DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 05/20 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 73.7 - - 79.5 - - 78.8 - - 69.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 512 - - 542 - - 226 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7055 - - 9813 - - 10048 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 10149 - - 12435 - - 12114 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 11883 - - 14641 - - 14876 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1317 - - 1205 - - 1758 - - 9258 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 639 - - 728 - - 549 - - 4 W* B/S - - - 19 - - 15 - - 14 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 9 - - 7 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 194 - - 210 - - 212 - - 189 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 4 - - 9 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -17 - - 20 - - 24 - - 21 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4763 - - -3289 - - -2952 - - -11357 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 16647 - - 17931 - - 17829 - - 15732 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8829 - - -6536 - - -6203 - - -16213 ODpotential blCL - - - 20712 - - 21177 - - 21079 - - 20588 blCL maxRH - - - 31 - - 36 - - 36 - - 36 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 73.7 - - 79.5 - - 78.8 - - 69.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 15.0 - - 14.5 - - 14.4 - - 15.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 71.8 - - 77.5 - - 78.2 - - 73.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 15.0 - - 14.5 - - 14.5 - - 15.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 512 - - 542 - - 226 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7055 - - 9813 - - 10048 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98125 2 031 4 061 5 057 12 066 98125 90740 4 132 4 053 6 012 8 067 90740 85040 6 139 2 085 2 345 3 356 85040 80302 8 105 5 192 4 149 7 323 80302 76222 9 096 6 158 9 157 5 321 76222 72615 4 197 2 233 3 230 1 057 72615 69343 8 211 9 257 4 288 4 221 69343 66324 10 227 13 241 7 255 10 224 66324 63511 17 234 16 225 14 239 13 236 63511 60774 18 231 16 232 20 236 17 243 60774 57916 20 239 21 244 23 248 20 257 57916 54967 23 249 25 245 28 253 26 261 54967 52171 27 257 25 245 29 253 24 263 52171 49665 31 259 27 261 26 267 23 272 49665 47430 35 259 31 264 27 273 24 276 47430 45415 40 264 34 264 30 272 25 274 45415 43588 45 265 37 266 32 267 28 272 43588 41915 47 262 41 264 36 266 33 265 41915 40370 48 255 46 260 38 264 34 258 40370 38936 47 252 44 259 36 261 29 253 38936 37597 46 257 40 261 34 260 24 256 37597 36313 44 260 35 264 31 258 24 259 36313 35018 41 263 32 264 26 259 24 255 35018 33686 37 267 26 271 20 257 22 252 33686 32319 32 271 24 276 18 258 21 250 32319 30906 28 276 23 276 18 263 19 251 30906 29435 24 275 21 276 17 266 15 251 29435 27911 22 273 19 277 17 262 12 248 27911 26333 23 270 18 272 16 260 12 249 26333 24705 23 271 18 274 16 262 12 245 24705 23030 21 264 18 272 16 261 12 240 23030 21304 19 255 18 261 15 256 13 238 21304 19520 19 261 16 254 14 243 13 230 19520 17711 17 260 14 241 12 224 13 214 17711 15974 14 245 13*225 7*237 9 184 15974 14393 13 236 10*219 6*254 3 061 14393 12982 11*223 9 219 6 254 3 357 12982 11717 7*204 9 218 6 248 1 280 11717 10578 6 197 9 215 6 232 3 225 10578 9552 6 195 9 212 6 214 6 222 9552 8631 6 194 9 208 7 203 8 222 8631 7808 6 193 9 206 8 196 11 220 7808 7070 6 192 9 203 9 193 12 219 7070 6401 6 191 9 201 10 191 14 216 6401 5802 6 191 8 199 10 189 15 214 5802 5297 6 191 8 197 10 188 15 211 5297 4906 6 193 8 196 10 188 14 208 4906 4635 6 192 8 196 10 188 12 201 4635 4469 6 192 8 197 10 187 9*194 4469 4374 5 193 7 196 9 187 5*184 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography