DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 07/13 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 76.2 - - 89.8 - - 94.1 - - 91.8 - - 81.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 67 - - 484 - - 279 - - 70 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1163 - - 5446 - - 10836 - - 7726 - - 1677 BL Depth Hcrit 4358 - - 8829 - - 12884 - - 9606 - - 4359 Hcrit BL Top 5991 - - 10274 - - 15664 - - 12554 - - 6505 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 884 - - 4514 - - 2766 - - 4839 - - 4800 Hgt.Variab. W* 187 - - 575 - - 602 - - 376 - - 58 W* B/S 9 - - 21 - - 12 - - 8 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 5 - - 9 - - 8 - - 11 BL Wind Direction 322 - - 173 - - 146 - - 177 - - 295 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 6 - - 16 - - 7 - - 9 Wind Shear Max.Converg -6 - - -17 - - -21 - - 26 - - 14 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -430 - - -1632 - - 2061 - - 442 - - -11 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6422 - - 11907 - - 13604 - - 12112 - - 6517 sfcLCL ODpotential -4808 - - -3548 - - 1073 - - -1705 - - -3489 ODpotential blCL 10799 - - 13822 - - 14591 - - 14259 - - 9994 blCL maxRH 82 - - 72 - - 101 - - 99 - - 73 maxRH CAPE 930 - - 280 - - 340 - - 720 - - 2910 CAPE Temp@2m 76.2 - - 89.8 - - 94.1 - - 91.8 - - 81.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 62.6 - - 52.4 - - 49.2 - - 53.6 - - 67.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.6 - - 88.0 - - 93.0 - - 92.2 - - 83.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 61.8 - - 52.3 - - 49.2 - - 52.8 - - 65.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 67 - - 484 - - 279 - - 70 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1163 - - 5446 - - 10836 - - 7726 - - 1677 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 28 - - 0 - - 102 - - 97 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 9 - - 8 - - 9 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99196 47 110 45 108 38 114 34 106 35 094 99196 91664 41 095 42 106 40 100 39 106 37 102 91664 85912 33 087 36 100 39 096 34 099 37 102 85912 81161 32 095 29 096 34 099 24 087 31 091 81161 77052 24 099 28 098 31 102 25 095 30 084 77052 73408 17 097 28 103 27 102 31 098 30 094 73408 70135 21 111 24 105 20 105 26 092 27 103 70135 67168 26 119 21 116 16 115 18 094 21 106 67168 64439 25 120 26 131 24 126 20 116 22 116 64439 61804 24 120 31 129 35 137 27 141 24 130 61804 59075 28 128 31 128 37 143 30 148 27 141 59075 56269 29 130 26 134 29 149 26 151 28 148 56269 53602 34 140 31 150 31 158 30 161 28 163 53602 51207 39 149 42 150 41 155 41 161 36 168 51207 49053 40 155 44 148 44 153 44 159 44 160 49053 47081 42 158 40 154 42 154 43 159 44 156 47081 45257 44 159 38 162 34 155 36 159 42 158 45257 43564 40 156 36 162 29 156 30 156 35 152 43564 41982 30 163 33 162 29 151 27 148 30 150 41982 40496 31 178 31 168 27 147 26 149 29 154 40496 39092 26 168 28 172 26 151 25 152 29 152 39092 37739 18 151 23 173 26 157 24 151 26 152 37739 36374 13 152 21 166 24 157 23 147 23 145 36374 34967 11 159 18 156 17 154 20 139 21 136 34967 33524 10 150 16 137 16 146 18 137 18 127 33524 32032 11 155 14 114 16 137 16 148 16 129 32032 30479 10 163 12 120 14 132 14 156 13 152 30479 28870 11 169 9 144 12 127 13 141 12 164 28870 27209 12 159 8 153 12 125 16 136 13 163 27209 25501 12 139 11 140 14 127 18 139 15 154 25501 23749 12 129 13 136 14 126 17 131 16 137 23749 21949 16 140 17 140 17 123 17 123 19 123 21949 20094 28 140 22 140 16 126 17 120 22 118 20094 18219 38 127 27 137 18 116 18 110 27 117 18219 16418 35 127 29 130 18*116 18 098 28 112 16418 14776 24 129 24 124 18*117 15 100 23 107 14776 13305 18 125 17 123 14 123 10*111 16 112 13305 11987 16 129 14 129 12 129 7*134 7 145 11987 10805 17 129 11*138 10 137 7 146 5 225 10805 9741 17 121 8*147 9 153 7 174 6 258 9741 8786 13 107 6 158 8 162 8 183 9 279 8786 7932 8 071 5 164 8 166 9 186 10 288 7932 7168 7 034 4 173 8 171 9 187 11*292 7168 6475 6*009 4 182 8 174 10 187 12*293 6475 5854 5*347 5 187 8 177 10 187 13 294 5854 5332 4 327 5 190 8 181 10 187 12 294 5332 4926 4 316 5 194 8 182 10 187 11 295 4926 4645 4 309 5 195 8 183 10 186 8 298 4645 4474 3 301 5 196 8 184 9 186 6 301 4474 4375 3 299 5 196 7 184 8 186 4 304 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography