DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/15 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 18.4 - - 29.3 - - 32.9 - - 24.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 109 - - 216 - - 10 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 965 - - 2074 - - 74 - - 73 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 765 - - 1807 - - 767 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1674 - - 2783 - - 783 - - 782 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 605 - - 901 - - 4074 - - 439 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 190 - - 309 - - 37 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 10 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 13 - - 6 - - 3 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 304 - - 272 - - 211 - - 140 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2515 - - -3409 - - -6506 - - -4259 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4189 - - 6192 - - 7289 - - 5041 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -18523 - - -16431 - - -17626 - - -19282 ODpotential blCL - - - 20197 - - 19214 - - 18409 - - 20064 blCL maxRH - - - 83 - - 78 - - 77 - - 55 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 18.4 - - 29.3 - - 32.9 - - 24.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 3.3 - - 5.1 - - 3.8 - - 5.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 17.4 - - 27.6 - - 32.3 - - 25.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 3.0 - - 4.9 - - 3.4 - - 5.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 109 - - 216 - - 10 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 965 - - 2074 - - 74 - - 73 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 34 - - 12 - - 9 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95067 76 243 94 252 76 264 67 276 95067 88365 66 275 65 279 60 271 57 272 88365 83107 48 292 47 288 45 278 54 284 83107 78688 26 308 30 289 46 278 54 281 78688 74856 19 316 27 296 44 280 50 275 74856 71441 21 323 37 300 37 294 43 270 71441 68291 29 318 36 298 33 299 39 270 68291 65341 35 311 32 292 37 295 39 276 65341 62579 42 303 39 288 45 292 47 283 62579 59901 45 297 45 282 50 284 53 283 59901 57108 43 293 45 279 52 279 56 276 57108 54196 42 294 46 280 54 280 58 281 54196 51402 48 294 54 281 62 278 67 281 51402 48876 52 286 60 277 67 274 64 279 48876 46603 52 282 58 279 61 275 59 287 46603 44545 52 285 61 286 55 285 67 290 44545 42677 62 291 67 288 61 296 71 287 42677 40970 67 287 70 287 76 294 73 288 40970 39390 64 284 73 285 82 287 77 288 39390 37918 61 290 75 282 78 286 79 288 37918 36542 71 298 75 283 78 290 79 294 36542 35225 86 301 78 287 80 296 90 302 35225 33900 92 298 83 289 88 301 104 303 33900 32530 89 295 87 289 95 303 110 302 32530 31111 86 293 88 287 101 304 107 300 31111 29624 85 291 88 285 106 304 101 299 29624 28060 83 289 88 285 107 302 96 298 28060 26418 79 287 88 286 106 297 94 296 26418 24693 68 282 88 288 104 294 93 295 24693 22888 68 282 85 292 93 292 90 295 22888 21005 71 284 72 292 71 288 84 296 21005 19047 71 284 66 288 63 288 77 295 19047 17017 63 281 62 290 60 290 71 293 17017 14958 52 280 55 295 59 290 64 294 14958 12971 43 285 53 288 60 289 54 295 12971 11163 39 288 44 281 57 284 52 289 11163 9568 33 287 36 281 49 276 51 280 9568 8169 26 287 31 275 42 273 48 273 8169 6942 21 291 25 263 36 272 41 270 6942 5863 18 295 20 252 28 262 32 262 5863 4916 15 301 16 254 19 239 22 242 4916 4084 15 317 12 262 16 229 20 228 4084 3352 17 321 9*262 11 221 17 220 3352 2697 21 309 7*266 9 219 15 202 2697 2121 20*306 6 270 7 216 17 183 2121 1641 15*304 6 272 6 214 20 171 1641 1274 14 303 6 275 5 214 19 162 1274 1022 13 304 5 277 4 213 15 152 1022 869 11 304 5 279 4 212 10 147 869 782 8 303 4 279 3*211 5*140 782 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography