DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/04 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 33.0 - - 38.2 - - 34.8 - - 30.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 12 - - 108 - - -8 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 2136 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 1530 - - 766 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 2845 - - 783 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1949 - - 1185 - - 3164 - - 2836 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 42 - - 254 - - 26 - - 22 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 19 - - 9 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 302 - - 302 - - 309 - - 333 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - 6 - - 2 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1487 - - 86 - - -1882 - - -1632 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2270 - - 2759 - - 2665 - - 2415 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8531 - - -6730 - - -2201 - - -1891 ODpotential blCL - - - 9314 - - 9575 - - 2984 - - 2674 blCL maxRH - - - 79 - - 88 - - 84 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 33.0 - - 38.2 - - 34.8 - - 30.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 26.2 - - 29.1 - - 26.3 - - 22.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 32.7 - - 37.2 - - 34.8 - - 30.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 25.4 - - 28.0 - - 25.5 - - 21.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 12 - - 108 - - -8 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 2136 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 16 - - 51 - - 35 - - 35 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96393 13 288 12 287 8 276 16 262 96393 89194 11 315 8 279 9 305 12 332 89194 83607 11 268 14 259 14 305 12 309 83607 78976 17 274 19 245 21 276 24 284 78976 75009 12 272 19 232 19 235 19 280 75009 71469 34 272 25 271 19 261 21 273 71469 68238 36 253 36 264 34 272 37 275 68238 65271 32 266 40 257 42 266 45 268 65271 62524 40 269 41 256 42 261 46 265 62524 59852 46 263 46 256 48 264 51 268 59852 57050 61 263 64 252 64 261 66 258 57050 54135 81 256 76 251 75 249 72 253 54135 51349 93 251 84 254 75 250 79 258 51349 48843 101 251 91 255 89 261 91 262 48843 46609 105 253 102 254 105 260 106 261 46609 44606 113 257 111 254 116 259 121 256 44606 42799 122 258 122 257 133 257 133 254 42799 41144 132 259 138 258 144 257 140 255 41144 39604 150 261 152 258 154 258 150 257 39604 38159 170 261 159 258 163 259 158 259 38159 36795 174 260 163 259 166 260 163 259 36795 35473 167 259 165 257 163 260 161 258 35473 34127 158 258 171 255 161 257 155 257 34127 32728 153 257 169 256 163 254 151 255 32728 31276 152 256 157 256 162 255 151 253 31276 29757 149 256 151 257 155 257 154 254 29757 28160 141 256 148 258 147 259 154 257 28160 26488 132 255 143 257 140 260 142 259 26488 24744 125 256 138 257 134 260 131 260 24744 22926 115 255 131 261 129 262 121 257 22926 21038 102 252 114 261 122 263 114 260 21038 19082 89 252 97 259 106 265 90 265 19082 17055 78 253 83 257 81 264 72 261 17055 14993 68 254 67 257 63 262 60 257 14993 13013 60 254 54 261 49 266 46 257 13013 11219 54 254 47 264 41 270 37 260 11219 9628 50 257 43 265 35 273 29 264 9628 8221 46 261 40 268 32 277 24 272 8221 6976 44 266 37 273 29 281 22 283 6976 5880 41 272 33 278 26 283 19 295 5880 4918 37 279 30 284 23 285 17 306 4918 4081 33 286 27 291 22 291 17 316 4081 3349 31 292 22*297 21 298 19 324 3349 2698 29 295 21*300 21 302 19 328 2698 2124 25 297 20 302 20 304 19 329 2124 1645 20 299 20 302 19 305 18 331 1645 1277 17 301 19 303 18 307 16 332 1277 1024 14 302 18 303 16 308 13 333 1024 871 11 302 15 304 13*308 11*333 871 783 8*302 11 303 9*309 7*333 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography