DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/23 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.8 - - 79.2 - - 86.0 - - 76.9 - - 71.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 23 - - 344 - - 376 - - -8 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1246 - - 4127 - - 10540 - - 1773 - - 278 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 7667 - - 12836 - - 4358 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 6074 - - 8955 - - 15368 - - 6601 - - 5106 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2207 - - 4458 - - 2539 - - 9049 - - 2218 Hgt.Variab. W* 129 - - 469 - - 660 - - 113 - - 27 W* B/S 8 - - 36 - - 110 - - 2 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 8 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 126 - - 166 - - 199 - - 088 - - 104 Direction Wind Shear 5 - - 4 - - 9 - - 6 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -14 - - 12 - - -5 - - 7 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2535 - - -1126 - - 2552 - - -493 - - 174 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8609 - - 10082 - - 12817 - - 7094 - - 4932 sfcLCL ODpotential -5639 - - -3058 - - 978 - - -3751 - - -3721 ODpotential blCL 11713 - - 12013 - - 14390 - - 10352 - - 8827 blCL maxRH 85 - - 79 - - 85 - - 87 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 120 - - 540 - - 470 - - 2540 - - 2730 CAPE Temp@2m 70.8 - - 79.2 - - 86.0 - - 76.9 - - 71.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.2 - - 49.9 - - 44.5 - - 60.4 - - 63.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 71.6 - - 78.0 - - 84.6 - - 78.6 - - 73.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 48.1 - - 49.7 - - 44.3 - - 59.0 - - 62.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 23 - - 344 - - 376 - - -8 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1246 - - 4127 - - 10540 - - 1773 - - 278 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 42 - - 17 - - 40 - - 47 - - 93 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 6 - - 11 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98385 4 137 4 200 11 218 5 226 8 319 98385 90993 11 131 6 137 9 183 8 193 4 344 90993 85316 9 084 10 103 5 128 6 124 4 114 85316 80600 5 085 8 060 7 074 6 046 10 087 80600 76534 6 092 1 342 9 074 4 047 9 047 76534 72945 6 087 5 105 6 092 5 123 0 014 72945 69712 5 046 5 096 5 110 1 129 5 117 69712 66752 5 179 2 120 7 148 4 256 2 092 66752 64005 7 160 4 287 4 171 5 235 6 327 64005 61335 10 238 13 221 12 247 11 262 11 295 61335 58553 13 218 19 210 18 225 16 237 16 255 58553 55685 11 212 21 209 21 217 20 218 20 226 55685 52957 18 225 24 211 26 215 23 214 23 215 52957 50497 25 228 28 214 30 212 27 212 26 218 50497 48282 32 228 31 218 34 209 32 212 32 217 48282 46268 41 225 36 217 36 206 38 212 36 214 46268 44423 48 216 40 212 39 201 45 210 39 210 44423 42724 52 203 42 206 42 196 47 204 40 211 42724 41149 58 190 44 198 41 194 43 200 42 215 41149 39683 70 183 48 188 40 195 40 199 51 218 39683 38310 72 182 52 184 38 197 35 201 61 212 38310 36990 70 185 49 187 34 203 30 205 62 208 36990 35659 59 193 44 193 30 208 24 209 57 210 35659 34290 37 206 36 201 23 206 21 206 37 211 34290 32891 27 211 24 201 19 199 18 198 21 195 32891 31445 23 221 18 206 18 202 16 197 17 183 31445 29940 22 230 17 222 14 226 14 218 15 202 29940 28378 18 234 15 224 14 229 12 234 15 231 28378 26763 15 233 11 223 12 217 13 234 15 246 26763 25098 12 238 9 228 11 219 10 224 13 248 25098 23388 11 245 7 241 8 230 6 233 8 256 23388 21625 9 245 6 255 6 232 3 270 3 233 21625 19804 6 231 5 227 5 186 2 201 1 206 19804 17960 5 212 5 218 2 146 3 186 1 021 17960 16188 6 225 4 237 4*019 4 257 3 022 16188 14576 6 224 1 187 4*023 7 273 7 356 14576 13137 4 211 3 103 3 022 7 270 8 350 13137 11847 4 185 4 112 1 015 4 255 6 344 11847 10685 4 174 4 109 0 242 2 176 2 030 10685 9640 4 176 4*108 1 201 4 127 4 134 9640 8701 4 189 3*115 2 197 6 115 8 148 8701 7863 4 193 2 133 3 198 8 106 9 150 7863 7112 6 180 2 153 3 200 10*096 9 142 7112 6431 7*171 2 167 4 201 10*090 9 132 6431 5823 5*164 3 183 4 201 10 088 8 128 5823 5310 3 153 3 188 4 200 9 087 7*129 5310 4913 4 117 3 192 5 200 8 086 4*131 4913 4639 4 085 3 194 5 201 7 087 2 108 4639 4471 3 078 4 196 5 201 6 086 2 069 4471 4374 2 074 3 196 4 201 4 087 2 041 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography