281 57 276 50 269 48 279 42 276 96605 89435 36 286 39 286 32 285 32 284 29 296 89435 83941 28 290 25 296 30 293 26 288 26 311 83941 79396 22 298 17 306 23 281 24 297 25 316 79396 75471 25 306 18 305 19 286 24 312 27 320 75471 71993 29 301 23 298 22 290 24 309 26 315 71993 68847 27 290 26 293 20 305 21 305 20 311 68847 65963 28 285 27 294 25 310 20 309 19 323 65963 63296 29 295 30 294 29 306 25 312 24 328 63296 60719 33 300 32 294 30 303 27 311 27 327 60719 58031 29 301 30 293 29 300 27 312 26 318 58031 55235 23 301 27 294 28 297 25 308 26 307 55235 52560 26 306 27 308 28 301 24 307 29 302 52560 50139 32 311 31 312 29 303 26 310 26 308 50139 47948 34 311 32 305 29 303 29 321 36 328 47948 45945 34 296 29 292 31 303 38 333 30 323 45945 44104 36 277 30 291 34 300 34 317 25 312 44104 42404 38 265 36 276 33 285 33 309 32 318 42404 40824 35 264 36 266 35 277 35 285 37 312 40824 39351 31 267 33 261 39 266 35 276 30 303 39351 37982 26 267 30 260 36 260 37 260 31 272 37982 36679 23 269 25 259 33 255 35 257 37 256 36679 35369 21 273 22 253 30 253 31 255 36 254 35369 34020 20 272 23 252 29 262 27 256 33 255 34020 32635 19 264 23 257 27 272 26 266 29 264 32635 31203 19 257 19 258 24 274 22 273 24 270 31203 29714 16 259 18 260 22 269 21 269 21 271 29714 28170 15 271 18 268 22 266 20 266 20 270 28170 26571 14 271 17 267 21 264 19 266 17 271 26571 24921 9 264 12 257 17 258 17 266 14 269 24921 23221 6 228 11 230 15 248 16 262 14 269 23221 21467 6 230 10 233 13 249 15 261 11 279 21467 19655 7 259 7 258 9 272 10 275 5 316 19655 17817 8 286 7 300 7 317 5 320 4 047 17817 16048 7 308 6 323 5 329 5 353 7 068 16048 14438 7 333 4 340 2 330 4 353 9 055 14438 13000 8 345 4 002 2 007 4 350 10 039 13000 11715 8 342 4 002 3 022 5 354 12 041 11715 10563 7 326 5 337 5 017 5 015 12 045 10563 9531 6 313 7 325 8 020 7 041 9 044 9531 8607 5 311 8 325 10 021 9 046 5 041 8607 7783 4 310 7 327 9 013 8 047 2 035 7783 7047 2 320 6 331 8*358 6 040 2 049 7047 6380 2 355 6 337 6*339 4 022 4 055 6380 5784 2 006 5*344 5 313 4*352 9 058 5784 5282 2 038 4*342 4 297 3*330 15 062 5282 4895 3 042 3 317 4 291 3 322 18 060 4895 4629 3 033 3 294 4 288 3 322 16 052 4629 4466 6*023 2 287 4 286 2 321 11*044 4466 4373 5*020 2 284 3 285 1 328 6*033 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography