DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/15 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1000z - - 1332z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 74.8 - - 80.0 - - 79.3 - - 71.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 217 - - 247 - - 75 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1985 - - 6205 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1753 - - 4977 - - 770 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2694 - - 6914 - - 786 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2875 - - 2534 - - 8486 - - 5029 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 307 - - 469 - - 74 - - 11 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 11 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 8 - - 7 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 041 - - 071 - - 090 - - 094 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - -2 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2490 - - -947 - - -6792 - - -4454 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5184 - - 7862 - - 7579 - - 5240 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3818 - - -1248 - - -6936 - - -6172 ODpotential blCL - - - 6512 - - 8162 - - 7722 - - 6958 blCL maxRH - - - 63 - - 97 - - 90 - - 83 maxRH CAPE - - - 40 - - 20 - - 20 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 74.8 - - 80.0 - - 79.3 - - 71.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 55.0 - - 48.4 - - 49.0 - - 52.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 72.9 - - 78.1 - - 78.3 - - 73.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 54.7 - - 47.8 - - 48.6 - - 51.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 217 - - 247 - - 75 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1985 - - 6205 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 90 - - 60 - - 33 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98304 10 079 20 095 21 129 8 170 98304 90933 7 088 10 093 15 115 7 107 90933 85260 11 107 8 116 8 073 9 079 85260 80559 16 105 11 121 7 066 7 051 80559 76503 13 087 11 121 5 076 5 060 76503 72923 8 086 12 113 4 118 6 064 72923 69684 7 124 8 109 2 159 7 040 69684 66700 6 128 6 101 5 170 2 085 66700 63942 4 113 7 116 6 164 3 189 63942 61279 3 115 7 130 6 162 4 199 61279 58506 1 048 5 129 6 147 3 189 58506 55630 6 182 8 163 8 168 8 192 55630 52887 7 171 12 179 10 177 11 178 52887 50420 15 180 16 182 12 184 14 180 50420 48205 19 168 19 170 14 181 16 166 48205 46194 19 167 20 154 17 162 15 151 46194 44354 17 158 19 143 19 154 16 155 44354 42660 17 142 19 154 19 156 16 162 42660 41088 16 110 18 152 18 148 17 156 41088 39623 16 091 15 122 17 121 21 142 39623 38247 18 098 18 101 18 097 25 136 38247 36916 18 098 24 115 21 104 26 134 36916 35558 18 107 32 119 24 109 26 132 35558 34140 20 116 30 124 20 109 26 133 34140 32665 19 117 26 126 17 104 22 135 32665 31120 16 111 20 113 15 100 17 121 31120 29490 12 090 18 102 15 093 18 096 29490 27778 25 066 16 095 12 084 18 092 27778 25982 37 062 19 077 15 080 19 088 25982 24109 36 057 31 068 19 084 21 068 24109 22166 29 060 33 063 20 078 22 054 22166 20146 22 068 25 066 22 059 20 060 20146 18037 16 069 22 060 22 060 19 068 18037 15883 16 056 22 059 21 069 20 065 15883 13804 22 056 21 067 15 082 15 071 13804 11917 23 063 20 068 14 077 10 085 11917 10254 22 062 17 060 14 044 14 046 10254 8790 12 047 12 042 11 039 15 030 8790 7492 9 051 10*051 10 045 13 033 7492 6338 9 060 9*057 10 055 10 050 6338 5313 10 076 8 068 10 071 10 068 5313 4409 12 086 8 070 10 079 11 079 4409 3610 9 081 8 073 10 083 13 086 3610 2895 6*053 8 074 10 085 14 091 2895 2263 5*047 8 076 10 087 16 094 2263 1735 4 043 7 077 10 088 16 096 1735 1330 4 040 7 078 10 089 14 097 1330 1052 4 036 7 078 9 089 12 097 1052 883 3 036 6 078 8 090 9 096 883 786 3 035 5 078 7*090 4*094 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography