DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/17 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0954z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.8 - - 70.1 - - 74.5 - - 76.5 - - 71.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 4 - - 145 - - 217 - - 75 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1039 - - 1766 - - 2652 - - 3037 - - 1214 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 5640 - - 6395 - - 6019 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 5867 - - 6594 - - 7480 - - 7865 - - 6042 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1354 - - 1621 - - 2061 - - 1830 - - 2388 Hgt.Variab. W* 87 - - 277 - - 351 - - 256 - - 17 W* B/S 4 - - 11 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 5 - - 8 - - 9 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 149 - - 152 - - 159 - - 171 - - 166 Direction Wind Shear 7 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 7 Wind Shear Max.Converg 4 - - 10 - - 16 - - 21 - - 11 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1369 - - 1824 - - 1600 - - 800 - - 640 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4498 - - 4770 - - 5880 - - 7066 - - 5402 sfcLCL ODpotential -325 - - 286 - - -286 - - -1785 - - -2492 ODpotential blCL 6192 - - 6308 - - 7766 - - 9650 - - 8534 blCL maxRH 100 - - 93 - - 91 - - 91 - - 84 maxRH CAPE 410 - - 1090 - - 1580 - - 1250 - - 1490 CAPE Temp@2m 65.8 - - 70.1 - - 74.5 - - 76.5 - - 71.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 60.7 - - 63.7 - - 63.2 - - 60.2 - - 62.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 66.8 - - 70.1 - - 74.1 - - 76.9 - - 74.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 59.9 - - 62.6 - - 62.8 - - 60.0 - - 62.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 4 - - 145 - - 217 - - 75 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1039 - - 1766 - - 2652 - - 3037 - - 1214 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 70 - - 64 - - 65 - - 37 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 14 - - 13 - - 13 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98915 21 103 23 088 24 126 12 126 9 066 98915 91517 25 098 26 092 20 098 18 104 16 067 91517 85791 25 097 24 097 20 096 20 086 22 075 85791 81049 26 100 18 095 22 097 19 072 23 078 81049 76971 20 102 17 088 24 096 19 078 19 082 76971 73364 9 118 18 102 19 094 21 082 19 089 73364 70091 14 149 16 123 13 102 13 078 18 077 70091 67088 15 135 11 133 7 089 7 094 9 059 67088 64311 7 123 7 160 3 138 6 130 4 104 64311 61630 7 267 8 177 8 209 4 182 4 195 61630 58856 9 219 15 190 17 216 12 231 11 259 58856 56016 18 240 18 214 21 223 22 239 20 256 56016 53339 27 239 24 219 27 223 28 237 27 247 53339 50938 24 240 23 221 29 220 30 232 31 245 50938 48780 34 247 32 233 35 237 38 240 40 247 48780 46807 41 237 39 234 43 238 45 237 44 244 46807 44984 41 229 38 234 42 234 45 229 44 238 44984 43284 39 226 38 232 41 230 44 226 44 230 43284 41690 40 224 41 225 43 226 44 224 44 227 41690 40189 40 220 43 224 44 224 45 222 44 227 40189 38777 40 214 42 220 43 221 44 220 44 226 38777 37421 43 212 43 209 43 216 43 218 42 223 37421 36056 46 210 46 210 44 215 43 219 40 219 36056 34656 50 208 52 211 47 215 39 222 39 220 34656 33224 53 213 57 211 51 213 41 220 36 220 33224 31748 58 216 56 211 54 210 48 216 37 218 31748 30219 53 214 50 206 47 205 50 211 41 215 30219 28637 46 212 47 202 38 204 41 211 44 208 28637 27002 35 218 44 216 34 210 35 214 39 214 27002 25317 24 224 31 224 26 216 27 222 26 224 25317 23588 19 227 20 215 23 207 22 220 17 228 23588 21807 17 233 20 214 23 207 22 215 16 216 21807 19963 15 241 21 221 22 216 21 214 17 208 19963 18091 12 250 19 223 21 222 20 220 17 213 18091 16291 10 244 16 221 20 223 20 225 17 222 16291 14653 9 242 15 227 18 223 18 229 17 226 14653 13192 6 238 15 235 15 230 15 231 15 225 13192 11885 4 212 13 236 12 243 11 233 12 218 11885 10712 6 185 11 223 10 254 7 236 9 203 10712 9659 9 174 10 204 7 259 3 219 8 182 9659 8715 10 179 7 190 5 240 3 164 9 164 8715 7873 10 182 5 173 4*198 6*158 11 160 7873 7120 10 179 4*155 6*171 9*166 12 158 7120 6438 10*170 4*145 8 159 9 168 11*158 6438 5827 8*162 4 146 8 156 10 170 9*165 5827 5314 6 152 5 149 9 157 10 172 7 171 5314 4915 3 137 5 156 9 157 10 173 6 171 4915 4639 2 130 5 161 9 159 10 174 5 162 4639 4471 2 129 4 163 8 159 9 174 4 144 4471 4375 2 129 4 163 7 159 8 174 3 135 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography