DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 07/11 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 78.5 - - 82.0 - - 82.5 - - 77.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 116 - - 153 - - 51 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 78 - - 3065 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 770 - - 2426 - - 771 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top - - - 787 - - 3774 - - 787 - - 787 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 4068 - - 2269 - - 5614 - - 4733 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 88 - - 328 - - 68 - - 19 W* B/S - - - 5 - - 12 - - 5 - - 2 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 5 - - 3 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 314 - - 323 - - 353 - - 286 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1817 - - 289 - - -2896 - - -890 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2604 - - 3485 - - 3684 - - 1677 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1992 - - -600 - - -3550 - - -2072 ODpotential blCL - - - 2779 - - 4374 - - 4337 - - 2859 blCL maxRH - - - 91 - - 98 - - 82 - - 92 maxRH CAPE - - - 750 - - 1100 - - 1160 - - 2020 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 78.5 - - 82.0 - - 82.5 - - 77.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 69.4 - - 69.1 - - 68.7 - - 72.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 77.1 - - 80.6 - - 81.9 - - 78.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 68.5 - - 68.1 - - 67.8 - - 72.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 116 - - 153 - - 51 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 78 - - 3065 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 63 - - 91 - - 27 - - 66 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 16 - - 14 - - 15 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99307 43 094 37 092 34 075 37 078 99307 91790 31 086 29 083 31 070 31 070 91790 86020 24 075 23 084 26 069 28 070 86020 81246 21 068 21 087 20 082 19 066 81246 77127 18 070 16 083 15 089 11 090 77127 73476 16 076 15 076 10 087 11 075 73476 70171 9 069 12 036 14 076 9 068 70171 67140 7 050 7 069 9 059 9 055 67140 64345 6 023 7 065 4 078 9 006 64345 61657 2 304 6 026 4 169 8 281 61657 58858 16 298 17 299 14 305 7 257 58858 55954 25 280 32 275 27 288 22 300 55954 53204 29 274 38 271 42 287 39 285 53204 50753 46 277 47 270 55 268 50 273 50753 48562 54 266 48 255 51 257 59 274 48562 46576 52 263 46 257 55 270 68 265 46576 44760 57 272 57 275 65 271 70 263 44760 43077 65 279 66 275 68 268 70 263 43077 41500 66 280 69 272 63 261 66 259 41500 40015 64 280 65 272 60 257 61 256 40015 38612 64 279 59 271 58 256 56 256 38612 37252 57 274 57 264 57 252 57 253 37252 35865 50 275 55 258 54 254 58 250 35865 34420 43 271 51 253 51 257 53 251 34420 32920 41 267 48 254 50 260 52 256 32920 31350 41 267 43 261 50 262 52 263 31350 29698 44 269 43 281 49 264 51 268 29698 27963 44 269 36 268 41 263 43 271 27963 26148 39 267 34 266 40 271 31 270 26148 24262 34 272 31 267 37 274 24 260 24262 22306 28 275 26 267 31 275 14 264 22306 20273 25 273 23 272 25 277 11 287 20273 18159 23 277 24 273 20 285 13 300 18159 16006 23 282 21 281 17 292 12 310 16006 13932 22 291 15 290 14 300 10 315 13932 12050 19 298 16 315 11 293 11 318 12050 10382 16 306 15 323 11 307 10 320 10382 8901 14 310 12 333 10 325 8 332 8901 7583 13 307 10 329 8 333 8 345 7583 6413 12 298 9 321 8 333 10 349 6413 5377 9 297 8 316 8 334 10 345 5377 4463 6 308 8*316 8 336 9 341 4463 3653 6 313 6*318 7 340 8 338 3653 2928 5 315 6 321 5 345 7 333 2928 2286 5 315 5 322 5 350 6 327 2286 1751 5 315 5 325 4 352 6 321 1751 1339 5 316 4 326 4 353 5 312 1339 1057 4 316 4 327 3 354 4 304 1057 885 4*315 4 329 3 354 3*296 885 787 4*314 3 328 3*353 2*286 787 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography