DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 02/07 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 9.5 - - 11.4 - - 12.8 - - 9.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 72 - - 128 - - 38 - - -59 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 72 - - 72 - - 73 - - 73 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 765 - - 765 - - 765 - - 765 Hcrit BL Top - - - 781 - - 781 - - 782 - - 782 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3612 - - 4173 - - 4240 - - 3505 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 71 - - 86 - - 58 - - 15 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 17 - - 18 - - 16 - - 11 BL Wind Direction - - - 314 - - 310 - - 309 - - 305 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2561 - - -2125 - - -2148 - - -1745 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3342 - - 2906 - - 2930 - - 2527 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2737 - - -2092 - - -2269 - - -2848 ODpotential blCL - - - 3518 - - 2873 - - 3051 - - 3630 blCL maxRH - - - 77 - - 87 - - 91 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 9.5 - - 11.4 - - 12.8 - - 9.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - -2.3 - - 1.6 - - 3.0 - - 1.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 8.9 - - 10.6 - - 12.3 - - 11.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - -3.3 - - 0.5 - - 2.0 - - 1.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 72 - - 128 - - 38 - - -59 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 72 - - 72 - - 73 - - 73 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 8 - - 46 - - 64 - - 34 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96473 27 217 27 244 25 254 21 244 96473 89250 14 237 19 241 14 258 23 248 89250 83688 6 249 13 224 13 266 10 253 83688 79037 2 349 5 306 13 247 9 293 79037 75007 15 300 9 294 14 224 17 254 75007 71437 8 262 13 177 6 256 8 243 71437 68194 22 335 10 210 27 303 19 291 68194 65225 27 280 25 267 26 279 31 289 65225 62472 40 269 38 282 26 275 25 277 62472 59761 49 283 55 291 38 287 23 266 59761 56883 57 290 64 290 59 291 51 293 56883 53885 64 290 64 291 65 294 68 298 53885 51039 69 289 66 290 70 296 79 299 51039 48493 74 290 70 291 80 294 89 297 48493 46216 80 291 77 291 88 292 95 295 46216 44147 83 290 84 292 94 292 98 295 44147 42248 84 291 90 292 97 294 100 296 42248 40496 85 295 93 293 99 296 101 297 40496 38870 89 299 95 295 101 298 103 299 38870 37356 94 302 96 299 104 300 107 300 37356 35940 100 303 100 303 109 301 111 301 35940 34583 104 304 110 307 118 304 118 302 34583 33218 105 305 126 308 132 306 131 304 33218 31818 106 308 138 306 144 306 143 304 31818 30378 111 312 143 306 148 305 148 304 30378 28876 119 315 145 307 146 307 149 305 28876 27301 122 315 144 308 146 310 146 308 27301 25656 117 314 141 310 141 310 139 310 25656 23944 110 314 140 313 130 310 132 311 23944 22167 107 314 141 315 126 313 124 311 22167 20324 108 315 130 316 125 316 120 314 20324 18402 107 315 118 318 117 317 115 317 18402 16402 97 316 109 320 109 318 106 319 16402 14377 83 316 95 321 99 319 94 320 14377 12446 73 318 80 321 87 321 82 322 12446 10712 66 319 70 321 76 323 71 323 10712 9193 62 320 65 321 68 325 63 325 9193 7860 60 322 62 322 63 326 57 329 7860 6685 58 325 60 324 59 326 54 331 6685 5652 58 325 56 321 54 320 53 325 5652 4745 56 321 45 310 46 309 52 315 4745 3951 50 316 44 309 45 308 50 309 3951 3252 46 314 43 309 43 308 48 309 3252 2626 45 314 42 309 42 309 45 308 2626 2073 42 314 41 309 39 309 41 308 2073 1611 39 314 38 309 36 309 35 307 1611 1257 35 314 36 310 32 309 29 307 1257 1014 30 314 31 310 27 309 22 306 1014 866 25 314 27 310 23*309 18*306 866 782 17*314 18*310 16*309 11*305 782 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography