DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 75.3 - - 80.3 - - - - - 70.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 293 - - 265 - - - - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2696 - - 3845 - - - - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3778 - - 4606 - - - - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4796 - - 5945 - - - - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 916 - - 1219 - - - - - 2434 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 380 - - 414 - - - - - 14 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 43 - - 39 - - - - - 13 BL Wind Direction - - - 125 - - 123 - - - - - 130 Direction Wind Shear - - - 22 - - 17 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 6 - - 15 - - - - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -5862 - - -6045 - - - - - -8367 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10659 - - 11990 - - - - - 10511 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -12523 - - -11575 - - - - - -16549 ODpotential blCL - - - 17319 - - 17520 - - - - - 18693 blCL maxRH - - - 41 - - 45 - - - - - 38 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 75.3 - - 80.3 - - - - - 70.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 36.5 - - 35.4 - - - - - 32.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 74.0 - - 79.0 - - - - - 71.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 36.1 - - 34.9 - - - - - 31.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 293 - - 265 - - - - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2696 - - 3845 - - - - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 4 - - - - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97873 33 273 27 250 35 280 97873 90554 21 261 27 255 20 286 90554 84918 13 256 20 261 14 282 84918 80217 6 283 8 272 10 272 80217 76170 6 320 3 046 8 290 76170 72607 5 312 3 029 6 311 72607 69402 3 016 5 022 3 088 69402 66488 8 091 2 024 10 081 66488 63809 11 107 3 143 13 046 63809 61224 2 135 0 297 11 002 61224 58536 1 340 4 264 10 286 58536 55747 10 303 8 293 14 264 55747 53079 13 291 14 274 22 262 53079 50657 22 272 19 272 21 267 50657 48460 27 253 30 270 31 266 48460 46456 35 245 44 256 41 256 46456 44610 42 238 46 243 47 253 44610 42894 45 236 45 240 53 246 42894 41290 49 236 50 238 57 240 41290 39786 52 235 56 236 57 238 39786 38372 53 234 59 234 58 236 38372 37010 50 233 55 231 57 234 37010 35634 46 230 51 228 54 231 35634 34219 42 227 46 225 49 230 34219 32765 38 224 40 224 40 229 32765 31258 34 219 34 222 33 223 31258 29684 30 216 29 219 29 210 29684 28041 23 216 25 218 25 201 28041 26326 16 207 18 216 17 183 26326 24543 12 183 12 198 14 166 24543 22693 15 144 15 141 17 157 22693 20768 21 124 21 125 21 144 20768 18763 23 128 19 133 23 140 18763 16719 19 132 17 148 16 142 16719 14753 13 130 13 153 5 121 14753 12964 8 110 7 134 4 032 12964 11370 10 075 4 098 9 060 11370 9952 6 087 5 147 12 067 9952 8691 8 133 16 148 8 093 8691 7565 19 138 28 134 19 134 7565 6565 35 132 36*127 35 133 6565 5684 46 126 40*124 48 129 5684 4906 48*125 41 123 53 126 4906 4210 48*124 41 123 51 124 4210 3593 47 125 40 123 46 124 3593 3077 45 125 39 123 40 124 3077 2680 43 125 38 123 33 127 2680 2406 40 125 35 123 26 129 2406 2240 36 125 32 122 23 129 2240 2144 26 125 23 122 13*130 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography