DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 54.8 - - 59.3 - - 62.8 - - 60.0 - - 57.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 9 - - 23 - - -3 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 409 - - 853 - - 61 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5237 - - 5681 - - 4889 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1665 - - 1730 - - 2228 - - 1482 - - 1553 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 78 - - 133 - - 23 - - 12 W* B/S 1 - - 7 - - 10 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 054 - - 059 - - 086 - - 062 - - 017 Direction Wind Shear 4 - - 2 - - 1 - - 3 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -9 - - -5 - - -9 - - -7 - - -14 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -126 - - -61 - - -777 - - 516 - - -303 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4500 - - 5298 - - 6458 - - 4374 - - 4677 sfcLCL ODpotential -4293 - - -4289 - - -3950 - - -2764 - - -4471 ODpotential blCL 8667 - - 9526 - - 9631 - - 7653 - - 8845 blCL maxRH 99 - - 100 - - 99 - - 95 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 90 - - 150 - - 180 - - 300 - - 80 CAPE Temp@2m 54.8 - - 59.3 - - 62.8 - - 60.0 - - 57.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 50.1 - - 51.1 - - 49.5 - - 55.6 - - 51.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.1 - - 60.4 - - 63.6 - - 61.6 - - 61.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 49.0 - - 49.8 - - 48.2 - - 54.3 - - 50.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 9 - - 23 - - -3 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 409 - - 853 - - 61 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 96 - - 100 - - 97 - - 78 - - 51 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 10 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97716 17 303 28 280 31 275 33 300 33 296 97716 90425 22 275 28 286 23 274 30 277 34 299 90425 84798 27 276 22 299 16 278 24 267 32 288 84798 80146 21 276 19 293 17 286 17 291 20 287 80146 76149 11 273 16 278 18 287 14 308 12 303 76149 72610 10 307 8 270 12 281 9 291 8 305 72610 69405 8 326 5 310 6 246 9 260 10 295 69405 66477 6 360 1 299 6 215 10 237 10 272 66477 63782 9 289 4 270 7 235 8 249 7 259 63782 61179 15 272 9 275 12 242 14 267 11 275 61179 58484 20 265 16 273 15 251 16 254 17 259 58484 55711 24 262 22 272 19 268 18 251 19 248 55711 53064 36 260 35 271 30 274 25 265 24 259 53064 50665 41 257 41 262 38 261 35 261 33 259 50665 48496 43 262 42 263 40 256 39 258 38 259 48496 46510 47 265 45 267 41 261 42 260 40 261 46510 44674 49 265 47 266 45 263 45 261 43 263 44674 42962 51 263 49 262 48 263 47 262 47 263 42962 41352 52 261 50 260 49 261 48 261 50 263 41352 39836 52 261 50 259 49 260 47 259 50 260 39836 38410 52 265 50 258 49 259 46 260 47 256 38410 37046 53 268 50 261 49 258 45 262 44 256 37046 35677 52 267 50 265 48 258 43 261 39 258 35677 34273 53 264 51 264 45 262 40 262 37 260 34273 32837 51 262 49 260 44 262 38 262 35 259 32837 31353 49 257 46 257 41 258 36 259 35 254 31353 29811 42 256 48 254 40 257 33 261 32 253 29811 28213 19 254 32 254 30 263 28 266 26 257 28213 26563 7 028 10 264 10 265 11 284 11 263 26563 24880 3 118 5 244 2 318 5 330 2 010 24880 23170 4 250 9 228 10 263 2 358 12 139 23170 21416 8 274 11 209 9 239 5 173 9 123 21416 19605 8 244 14 206 13 216 10 202 5 137 19605 17771 15 222 17 212 15 214 14 225 6 208 17771 16009 21 219 19 209 17 215 16 230 8 219 16009 14410 23 220 19 207 16 219 16 235 10 210 14410 12984 23 224 19 208 15 219 16 237 12 207 12984 11708 21 228 18 215 15 214 15 234 12 207 11708 10563 18 231 16 219 14 210 14 229 12 208 10563 9534 12 226 12 218 12 204 12 223 12 205 9534 8611 6 216 9 208 9 196 10 214 12 196 8611 7787 2 207 6 185 7 185 9 198 12 181 7787 7051 1 128 6 147 6 175 7 181 11 167 7051 6383 2 090 7 129 5 166 6 164 8 152 6383 5788 5 082 6 122 4*152 4 131 4 133 5788 5287 6 075 4*099 3*107 4 078 2 056 5287 4899 7 073 3*069 2 083 6*064 4 042 4899 4631 6 063 2 054 2 077 5*065 7 032 4631 4467 3*051 2 054 2 079 3 062 6*021 4467 4373 2*038 1 052 2 080 2 057 5*014 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography