DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/14 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.5 - - 51.9 - - 55.0 - - 54.7 - - 48.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 22 - - 0 - - -1 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 489 - - 2576 - - 4019 - - 3372 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 5317 - - 7404 - - 8847 - - 8200 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2736 - - 3168 - - 2955 - - 3500 - - 3914 Hgt.Variab. W* 26 - - 177 - - 141 - - 0 - - 7 W* B/S 1 - - 6 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 10 - - 9 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 196 - - 235 - - 281 - - 274 - - 312 Direction Wind Shear 7 - - 9 - - 10 - - 10 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg 17 - - 20 - - 10 - - 13 - - -8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 944 - - 2507 - - 2673 - - 2016 - - -429 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4373 - - 4898 - - 6174 - - 6184 - - 4803 sfcLCL ODpotential -178 - - 661 - - 299 - - -626 - - -3354 ODpotential blCL 5495 - - 6743 - - 8548 - - 8826 - - 7728 blCL maxRH 101 - - 100 - - 97 - - 99 - - 82 maxRH CAPE 180 - - 160 - - 100 - - 50 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.5 - - 51.9 - - 55.0 - - 54.7 - - 48.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 46.4 - - 45.4 - - 43.0 - - 42.6 - - 42.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.7 - - 52.8 - - 56.3 - - 57.2 - - 53.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 46.0 - - 44.3 - - 41.7 - - 41.3 - - 41.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 22 - - 0 - - -1 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 489 - - 2576 - - 4019 - - 3372 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 102 - - 100 - - 89 - - 95 - - 27 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96555 34 283 36 266 43 271 49 265 45 284 96555 89326 21 283 27 279 22 277 29 274 31 287 89326 83820 17 296 23 279 15 292 20 283 24 288 83820 79269 21 308 15 280 25 266 19 311 18 285 79269 75332 20 303 13 299 22 252 25 296 18 299 75332 71854 22 307 16 306 9 267 17 269 20 294 71854 68717 30 297 16 293 13 284 13 286 13 287 68717 65827 29 284 16 316 16 316 13 317 7 293 65827 63140 15 294 17 325 14 350 18 286 16 292 63140 60540 23 316 19 311 16 341 31 282 24 297 60540 57841 38 315 37 309 42 294 37 303 36 309 57841 55046 57 317 51 313 46 302 44 321 34 319 55046 52359 65 312 70 315 61 318 60 331 49 327 52359 49926 70 309 81 308 72 304 65 312 50 317 49926 47738 72 306 75 308 61 300 57 315 45 314 47738 45747 72 306 73 316 61 317 56 320 55 323 45747 43927 76 308 78 318 74 316 72 316 66 314 43927 42252 86 311 86 314 82 308 76 305 64 307 42252 40692 97 315 91 314 79 309 70 304 57 309 40692 39230 111 318 96 319 80 315 69 310 57 313 39230 37858 123 317 101 319 85 313 73 312 58 315 37858 36540 128 315 101 316 87 310 75 311 60 315 36540 35212 127 313 99 314 85 310 74 310 61 312 35212 33846 123 312 98 311 82 311 71 312 59 310 33846 32446 116 313 97 308 80 313 68 314 54 309 32446 31000 110 312 96 306 80 312 66 315 50 310 31000 29496 105 310 94 306 78 308 64 315 47 313 29496 27939 101 309 92 309 74 306 62 313 46 314 27939 26332 97 308 89 311 71 307 61 311 45 312 26332 24675 96 306 85 312 69 310 58 311 45 311 24675 22971 96 308 82 310 67 309 56 314 44 311 22971 21214 92 309 79 309 66 305 54 316 41 313 21214 19398 83 305 75 312 65 304 53 316 37 316 19398 17562 73 298 68 310 62 308 51 315 35 320 17562 15805 52 292 61 303 55 313 47 316 32 322 15805 14213 32 291 51 293 47 315 43 318 30 324 14213 12798 25 280 35 282 33 308 33 319 26 326 12798 11539 24 269 23 273 20 291 21 313 22 324 11539 10414 24 262 20 270 19 287 16 303 17 316 10414 9409 24 256 18 266 17*285 15 299 12 306 9409 8511 24 252 15 262 15*280 12*288 10 305 8511 7708 22 249 12*257 13 277 12*280 9 313 7708 6991 19 245 10*252 12 277 11 273 10 314 6991 6340 16 240 7 247 10 280 11 271 10 310 6340 5758 12*233 5 236 9 283 10 272 11 304 5758 5267 8*220 4 215 8 286 9 273 11 296 5267 4888 6 201 3 206 7 288 7 276 11 295 4888 4625 4 176 3 204 7 289 5 279 8 303 4625 4465 4 164 3 200 6 291 3 286 6*311 4465 4373 3 161 2 198 5 292 1 310 4*330 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography