DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/06 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.6 - - 58.1 - - 60.3 - - 56.6 - - 49.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -23 - - 41 - - 39 - - -4 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3146 - - 3887 - - 614 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5781 - - 6353 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 7974 - - 8715 - - 5442 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 599 - - 3353 - - 4115 - - 5586 - - 1021 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 238 - - 256 - - 40 - - 13 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 8 - - 9 - - 10 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 035 - - 125 - - 113 - - 072 - - 039 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 4 - - 14 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -15 - - 4 - - -16 - - -10 - - -18 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1018 - - 1691 - - 2341 - - 431 - - -361 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5393 - - 6283 - - 6374 - - 5011 - - 4735 sfcLCL ODpotential -5203 - - -877 - - -223 - - -2498 - - -4419 ODpotential blCL 9577 - - 8851 - - 8938 - - 7940 - - 8793 blCL maxRH 68 - - 92 - - 80 - - 94 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 300 - - 660 - - 660 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.6 - - 58.1 - - 60.3 - - 56.6 - - 49.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.3 - - 45.6 - - 47.3 - - 49.6 - - 44.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 51.5 - - 58.7 - - 61.0 - - 58.5 - - 53.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.1 - - 44.3 - - 46.1 - - 48.3 - - 43.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -23 - - 41 - - 39 - - -4 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3146 - - 3887 - - 614 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 67 - - 18 - - 77 - - 17 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 8 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96506 55 276 63 276 58 266 66 276 67 272 96506 89379 40 290 44 276 46 282 41 287 36 283 89379 83900 28 273 25 276 32 283 28 298 18 300 83900 79340 14 275 21 268 23 266 26 292 22 298 79340 75414 16 321 22 286 14 269 25 284 28 294 75414 71960 23 307 20 300 18 309 20 286 24 291 71960 68822 23 295 15 315 16 314 17 297 22 305 68822 65923 18 304 12 315 17 310 16 303 20 312 65923 63225 17 310 11 322 18 294 15 307 18 308 63225 60610 19 304 12 327 14 284 18 314 18 313 60610 57884 21 293 16 314 15 303 21 309 17 324 57884 55046 23 294 20 300 21 305 23 314 19 332 55046 52328 26 292 19 302 20 306 23 319 22 321 52328 49871 27 289 19 314 17 321 20 323 23 320 49871 47660 31 284 22 311 19 326 17 322 22 335 47660 45642 29 274 23 306 22 323 18 326 26 346 45642 43778 27 281 20 304 21 322 21 329 29 350 43778 42048 26 273 20 307 22 321 24 332 31 006 42048 40440 25 274 20 299 21 318 23 338 34 010 40440 38940 27 279 18 300 16 324 23 347 28 011 38940 37540 26 281 15 304 16 358 25 359 27 027 37540 36205 22 284 14 309 19 008 26 021 33 032 36205 34870 23 274 14 306 18 012 30 037 35 034 34870 33503 30 270 15 291 20 017 37 044 39 043 33503 32108 33 270 13 283 13 002 32 039 44 050 32108 30672 35 265 15 270 5 350 21 039 43 047 30672 29189 38 252 18 254 4 266 13 048 32 038 29189 27661 38 242 25 246 9 227 8 084 21 041 27661 26087 36 239 35 242 21 230 6 145 17 065 26087 24471 36 239 37 236 33 228 8 171 12 076 24471 22814 33 236 36 235 35 221 13 191 8 171 22814 21105 29 227 34 235 29 218 20 192 16 186 21105 19336 25 223 27 228 23 211 20 180 15 171 19336 17541 19 209 22 214 19 193 16 169 13 154 17541 15817 15 195 16 199 13 176 12 153 14 137 15817 14247 12 190 13 183 10 179 11 138 18 119 14247 12845 10 180 12 178 8 172 10 117 19 108 12845 11592 10 176 12 167 8 157 9 108 16 102 11592 10466 10 175 11 154 8 143 9 106 12 102 10466 9455 9 174 11 141 9*125 10 104 10 120 9455 8548 9 171 10*134 10*112 11 096 12 121 8548 7737 8 165 11*131 10 107 14 086 16 110 7737 7010 6 153 11 129 10 108 16 079 21 097 7010 6352 4 130 10 123 10 112 18 075 27 088 6352 5765 5 114 9 119 9 116 17*074 31 079 5765 5271 8 105 7 122 9 118 15*073 30 071 5271 4890 11 079 6 124 8 120 12 073 26 066 4890 4626 10 062 5 126 8 122 8 072 20 061 4626 4465 9*047 5 127 7 124 5 071 13*055 4465 4373 5*035 4 129 6 125 2 060 5*039 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography