DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/02 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 80.9 - - 87.1 - - - - - 77.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 173 - - 276 - - - - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2923 - - 5559 - - - - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3763 - - 5945 - - - - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5023 - - 7659 - - - - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1649 - - 1985 - - - - - 2789 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 334 - - 476 - - - - - 12 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 4 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 17 - - 19 - - - - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 120 - - 109 - - - - - 117 Direction Wind Shear - - - 9 - - 6 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 5 - - 10 - - - - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3086 - - -2369 - - - - - -5935 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 8110 - - 10028 - - - - - 8080 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8424 - - -6219 - - - - - -12159 ODpotential blCL - - - 13447 - - 13878 - - - - - 14304 blCL maxRH - - - 50 - - 54 - - - - - 50 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 80.9 - - 87.1 - - - - - 77.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 52.7 - - 50.3 - - - - - 50.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 79.5 - - 85.1 - - - - - 79.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 51.9 - - 49.8 - - - - - 49.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 173 - - 276 - - - - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2923 - - 5559 - - - - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 8 - - - - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97963 14 293 4 196 7 282 97963 90629 9 169 5 208 4 301 90629 85011 7 111 3 160 7 356 85011 80349 11 360 5 112 10 341 80349 76343 8 349 8 021 7 350 76343 72820 4 138 11 005 7 041 72820 69636 8 133 6 360 14 028 69636 66722 9 142 3 168 11 002 66722 64046 7 127 7 160 5 322 64046 61480 5 076 6 177 5 274 61480 58818 7 015 2 013 7 280 58818 56069 12 328 9 330 11 286 56069 53447 20 313 15 311 12 258 53447 51062 27 312 21 301 20 272 51062 48904 35 315 31 311 29 282 48904 46934 45 321 46 310 41 284 46934 45110 54 321 56 311 46 284 45110 43406 56 317 57 310 52 285 43406 41801 52 315 51 310 50 287 41801 40288 45 318 47 313 48 289 40288 38857 43 325 45 319 47 289 38857 37474 44 336 45 323 45 294 37474 36075 43 343 40 338 37 308 36075 34629 32 344 33 342 23 322 34629 33137 19 352 22 332 16 320 33137 31583 16 011 16 351 17 319 31583 29965 15 013 17 002 13 343 29965 28286 13 033 13 014 14 013 28286 26542 20 063 17 056 13 025 26542 24732 26 066 22 064 16 058 24732 22857 27 067 25 068 20 064 22857 20911 29 073 29 079 18 065 20911 18887 30 077 27 087 16 071 18887 16827 28 077 23 088 19 073 16827 14846 26 076 21 083 23 075 14846 13049 24 073 21 080 23 075 13049 11455 21 067 22 084 22 079 11455 10037 19 070 23 092 21 088 10037 8773 17 082 22*102 22 101 8773 7644 18 093 20*107 25 113 7644 6641 21 103 20 108 28 120 6641 5753 23*111 20 108 31 122 5753 4965 20*116 20 109 33 122 4965 4256 19 118 19 109 32 120 4256 3626 17 120 19 110 30 120 3626 3099 17 121 19 110 26 120 3099 2693 16 122 18 110 21 120 2693 2413 14 122 17 110 15 120 2413 2242 13 122 16 110 11*118 2242 2145 11 122 14 109 5*117 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography