DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/09 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.6 - - 59.3 - - 65.0 - - 61.4 - - 54.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -32 - - 34 - - 25 - - -3 - - -45 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 552 - - 1660 - - 180 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 5380 - - 6488 - - 5008 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 304 - - 1632 - - 2304 - - 3238 - - 378 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 127 - - 174 - - 20 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 10 - - 31 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 2 - - 1 - - 4 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 029 - - 284 - - 308 - - 343 - - 039 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -16 - - -8 - - -11 - - -8 - - -18 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1789 - - -2231 - - -2638 - - -1687 - - -1179 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6163 - - 7611 - - 9127 - - 6696 - - 5553 sfcLCL ODpotential -11938 - - -9522 - - -10449 - - -9151 - - -8409 ODpotential blCL 16311 - - 14902 - - 16937 - - 14159 - - 12783 blCL maxRH 41 - - 48 - - 39 - - 47 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.6 - - 59.3 - - 65.0 - - 61.4 - - 54.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 36.2 - - 41.3 - - 40.3 - - 47.2 - - 45.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 52.5 - - 60.0 - - 65.8 - - 65.2 - - 59.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.0 - - 40.1 - - 39.1 - - 45.9 - - 43.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -32 - - 34 - - 25 - - -3 - - -45 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 552 - - 1660 - - 180 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96609 57 279 60 284 56 274 54 278 59 283 96609 89447 33 281 42 285 40 280 39 287 40 290 89447 83971 25 289 31 282 33 289 30 292 30 302 83971 79434 19 297 18 274 26 287 29 286 32 301 79434 75512 20 309 14 285 18 294 23 289 32 296 75512 72028 26 307 20 305 19 311 24 303 32 299 72028 68857 25 298 20 299 20 301 23 300 28 297 68857 65942 20 290 17 300 17 283 22 287 26 287 65942 63247 17 291 19 300 18 274 21 276 23 277 63247 60636 24 285 24 289 22 280 21 273 24 275 60636 57917 31 272 29 276 26 270 25 273 28 277 57917 55108 34 262 30 265 29 260 32 269 31 278 55108 52432 36 262 31 263 33 263 31 274 31 280 52432 50023 36 269 32 267 33 268 31 278 31 280 50023 47857 37 271 31 273 29 274 31 277 31 279 47857 45886 35 275 29 278 28 280 29 281 29 278 45886 44083 31 284 26 284 28 279 30 287 27 281 44083 42421 30 296 23 301 24 283 30 288 26 291 42421 40876 25 312 23 320 19 301 22 290 26 293 40876 39428 26 321 25 324 18 319 15 301 20 291 39428 38069 23 314 27 313 20 329 11 334 14 301 38069 36765 13 300 21 294 22 323 14 332 11 329 36765 35452 3 073 6 239 17 307 12 314 15 324 35452 34101 14 042 4 061 7 304 5 310 13 317 34101 32715 17 033 8 051 4 009 3 037 6 314 32715 31281 15 048 8 073 4 054 4 091 1 203 31281 29790 15 058 7 095 1 078 2 139 2 211 29790 28243 14 057 6 077 2 057 2 150 2 217 28243 26643 14 042 9 047 5 050 4 116 3 156 26643 24989 16 035 11 054 7 072 5 106 3 152 24989 23284 17 045 12 075 7 104 4 105 2 161 23284 21524 17 057 14 078 10 104 5 091 2 083 21524 19700 16 068 15 084 10 105 4 070 3 055 19700 17849 8 072 10 078 6 105 4 037 4 035 17849 16070 6 053 7 056 4 081 5 046 4 063 16070 14454 6 041 6 055 4 085 3 070 2 117 14454 13013 4 035 4 063 3 101 2 145 4 186 13013 11725 4 068 3 085 3 103 1 122 4 196 11725 10571 4 062 3 088 3 064 4 048 3 165 10571 9536 5 050 4 097 4 057 6 051 4 096 9536 8611 4 046 6 106 5 076 6 072 4 081 8611 7787 3 055 7 112 5 088 6 079 3 066 7787 7050 2 067 6 117 4*086 4 071 2 044 7050 6383 2 083 4 123 2*062 2 050 1 044 6383 5787 2 090 2*101 1 015 2 355 3 067 5787 5285 2 064 1*355 2 288 3*342 7 071 5285 4897 5 066 3 286 2 281 4*342 10 065 4897 4629 8 046 3 278 2 275 4 345 12 052 4629 4466 7*036 3 272 2 273 4 344 10*044 4466 4373 6*029 3 270 2 272 3 342 7*039 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography