DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/12 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0949z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 53.2 - - 57.3 - - 53.7 - - 46.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 33 - - 16 - - -11 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 76 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 785 - - 785 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1240 - - 4681 - - 4178 - - 2308 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 56 - - 45 - - 30 - - 16 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 6 - - 10 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 260 - - 261 - - 294 - - 288 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - 0 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3094 - - -2208 - - -1936 - - -644 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3879 - - 2993 - - 2721 - - 1429 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -6320 - - -2636 - - -2649 - - -1940 ODpotential blCL - - - 7104 - - 3421 - - 3434 - - 2724 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 101 - - 84 - - 94 maxRH CAPE - - - 110 - - 70 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 53.2 - - 57.3 - - 53.7 - - 46.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 38.7 - - 46.4 - - 44.2 - - 43.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 52.4 - - 57.1 - - 53.8 - - 47.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 38.2 - - 46.0 - - 43.5 - - 42.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 33 - - 16 - - -11 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 76 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 102 - - 37 - - 75 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96235 64 244 72 241 81 248 71 253 96235 88970 44 254 44 252 48 255 51 255 88970 83424 29 260 26 245 26 251 34 236 83424 78835 25 260 23 254 22 267 23 249 78835 74868 21 260 20 248 20 257 18 266 74868 71348 17 268 16 257 16 248 13 253 71348 68139 24 283 18 272 18 259 17 259 68139 65165 25 273 21 271 23 263 27 254 65165 62397 27 271 26 260 25 254 26 257 62397 59702 28 260 23 246 20 244 22 268 59702 56864 30 252 25 256 22 261 31 260 56864 53895 41 255 47 258 43 258 44 244 53895 51056 55 248 59 246 56 244 49 238 51056 48505 60 240 60 239 57 241 51 240 48505 46223 57 237 60 240 58 242 57 244 46223 44157 59 237 64 238 57 240 63 242 44157 42273 61 238 65 231 54 238 66 238 42273 40540 62 239 59 230 54 237 64 234 40540 38935 61 239 57 235 54 238 57 232 38935 37439 60 238 58 237 54 237 51 232 37439 36040 57 237 57 237 50 238 49 231 36040 34699 55 235 54 236 49 245 47 229 34699 33353 53 236 45 234 51 244 44 229 33353 31979 52 239 38 241 41 243 40 232 31979 30580 55 241 40 249 34 249 36 234 30580 29137 59 239 43 250 34 258 31 234 29137 27631 56 236 42 249 35 261 29 233 27631 26055 51 236 41 247 38 259 27 230 26055 24403 48 238 39 246 39 257 26 231 24403 22677 42 240 35 248 36 264 24 242 22677 20880 37 240 32 247 31 274 21 252 20880 19004 37 236 31 241 27 273 21 263 19004 17042 38 234 33 239 24 262 23 276 17042 15034 35 237 33 241 23 257 24 283 15034 13092 31 237 30 250 23 258 22 280 13092 11324 31 238 29 252 25 265 20 281 11324 9756 29 240 27 246 27 272 17 297 9756 8365 26 232 26 244 26 279 21 312 8365 7128 23 219 24 249 24 286 24 312 7128 6030 18 212 24 255 24 287 28 308 6030 5059 13 217 22 259 24 287 32 306 5059 4205 12 239 20 259 24 289 33 306 4205 3452 12 260 17 259 24 290 33 307 3452 2777 13 270 15 259 23 291 32 306 2777 2181 12 275 13 260 22 292 29 304 2181 1682 10 279 13 260 21 293 24 302 1682 1299 8 273 11 261 20 294 20 300 1299 1036 5 265 10 262 17 294 15 296 1036 876 4 261 9*262 14*294 11 293 876 784 3*260 6*261 10*294 5*288 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography