DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 02/17 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 38.2 - - 42.7 - - 45.5 - - 45.0 - - 43.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 0 - - 44 - - -9 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 293 - - 4083 - - 4856 - - 3593 - - 291 BL Depth Hcrit 4355 - - 4356 - - 6733 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 5121 - - 8911 - - 9684 - - 8421 - - 5119 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2684 - - 2345 - - 3175 - - 3271 - - 5310 Hgt.Variab. W* 30 - - 117 - - 256 - - 73 - - 27 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 16 - - 15 - - 17 - - 12 BL Wind Direction 229 - - 244 - - 245 - - 224 - - 164 Direction Wind Shear 11 - - 13 - - 14 - - 14 - - 9 Wind Shear Max.Converg 23 - - 63 - - 49 - - 62 - - 29 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 449 - - 2521 - - 2868 - - 2334 - - 96 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4672 - - 6391 - - 6816 - - 6087 - - 5023 sfcLCL ODpotential -2039 - - 295 - - 1433 - - 624 - - -1651 ODpotential blCL 7160 - - 8616 - - 8251 - - 7797 - - 6770 blCL maxRH 74 - - 100 - - 99 - - 100 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 40 - - 110 - - 110 - - 130 CAPE Temp@2m 38.2 - - 42.7 - - 45.5 - - 45.0 - - 43.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 33.1 - - 30.1 - - 31.0 - - 33.6 - - 36.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 39.9 - - 44.0 - - 46.2 - - 46.5 - - 45.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 32.0 - - 28.9 - - 30.1 - - 33.1 - - 36.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 0 - - 44 - - -9 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 293 - - 4083 - - 4856 - - 3593 - - 291 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 99 - - 96 - - 101 - - 97 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96755 31 107 22 095 31 105 24 110 9 103 96755 89563 26 112 21 119 17 116 17 094 12 105 89563 83986 15 124 13 133 13 135 6 114 12 104 83986 79352 9 126 6 142 8 104 2 099 7 090 79352 75352 8 140 10 164 7 190 4 188 5 118 75352 71801 7 346 2 004 4 210 10 242 1 308 71801 68571 12 307 5 288 4 145 7 176 1 044 68571 65585 25 221 33 205 21 245 19 263 25 246 65585 62852 20 223 33 205 28 267 38 242 33 229 62852 60230 34 240 22 233 27 249 38 226 25 227 60230 57465 39 238 44 248 35 202 32 244 30 256 57465 54549 46 248 57 252 48 250 53 260 50 266 54549 51742 54 253 62 250 69 260 70 253 71 262 51742 49216 69 259 71 255 78 258 82 253 89 258 49216 46957 91 261 89 260 89 259 89 254 97 257 46957 44904 108 258 107 261 100 258 95 259 104 261 44904 43024 116 256 121 260 107 259 112 264 120 264 43024 41295 125 256 136 257 120 262 132 263 139 263 41295 39696 148 257 147 254 143 261 147 259 150 259 39696 38205 174 256 146 253 164 257 157 257 152 257 38205 36814 179 253 150 257 164 253 165 258 149 257 36814 35489 178 252 167 259 157 254 173 260 147 258 35489 34166 178 253 177 257 159 257 180 261 150 259 34166 32812 180 254 178 255 162 259 181 261 157 259 32812 31426 181 256 179 255 161 259 170 258 162 258 31426 29998 179 258 177 255 153 259 153 255 152 256 29998 28525 163 257 164 254 137 259 131 255 131 257 28525 27017 151 250 141 253 122 260 112 262 108 262 27017 25475 148 246 120 253 108 260 102 266 93 265 25475 23894 142 243 100 255 90 259 91 266 83 265 23894 22272 129 241 80 257 72 265 81 267 75 265 22272 20602 106 244 66 260 66 277 73 270 70 266 20602 18876 77 251 57 263 63 282 65 271 65 266 18876 17128 59 255 54 266 58 280 58 269 60 265 17128 15451 48 252 50 266 51 277 50 265 53 261 15451 13929 41 248 44 265 38 274 39 260 43 255 13929 12576 37 247 38 263 28 267 29 253 34 246 12576 11365 34 249 31 260 26 263 26 247 30 237 11365 10278 32 253 26 254 24*260 24 246 29 230 10278 9300 30 257 23*247 22*257 23*243 28 225 9300 8422 29 259 21*243 19 251 21*238 27 220 8422 7638 28 260 19 243 16 245 19 233 26 215 7638 6936 27 260 18 244 15 242 18 227 24 208 6936 6300 25 259 17 244 14 241 17 223 22 200 6300 5730 21 257 16 245 13 239 16 218 19 190 5730 5249 16*255 15 245 12 238 15 216 17*180 5249 4877 10*249 13 245 12 238 14 213 15*170 4877 4620 4 228 12 245 11 237 13 212 13 163 4620 4463 2 182 10 244 10 236 11 210 10 161 4463 4372 2 125 8 243 8 235 8 209 7 159 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography