DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/08 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.7 - - 68.1 - - 74.1 - - 69.9 - - 60.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 165 - - 185 - - -10 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1821 - - 5722 - - 4845 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5684 - - 8612 - - 4358 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6649 - - 10550 - - 9673 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 537 - - 2392 - - 2237 - - 2361 - - 645 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 281 - - 427 - - 51 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 51 - - 70 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 1 - - 1 - - 6 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 358 - - 158 - - 013 - - 091 - - 047 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 10 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -13 - - -11 - - -19 - - 21 - - -19 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5052 - - -6299 - - -3794 - - -3306 - - -5843 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9427 - - 12949 - - 14344 - - 12980 - - 10217 sfcLCL ODpotential -13973 - - -12826 - - -8736 - - -8792 - - -12905 ODpotential blCL 18347 - - 19475 - - 19286 - - 18465 - - 17279 blCL maxRH 40 - - 47 - - 61 - - 55 - - 42 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 53.7 - - 68.1 - - 74.1 - - 69.9 - - 60.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.3 - - 26.6 - - 26.2 - - 28.3 - - 31.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.2 - - 67.8 - - 73.7 - - 72.8 - - 64.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.7 - - 26.1 - - 25.5 - - 27.6 - - 31.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 165 - - 185 - - -10 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1821 - - 5722 - - 4845 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96775 10 301 18 272 16 244 23 268 26 293 96775 89530 14 305 15 292 8 301 12 283 17 285 89530 83950 13 297 12 290 14 316 11 323 11 314 83950 79324 11 321 11 316 17 316 13 318 16 352 79324 75346 16 312 14 329 15 311 15 321 16 353 75346 71834 22 312 13 332 19 314 24 319 22 335 71834 68662 26 314 21 332 21 320 23 326 23 338 68662 65766 23 314 24 324 26 323 24 330 25 341 65766 63094 24 328 25 314 28 314 27 320 28 320 63094 60513 28 328 26 308 29 308 27 314 29 316 60513 57825 30 319 28 307 31 305 34 314 35 315 57825 55035 36 309 36 303 39 304 42 307 40 305 55035 52364 45 297 40 303 40 299 45 299 45 306 52364 49953 47 294 41 304 40 302 44 301 48 310 49953 47795 47 297 37 306 38 304 47 303 50 313 47795 45845 43 302 36 315 35 307 44 299 51 317 45845 44059 37 314 33 319 34 319 44 309 48 326 44059 42404 33 325 34 328 38 325 49 318 46 338 42404 40856 31 327 35 331 39 328 50 324 48 345 40856 39404 31 321 34 328 40 331 49 328 44 349 39404 38041 29 316 31 325 39 331 47 327 40 349 38041 36735 26 315 27 323 37 329 44 322 40 342 36735 35418 27 310 24 320 37 331 39 319 39 341 35418 34065 27 304 25 322 37 323 37 324 35 352 34065 32678 27 302 28 330 37 317 40 331 34 007 32678 31245 27 300 29 335 36 314 41 332 31 012 31245 29754 26 296 29 333 33 314 37 325 25 007 29754 28207 25 297 28 323 30 313 33 323 25 005 28207 26604 28 302 28 304 27 314 30 330 24 001 26604 24948 27 302 29 292 25 314 28 336 22 359 24948 23245 25 300 29 290 24 313 26 339 21 007 23245 21491 25 300 26 293 23 317 23 345 21 016 21491 19678 25 306 24 299 19 324 19 356 18 025 19678 17838 24 312 20 308 16 333 15 008 15 031 17838 16069 22 318 17 318 14 336 12 024 15 038 16069 14457 20 321 16 321 13 333 12 033 15 045 14457 13020 19 322 16 317 12 336 11 031 15 054 13020 11736 15 322 14 314 10 001 8 023 12 057 11736 10586 10 319 10 314 8*030 3*052 7 058 10586 9554 6 316 6 316 6*036 3*097 2 068 9554 8628 3 332 3 332 5 040 3 105 2 130 8628 7801 2 029 3 077 3 038 4 100 3 141 7801 7062 2 101 6*091 1 023 5 094 4 118 7062 6391 3 133 5*088 1 272 7 090 7 079 6391 5792 4 107 2 092 2 245 8 087 13 070 5792 5288 6 075 1 215 3 240 8 086 19 067 5288 4899 7 060 2 227 3 236 8 086 22 063 4899 4630 8 035 3 228 3 235 7 086 18 059 4630 4467 6*016 3 228 3 236 6 086 13*055 4467 4373 5*358 3 229 3 236 4 084 6*047 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography