DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/07 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.5 - - 60.1 - - 63.4 - - 59.0 - - 53.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -21 - - 36 - - 18 - - -17 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1570 - - 2625 - - 1700 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6398 - - 7453 - - 6528 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1210 - - 1675 - - 3483 - - 2013 - - 1758 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 183 - - 197 - - 75 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 11 - - 13 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 273 - - 071 - - 069 - - 067 - - 302 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 13 - - 9 - - 24 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 4 - - 34 - - 23 - - -11 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -169 - - -378 - - -14 - - 153 - - -1747 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4542 - - 6776 - - 7468 - - 6376 - - 6122 sfcLCL ODpotential -6029 - - -4137 - - -3558 - - -5140 - - -7290 ODpotential blCL 10402 - - 10535 - - 11011 - - 11668 - - 11664 blCL maxRH 65 - - 60 - - 56 - - 46 - - 48 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.5 - - 60.1 - - 63.4 - - 59.0 - - 53.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 43.8 - - 45.5 - - 45.8 - - 46.2 - - 41.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 51.5 - - 60.8 - - 64.2 - - 62.6 - - 59.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 42.7 - - 44.3 - - 44.5 - - 44.9 - - 40.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -21 - - 36 - - 18 - - -17 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1570 - - 2625 - - 1700 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96583 58 277 64 271 67 273 66 278 65 274 96583 89429 44 279 42 275 46 284 42 277 40 287 89429 83951 29 282 28 280 35 282 26 293 23 283 83951 79415 22 288 20 286 29 270 24 283 18 310 79415 75500 19 288 19 300 19 285 18 278 26 302 75500 71997 10 298 14 293 21 292 20 300 24 293 71997 68818 14 328 7 260 17 261 20 292 14 303 68818 65927 17 324 5 309 8 263 14 281 17 306 65927 63256 24 310 16 327 11 322 15 310 22 293 63256 60669 19 287 13 298 7 293 12 309 21 285 60669 57983 15 323 24 332 19 346 15 347 15 333 57983 55216 31 331 36 320 32 314 23 318 23 332 55216 52576 28 345 20 325 25 298 35 279 22 314 52576 50178 13 360 8 357 17 287 23 275 22 317 50178 48013 21 050 30 355 29 336 26 322 27 329 48013 46044 44 007 50 349 39 337 30 328 29 323 46044 44232 65 353 53 341 36 349 30 338 26 324 44232 42543 63 349 45 357 37 359 32 355 29 339 42543 40960 56 001 50 019 42 010 37 006 29 351 40960 39477 59 022 58 023 51 016 43 010 32 003 39477 38089 70 031 65 024 57 018 49 011 39 006 38089 36760 76 033 66 026 59 019 53 011 45 007 36760 35425 76 038 62 029 57 022 52 014 49 007 35425 34055 73 041 57 038 52 023 48 018 49 009 34055 32654 70 043 54 045 49 023 42 023 39 010 32654 31209 69 045 52 047 46 032 38 025 33 016 31209 29711 69 049 50 045 43 041 36 029 31 026 29711 28159 67 053 48 047 41 042 36 034 30 036 28159 26550 63 054 46 053 40 043 37 037 33 032 26550 24887 60 058 46 056 39 047 37 039 36 031 24887 23179 56 058 48 056 39 050 37 043 35 041 23179 21420 45 055 49 059 40 054 37 051 33 052 21420 19605 33 056 46 064 40 059 37 061 33 056 19605 17762 26 061 34 059 38 064 38 064 34 058 17762 15988 20 062 22 056 31 060 34 063 35 064 15988 14374 14 063 18 051 22 052 25 053 29 065 14374 12941 10 072 15 044 15 048 16 045 19 060 12941 11666 8 085 9 063 7 058 8 066 12 063 11666 10524 9 094 8 093 5 088 7 089 9 083 10524 9499 13 092 9 095 7 088 10 089 10 101 9499 8580 18 086 12 089 11 080 14 083 13 101 8580 7760 23 079 15 083 14*074 18 076 17 097 7760 7028 27 072 17*077 15*071 21*072 20 091 7028 6366 28 067 16*073 15 069 20*069 22 085 6366 5775 23 063 14 071 14 069 16 068 21 078 5775 5278 15 055 11 070 13 068 11 066 17 067 5278 4894 7 038 9 069 11 068 5 062 11 050 4894 4628 3 319 6 070 9 068 0 300 6 020 4628 4466 5*280 5 071 8 068 3 254 4*332 4466 4373 5*273 3 071 6 067 4 250 5*302 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography