DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/14 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 58.6 - - 68.7 - - 74.3 - - 72.1 - - 62.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 17 - - 261 - - 276 - - 20 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 138 - - 2540 - - 3291 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3625 - - 4202 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2238 - - 4640 - - 5391 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1449 - - 859 - - 1221 - - 3979 - - 541 Hgt.Variab. W* 57 - - 359 - - 398 - - 41 - - 5 W* B/S 5 - - 25 - - 9 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 3 - - 8 - - 8 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 251 - - 352 - - 342 - - 359 - - 029 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3962 - - -4390 - - -6058 - - -8943 - - -5762 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6201 - - 9030 - - 11450 - - 11087 - - 7906 sfcLCL ODpotential -14408 - - -13421 - - -14435 - - -17247 - - -15796 ODpotential blCL 16646 - - 18061 - - 19826 - - 19391 - - 17940 blCL maxRH 46 - - 39 - - 28 - - 26 - - 30 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 58.6 - - 68.7 - - 74.3 - - 72.1 - - 62.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.2 - - 36.8 - - 31.6 - - 31.2 - - 35.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.3 - - 66.8 - - 72.3 - - 72.0 - - 65.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.4 - - 36.1 - - 30.9 - - 30.7 - - 35.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 17 - - 261 - - 276 - - 20 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 138 - - 2540 - - 3291 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97746 15 258 31 274 29 274 24 283 20 276 97746 90443 7 274 21 279 23 268 25 273 24 285 90443 84780 8 313 10 265 16 262 16 274 20 290 84780 80095 9 299 4 244 10 250 8 306 12 336 80095 76085 9 293 2 278 5 265 3 291 6 342 76085 72564 6 327 4 022 4 202 6 329 2 057 72564 69402 2 079 5 054 4 130 1 334 7 023 69402 66496 6 078 5 131 3 093 2 004 7 028 66496 63802 10 014 4 116 7 121 1 148 5 360 63802 61202 8 298 5 162 7 187 6 229 7 297 61202 58500 13 255 7 251 8 250 11 234 20 232 58500 55701 26 261 28 279 28 281 24 286 20 291 55701 53038 34 246 39 264 36 270 33 271 29 282 53038 50640 44 253 37 262 33 273 33 270 28 281 50640 48470 45 254 39 269 39 278 34 272 24 292 48470 46475 48 259 42 270 43 270 32 275 25 310 46475 44625 54 258 45 265 43 263 33 280 29 312 44625 42899 60 253 47 262 43 260 36 280 34 307 42899 41280 62 249 49 260 43 261 40 278 36 300 41280 39759 62 252 48 258 43 262 41 274 37 291 39759 38326 59 257 44 263 42 262 41 269 37 282 38326 36947 56 259 42 268 40 262 38 265 36 276 36947 35554 56 260 39 273 36 269 34 267 33 273 35554 34120 55 257 38 282 36 278 30 277 31 272 34120 32651 50 257 40 286 37 288 32 289 31 278 32651 31138 47 264 42 280 39 295 37 292 35 284 31138 29569 46 266 40 279 39 300 38 290 38 286 29569 27934 43 271 36 286 39 304 35 291 36 286 27934 26228 42 275 35 292 38 309 32 295 30 281 26228 24449 42 276 34 292 36 309 31 297 27 276 24449 22600 42 281 33 288 33 298 28 299 25 280 22600 20677 41 288 32 288 31 285 27 295 25 287 20677 18674 41 294 32 292 30 282 27 292 24 293 18674 16631 38 296 32 301 28 293 25 300 22 304 16631 14664 33 298 31 312 24 304 22 308 21 316 14664 12877 28 298 28 318 21 312 17 312 16 322 12877 11291 24 298 22 319 18 320 14 321 11 336 11291 9882 21 301 16 311 15 330 12 332 9 354 9882 8628 20 305 13 309 9 330 9 338 8 001 8628 7513 17 314 10 317 7 317 9 335 9 002 7513 6526 14 313 10 322 8 318 10 336 11 003 6526 5656 11 297 9 322 8*326 11 342 12 360 5656 4887 6 270 4*318 8*330 11 348 13 355 4887 4196 2 224 3*329 8 336 11 351 13 355 4196 3584 1 211 3 342 8 340 11 354 12 359 3584 3071 3 285 3 353 8 345 11 356 11 008 3071 2676 4 278 3 360 8 348 11 357 10 019 2676 2404 3*259 3 007 8 350 10 358 8 027 2404 2238 2*249 3 009 8 351 9 359 4*031 2238 2144 2 252 3 010 7 352 8*359 2*029 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography