DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/23 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.6 - - 58.1 - - 60.1 - - 58.0 - - 54.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 57 - - 36 - - -5 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2951 - - 2501 - - 334 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 6040 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 7779 - - 7329 - - 5162 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3270 - - 2002 - - 2982 - - 4970 - - 4071 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 261 - - 225 - - 42 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 20 - - 12 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 040 - - 174 - - 126 - - 049 - - 024 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 9 - - 4 - - 2 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - -10 - - -19 - - -10 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1029 - - 1253 - - 266 - - -356 - - -1968 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5404 - - 6526 - - 7063 - - 5518 - - 6342 sfcLCL ODpotential -4178 - - -2656 - - -3910 - - -4263 - - -6043 ODpotential blCL 8552 - - 10435 - - 11239 - - 9425 - - 10417 blCL maxRH 59 - - 65 - - 60 - - 58 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 10 - - 10 - - 250 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 52.6 - - 58.1 - - 60.1 - - 58.0 - - 54.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 44.0 - - 44.5 - - 44.1 - - 48.7 - - 41.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.6 - - 58.7 - - 60.8 - - 60.1 - - 59.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 42.8 - - 43.2 - - 42.8 - - 47.4 - - 40.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 57 - - 36 - - -5 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2951 - - 2501 - - 334 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97332 8 237 15 256 14 251 10 260 15 268 97332 90052 1 241 8 230 11 243 8 307 9 018 90052 84496 7 018 3 115 3 180 5 268 10 358 84496 79892 6 002 4 039 1 266 4 328 10 346 79892 75922 7 005 7 048 5 330 6 357 8 005 75922 72412 4 357 8 357 6 004 4 059 3 008 72412 69238 6 072 7 010 8 005 7 041 6 340 69238 66317 10 026 6 029 3 080 1 336 6 291 66317 63602 8 343 2 071 7 146 6 143 2 181 63602 60959 15 216 8 263 4 263 3 152 10 258 60959 58203 11 193 16 232 14 232 9 238 16 242 58203 55336 23 246 20 241 21 239 12 256 17 242 55336 52573 30 235 34 243 35 251 33 254 31 253 52573 50073 40 236 43 234 46 238 48 244 42 239 50073 47822 45 236 49 232 49 235 55 239 44 242 47822 45770 51 238 52 233 54 236 57 238 56 238 45770 43890 56 236 59 234 59 233 60 236 65 233 43890 42148 59 231 63 229 63 231 62 235 69 231 42148 40523 63 229 66 227 67 233 67 236 71 229 40523 39002 66 228 69 227 71 232 70 233 74 226 39002 37585 67 226 71 227 73 231 68 226 72 221 37585 36241 67 225 73 225 73 228 67 225 71 220 36241 34901 68 225 74 223 72 225 65 224 72 219 34901 33530 72 225 76 223 73 223 64 222 69 217 33530 32132 77 224 79 222 75 221 68 222 65 216 32132 30693 79 223 79 218 77 218 72 220 65 214 30693 29205 77 223 75 218 73 217 74 217 67 212 29205 27673 71 225 70 222 67 218 70 214 68 209 27673 26097 65 227 66 225 62 221 64 216 68 208 26097 24477 60 228 62 227 57 222 57 218 64 209 24477 22814 55 228 57 228 52 222 52 218 60 209 22814 21100 51 229 52 228 48 224 47 215 53 208 21100 19329 46 229 46 227 44 221 42 212 46 204 19329 17534 40 227 40 225 39 217 37 209 38 200 17534 15811 36 225 36 221 35 217 31 210 30 198 15811 14244 33 223 32 216 29 216 25 209 23 195 14244 12846 28 222 27 212 24 212 18 202 17 185 12846 11594 23 221 22 210 18 209 12 191 14 169 11594 10471 18 222 17 212 13 212 6 186 12 152 10471 9461 16 227 14 218 10 218 3 179 11 135 9461 8555 13 232 11*223 7 217 2 152 10 118 8555 7745 10 233 8*225 5*206 2 121 9 115 7745 7020 7 227 5 216 4*180 2 106 6 119 7020 6362 4 213 2 170 3 145 3 094 4 123 6362 5774 1 172 3 119 4 116 3 075 3 120 5774 5278 2 082 3 113 4 113 4*060 2 103 5278 4895 3 060 3 113 4 112 4*052 3 074 4895 4629 4 052 3 111 4 112 4 049 3 048 4629 4466 4*043 3 112 4 113 3 047 4*029 4466 4373 4*039 2 112 3 114 2 045 4*021 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography