DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 09/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 80.4 - - 84.7 - - 83.9 - - 75.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 368 - - 392 - - 116 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 4905 - - 8407 - - 7823 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 8300 - - 11124 - - 9870 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top - - - 9733 - - 13235 - - 12651 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2348 - - 1297 - - 2205 - - 7859 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 508 - - 620 - - 405 - - 3 W* B/S - - - 8 - - 8 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 12 - - 14 - - 13 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 193 - - 201 - - 204 - - 160 Direction Wind Shear - - - 11 - - 8 - - 5 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 21 - - 35 - - 31 - - 13 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 174 - - 2288 - - 930 - - -5116 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9560 - - 10947 - - 11722 - - 9493 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2087 - - -491 - - -1076 - - -8334 ODpotential blCL - - - 11820 - - 13726 - - 13727 - - 12710 blCL maxRH - - - 66 - - 63 - - 61 - - 47 maxRH CAPE - - - 720 - - 830 - - 400 - - 350 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 80.4 - - 84.7 - - 83.9 - - 75.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 53.4 - - 51.5 - - 47.4 - - 49.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 79.1 - - 83.4 - - 83.9 - - 79.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 53.2 - - 51.3 - - 47.2 - - 48.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 368 - - 392 - - 116 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 4905 - - 8407 - - 7823 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 7 - - 8 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98647 21 114 17 097 11 057 18 063 98647 91268 22 091 21 092 21 088 18 080 91268 85589 21 095 26 085 25 078 25 074 85589 80892 21 088 21 091 23 066 25 065 80892 76844 21 085 18 088 19 061 20 069 76844 73261 23 096 16 094 15 072 18 069 73261 70022 19 080 15 088 13 091 15 063 70022 67039 9 096 10 066 10 095 10 068 67039 64279 11 098 6 109 5 115 5 048 64279 61608 3 050 1 167 3 348 7 355 61608 58835 7 323 3 292 9 290 9 303 58835 55985 16 277 9 303 8 313 8 311 55985 53271 24 247 19 276 18 281 20 285 53271 50830 22 250 26 265 28 274 28 288 50830 48642 32 263 34 263 34 271 34 279 48642 46650 39 262 38 257 36 268 35 271 46650 44814 43 259 37 252 36 268 35 268 44814 43106 44 255 37 249 37 263 35 267 43106 41506 44 248 38 247 36 259 35 266 41506 40001 44 244 39 245 36 258 34 265 40001 38585 43 239 40 242 36 256 33 263 38585 37225 42 236 38 237 37 251 32 261 37225 35859 40 237 37 234 36 248 31 256 35859 34460 40 239 36 234 34 246 31 255 34460 33036 40 240 33 236 33 247 30 255 33036 31572 36 241 31 241 33 248 28 255 31572 30056 33 245 30 247 33 248 27 254 30056 28487 31 246 31 252 33 250 28 250 28487 26865 29 246 31 255 33 253 30 248 26865 25197 25 243 29 251 31 251 30 247 25197 23480 22 240 27 243 30 243 30 244 23480 21710 24 241 29 238 30 240 30 242 21710 19880 26 236 32 233 29 239 29 241 19880 18026 25 227 31 232 27 239 27 241 18026 16246 23 221 26 233 23 239 23 241 16246 14625 21 220 21*232 18 235 19 240 14625 13178 20 219 15*221 13*224 15 234 13178 11882 19 219 14 210 12*215 12 226 11882 10716 19*218 14 206 12 211 11 220 10716 9667 18*212 15 203 13 209 11 214 9667 8726 15 202 15 201 13 206 12 210 8726 7884 14 195 15 198 13 203 12 208 7884 7129 12 190 15 196 13 200 13 207 7129 6445 11 185 15 194 13 198 13 206 6445 5834 10 183 15 192 13 197 13 205 5834 5317 10 183 15 190 13 195 12 201 5317 4918 9 182 14 190 13 195 10 194 4918 4640 9 182 14 189 12 194 8 181 4640 4472 9 183 13 189 12 194 6*168 4472 4375 8 183 12 189 10 194 4*152 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography