DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/28 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.4 - - 60.8 - - 64.1 - - 60.7 - - 56.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -12 - - 28 - - 15 - - -17 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1289 - - 1765 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6117 - - 6593 - - 4375 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1830 - - 1849 - - 2739 - - 4542 - - 2922 Hgt.Variab. W* 11 - - 166 - - 170 - - 16 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 055 - - 117 - - 145 - - 068 - - 058 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 9 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -12 - - -6 - - -5 - - -9 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3299 - - -744 - - -956 - - -1603 - - -2266 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7674 - - 6862 - - 7550 - - 5979 - - 6640 sfcLCL ODpotential -11185 - - -7778 - - -6310 - - -5684 - - -7778 ODpotential blCL 15559 - - 13895 - - 12903 - - 10059 - - 12152 blCL maxRH 80 - - 84 - - 82 - - 65 - - 84 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 100 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 52.4 - - 60.8 - - 64.1 - - 60.7 - - 56.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 34.4 - - 45.8 - - 46.1 - - 49.4 - - 43.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.4 - - 61.7 - - 65.1 - - 64.4 - - 63.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.2 - - 44.6 - - 44.8 - - 48.1 - - 41.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -12 - - 28 - - 15 - - -17 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1289 - - 1765 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 20 - - 38 - - 29 - - 0 - - 37 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 8 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97074 29 266 47 263 45 282 39 282 50 278 97074 89773 26 288 28 276 29 275 32 269 34 284 89773 84185 21 289 21 268 23 259 25 271 25 285 84185 79574 17 279 15 274 16 280 18 275 19 281 79574 75620 19 257 18 258 22 270 18 264 17 271 75620 72129 13 256 13 253 17 253 13 263 15 278 72129 68945 15 271 9 278 14 268 15 270 17 277 68945 65996 22 271 19 253 24 253 25 265 24 260 65996 63251 25 273 24 253 30 241 32 258 26 255 63251 60578 29 271 25 251 30 248 33 254 31 255 60578 57785 35 258 30 247 35 243 40 242 39 243 57785 54896 46 253 37 248 40 245 44 242 44 246 54896 52150 58 249 54 246 54 243 53 242 48 248 52150 49683 58 245 60 239 59 239 56 243 55 246 49683 47482 56 248 58 241 57 240 57 244 53 244 47482 45504 55 254 54 248 49 247 54 243 50 250 45504 43713 51 255 50 251 48 249 51 246 49 250 43713 42076 49 256 48 251 50 248 52 252 45 250 42076 40560 50 256 47 253 51 250 54 251 42 252 40560 39137 48 254 49 256 50 253 52 248 42 254 39137 37795 46 254 49 255 50 253 47 250 38 249 37795 36503 44 257 45 253 47 251 42 255 35 249 36503 35198 44 256 44 252 44 253 40 256 34 248 35198 33855 42 254 43 251 42 253 37 256 32 247 33855 32479 40 254 41 252 41 252 34 254 30 243 32479 31057 36 255 39 253 40 250 34 252 31 239 31057 29578 32 253 37 254 38 249 33 251 30 237 29578 28043 30 253 35 250 37 246 32 249 28 240 28043 26453 28 256 30 244 36 242 31 248 26 242 26453 24811 26 257 26 243 33 236 29 251 25 244 24811 23121 23 257 24 243 29 235 28 255 23 246 23121 21376 22 255 23 237 26 232 25 254 22 248 21376 19570 20 249 21 228 23 224 21 247 20 244 19570 17738 19 242 20 222 21 219 18 238 17 236 17738 15980 20 234 20 223 21 220 19 228 17 226 15980 14383 21 231 20 224 21 221 21 224 18 217 14383 12960 21 234 18 224 20 219 21 223 18 210 12960 11686 20 235 16 221 19 214 19 222 17 207 11686 10543 19 233 15 218 17 210 16 217 15 206 10543 9517 18 231 14 216 15 203 13 205 13 197 9517 8598 17 228 14 211 13 195 12 194 13 186 8598 7778 15 222 13 202 13 190 11 189 12 179 7778 7045 11 209 11 188 11*186 10 185 9 176 7045 6382 8 187 9*171 10*178 9 179 7 174 6382 5788 5 154 7*147 8 162 8 166 5 173 5788 5287 5 115 5 113 6 132 6 144 4 151 5287 4899 5 090 4 104 5 116 6 115 4 107 4899 4631 6 078 4 103 5 113 6 089 5 082 4631 4467 6*061 4 104 5 111 6*073 6*065 4467 4373 5*055 3 105 4 111 5*065 5*058 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography