DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 05/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.1 - - 79.9 - - 86.1 - - 85.7 - - 75.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 134 - - 484 - - 508 - - 206 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1760 - - 5988 - - 10264 - - 10859 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 5532 - - 9267 - - 12776 - - 12694 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 6588 - - 10816 - - 15092 - - 15687 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1625 - - 2708 - - 1813 - - 1274 - - 9873 Hgt.Variab. W* 258 - - 595 - - 724 - - 547 - - 4 W* B/S 10 - - 22 - - 19 - - 10 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 7 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 148 - - 206 - - 227 - - 222 - - 199 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 2 - - 7 - - 13 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg 5 - - 14 - - 17 - - 48 - - 20 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7242 - - -4900 - - -3187 - - -2173 - - -9994 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 13831 - - 15717 - - 18280 - - 17861 - - 14370 sfcLCL ODpotential -12507 - - -9680 - - -6742 - - -5272 - - -15118 ODpotential blCL 19095 - - 20496 - - 21834 - - 20959 - - 19493 blCL maxRH 29 - - 23 - - 29 - - 49 - - 57 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 70.1 - - 79.9 - - 86.1 - - 85.7 - - 75.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 24.8 - - 25.6 - - 19.7 - - 21.3 - - 27.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 70.1 - - 78.0 - - 84.2 - - 85.2 - - 78.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.7 - - 25.5 - - 19.7 - - 21.4 - - 27.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 134 - - 484 - - 508 - - 206 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1760 - - 5988 - - 10264 - - 10859 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98213 2 102 7 178 9 251 8 313 6 296 98213 90774 3 184 5 195 7 229 9 260 8 292 90774 85032 4 177 8 238 5 256 6 216 7 266 85032 80251 3 190 9 244 6 247 4 221 5 255 80251 76141 3 207 4 218 8 235 7 273 6 302 76141 72524 2 187 4 227 6 253 7 279 8 292 72524 69270 6 307 6 255 6 259 7 269 11 297 69270 66311 11 299 10 267 7 277 9 276 11 269 66311 63573 15 277 14 261 15 271 16 288 13 266 63573 60917 24 269 22 262 27 265 28 282 25 278 60917 58144 28 267 26 262 29 256 31 266 31 268 58144 55262 29 267 24 266 24 257 30 258 34 263 55262 52521 28 278 22 268 28 268 32 266 35 270 52521 50076 26 280 22 279 27 265 34 268 38 273 50076 47895 19 293 18 290 23 282 33 265 41 268 47895 45903 19 305 23 304 23 294 32 261 41 262 45903 44065 21 305 24 313 29 297 32 276 39 277 44065 42377 19 295 24 316 27 292 36 284 39 284 42377 40824 14 296 20 312 21 294 30 285 34 279 40824 39377 8 322 18 306 17 305 23 290 28 282 39377 38018 13 004 16 308 14 319 21 296 27 286 38018 36712 21 359 13 319 13 333 20 296 27 284 36712 35395 26 357 14 342 13 334 19 295 27 283 35395 34040 27 001 15 346 13 329 19 296 27 286 34040 32653 23 004 14 337 14 325 20 301 29 292 32653 31221 17 007 14 330 15 323 22 307 31 293 31221 29733 12 014 13 330 16 320 23 309 29 291 29733 28190 10 359 14 326 17 316 23 310 27 291 28190 26593 11 331 17 322 17 315 19 305 23 289 26593 24945 10 333 17 324 17 314 17 298 21 284 24945 23250 13 321 14 328 16 314 16 296 19 285 23250 21502 13 294 11 313 13 310 13 289 17 291 21502 19694 14 285 11 283 11 293 11 287 13 284 19694 17859 12 275 12 274 9 275 9 278 13 267 17859 16098 10 223 7 252 8*257 8*275 5 228 16098 14499 10 179 5 231 8*251 10*269 2 321 14499 13074 10 153 5 205 8 250 9 265 5 263 13074 11797 9 144 5*199 8 247 9 253 7 251 11797 10647 6 158 5*212 8 242 9 237 10 250 10647 9611 5 185 5 217 7 234 10 221 13 248 9611 8681 5 212 5 215 7 223 11 211 14 248 8681 7848 5 219 5 212 7 215 11 206 16 246 7848 7103 5*208 5 207 7 208 12 202 16 244 7103 6426 5*176 5 202 7 201 13 199 17 242 6426 5820 5 151 5 198 7 197 13 198 16 238 5820 5309 5 140 5 196 7 193 13 196 15 232 5309 4912 5 139 6 193 7 191 13 195 13 224 4912 4638 4 140 6 192 7 189 13 195 10 214 4638 4471 4 140 5 193 7 189 12 195 8*205 4471 4374 4 142 5 191 6 188 11 194 4*193 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography