DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 KagelMt_CA 3537ft pt26848@34.438,-118.271,3301ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.8 degF SPONSORED BY: Sylmar Hang Gliding Association RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1559z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.4 - - 76.9 - - 80.4 - - 75.5 - - 66.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -32 - - 284 - - 358 - - 88 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3880 - - 6796 - - 1499 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 2606 - - 6094 - - 8473 - - 2607 - - 2606 Hcrit BL Top 2624 - - 7417 - - 10333 - - 5036 - - 2624 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1205 - - 2664 - - 1071 - - 4770 - - 2409 Hgt.Variab. W* 2 - - 424 - - 552 - - 209 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 24 - - 22 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 047 - - 043 - - 012 - - 257 - - 346 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 14 - - 4 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg -31 - - 34 - - 61 - - 31 - - -15 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7538 - - -5329 - - -3117 - - -5968 - - -5637 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10162 - - 12747 - - 13451 - - 11004 - - 8262 sfcLCL ODpotential -14527 - - -10837 - - -8048 - - -11024 - - -11481 ODpotential blCL 17151 - - 18254 - - 18381 - - 16060 - - 14105 blCL maxRH 63 - - 62 - - 55 - - 39 - - 37 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 65.4 - - 76.9 - - 80.4 - - 75.5 - - 66.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.6 - - 29.9 - - 30.1 - - 36.4 - - 39.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 69.7 - - 75.6 - - 78.8 - - 75.4 - - 71.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.5 - - 29.7 - - 29.9 - - 36.3 - - 39.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -32 - - 284 - - 358 - - 88 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3880 - - 6796 - - 1499 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97838 22 295 25 278 24 268 37 287 32 299 97838 90553 17 287 21 290 18 276 26 285 24 289 90553 84939 18 284 19 292 17 276 18 283 20 281 84939 80273 17 275 17 295 15 279 14 281 17 288 80273 76243 11 273 12 278 16 274 14 284 13 297 76243 72672 4 270 7 239 16 258 16 292 13 300 72672 69437 1 257 3 231 9 237 11 281 11 282 69437 66483 3 290 6 306 5 212 9 254 12 263 66483 63771 9 275 11 273 8 238 10 261 10 262 63771 61162 9 254 12 259 13 236 13 255 11 258 61162 58450 15 274 15 271 16 248 17 244 16 254 58450 55652 27 261 24 266 22 265 22 255 23 259 55652 52993 30 252 29 258 27 263 27 255 27 256 52993 50591 32 258 33 259 32 262 31 256 33 258 50591 48416 39 264 37 260 37 262 37 256 40 256 48416 46424 46 266 43 259 43 261 42 257 44 253 46424 44581 50 264 49 257 50 260 48 259 46 252 44581 42863 52 260 53 254 53 257 52 259 47 252 42863 41250 50 259 50 254 48 256 50 258 45 253 41250 39733 47 261 44 257 43 254 45 257 43 252 39733 38305 44 262 41 260 37 254 41 256 40 252 38305 36935 41 262 38 260 35 257 38 254 37 252 36935 35555 36 264 33 259 31 258 34 257 35 254 35555 34134 29 279 26 263 25 253 32 255 32 253 34134 32676 25 295 18 284 16 252 27 253 31 255 32676 31167 21 311 13 300 11 259 18 251 26 256 31167 29593 16 317 12 306 9 282 12 268 19 259 29593 27954 13 329 9 328 7 318 10 315 8 289 27954 26251 10 028 10 009 7 012 7 346 6 314 26251 24482 12 032 11 031 9 031 9 017 5 330 24482 22656 14 038 13 048 8 039 10 013 9 009 22656 20772 16 042 14 050 12 045 9 030 11 021 20772 18822 16 034 14 041 14 040 11 046 11 043 18822 16842 13 024 12 034 13 034 12 050 11 057 16842 14939 8 020 9 034 10 028 12 050 10 063 14939 13209 5 028 8 034 10 023 15 042 10 062 13209 11669 7 038 9 034 12*025 16 036 10 053 11669 10298 9 041 11 035 11*030 15 033 10 037 10298 9075 9 038 12 034 9 027 14 029 10 021 9075 7982 8 036 11*035 8 022 12 025 8 012 7982 7007 8 036 9*037 6 012 9 017 6 004 7007 6142 7 036 7 040 5 005 6 000 5 348 6142 5374 7 038 5 041 3 347 4*329 4 327 5374 4682 7 039 3 044 2 320 4*292 5 310 4682 4068 7 037 1 052 2 283 5 268 5 307 4068 3553 8 041 0 088 2 258 6 253 6 311 3553 3157 9 045 1 195 3 245 6 248 6 321 3157 2884 10 050 2 207 3 240 6 245 5 336 2884 2718 9*049 2 205 3 237 6 244 5*347 2718 2623 6*047 2 209 3 236 5 241 4*356 2623 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography