DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 01/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.7 - - 64.0 - - 72.8 - - 70.1 - - 56.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -14 - - 120 - - 166 - - -15 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 713 - - 3589 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 4190 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2813 - - 5689 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 61 - - 1290 - - 1718 - - 5086 - - 337 Hgt.Variab. W* 3 - - 180 - - 344 - - 9 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 22 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 6 - - 3 - - 6 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 160 - - 155 - - 190 - - 329 - - 255 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -2 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4524 - - -9704 - - -9728 - - -12743 - - -8122 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6667 - - 12518 - - 15417 - - 14888 - - 10266 sfcLCL ODpotential -17288 - - -18442 - - -16682 - - -19839 - - -17529 ODpotential blCL 19431 - - 21255 - - 22371 - - 21983 - - 19672 blCL maxRH 60 - - 71 - - 75 - - 31 - - 74 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.7 - - 64.0 - - 72.8 - - 70.1 - - 56.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.1 - - 17.0 - - 12.3 - - 12.3 - - 19.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 46.9 - - 62.8 - - 71.3 - - 71.1 - - 61.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.0 - - 16.7 - - 11.9 - - 11.8 - - 19.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -14 - - 120 - - 166 - - -15 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 713 - - 3589 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95895 12 298 13 309 23 238 22 246 41 269 95895 88837 7 293 14 309 9 252 19 268 22 290 88837 83414 4 295 20 277 15 307 19 288 15 340 83414 78925 6 327 21 271 22 297 18 308 15 358 78925 75064 8 321 14 273 19 300 17 316 14 349 75064 71641 14 342 11 295 18 314 16 315 15 341 71641 68528 20 334 12 318 18 328 18 333 16 325 68528 65670 25 327 16 330 20 336 20 338 19 331 65670 63038 28 324 18 317 24 320 23 325 25 332 63038 60495 28 322 20 324 23 316 25 317 29 325 60495 57831 34 322 29 330 27 319 26 309 31 317 57831 55045 42 318 36 323 33 312 33 304 35 310 55045 52363 44 310 41 315 38 310 39 300 39 302 52363 49930 49 306 44 307 44 307 43 301 41 304 49930 47725 51 302 52 301 52 302 50 296 50 300 47725 45701 52 298 50 298 49 301 53 293 53 294 45701 43831 53 301 49 300 51 301 56 295 58 295 43831 42104 57 304 56 296 69 288 67 290 67 285 42104 40522 63 305 73 298 67 292 77 281 71 275 40522 39067 75 305 86 301 71 300 68 285 66 275 39067 37711 61 308 67 294 72 296 71 287 68 280 37711 36403 52 311 42 283 61 289 70 285 66 280 36403 35075 45 313 40 291 55 283 64 285 63 282 35075 33696 37 311 41 288 52 280 58 282 63 278 33696 32270 38 310 45 289 50 281 57 280 60 274 32270 30786 40 309 49 287 48 278 52 283 52 275 30786 29230 38 306 47 290 44 277 42 285 45 279 29230 27602 36 304 41 291 41 278 37 282 41 278 27602 25902 34 304 37 288 38 278 30 276 36 271 25902 24139 31 307 32 291 32 282 27 274 30 266 24139 22319 27 312 28 306 26 288 21 271 26 261 22319 20428 24 308 21 304 21 287 17 268 22 263 20428 18460 16 296 16 289 20 275 17 270 22 270 18460 16456 12 287 13 291 16 280 13 273 18 277 16456 14525 9 275 10 294 11 287 8 266 15 281 14525 12768 8 261 10 288 10 280 8 268 13 279 12768 11204 8 251 10 279 11 272 10 265 13 276 11204 9813 8 249 8 269 11 261 13 249 12 266 9813 8576 6 253 6 252 11 241 15 224 11 248 8576 7474 4 272 4 228 11 222 13 220 12 235 7474 6496 2 317 3 202 9*208 9 230 12 231 6496 5632 2 068 4 178 5*193 5 260 10 243 5632 4867 5 091 5 160 4 192 5 304 7 260 4867 4180 5 094 7 156 3 190 6 321 4 278 4180 3571 4 123 9 154 3 187 7 326 2 321 3571 3062 6 139 9*154 2 188 8 328 3 359 3062 2670 7 144 7*155 2 185 9 330 5 001 2670 2401 6 150 6 155 1 182 8 329 5 356 2401 2237 6*153 5 154 1 184 7*330 2 345 2237 2143 5*160 5 154 1 182 6*329 1*255 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography