DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/29 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.3 - - 79.7 - - 85.1 - - 80.9 - - 69.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 179 - - 195 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2819 - - 7138 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3675 - - 6969 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 4919 - - 9238 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 176 - - 2710 - - 2263 - - 8689 - - 380 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 327 - - 459 - - 13 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 10 - - 11 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 7 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 162 - - 182 - - 230 - - 292 - - 251 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - 10 - - -1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4535 - - -6580 - - -2957 - - -7695 - - -4569 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6679 - - 11500 - - 12196 - - 9840 - - 6714 sfcLCL ODpotential -11893 - - -10133 - - -5364 - - -10063 - - -9841 ODpotential blCL 14037 - - 15052 - - 14602 - - 12208 - - 11986 blCL maxRH 58 - - 89 - - 80 - - 54 - - 75 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 150 - - 890 CAPE Temp@2m 61.3 - - 79.7 - - 85.1 - - 80.9 - - 69.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.1 - - 36.7 - - 38.6 - - 45.2 - - 48.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.7 - - 78.2 - - 83.3 - - 81.8 - - 73.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.9 - - 36.3 - - 38.2 - - 44.8 - - 48.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 179 - - 195 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2819 - - 7138 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 56 - - 19 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97224 42 269 58 267 50 266 56 272 57 277 97224 89922 36 269 38 268 40 266 38 274 33 276 89922 84353 33 271 31 271 35 275 27 272 22 273 84353 79741 23 255 27 261 32 271 22 278 23 277 79741 75778 15 240 17 262 21 269 19 273 25 276 75778 72282 18 252 13 257 17 265 19 257 22 272 72282 69093 24 239 17 236 18 244 18 242 17 259 69093 66120 21 237 19 240 17 251 22 256 17 263 66120 63340 21 243 29 247 28 252 30 250 26 260 63340 60644 29 241 36 233 38 235 36 246 36 255 60644 57845 36 245 38 231 42 231 44 245 44 249 57845 54972 49 242 42 236 43 228 49 241 50 247 54972 52251 53 244 44 237 41 238 48 242 52 236 52251 49800 58 244 46 237 46 245 49 250 39 253 49800 47602 61 239 47 235 51 242 54 251 60 275 47602 45612 60 234 48 234 51 237 53 246 64 264 45612 43793 58 231 46 232 49 234 50 241 56 248 43793 42118 53 226 44 229 44 230 49 237 48 243 42118 40565 45 224 46 224 40 229 45 236 44 239 40565 39115 42 228 45 217 39 224 41 236 41 234 39115 37755 45 228 38 215 39 217 33 226 36 234 37755 36449 45 228 36 220 41 214 33 225 33 239 36449 35128 42 228 36 222 39 216 34 225 33 242 35128 33761 39 227 34 222 38 218 31 231 34 237 33761 32345 37 226 33 225 36 217 31 235 32 231 32345 30868 38 224 32 225 33 223 29 231 31 227 30868 29318 37 216 30 220 29 224 27 222 31 227 29318 27697 31 207 28 209 29 218 26 223 29 221 27697 26010 26 200 30 198 30 212 29 228 26 213 26010 24258 24 197 30 197 30 208 28 227 24 215 24258 22443 22 203 26 198 25 206 22 222 22 218 22443 20561 19 212 21 200 19 202 16 213 17 214 20561 18607 13 230 16 206 14 205 13 204 12 211 18607 16615 12 238 12 213 12 214 11 205 11 207 16615 14691 12 228 14 215 13 212 13 205 11 198 14691 12934 13 214 16 210 16 203 15 199 13 194 12934 11365 14 204 17 202 18 196 15 187 15 190 11365 9964 16 195 19 193 14*201 12 184 17 182 9964 8715 17 187 19 190 12*205 9 193 13 180 8715 7600 17 185 17 192 11 209 7 217 7 198 7600 6607 16 185 15 195 9 221 6 248 5 231 6607 5727 14 184 12 196 7 232 6 262 5 265 5727 4944 12 183 10*193 7 240 7 271 5 286 4944 4240 11 181 8*188 7 247 7 277 6 297 4240 3614 11 180 7 183 6 254 7 282 6 306 3614 3090 13 180 6 180 6 259 7 285 6 319 3090 2687 14 178 5 178 6 261 7 288 5 337 2687 2409 12 172 5 177 6 263 7 290 3 356 2409 2241 8*163 4 176 6 264 6*291 1*350 2241 2145 4*162 4 176 5 265 5*292 1*251 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography