DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/03 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.5 - - 57.1 - - 61.1 - - 58.6 - - 54.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -10 - - 36 - - 22 - - -1 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 652 - - 1009 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5480 - - 5837 - - 4375 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 672 - - 1383 - - 1809 - - 2997 - - 2665 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 137 - - 144 - - 4 - - 5 W* B/S 1 - - 20 - - 30 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 332 - - 077 - - 108 - - 110 - - 050 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - -2 - - -11 - - 1 - - -9 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1720 - - -724 - - -468 - - 1 - - -322 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6094 - - 6204 - - 6305 - - 4374 - - 4696 sfcLCL ODpotential -12528 - - -9166 - - -8962 - - -5272 - - -7633 ODpotential blCL 16902 - - 14646 - - 14799 - - 9647 - - 12007 blCL maxRH 73 - - 75 - - 88 - - 90 - - 69 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.5 - - 57.1 - - 61.1 - - 58.6 - - 54.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.2 - - 45.1 - - 48.5 - - 54.2 - - 49.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.2 - - 57.9 - - 62.0 - - 61.1 - - 60.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.0 - - 43.9 - - 47.2 - - 52.8 - - 48.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -10 - - 36 - - 22 - - -1 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 652 - - 1009 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 2 - - 52 - - 60 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 7 - - 6 - - 10 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96743 46 272 63 269 64 275 53 279 53 272 96743 89662 38 284 41 283 37 293 35 289 34 284 89662 84200 29 281 25 294 21 303 23 293 26 298 84200 79659 11 306 20 296 12 281 19 276 25 319 79659 75734 13 358 6 330 13 248 17 262 27 307 75734 72246 13 338 8 041 2 229 3 217 13 295 72246 69062 10 293 6 342 1 276 2 252 12 268 69062 66119 10 283 10 296 10 260 10 274 10 275 66119 63384 13 269 17 280 19 276 13 286 15 271 63384 60737 12 252 19 260 24 265 25 277 23 274 60737 57991 15 281 26 268 29 264 32 272 30 282 57991 55144 42 281 43 289 36 275 37 276 35 279 55144 52444 62 277 64 283 70 284 58 284 48 282 52444 50036 73 275 78 272 87 275 70 280 60 279 50036 47888 82 285 85 274 85 279 87 286 82 281 47888 45952 92 292 98 285 101 289 106 286 106 281 45952 44181 98 292 108 289 110 289 110 283 117 278 44181 42532 97 291 107 287 108 284 106 279 116 274 42532 40982 96 290 104 285 105 280 103 276 114 272 40982 39520 92 290 99 282 104 279 105 273 111 269 39520 38139 89 289 96 282 100 279 105 272 110 267 38139 36807 87 290 94 285 98 278 101 271 109 266 36807 35460 83 292 90 286 96 279 98 272 109 266 35460 34074 79 294 87 285 94 280 97 274 107 268 34074 32659 75 294 78 284 89 281 93 274 97 273 32659 31208 68 293 68 281 78 280 81 274 82 278 31208 29710 61 290 64 280 66 278 70 274 72 278 29710 28161 54 286 61 280 59 277 65 270 67 272 28161 26561 51 285 57 280 57 275 61 266 66 267 26561 24908 52 288 52 281 54 272 58 265 65 266 24908 23204 49 293 44 282 48 272 53 269 62 267 23204 21445 42 301 36 284 38 271 44 275 55 269 21445 19628 33 309 28 283 30 267 33 278 43 268 19628 17786 29 315 23 283 25 263 27 273 32 261 17786 16016 26 313 20 286 20 264 24 266 27 255 16016 14404 24 310 18 294 16 271 23 259 27 255 14404 12966 21 315 15 303 12 277 21 253 25 255 12966 11680 18 328 11 308 9 276 18 249 22 252 11680 10530 15 344 6 304 7 262 14 244 20 244 10530 9501 13 004 1 275 6 238 10 230 17 230 9501 8582 11 024 4 100 5 203 8 195 15 212 8582 7764 7 044 7 104 6 169 8 165 15 196 7764 7033 4 075 8 118 7 147 9 153 14 187 7033 6372 5 105 7 113 5*132 8 148 11 185 6372 5781 8 093 6*100 3*111 5 144 7 186 5781 5283 12 081 4*079 2 090 4 146 4 177 5283 4897 12 068 1 069 0 338 2 135 2 129 4897 4630 9 044 0 069 0 239 1 112 3 073 4630 4467 5*020 0 166 1 228 1*110 4*053 4467 4373 3*332 0 209 1 227 1*107 4*048 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography