DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/21 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.3 - - 62.9 - - 64.2 - - 61.7 - - 60.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 40 - - 22 - - 4 - - 7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 594 - - 623 - - 359 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4375 - - 5422 - - 5451 - - 5187 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2242 - - 1100 - - 1373 - - 1421 - - 1675 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 130 - - 110 - - 50 - - 20 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 054 - - 099 - - 123 - - 171 - - 160 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 7 - - 7 - - 6 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - -8 - - 4 - - 24 - - 10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 2 - - 1049 - - 1077 - - 814 - - 2 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4374 - - 4374 - - 4374 - - 4374 - - 4374 sfcLCL ODpotential -1096 - - -1020 - - -346 - - 387 - - -93 ODpotential blCL 5471 - - 6442 - - 5797 - - 4800 - - 4468 blCL maxRH 100 - - 99 - - 94 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 820 - - 750 - - 1260 - - 900 - - 970 CAPE Temp@2m 61.3 - - 62.9 - - 64.2 - - 61.7 - - 60.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 59.5 - - 60.2 - - 61.7 - - 60.7 - - 60.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 62.6 - - 63.5 - - 65.1 - - 62.8 - - 61.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 59.0 - - 59.3 - - 60.9 - - 60.5 - - 60.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 40 - - 22 - - 4 - - 7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 594 - - 623 - - 359 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 99 - - 94 - - 76 - - 101 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 12 - - 13 - - 13 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97522 12 312 13 320 16 307 12 296 25 287 97522 90238 16 314 17 320 10 304 11 335 10 293 90238 84643 10 320 10 302 10 315 11 322 5 333 84643 80020 9 306 8 285 9 305 14 323 10 011 80020 76049 4 287 5 254 7 266 11 311 10 000 76049 72550 2 013 6 177 3 222 6 303 8 019 72550 69378 3 186 5 180 6 233 9 267 5 322 69378 66456 3 235 4 243 6 244 2 298 4 311 66456 63739 9 214 10 241 12 264 12 257 7 314 63739 61107 17 204 15 194 9 227 14 226 8 234 61107 58364 18 207 20 206 25 209 26 219 16 228 58364 55527 35 228 32 222 34 216 37 217 37 226 55527 52836 49 223 47 228 48 224 46 220 45 228 52836 50418 56 219 57 220 55 222 52 223 50 228 50418 48244 58 220 62 224 60 225 55 227 53 226 48244 46264 61 224 70 225 60 227 54 227 53 224 46264 44445 66 225 70 223 55 228 53 225 52 224 44445 42759 70 225 64 223 54 229 55 224 54 225 42759 41183 73 224 59 224 55 225 56 223 55 223 41183 39702 73 224 62 225 54 223 56 220 56 219 39702 38308 72 225 71 223 53 224 54 219 58 216 38308 36971 74 227 76 217 60 227 57 222 59 215 36971 35626 78 227 77 215 74 224 64 223 60 215 35626 34244 77 225 78 217 75 215 63 219 62 218 34244 32834 70 223 82 222 72 214 55 214 67 218 32834 31382 69 225 77 224 72 220 54 214 71 214 31382 29878 70 233 68 221 71 222 55 213 68 209 29878 28318 64 236 62 222 62 220 53 213 64 210 28318 26702 57 231 62 225 63 223 54 213 61 213 26702 25034 54 227 59 225 58 224 57 215 60 212 25034 23323 52 220 54 221 54 218 57 215 61 207 23323 21562 52 215 55 217 53 213 55 214 62 204 21562 19744 52 214 56 215 55 213 56 217 58 205 19744 17899 46 213 51 214 52 212 58 216 51 208 17899 16124 40 210 45 212 48 210 56 214 44 210 16124 14506 38 205 42 207 46 208 50 212 39 209 14506 13061 38 202 42 202 45 205 43 210 37 209 13061 11768 38 200 42 197 45 202 39 207 35 210 11768 10609 36 199 41 194 44 200 35 206 33 209 10609 9569 32 196 39 192 39 198 29 204 30 208 9569 8637 27 186 34 187 33 196 23 198 25 206 8637 7807 23 170 29 179 27 191 17 185 20 201 7807 7065 21 162 24 171 22 185 15 180 16 195 7065 6394 17 159 19 165 15 180 15 185 14 193 6394 5794 14 162 13*160 12*177 17 192 14 195 5794 5291 9 155 8*137 8*158 15*186 11 190 5291 4902 5 125 6 099 6 123 12*177 7 180 4902 4632 4 083 6 081 5 106 10 170 5 167 4632 4468 4*049 6 078 5 100 8 167 4*158 4468 4374 4*037 5 075 5 096 6 164 4*153 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography