DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/14 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - - - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - - - - 22.0 - - 18.3 - - 14.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 140 - - 87 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 73 - - 73 - - 73 BL Depth Hcrit - - - - - - 766 - - 765 - - 765 Hcrit BL Top - - - - - - 782 - - 782 - - 782 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - - - - 5912 - - 6742 - - 3064 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - - - - 88 - - 75 - - 15 W* B/S - - - - - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - - - - 14 - - 16 - - 13 BL Wind Direction - - - - - - 301 - - 306 - - 292 Direction Wind Shear - - - - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - - - - 4 - - 5 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - - - - -3038 - - -3787 - - -3047 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - - - - 3821 - - 4569 - - 3829 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - - - - -2893 - - -3751 - - -4960 ODpotential blCL - - - - - - 3675 - - 4533 - - 5742 blCL maxRH - - - - - - 100 - - 99 - - 72 maxRH CAPE - - - - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - - - - 22.0 - - 18.3 - - 14.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - - - - 8.1 - - 1.2 - - 0.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - - - - 21.0 - - 17.6 - - 14.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - - - - 7.5 - - 0.8 - - 0.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 140 - - 87 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 73 - - 73 - - 73 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - - - - 100 - - 98 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95139 114 239 127 240 120 245 95139 88204 85 236 93 244 90 253 88204 82913 77 252 74 254 66 252 82913 78496 62 260 55 256 48 259 78496 74643 43 254 40 259 45 266 74643 71203 34 245 31 252 42 271 71203 68050 35 251 31 256 34 275 68050 65098 41 263 40 269 37 285 65098 62325 52 271 52 273 49 281 62325 59633 61 268 57 260 53 273 59633 56816 56 254 52 243 50 272 56816 53879 47 230 43 254 54 276 53879 51077 37 224 55 273 53 271 51077 48551 48 270 61 270 48 269 48551 46270 70 266 61 264 46 271 46270 44184 78 258 60 262 51 274 44184 42268 78 253 56 262 59 276 42268 40507 77 252 56 265 64 275 40507 38876 79 252 58 266 61 272 38876 37352 83 252 63 266 54 272 37352 35914 88 249 66 264 51 280 35914 34525 93 246 67 262 56 284 34525 33118 96 243 66 259 58 282 33118 31667 99 239 65 257 59 283 31667 30178 101 236 66 257 61 285 30178 28641 102 233 69 257 61 284 28641 27043 100 231 71 255 60 286 27043 25386 94 229 69 254 59 286 25386 23669 86 230 64 255 54 287 23669 21889 79 232 62 257 51 300 21889 20051 74 234 60 259 55 308 20051 18153 68 237 56 260 57 312 18153 16195 60 241 52 265 57 314 16195 14218 52 247 49 273 55 317 14218 12338 45 258 47 283 51 320 12338 10656 42 269 46 295 43 329 10656 9181 40 278 42 304 44 342 9181 7876 37 287 37 308 45 345 7876 6715 30 295 37 309 44 342 6715 5684 29 299 37 309 43 336 5684 4771 29 300 37 308 46 324 4771 3970 29 301 36 308 49 312 3970 3264 29 301 36 308 47 305 3264 2634 29 301 35 307 43 301 2634 2078 28 301 34 307 37 297 2078 1615 27 301 32 307 33 296 1615 1260 26 301 30 307 29 294 1260 1015 24 301 27 306 24 293 1015 867 20 301 23*306 20*292 867 782 14*301 16*306 13*292 782 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography