DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/05 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.9 - - 87.1 - - 92.8 - - 92.3 - - 83.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 276 - - 260 - - 24 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 3369 - - 7381 - - 268 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 4263 - - 7334 - - 2129 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 5469 - - 9481 - - 2368 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1702 - - 3384 - - 2052 - - 9582 - - 485 Hgt.Variab. W* 28 - - 402 - - 511 - - 78 - - 6 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 14 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 12 - - 18 - - 6 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 135 - - 135 - - 134 - - 043 - - 021 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -3 - - -5 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3665 - - -3495 - - -1368 - - -8653 - - -6795 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5810 - - 8964 - - 10849 - - 11021 - - 8940 sfcLCL ODpotential -8053 - - -6987 - - -4247 - - -11477 - - -10380 ODpotential blCL 10198 - - 12456 - - 13728 - - 13845 - - 12525 blCL maxRH 86 - - 81 - - 90 - - 92 - - 89 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 20 - - 20 - - 10 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 75.9 - - 87.1 - - 92.8 - - 92.3 - - 83.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 57.9 - - 55.2 - - 52.4 - - 51.2 - - 52.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.2 - - 85.2 - - 90.8 - - 91.8 - - 86.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 57.1 - - 54.8 - - 52.0 - - 50.8 - - 52.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 276 - - 260 - - 24 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 3369 - - 7381 - - 268 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 42 - - 22 - - 61 - - 69 - - 57 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 9 - - 8 - - 9 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98106 17 246 7 250 8 233 14 241 9 237 98106 90718 10 205 5 224 12 208 8 235 9 287 90718 85036 13 118 7 177 10 199 8 204 8 270 85036 80310 11 111 8 191 8 205 5 211 4 172 80310 76237 5 072 7 173 5 188 2 165 3 096 76237 72669 5 065 6 118 4 152 6 075 8 056 72669 69483 9 083 8 096 4 095 8 051 15 046 69483 66588 13 056 10 081 5 063 6 040 15 034 66588 63928 11 037 11 066 6 039 7 036 12 033 63928 61366 8 045 11 036 8 018 8 012 9 016 61366 58712 11 350 8 009 8 015 9 355 8 320 58712 55983 20 319 14 336 12 343 14 322 14 313 55983 53386 29 302 18 313 17 306 25 311 29 324 53386 51035 28 297 20 313 25 317 30 317 35 322 51035 48902 30 309 28 321 32 326 34 318 37 318 48902 46944 34 308 34 316 37 322 36 321 39 319 46944 45129 35 303 33 306 38 315 37 318 42 317 45129 43438 33 297 32 299 37 308 35 314 41 312 43438 41852 32 297 32 296 35 301 33 309 38 307 41852 40356 33 303 31 296 34 296 31 304 36 303 40356 38940 32 307 30 299 33 296 30 302 35 301 38940 37568 32 315 31 307 33 298 30 303 34 302 37568 36173 33 323 31 310 33 302 30 304 33 304 36173 34730 30 320 37 324 33 304 31 306 31 303 34730 33241 24 310 28 327 27 312 31 316 28 310 33241 31692 20 298 19 306 19 303 25 315 24 328 31692 30073 18 280 17 291 18 283 20 303 19 299 30073 28385 10 276 15 267 19 280 18 293 20 290 28385 26629 9 233 14 243 18 274 19 297 13 306 26629 24808 8 174 14 216 19 255 17 295 14 310 24808 22933 7 161 12 214 16 252 16 273 11 294 22933 20995 6 180 9 213 8 254 7 278 5 280 20995 18982 5 187 4 177 2 187 3 154 4 156 18982 16929 1 138 4 107 5 108 5 143 5 142 16929 14952 3 163 4 111 5 115 4 172 2 285 14952 13156 7 143 4 123 4 154 4 205 5 234 13156 11561 6 154 5 142 6 190 7 186 10 192 11561 10138 6 169 5 147 6*169 7 166 8 174 10138 8864 6 171 4 167 7*153 6 157 6 148 8864 7725 4 193 5 188 7 149 5 148 4 124 7725 6709 6 216 8 176 7 142 3 113 3 089 6709 5809 10 183 13*154 7 135 3 090 4 067 5809 5009 18 157 17*139 7 129 3 075 6 063 5009 4289 27 144 18 136 7 126 3 061 7 064 4289 3649 33 136 19 135 7 123 4 053 9 064 3649 3114 30 134 19 135 6 121 4 047 10 057 3114 2701 25 134 18 134 6 119 4 044 10 043 2701 2417 21 134 17 134 6 118 4*044 9 030 2417 2244 18*135 16 134 6 117 4*042 6 024 2244 2145 12*135 14 134 6 118 4 043 3*021 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography