DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/15 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 58.3 - - 69.0 - - 67.6 - - 60.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 14 - - 50 - - -22 - - -45 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 77 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 786 - - 786 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 860 - - 6199 - - 5193 - - 188 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 45 - - 65 - - 18 - - 18 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 7 - - 5 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 204 - - 238 - - 220 - - 184 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - 0 - - -1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2455 - - -4415 - - -3959 - - -2238 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3240 - - 5201 - - 4745 - - 3023 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5652 - - -5044 - - -5429 - - -6627 ODpotential blCL - - - 6437 - - 5830 - - 6215 - - 7412 blCL maxRH - - - 88 - - 98 - - 95 - - 83 maxRH CAPE - - - 10 - - 10 - - 120 - - 40 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 58.3 - - 69.0 - - 67.6 - - 60.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 46.8 - - 48.7 - - 49.3 - - 49.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 57.8 - - 68.3 - - 68.5 - - 62.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 46.2 - - 48.2 - - 49.0 - - 49.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 14 - - 50 - - -22 - - -45 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 77 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 50 - - 92 - - 80 - - 32 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95918 88 251 86 248 98 249 91 253 95918 88893 59 259 60 253 62 248 58 250 88893 83423 46 263 46 263 43 258 38 257 83423 78864 32 262 39 267 40 273 39 274 78864 74956 24 258 24 246 34 260 41 272 74956 71490 22 309 8 268 18 230 31 251 71490 68308 34 308 27 310 23 304 27 295 68308 65358 36 292 38 297 41 306 41 297 65358 62640 29 286 34 288 43 298 40 301 62640 60023 25 291 33 289 43 294 42 304 60023 57278 31 304 39 294 45 294 44 298 57278 54401 48 304 48 297 46 295 49 298 54401 51649 56 306 53 302 55 302 57 298 51649 49178 56 314 64 306 64 305 63 297 49178 46970 71 310 70 304 73 299 69 292 46970 44969 75 301 73 302 72 293 69 289 44969 43135 73 305 74 303 71 298 74 291 43135 41447 96 311 82 300 84 300 80 295 41447 39891 106 305 93 294 88 293 87 303 39891 38440 87 304 98 294 83 288 102 306 38440 37073 75 299 92 294 78 288 110 302 37073 35753 73 288 83 291 76 288 107 298 35753 34412 72 287 80 290 73 288 103 298 34412 33018 72 291 76 292 72 286 103 300 33018 31573 67 293 71 292 76 282 104 303 31573 30063 58 291 72 290 73 280 93 303 30063 28481 49 288 69 289 68 282 77 294 28481 26830 47 289 59 290 66 287 75 285 26830 25108 50 290 51 287 65 284 75 283 25108 23319 49 287 49 285 62 275 71 284 23319 21460 44 285 47 284 54 268 67 290 21460 19522 43 288 43 276 47 268 62 293 19522 17502 44 294 40 267 44 266 55 283 17502 15447 40 297 38 265 39 261 44 272 15447 13470 35 297 36 266 35 260 37 278 13470 11668 32 296 34 268 34 264 35 281 11668 10060 30 292 33 270 37 267 33 281 10060 8627 29 285 36 269 41 266 36 281 8627 7354 31 277 36 265 41 262 40 273 7354 6224 29 277 34 263 37 256 44 263 6224 5223 28 278 29 259 33 248 44 257 5223 4340 28 280 23 254 29 241 41 252 4340 3558 28 277 20 251 26 237 36 246 3558 2857 25 271 17 247 23 235 33 240 2857 2236 19 263 15 243 21 233 30 235 2236 1717 13 250 13 241 18 230 27 227 1717 1319 9 230 12 240 15 228 23 218 1319 1045 7 218 11 239 12 225 16 204 1045 880 5*206 9*239 9*224 12 195 880 785 4*204 7*238 5*220 6*184 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography