DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 12/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.4 - - 58.4 - - 66.9 - - 62.3 - - 54.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -35 - - 60 - - 102 - - -1 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 227 - - 1313 - - 402 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 5055 - - 6141 - - 5230 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 248 - - 1196 - - 2319 - - 3514 - - 652 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 103 - - 216 - - 10 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 7 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 5 - - 5 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 003 - - 286 - - 272 - - 152 - - 021 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -18 - - 2 - - 6 - - 3 - - -14 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5874 - - -6204 - - -8507 - - -8954 - - -8304 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10247 - - 11260 - - 14649 - - 14185 - - 12679 sfcLCL ODpotential -17196 - - -15234 - - -15589 - - -17687 - - -18157 ODpotential blCL 21569 - - 20289 - - 21730 - - 22917 - - 22531 blCL maxRH 60 - - 55 - - 48 - - 55 - - 69 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.4 - - 58.4 - - 66.9 - - 62.3 - - 54.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 15.9 - - 24.9 - - 18.3 - - 16.0 - - 14.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.9 - - 59.0 - - 67.0 - - 67.7 - - 60.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 14.8 - - 23.7 - - 17.2 - - 15.0 - - 14.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -35 - - 60 - - 102 - - -1 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 227 - - 1313 - - 402 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96282 8 326 11 330 10 330 12 328 12 319 96282 89368 10 056 12 070 12 037 12 003 16 354 89368 83971 18 076 16 088 11 050 11 034 17 011 83971 79434 20 083 17 094 9 077 12 055 9 018 79434 75497 15 087 18 112 11 113 10 072 3 017 75497 72011 7 086 9 101 9 084 6 090 6 340 72011 68862 3 304 5 019 5 023 7 004 13 350 68862 65985 5 288 7 338 5 302 13 315 18 330 65985 63347 10 354 13 350 7 327 12 299 16 305 63347 60812 22 335 22 336 19 333 15 314 15 294 60812 58154 21 315 26 315 24 317 22 311 18 302 58154 55382 23 327 30 321 33 321 32 314 33 308 55382 52729 36 330 36 320 43 315 46 316 41 311 52729 50322 38 326 33 313 41 303 46 307 46 310 50322 48138 34 337 23 327 29 305 39 303 46 302 48138 46131 44 350 40 354 39 335 42 321 43 306 46131 44274 60 350 71 348 66 337 55 330 42 327 44274 42548 73 346 88 339 87 331 76 335 68 338 42548 40944 57 349 71 334 85 326 80 331 87 335 40944 39450 55 005 49 321 59 327 67 327 75 336 39450 38059 87 010 38 353 49 335 51 329 59 335 38059 36741 102 008 61 011 46 344 49 334 58 329 36741 35429 98 007 71 004 46 351 56 335 63 327 35429 34080 89 009 71 357 47 349 61 333 62 330 34080 32693 76 012 70 353 51 342 60 330 57 334 32693 31257 62 012 70 355 57 337 55 329 55 333 31257 29761 47 356 57 357 59 336 49 329 53 328 29761 28211 42 343 45 350 63 336 48 331 44 322 28211 26605 39 340 43 339 63 338 52 331 37 322 26605 24948 35 339 44 335 56 339 55 329 39 325 24948 23241 29 350 43 337 48 334 51 327 42 324 23241 21481 30 001 37 339 43 336 48 330 41 326 21481 19660 30 003 32 349 33 342 42 335 38 333 19660 17813 30 004 28 001 25 340 32 334 35 339 17813 16037 29 006 25 007 21 345 25 329 33 339 16037 14420 27 006 24 009 18 356 21 331 29 332 14420 12979 23 004 23 010 18 003 18 339 24 328 12979 11692 18 356 21 008 18 007 17 350 18 331 11692 10540 14 349 18 005 19 012 16 001 13 343 10540 9507 12 349 14 001 18 015 13 010 10 001 9507 8585 10 353 11 359 14 020 8 016 6 013 8585 7764 8 359 9 005 10 028 4 025 3 005 7764 7032 5 358 7 019 6 028 2 050 1 359 7032 6369 3 350 6 029 3*002 1 146 2 035 6369 5777 2 026 4 034 4*296 1 197 5 049 5777 5279 5 042 3*359 6 272 2*168 8 053 5279 4894 8 041 5*304 6 270 2*152 10 052 4894 4628 9 026 6 283 6 267 2 154 10 042 4628 4466 9*014 5 281 6 265 2 153 8*032 4466 4373 7*003 5 278 5 264 2 145 5*021 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography