DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 07/16 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 87.3 - - 93.9 - - 95.5 - - 88.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 162 - - 228 - - 101 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2765 - - 5634 - - 5800 - - 78 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2228 - - 4542 - - 4191 - - 771 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3474 - - 6343 - - 6509 - - 787 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1775 - - 2594 - - 2975 - - 6992 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 321 - - 456 - - 359 - - 25 W* B/S - - - 8 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 10 - - 12 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 312 - - 292 - - 282 - - 303 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -831 - - -44 - - -1240 - - -4073 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4305 - - 6387 - - 7750 - - 4860 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3978 - - -1271 - - -3603 - - -5634 ODpotential blCL - - - 7452 - - 7614 - - 10112 - - 6421 blCL maxRH - - - 73 - - 73 - - 62 - - 72 maxRH CAPE - - - 1950 - - 2060 - - 1130 - - 2330 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 87.3 - - 93.9 - - 95.5 - - 88.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 70.8 - - 68.4 - - 64.1 - - 70.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 85.9 - - 92.0 - - 94.4 - - 90.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 69.9 - - 67.3 - - 63.1 - - 69.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 162 - - 228 - - 101 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2765 - - 5634 - - 5800 - - 78 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 16 - - 14 - - 12 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99631 48 089 43 087 29 093 27 092 99631 92055 37 081 32 090 29 080 30 078 92055 86220 29 081 27 090 29 078 27 065 86220 81396 25 085 23 092 26 083 22 066 81396 77244 18 073 18 087 22 095 19 062 77244 73575 11 079 12 094 17 094 13 055 73575 70256 9 081 13 084 9 103 6 053 70256 67209 9 040 10 040 8 087 1 152 67209 64390 9 004 8 335 7 018 1 327 64390 61680 10 331 9 312 13 347 3 131 61680 58873 5 292 9 289 15 314 9 347 58873 55988 14 335 10 281 19 297 20 312 55988 53273 22 302 20 291 23 301 23 305 53273 50851 23 289 28 301 28 300 30 304 50851 48687 26 303 28 300 30 296 31 301 48687 46726 30 314 31 310 30 299 32 293 46726 44927 36 312 34 312 33 301 36 297 44927 43258 36 310 38 306 38 304 45 304 43258 41693 38 311 43 302 42 305 53 304 41693 40217 43 312 45 300 49 305 55 302 40217 38819 46 308 47 300 51 300 52 296 38819 37460 46 302 47 300 49 296 50 294 37460 36073 46 299 45 300 46 294 47 293 36073 34630 43 298 41 299 44 291 45 294 34630 33132 39 297 36 295 41 291 44 293 33132 31566 38 301 34 290 39 291 44 293 31566 29917 37 304 34 290 39 291 45 295 29917 28189 34 303 34 291 38 293 44 298 28189 26379 30 296 32 289 37 294 42 300 26379 24493 33 288 31 279 36 293 39 298 24493 22534 32 278 31 279 36 290 39 297 22534 20493 28 271 31 282 34 290 37 296 20493 18367 23 271 28 279 29 290 30 292 18367 16204 24 275 23 273 27 289 28 292 16204 14123 23 270 23 273 25 290 23 288 14123 12232 22 277 23 273 24 288 20 291 12232 10548 23 283 20 277 21 288 17 303 10548 9049 22 286 17 290 17 288 14 297 9049 7715 19 286 13 294 13 276 14 286 7715 6528 17 287 12*292 13*277 15 292 6528 5473 16 295 11*292 13*278 16 295 5473 4540 13 308 11 292 13 280 16 298 4540 3715 10*310 10 292 13 281 16 300 3715 2975 9*311 10 292 12 283 16 301 2975 2320 8 311 10 293 12 284 16 303 2320 1773 8 313 9 293 12 285 15 304 1773 1353 7 313 8 293 11 285 14 305 1353 1063 7 313 8 294 11 285 12 305 1063 888 6 313 8 293 10 286 9 304 888 787 5 314 6 293 8 286 5*303 787 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography