DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0952z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 64.2 - - 73.8 - - 74.2 - - 63.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 117 - - 212 - - 20 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 739 - - 2285 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 769 - - 1961 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1448 - - 2994 - - 786 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 838 - - 1174 - - 3433 - - 157 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 180 - - 320 - - 49 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 6 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 10 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 179 - - 178 - - 154 - - 134 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -3 - - -3 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4904 - - -5941 - - -7966 - - -4924 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6352 - - 8936 - - 8753 - - 5709 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -13426 - - -12349 - - -13789 - - -13225 ODpotential blCL - - - 14874 - - 15343 - - 14575 - - 14010 blCL maxRH - - - 75 - - 86 - - 34 - - 49 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 64.2 - - 73.8 - - 74.2 - - 63.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 39.6 - - 37.6 - - 38.8 - - 41.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 63.0 - - 72.0 - - 73.6 - - 66.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 39.0 - - 36.9 - - 38.4 - - 41.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 117 - - 212 - - 20 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 739 - - 2285 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 43 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97746 26 233 29 251 25 245 18 244 97746 90418 24 225 25 227 26 243 20 251 90418 84741 17 222 23 228 26 243 23 248 84741 79994 12 226 17 237 20 249 19 238 79994 75902 11 240 14 253 12 241 11 254 75902 72319 9 242 10 269 6 268 10 295 72319 69093 3 230 8 255 7 274 8 312 69093 66130 4 185 8 245 12 284 16 301 66130 63394 3 251 10 260 17 273 21 283 63394 60760 9 263 8 270 17 270 19 273 60760 58028 17 281 17 292 19 271 24 278 58028 55220 26 290 23 277 24 267 28 271 55220 52551 33 289 30 274 32 268 30 272 52551 50140 36 283 34 276 36 270 40 271 50140 47969 31 277 39 277 45 268 54 267 47969 45986 31 280 42 277 46 271 62 267 45986 44154 33 284 47 278 61 280 64 271 44154 42456 35 289 49 283 66 280 63 276 42456 40877 35 288 50 283 61 280 58 281 40877 39404 33 290 48 285 56 284 57 288 39404 38024 28 254 46 288 51 290 57 289 38024 36696 23 229 40 293 46 290 58 288 36696 35343 19 230 33 288 44 288 54 291 35343 33933 17 245 28 273 40 282 45 298 33933 32470 17 260 26 279 38 283 36 298 32470 30937 13 264 27 287 32 287 31 287 30937 29322 13 274 26 285 27 287 30 284 29322 27626 19 290 22 283 25 289 25 284 27626 25848 24 283 21 281 27 290 21 282 25848 23995 27 277 21 272 25 283 19 279 23995 22070 28 271 25 269 24 276 20 278 22070 20070 26 263 27 269 22 276 20 279 20070 17987 22 263 26 265 21 274 18 283 17987 15862 19 263 22 258 21 270 16 290 15862 13808 22 262 19 255 17 264 18 282 13808 11937 21 262 18 244 16 261 19 270 11937 10272 15 260 18 237 19 262 17 264 10272 8791 11 250 17 239 21 266 17 267 8791 7477 10 241 15 243 20 267 18 269 7477 6313 11 236 13 246 16 262 17 260 6313 5287 12 232 12 244 11 248 15 244 5287 4383 13 223 12 229 10 231 13 231 4383 3586 15 212 10*208 9 214 14 220 3586 2874 17 204 10*189 11 178 16 194 2874 2246 16 197 10 181 11 168 20 174 2246 1723 13*191 10 177 11 163 22 164 1723 1322 9*180 10 174 11 160 20 157 1322 1047 9 179 9 172 10 158 16 151 1047 880 7 178 9 171 9*156 10 145 880 785 6 178 7 170 7*154 5*134 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography