DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/11 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.5 - - 61.9 - - 69.9 - - 64.5 - - 56.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -27 - - 44 - - 92 - - -1 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 289 - - 1339 - - 107 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5117 - - 6167 - - 4935 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 303 - - 1064 - - 2071 - - 3380 - - 353 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 102 - - 211 - - 14 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 8 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 5 - - 2 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 010 - - 290 - - 289 - - 296 - - 023 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -17 - - -4 - - -8 - - -2 - - -18 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4169 - - -4152 - - -5506 - - -5567 - - -6263 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8543 - - 9269 - - 11673 - - 10503 - - 10637 sfcLCL ODpotential -14156 - - -11607 - - -10535 - - -11737 - - -14755 ODpotential blCL 18530 - - 16724 - - 16702 - - 16672 - - 19129 blCL maxRH 34 - - 37 - - 29 - - 37 - - 29 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 49.5 - - 61.9 - - 69.9 - - 64.5 - - 56.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.1 - - 36.8 - - 34.1 - - 34.1 - - 25.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.1 - - 62.5 - - 70.1 - - 70.0 - - 62.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.1 - - 35.6 - - 33.3 - - 33.4 - - 25.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -27 - - 44 - - 92 - - -1 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 289 - - 1339 - - 107 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 5 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96356 23 336 25 317 27 296 17 290 33 297 96356 89316 17 028 17 020 6 328 12 343 19 309 89316 83798 15 048 9 051 10 033 10 359 14 347 83798 79187 10 032 5 066 10 026 10 345 18 005 79187 75223 6 018 3 348 7 358 14 330 21 346 75223 71737 8 346 3 325 6 313 14 320 23 334 71737 68583 18 342 10 308 11 339 13 337 22 319 68583 65693 22 334 15 306 18 336 18 336 24 312 65693 63033 22 327 17 305 21 317 22 313 28 311 63033 60469 22 314 19 312 23 302 25 300 31 310 60469 57789 22 303 22 312 23 300 24 311 29 310 57789 54997 23 304 24 307 21 304 22 313 26 313 54997 52323 22 304 24 300 22 315 20 304 23 299 52323 49912 19 291 20 288 24 310 21 310 19 304 49912 47749 13 300 11 266 18 282 19 300 23 322 47749 45783 12 328 6 342 10 258 14 266 24 318 45783 43988 10 323 10 007 3 285 11 219 16 284 43988 42339 11 287 12 355 8 016 5 165 7 247 42339 40814 9 252 12 308 9 003 4 130 4 278 40814 39389 4 274 9 273 8 314 4 266 7 292 39389 38047 5 316 5 282 6 283 7 256 7 310 38047 36753 8 306 5 283 8 271 10 264 9 304 36753 35445 11 310 6 276 10 263 13 276 11 291 35445 34095 12 327 8 317 9 276 18 285 14 306 34095 32711 16 332 14 332 10 309 18 295 18 320 32711 31279 19 337 18 338 14 328 17 317 20 337 31279 29789 21 346 21 347 19 344 21 338 21 348 29789 28242 23 349 22 353 23 349 24 343 23 349 28242 26640 25 348 22 355 22 350 22 343 22 348 26640 24985 27 348 23 355 22 348 20 342 18 342 24985 23281 26 349 23 356 21 351 19 343 19 339 23281 21523 17 357 20 001 17 001 16 349 18 344 21523 19706 3 048 10 008 11 011 11 352 14 347 19706 17865 3 086 2 332 5 346 8 332 11 343 17865 16098 5 034 2 345 5 355 8 347 9 343 16098 14487 9 014 3 008 6 008 7 017 6 005 14487 13046 11 002 5 009 6 016 7 030 8 023 13046 11756 12 355 6 004 6 018 8 029 11 024 11756 10599 11 353 7 002 6 013 10 027 12 024 10599 9559 9 353 6 358 6 008 10 028 11 026 9559 8629 6 360 5 355 5 006 8 039 8 029 8629 7800 4 020 3 355 5 012 6 048 4 032 7800 7060 4 046 2 022 4 013 4 038 2 044 7060 6391 3 056 2 048 3*353 3 018 4 053 6391 5791 2 068 3 045 4*317 3 348 10 055 5791 5287 4 085 2*019 5 291 3*319 16 059 5287 4898 6 064 3*312 5 286 3*300 19 059 4898 4629 8 040 4 287 5 282 3 294 15 050 4629 4467 8*021 4 283 5 278 2 290 11*040 4467 4373 6*010 3 279 4 278 1 296 6*023 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography