DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 01/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.8 - - 55.8 - - 64.0 - - 62.3 - - 54.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -29 - - 81 - - 155 - - -1 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 555 - - 1936 - - 1559 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 5738 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 5383 - - 6764 - - 6387 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 343 - - 1122 - - 1366 - - 2269 - - 2932 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 151 - - 281 - - 23 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 14 - - 18 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 004 - - 283 - - 249 - - 290 - - 083 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 2 - - 6 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -17 - - -8 - - 7 - - -2 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6667 - - -6922 - - -8117 - - -8335 - - -8436 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11040 - - 12305 - - 14882 - - 14723 - - 12811 sfcLCL ODpotential -17948 - - -15548 - - -14613 - - -14818 - - -16275 ODpotential blCL 22321 - - 20931 - - 21377 - - 21205 - - 20649 blCL maxRH 71 - - 79 - - 85 - - 74 - - 81 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.8 - - 55.8 - - 64.0 - - 62.3 - - 54.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 10.1 - - 17.8 - - 14.3 - - 13.4 - - 14.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.4 - - 56.1 - - 63.9 - - 65.2 - - 61.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 9.0 - - 16.7 - - 13.2 - - 12.3 - - 13.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -29 - - 81 - - 155 - - -1 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 555 - - 1936 - - 1559 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 15 - - 41 - - 0 - - 23 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96495 43 075 21 063 29 032 26 062 18 056 96495 89425 35 080 28 069 25 054 28 075 16 085 89425 83897 24 061 26 070 22 082 24 072 21 061 83897 79302 22 051 20 088 16 086 18 060 15 050 79302 75330 17 050 15 068 15 073 11 062 14 026 75330 71800 12 065 13 055 12 044 9 027 14 010 71800 68592 12 030 12 020 17 019 14 014 15 014 68592 65643 10 349 15 344 23 340 26 356 24 006 65643 62926 22 007 21 356 21 342 24 339 26 347 62926 60311 29 349 27 354 22 350 26 332 27 333 60311 57597 31 331 28 333 29 334 30 325 26 327 57597 54781 34 320 30 324 30 328 32 325 32 329 54781 52089 34 320 33 323 34 332 38 321 40 323 52089 49677 37 320 37 326 41 326 46 317 46 320 49677 47523 40 321 45 325 48 318 51 315 53 320 47523 45566 43 320 52 323 52 315 54 315 57 320 45566 43759 45 322 54 322 52 312 55 312 57 315 43759 42072 46 318 49 316 51 308 52 308 55 311 42072 40492 44 316 45 306 48 297 50 305 51 305 40492 39014 48 316 41 301 48 289 54 293 53 293 39014 37644 45 310 40 300 49 289 59 288 57 289 37644 36351 40 311 41 300 49 290 57 287 61 290 36351 35055 35 316 38 296 47 295 52 288 59 289 35055 33723 34 316 33 294 45 296 50 289 54 291 33723 32357 37 313 29 300 42 298 46 296 50 291 32357 30945 40 308 32 309 36 299 43 302 48 290 30945 29476 37 307 38 305 35 302 41 301 46 294 29476 27951 33 308 37 299 40 298 39 298 43 297 27951 26371 33 309 34 298 42 294 37 299 40 299 26371 24740 31 313 32 300 38 296 38 301 37 297 24740 23061 28 319 30 305 33 300 37 302 36 296 23061 21329 26 324 27 307 30 301 35 302 34 292 21329 19535 27 333 26 311 27 299 32 304 34 291 19535 17712 28 340 24 317 25 301 31 306 33 295 17712 15956 25 345 22 322 24 304 30 308 31 301 15956 14354 20 346 19 325 22 307 27 311 28 306 14354 12924 17 342 17 327 20 310 23 315 26 307 12924 11646 14 337 16 326 18 314 19 319 23 309 11646 10502 11 330 15 326 16 318 16 322 21 311 10502 9478 9 328 12 325 13 323 12 321 16 310 9478 8564 7 332 9 326 9 326 10 313 11 302 8564 7750 3 356 5 329 5 325 8 302 8 291 7750 7022 2 060 2 009 3*306 7*298 7 279 7022 6363 2 102 3 078 3*275 6*296 5 264 6363 5774 2 110 3*065 3 260 4 295 4 243 5774 5277 3 079 2*022 3 246 3 290 3 218 5277 4894 6 057 2 290 3 239 2 281 2 189 4894 4628 8 033 3 268 3 236 1 267 2 129 4628 4466 8*016 3 260 3 233 1 250 2*092 4466 4373 6*004 3 258 3 232 0 220 2*078 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography