DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 02/22 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 43.4 - - 57.3 - - 63.9 - - 65.3 - - 54.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 194 - - 273 - - 47 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2058 - - 3923 - - 4270 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5910 - - 7422 - - 6316 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6886 - - 8751 - - 9098 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1061 - - 1145 - - 941 - - 1210 - - 734 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 307 - - 427 - - 246 - - 6 W* B/S 0 - - 11 - - 12 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 043 - - 119 - - 116 - - 101 - - 042 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -13 - - 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - -16 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6545 - - -5758 - - -4688 - - -3822 - - -6265 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10918 - - 12645 - - 13440 - - 12921 - - 10639 sfcLCL ODpotential -16974 - - -13155 - - -10560 - - -8862 - - -13522 ODpotential blCL 21347 - - 20041 - - 19311 - - 17960 - - 17896 blCL maxRH 86 - - 83 - - 87 - - 69 - - 68 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 43.4 - - 57.3 - - 63.9 - - 65.3 - - 54.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 12.0 - - 17.7 - - 20.5 - - 24.1 - - 23.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.8 - - 57.0 - - 63.2 - - 65.8 - - 58.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 11.7 - - 17.2 - - 19.7 - - 23.7 - - 23.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 194 - - 273 - - 47 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2058 - - 3923 - - 4270 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 46 - - 31 - - 49 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96687 22 123 15 107 20 105 12 105 6 100 96687 89488 22 103 16 104 23 115 13 109 13 078 89488 83922 11 074 18 101 14 118 9 102 12 079 83922 79311 7 101 10 080 8 112 4 105 9 042 79311 75362 6 113 5 075 1 083 5 034 10 023 75362 71870 1 262 4 251 9 276 10 306 12 339 71870 68708 6 288 9 269 13 298 15 305 17 322 68708 65807 10 272 20 267 22 296 20 288 25 313 65807 63121 17 273 25 267 27 292 25 281 34 292 63121 60530 26 278 31 276 33 291 30 284 34 284 60530 57821 33 279 36 273 39 281 37 286 39 286 57821 55004 40 283 38 271 41 272 46 279 45 292 55004 52323 47 282 39 274 43 271 50 275 52 286 52323 49915 48 276 42 280 41 278 48 274 47 281 49915 47745 43 275 47 286 40 286 46 281 50 290 47745 45765 41 282 46 285 46 293 58 291 60 293 45765 43953 34 284 38 286 49 291 63 289 61 292 43953 42292 30 289 29 286 46 286 56 280 56 286 42292 40757 33 288 25 299 37 282 51 279 53 279 40757 39320 35 283 25 307 33 286 46 281 50 279 39320 37966 41 273 22 309 31 293 40 284 45 285 37966 36663 42 266 23 293 27 295 35 285 42 291 36663 35347 39 266 28 277 22 281 32 283 35 292 35347 33992 40 272 35 278 26 274 30 277 32 284 33992 32598 42 277 39 277 33 275 31 275 33 283 32598 31153 39 277 37 279 36 277 34 279 31 287 31153 29655 34 274 37 278 32 274 33 278 31 283 29655 28106 31 273 36 271 29 266 29 276 31 275 28106 26507 31 269 30 270 27 257 28 272 27 270 26507 24856 30 267 26 271 24 259 26 270 26 272 24856 23158 29 268 23 268 22 265 24 267 26 274 23158 21409 27 265 22 265 20 264 20 268 24 273 21409 19601 25 264 21 260 19 257 17 267 22 269 19601 17766 23 268 21 257 19 251 16 264 18 271 17766 16000 19 274 20 258 19 252 15 266 14 277 16000 14390 16 279 16 262 16 258 13 274 10 289 14390 12954 11 289 10 271 10 266 8 288 7 308 12954 11671 6 294 5 273 4 266 3 303 3 344 11671 10521 3 273 3 236 1 201 2 116 3 068 10521 9493 2 210 2 205 5*111 6*107 6 112 9493 8573 3 188 2 138 7*108 7*107 9 118 8573 7755 4 167 5 117 8 109 6 106 8 122 7755 7025 6 146 7*112 7 110 6 103 7 125 7025 6365 6 123 7*109 7 112 6 100 7 131 6365 5774 5 104 6 108 6 119 5 097 9 123 5774 5277 6 092 5 116 5 129 5 094 13 103 5277 4892 8 084 4 129 5 135 5 095 14 082 4892 4627 10 059 4 140 5 138 4 094 13 066 4627 4466 8*050 4 145 5 141 4 095 11*053 4466 4373 5*043 4 150 4 145 4 096 7*042 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography