DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/29 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.2 - - 61.1 - - 63.7 - - 62.7 - - 57.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -29 - - 12 - - -4 - - -6 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 771 - - 1327 - - 1549 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5599 - - 6155 - - 6377 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1097 - - 2254 - - 3609 - - 3695 - - 3360 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 121 - - 116 - - 55 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 065 - - 118 - - 142 - - 167 - - 073 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 9 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -12 - - -3 - - 4 - - 17 - - -8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2876 - - -1828 - - -1121 - - -987 - - -2068 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7250 - - 7427 - - 7276 - - 7365 - - 6442 sfcLCL ODpotential -9796 - - -7099 - - -6090 - - -6429 - - -6984 ODpotential blCL 14170 - - 12698 - - 12245 - - 12806 - - 11358 blCL maxRH 73 - - 84 - - 95 - - 87 - - 77 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 140 - - 130 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m 52.2 - - 61.1 - - 63.7 - - 62.7 - - 57.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.9 - - 43.8 - - 46.8 - - 45.5 - - 44.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.2 - - 62.1 - - 65.2 - - 66.9 - - 63.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 34.8 - - 42.5 - - 45.6 - - 44.2 - - 43.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -29 - - 12 - - -4 - - -6 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 771 - - 1327 - - 1549 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 36 - - 82 - - 49 - - 8 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97041 47 276 56 268 54 272 55 266 59 275 97041 89775 34 275 41 267 43 270 42 279 42 283 89775 84219 30 263 32 267 34 269 35 287 31 280 84219 79630 25 255 21 270 23 268 26 270 26 273 79630 75684 22 259 18 268 24 270 20 269 19 272 75684 72174 19 250 21 265 23 255 18 248 17 274 72174 68963 21 245 21 263 21 240 20 243 23 259 68963 66002 22 243 23 253 25 246 24 260 24 249 66002 63243 21 240 30 240 33 243 25 255 21 258 63243 60541 21 250 36 235 36 234 31 249 28 261 60541 57709 34 254 35 233 35 231 44 238 38 248 57709 54787 45 242 36 229 38 234 45 234 45 242 54787 52025 48 241 40 227 42 237 48 242 47 251 52025 49565 52 243 45 230 49 237 50 242 55 255 49565 47371 54 239 48 232 52 234 49 241 57 248 47371 45388 53 233 48 232 50 229 47 240 55 240 45388 43581 50 229 45 232 48 226 46 238 48 235 43581 41925 49 227 45 231 46 222 44 233 42 232 41925 40392 49 228 48 224 43 220 42 230 38 228 40392 38963 46 227 47 220 42 222 41 229 36 223 38963 37620 46 224 46 220 40 220 40 229 35 220 37620 36331 47 225 43 223 39 219 40 228 34 221 36331 35033 47 226 42 224 39 216 40 230 36 229 35033 33697 45 230 40 225 40 213 41 235 34 232 33697 32328 41 228 39 224 40 214 39 237 32 231 32328 30910 38 226 35 224 37 215 38 235 31 230 30910 29433 35 225 32 225 33 213 36 227 29 228 29433 27900 34 219 30 228 34 213 34 221 27 227 27900 26314 34 218 28 227 36 211 32 223 29 224 26314 24680 35 219 31 219 36 210 34 225 33 220 24680 23003 33 220 35 214 36 216 37 223 35 214 23003 21278 29 222 34 217 35 220 35 219 36 218 21278 19497 27 225 34 222 34 219 34 220 37 225 19497 17692 27 227 34 222 33 222 33 223 35 221 17692 15953 29 225 32 220 32 223 32 223 34 213 15953 14366 28 220 31 218 31 221 30 220 32 212 14366 12947 26 215 28 215 30 218 27 216 31 214 12947 11677 23 213 26 208 29 211 25 209 29 213 11677 10536 20 211 24 199 27 202 23 201 26 208 10536 9512 18 207 22 191 24 193 21 192 22 200 9512 8595 16 198 20 186 20 186 19 183 19 191 8595 7776 15 187 19 183 17 184 16 178 17 183 7776 7043 14 177 17 178 15 183 14 178 15 178 7043 6380 13 170 14 171 13*179 11*180 12 177 6380 5787 10 162 11*163 10*171 10*178 9 176 5787 5286 7 141 8*146 7 154 9 175 6 170 5286 4899 6 108 5 114 5 125 7 166 4 146 4899 4631 7 086 5 104 5 113 6 152 4 105 4631 4467 7*072 4 103 5 108 5 135 5*082 4467 4373 6*065 4 100 4 105 4 124 5*073 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography