DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 MtDiablo 712ft pt33457@37.708,-121.962 SPONSORED BY: Bay Area Paragliding Association - BAPA NOTE: Sfc.elevation based on smoothed model topo so represents plain around Mt Diablo, not the peak RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1559z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 51.9 - - 65.3 - - 69.4 - - 64.0 - - 53.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 154 - - 258 - - 90 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 611 - - 1082 - - 668 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 712 - - 713 - - 1176 - - 713 - - 712 Hcrit BL Top 729 - - 1324 - - 1795 - - 1381 - - 729 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 186 - - 346 - - 385 - - 453 - - 768 Hgt.Variab. W* 2 - - 186 - - 266 - - 160 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 8 - - 10 - - 10 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 243 - - 255 - - 271 - - 273 - - 266 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -447 - - -2245 - - -3047 - - -2228 - - -209 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1176 - - 3569 - - 4842 - - 3609 - - 938 sfcLCL ODpotential -9767 - - -8927 - - -8789 - - -9192 - - -9433 ODpotential blCL 10496 - - 10251 - - 10584 - - 10573 - - 10162 blCL maxRH 76 - - 66 - - 59 - - 69 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 51.9 - - 65.3 - - 69.4 - - 64.0 - - 53.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 49.4 - - 52.4 - - 51.0 - - 50.9 - - 51.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.3 - - 64.1 - - 68.0 - - 63.2 - - 54.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 51.5 - - 51.8 - - 50.5 - - 50.7 - - 51.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 154 - - 258 - - 90 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 611 - - 1082 - - 668 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 5 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 75 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97774 9 323 11 268 20 280 23 295 20 297 97774 90471 16 301 15 291 14 279 16 285 20 293 90471 84841 15 288 14 268 17 275 14 294 13 282 84841 80165 9 263 10 267 15 261 15 294 8 297 80165 76134 7 296 8 269 10 259 11 275 9 310 76134 72575 14 325 5 242 8 260 13 262 9 297 72575 69355 17 309 7 307 5 261 11 250 11 255 69355 66399 15 284 11 312 5 228 12 246 14 253 66399 63674 13 264 14 288 10 260 14 242 18 254 63674 61044 14 264 18 270 19 275 16 260 20 241 61044 58304 13 273 22 260 26 269 23 271 22 245 58304 55472 24 273 25 262 29 263 27 269 26 254 55472 52768 34 273 30 269 32 266 34 264 32 258 52768 50329 36 273 33 274 32 268 36 264 36 255 50329 48134 37 273 34 269 34 265 37 264 37 258 48134 46128 37 272 34 266 37 264 38 265 38 262 46128 44275 42 272 40 268 39 265 38 265 38 261 44275 42550 46 271 43 271 40 267 38 263 39 258 42550 40937 47 270 45 269 43 265 40 261 41 256 40937 39423 46 269 45 267 46 263 42 262 41 257 39423 38002 43 271 44 266 46 262 45 262 43 259 38002 36640 39 275 40 268 43 260 45 259 46 259 36640 35272 35 284 33 271 35 258 40 259 44 256 35272 33861 28 284 28 278 30 258 34 253 37 258 33861 32399 24 289 26 282 26 260 29 252 33 248 32399 30871 22 298 23 285 22 264 26 253 30 243 30871 29263 21 302 19 288 19 265 23 254 25 245 29263 27575 17 301 16 285 17 265 21 259 22 248 27575 25804 14 298 14 280 17 267 18 267 20 255 25804 23952 14 301 13 284 15 272 16 273 16 259 23952 22026 12 311 11 293 12 285 13 282 12 264 22026 20017 11 316 8 311 7 288 8 274 11 257 20017 17919 9 327 6 316 5 276 7 254 10 253 17919 15777 6 325 4 278 6 240 8 240 11 247 15777 13718 6 267 8 259 8 241 8 231 9 229 13718 11847 8 239 11 243 11 235 11 235 10 230 11847 10185 10 238 14 226 14 232 12 236 11 227 10185 8709 9 248 14 229 15 232 14 236 13 229 8709 7396 10 268 11 230 14 230 16 236 14 230 7396 6230 9 270 10 231 14 230 16 237 14 231 6230 5198 8 262 10 230 13 231 14 240 14 231 5198 4290 8 256 11 233 12 237 12 244 13 232 4290 3491 9 255 11 239 11 245 11 248 13 238 3491 2780 10 247 10 241 10 256 11 257 13 242 2780 2156 11 234 10 240 10*268 12 271 13 260 2156 1642 11 236 10*248 11*271 12*274 14 269 1642 1252 11 244 9*254 11 271 12*273 14 271 1252 984 10 246 8 255 10 271 11 272 12 269 984 822 7*241 8 256 10 271 10 273 9*267 822 729 3*243 6 255 8 270 8 272 5*266 729 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography