DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.9 - - 49.0 - - 50.4 - - 50.0 - - 47.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 21 - - 23 - - -10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 226 - - 907 - - 1168 - - 583 - - 12 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 5054 - - 5735 - - 5996 - - 5411 - - 4840 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2513 - - 2108 - - 2236 - - 2945 - - 2835 Hgt.Variab. W* 19 - - 119 - - 135 - - 43 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 9 - - 17 - - 20 - - 13 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 159 - - 174 - - 174 - - 166 - - 101 Direction Wind Shear 10 - - 11 - - 14 - - 11 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg 18 - - 39 - - 40 - - 25 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 681 - - 1363 - - 1623 - - 1038 - - 468 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential -242 - - 760 - - 690 - - -308 - - -715 ODpotential blCL 5296 - - 4975 - - 5306 - - 5719 - - 5555 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 97 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 140 - - 220 - - 490 - - 600 - - 230 CAPE Temp@2m 47.9 - - 49.0 - - 50.4 - - 50.0 - - 47.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 46.7 - - 47.5 - - 48.5 - - 47.8 - - 46.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.0 - - 49.8 - - 51.1 - - 51.6 - - 50.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 46.4 - - 47.0 - - 47.9 - - 47.3 - - 46.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 21 - - 23 - - -10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 226 - - 907 - - 1168 - - 583 - - 12 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 102 - - 101 - - 101 - - 88 - - 78 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96716 11 161 10 313 2 269 7 249 19 261 96716 89573 11 142 3 181 4 111 5 355 5 049 89573 84053 8 109 7 140 5 157 8 348 9 061 84053 79466 8 095 4 106 2 144 5 358 5 023 79466 75518 6 063 3 105 4 320 6 005 8 022 75518 72013 4 340 2 136 4 258 9 309 11 333 72013 68821 3 316 3 246 3 283 10 279 12 329 68821 65876 4 260 8 264 7 281 12 265 17 278 65876 63148 7 232 11 245 11 257 12 243 20 256 63148 60509 13 242 10 267 9 248 10 234 13 246 60509 57730 16 239 17 267 14 272 15 257 5 286 57730 54808 25 243 26 250 22 242 24 248 19 239 54808 51997 36 240 34 229 29 231 27 239 27 233 51997 49470 44 237 34 229 35 228 38 222 42 225 49470 47232 47 230 41 231 42 229 48 224 42 220 47232 45213 50 224 48 229 56 225 54 225 43 224 45213 43355 53 222 56 224 67 223 59 225 49 226 43355 41630 59 224 65 220 76 222 64 225 54 224 41630 40020 72 227 71 222 81 221 69 226 56 225 40020 38516 87 227 76 222 83 221 75 226 62 226 38516 37115 96 224 82 223 84 222 80 224 68 225 37115 35781 95 223 88 223 86 222 84 223 73 223 35781 34450 93 223 91 222 88 223 86 222 76 222 34450 33094 93 224 92 220 87 223 86 224 77 223 33094 31725 93 224 92 219 83 221 84 223 74 223 31725 30330 89 223 90 219 72 219 75 222 64 222 30330 28891 82 224 84 221 61 218 63 219 53 218 28891 27402 64 228 73 223 55 216 55 216 49 215 27402 25860 41 230 60 224 46 214 51 217 47 218 25860 24266 37 227 47 226 39 212 46 212 37 207 24266 22624 37 230 34 225 41 210 42 211 33 200 22624 20929 39 227 37 218 46 216 40 212 37 212 20929 19177 40 216 38 208 44 216 40 213 39 219 19177 17399 38 206 38 203 38 210 38 209 34 213 17399 15687 40 202 38 200 38 205 35 203 33 204 15687 14127 39 194 37 197 39 203 31 198 32 194 14127 12737 37 186 37 195 38 199 29 193 30 184 12737 11494 34 180 35 193 37 195 29 186 30 180 11494 10381 31 179 33 190 35 192 30 180 32 179 10381 9382 28 178 32 186 34 190 29 179 33 181 9382 8488 26 174 30 184 32 185 28 177 32 184 8488 7690 24 171 28 182 31 181 26 177 27 185 7690 6976 23 169 27 181 29 178 23 176 23 181 6976 6328 22 169 25 179 27*177 20 176 18 178 6328 5750 20 169 23*178 25*177 19*174 15 180 5750 5262 17*169 21*176 23 175 17*172 11 180 5262 4885 13*167 19 174 20 173 15 168 6*172 4885 4623 10 160 17 172 18 172 13 162 3*147 4623 4464 7 151 15 172 16 171 12 160 2 094 4464 4373 4 133 11 171 11 170 6 154 3 057 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography