DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 07/10 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 90.2 - - 98.9 - - 104.6 - - 105.5 - - 98.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 140 - - 434 - - 482 - - 224 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2417 - - 6540 - - 9466 - - 11186 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 3260 - - 6913 - - 9334 - - 10241 - - 2130 Hcrit BL Top 4517 - - 8640 - - 11566 - - 13286 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1418 - - 1470 - - 2292 - - 2192 - - 10141 Hgt.Variab. W* 285 - - 579 - - 678 - - 556 - - 4 W* B/S 5 - - 27 - - 21 - - 12 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 9 - - 4 - - 6 - - 9 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 208 - - 283 - - 265 - - 287 - - 277 Direction Wind Shear 5 - - 1 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 7 - - 4 - - 2 - - 7 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4259 - - -2617 - - -1015 - - 16 - - -9908 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8777 - - 11257 - - 12581 - - 13271 - - 12055 sfcLCL ODpotential -8248 - - -5092 - - -1959 - - -695 - - -12575 ODpotential blCL 12765 - - 13732 - - 13525 - - 13981 - - 14721 blCL maxRH 74 - - 79 - - 83 - - 83 - - 67 maxRH CAPE 460 - - 670 - - 1040 - - 850 - - 460 CAPE Temp@2m 90.2 - - 98.9 - - 104.6 - - 105.5 - - 98.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 59.1 - - 56.6 - - 56.3 - - 54.2 - - 52.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 88.9 - - 96.0 - - 101.4 - - 103.6 - - 99.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 59.1 - - 56.6 - - 56.3 - - 54.2 - - 52.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 140 - - 434 - - 482 - - 224 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2417 - - 6540 - - 9466 - - 11186 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 16 - - 33 - - 31 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 10 - - 10 - - 9 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99097 46 098 39 099 36 116 32 119 27 099 99097 91541 33 101 36 102 35 110 34 109 35 095 91541 85759 30 102 25 104 31 103 32 103 34 094 85759 80990 28 097 20 110 26 099 29 097 31 100 80990 76889 25 104 21 116 19 107 25 101 24 098 76889 73281 25 107 25 124 16 124 17 096 21 094 73281 70029 25 103 28 119 24 130 15 098 21 099 70029 67045 20 088 26 117 24 126 15 120 18 108 67045 64286 16 090 20 101 18 123 15 121 15 113 64286 61649 9 096 16 099 16 110 12 125 12 126 61649 58950 9 118 15 116 14 114 13 132 12 140 58950 56189 9 105 13 115 15 134 11 142 11 146 56189 53569 5 122 6 090 11 123 8 145 8 124 53569 51202 2 171 4 127 4 060 6 086 9 070 51202 49056 2 138 3 125 5 037 9 069 12 066 49056 47085 6 091 6 115 5 079 13 091 13 095 47085 45255 9 077 9 111 8 116 14 110 14 113 45255 43546 9 076 10 102 9 110 13 124 11 128 43546 41941 6 114 10 126 5 120 11 139 9 154 41941 40428 10 134 13 145 8 170 9 150 9 155 40428 39000 7 093 12 123 13 143 10 174 6 158 39000 37628 12 338 10 037 6 093 12 163 9 155 37628 36239 15 299 13 328 10 313 5 105 4 069 36239 34804 17 272 15 298 14 298 9 350 10 352 34804 33322 20 265 11 311 6 299 10 336 7 016 33322 31779 12 278 9 213 6 234 4 238 3 190 31779 30170 4 239 13 193 8 203 7 233 7 225 30170 28495 7 104 6 201 4 244 6 229 7 229 28495 26753 12 049 12 064 10 078 7 090 5 173 26753 24946 14 045 14 036 16 052 23 061 15 091 24946 23083 11 043 15 039 19 046 29 055 31 069 23083 21152 14 035 15 061 18 063 24 062 30 070 21152 19144 12 044 13 078 14 083 18 084 24 082 19144 17097 10 088 14 117 12 129 15 107 18 092 17097 15118 10 106 15 131 12 137 9 128 12 090 15118 13312 7 086 10 129 8 140 3*257 8 016 13312 11700 7 014 4 135 4*241 6*280 13 347 11700 10260 7 346 2 128 5*253 7 282 12 340 10260 8970 6 004 2*265 5 256 7 284 10 331 8970 7815 8 326 3*273 6 260 8 287 10 318 7815 6786 11 272 4 274 6 263 9 288 11 305 6786 5872 14 243 4 277 6 266 10 289 12 294 5872 5060 14*227 4 281 6 268 10 289 15 286 5060 4328 11*215 4 284 6 269 10 290 16 282 4328 3678 10 209 4 287 6 270 10 290 18 279 3678 3133 9 207 4 291 6 272 10 291 18 278 3133 2713 9 206 4 292 6 272 10 291 17 277 2713 2423 8 206 4 293 6 272 10 291 15 277 2423 2247 8 205 4 294 6 273 9 291 12 278 2247 2146 7 204 4 295 5 274 9 292 7*277 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography