DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 02/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 61.0 - - 68.9 - - 70.7 - - 56.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 240 - - 309 - - 49 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2260 - - 3833 - - 2469 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3382 - - 4648 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4360 - - 5933 - - 4569 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1604 - - 1389 - - 2847 - - 296 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 333 - - 432 - - 202 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 26 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 3 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 108 - - 079 - - 006 - - 330 Direction Wind Shear - - - 3 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -7 - - -7 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -5550 - - -7104 - - -8977 - - -8106 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9910 - - 13038 - - 13547 - - 10250 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -14619 - - -14756 - - -16317 - - -18816 ODpotential blCL - - - 18979 - - 20689 - - 20886 - - 20959 blCL maxRH - - - 34 - - 29 - - 49 - - 25 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 61.0 - - 68.9 - - 70.7 - - 56.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 25.3 - - 19.1 - - 18.7 - - 20.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 59.4 - - 66.9 - - 70.1 - - 61.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 25.1 - - 18.8 - - 18.5 - - 20.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 240 - - 309 - - 49 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2260 - - 3833 - - 2469 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96556 25 107 17 111 10 143 9 092 96556 89387 10 101 7 096 9 109 14 108 89387 83870 4 165 1 318 4 079 10 069 83870 79304 7 096 6 205 1 052 6 086 79304 75361 2 335 10 163 6 185 3 231 75361 71863 9 234 3 222 2 302 6 332 71863 68686 10 216 11 237 11 275 14 309 68686 65778 14 236 18 242 16 275 19 292 65778 63091 10 249 20 254 16 272 22 287 63091 60483 21 279 24 266 25 266 31 271 60483 57762 33 274 32 273 35 264 35 263 57762 54953 39 275 44 277 45 275 41 275 54953 52274 46 277 58 274 58 275 49 276 52274 49852 55 277 63 271 60 271 55 268 49852 47679 63 281 63 275 60 271 55 270 47679 45704 69 282 65 276 60 274 56 274 45704 43895 70 280 63 276 59 277 61 271 43895 42244 68 281 57 276 62 277 60 270 42244 40725 69 275 54 278 64 274 66 271 40725 39299 66 269 53 277 64 273 70 267 39299 37950 64 272 52 277 63 275 70 265 37950 36640 65 280 50 278 63 277 68 264 36640 35306 67 283 51 279 62 280 60 268 35306 33920 67 284 52 280 65 282 53 269 33920 32487 66 286 53 280 60 283 49 267 32487 30992 66 290 54 280 53 284 48 268 30992 29424 63 290 55 279 50 280 46 269 29424 27781 59 287 53 281 47 279 42 270 27781 26066 54 285 51 281 43 279 40 269 26066 24282 49 287 49 281 41 281 38 272 24282 22435 47 289 44 279 37 284 32 277 22435 20518 43 291 38 278 33 279 26 282 20518 18527 39 294 34 283 28 275 23 282 18527 16504 36 304 31 289 22 278 19 275 16504 14560 30 309 25 295 15 284 16 272 14560 12793 21 305 18 293 10 281 12 269 12793 11225 14 295 12 283 6 258 8 251 11225 9832 12 299 8 284 4 220 7 198 9832 8595 8 319 3 337 6 164 11 175 8595 7491 4 041 6 110 8 137 15 157 7491 6510 6 098 5*111 7 122 14 133 6510 5643 8 111 4*106 6 110 13 113 5643 4873 7*110 4 100 4*073 11 089 4873 4183 6*111 3 085 5*019 10 061 4183 3572 5 111 3 074 6 007 10 031 3572 3062 4 110 3 058 6 004 11 008 3062 2670 4 106 3 049 6 003 12 353 2670 2400 3 102 3 045 6 002 11 347 2400 2237 3 100 3 043 6 002 6 341 2237 2143 3 099 3 042 6 001 4*330 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography