DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 01/21 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.0 - - 52.3 - - 59.8 - - 57.6 - - 48.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -12 - - 87 - - 137 - - -2 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 379 - - 2064 - - 968 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 5765 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 5207 - - 6892 - - 5796 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1079 - - 1069 - - 1791 - - 2680 - - 2294 Hgt.Variab. W* 3 - - 135 - - 275 - - 19 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 10 - - 15 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 003 - - 258 - - 196 - - 145 - - 055 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -13 - - 5 - - 9 - - 3 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -10078 - - -8710 - - -9157 - - -9229 - - -8600 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 14451 - - 13918 - - 16050 - - 15026 - - 12975 sfcLCL ODpotential -21572 - - -17449 - - -16669 - - -17050 - - -17126 ODpotential blCL 25945 - - 22656 - - 23561 - - 22846 - - 21500 blCL maxRH 61 - - 86 - - 85 - - 75 - - 85 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.0 - - 52.3 - - 59.8 - - 57.6 - - 48.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m -5.4 - - 7.3 - - 4.8 - - 7.4 - - 7.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.4 - - 52.7 - - 59.8 - - 59.9 - - 55.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot -6.2 - - 6.3 - - 3.8 - - 6.4 - - 6.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -12 - - 87 - - 137 - - -2 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 379 - - 2064 - - 968 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 43 - - 40 - - 0 - - 39 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95874 9 292 16 332 11 235 18 236 33 281 95874 88866 7 007 12 336 2 215 9 286 18 298 88866 83442 3 033 9 299 8 344 11 329 15 002 83442 78936 7 030 11 256 18 326 14 345 14 010 78936 75034 13 358 9 233 20 315 18 341 15 005 75034 71579 18 354 9 328 19 313 25 336 25 348 71579 68469 22 355 14 360 15 322 23 335 25 344 68469 65621 32 339 25 352 22 337 23 337 26 334 65621 62985 34 329 26 338 27 339 23 335 28 327 62985 60424 39 324 32 332 33 332 29 333 33 326 60424 57735 42 322 39 324 39 323 39 314 40 321 57735 54920 46 319 43 316 44 317 42 303 44 311 54920 52212 50 313 46 312 47 312 46 304 46 308 52212 49757 54 313 48 310 48 307 53 301 51 306 49757 47543 61 313 54 311 54 306 57 303 52 302 47543 45518 61 307 60 306 60 301 61 298 54 301 45518 43644 62 305 60 298 58 296 62 291 59 296 43644 41912 63 297 57 305 57 300 67 289 67 287 41912 40325 63 298 66 295 67 289 71 281 78 277 40325 38870 67 295 66 281 70 284 67 282 78 271 38870 37519 64 296 56 275 67 283 72 288 72 271 37519 36225 61 298 52 278 64 278 79 285 71 275 36225 34920 55 297 52 281 63 275 75 284 75 276 34920 33579 50 297 53 287 59 276 67 283 73 277 33579 32206 44 298 54 291 53 279 61 280 65 277 32206 30787 41 300 52 294 52 281 52 277 54 274 30787 29312 41 302 47 299 49 286 48 281 47 278 29312 27780 43 304 40 298 45 290 41 288 41 282 27780 26197 42 307 37 296 37 296 32 296 34 279 26197 24567 36 309 32 300 32 294 27 284 28 273 24567 22893 29 318 24 312 30 292 25 280 25 268 22893 21170 23 304 20 307 23 290 22 293 23 272 21170 19390 19 286 19 302 18 294 21 296 17 284 19390 17583 15 287 17 300 17 305 18 291 14 303 17583 15842 12 288 13 290 13 307 14 306 14 306 15842 14254 9 288 11 285 10 296 12 315 12 302 14254 12835 7 291 8 286 8 295 9 308 10 314 12835 11567 4 291 6 278 7 283 7 304 8 333 11567 10433 2 278 4 254 6 259 5 286 6 349 10433 9418 1 203 4 222 7 241 6 266 4 337 9418 8512 2 160 4 193 6 226 6 251 3 292 8512 7706 3 148 3 167 5 213 6 246 3 258 7706 6987 3 130 3 141 4*205 5 240 3 234 6987 6336 2 104 4 119 4*203 3*220 3 207 6336 5755 2 068 4 105 3 200 2*179 3 175 5755 5265 1 065 2*081 3 197 2 145 3 127 5265 4886 2 057 2*279 3 195 2 136 4 100 4886 4624 4 032 3 256 3 191 3 136 4 079 4624 4464 4*009 3 253 3 189 2 136 4*062 4464 4373 4*003 3 252 3 189 2 134 4*052 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography