DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/02 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 2149z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 60.0 - - 63.7 - - 66.1 - - 62.4 - - 57.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 5 - - 68 - - 50 - - -9 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 139 - - 2418 - - 2963 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2930 - - 3117 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2239 - - 4518 - - 5063 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2356 - - 1629 - - 1341 - - 3404 - - 1117 Hgt.Variab. W* 44 - - 245 - - 245 - - 21 - - 5 W* B/S 3 - - 17 - - 9 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 201 - - 336 - - 324 - - 339 - - 012 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -257 - - 721 - - 603 - - -865 - - -191 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2496 - - 3797 - - 4460 - - 3009 - - 2335 sfcLCL ODpotential -1888 - - -644 - - -8984 - - -2001 - - -10870 ODpotential blCL 4127 - - 5162 - - 14047 - - 4145 - - 13014 blCL maxRH 85 - - 86 - - 79 - - 76 - - 77 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 10 - - 10 - - 10 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 60.0 - - 63.7 - - 66.1 - - 62.4 - - 57.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 56.3 - - 54.4 - - 53.9 - - 56.4 - - 54.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.8 - - 63.0 - - 65.5 - - 63.1 - - 59.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 55.6 - - 53.0 - - 52.6 - - 55.1 - - 53.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 5 - - 68 - - 50 - - -9 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 139 - - 2418 - - 2963 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 38 - - 44 - - 16 - - 5 - - 10 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 9 - - 8 - - 10 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97167 58 277 70 277 58 276 61 268 73 266 97167 89986 30 288 39 283 39 281 37 284 41 288 89986 84453 13 293 17 296 26 306 21 317 23 309 84453 79877 8 313 6 284 12 295 16 312 13 015 79877 75933 12 008 4 346 3 084 6 312 13 025 75933 72424 11 010 7 074 6 085 4 067 8 014 72424 69248 7 016 5 063 5 042 5 055 6 021 69248 66336 10 341 4 109 4 172 4 226 5 016 66336 63633 10 296 2 288 5 115 3 169 2 025 63633 61013 14 273 10 280 5 317 2 058 7 309 61013 58294 17 255 20 267 22 269 12 287 17 301 58294 55515 14 248 21 262 28 268 27 282 27 311 55515 52879 18 276 30 270 32 278 34 297 36 316 52879 50502 38 278 36 288 42 291 52 295 61 311 50502 48383 46 279 44 290 46 296 61 295 66 308 48383 46457 52 276 50 295 60 308 63 304 57 317 46457 44675 50 272 58 300 63 314 62 318 63 326 44675 43007 52 286 59 305 64 325 75 330 71 327 43007 41439 59 291 62 322 75 332 85 331 75 326 41439 39961 57 297 73 331 82 333 86 331 74 324 39961 38563 57 308 79 332 83 331 83 330 74 322 38563 37208 63 314 78 331 79 328 77 327 75 322 37208 35832 64 313 70 327 76 325 73 322 74 323 35832 34408 60 313 64 322 70 326 72 317 69 321 34408 32943 56 315 59 317 64 323 68 314 65 318 32943 31422 56 318 53 312 60 313 64 317 63 315 31422 29827 57 318 51 309 54 308 56 321 59 322 29827 28159 56 317 50 309 50 306 51 316 50 325 28159 26416 53 315 50 309 50 302 49 308 39 319 26416 24601 52 310 52 306 50 302 49 305 40 310 24601 22715 56 307 54 305 48 304 49 309 40 312 22715 20759 59 309 52 309 45 306 50 316 38 316 20759 18731 57 310 48 311 42 310 45 316 36 315 18731 16674 53 307 43 310 39 310 39 312 35 316 16674 14695 49 304 39 311 36 310 36 313 36 322 14695 12892 43 304 34 316 33 313 34 322 33 328 12892 11285 34 302 28 316 29 317 31 332 28 335 11285 9863 27 296 22 317 22 321 26 337 23 343 9863 8604 24 286 16 315 17 325 19 342 20 357 8604 7491 19 280 13 309 12 327 13 349 18 012 7491 6505 14 282 11 290 9 321 8 350 15 031 6505 5636 11 301 9 281 7*316 5 331 10 043 5636 4870 10 322 3*307 5*319 4 322 7 033 4870 4182 6 343 3*324 5 322 4 327 7 019 4182 3573 1 354 3 332 5 324 5 332 7 020 3573 3064 2 194 3 338 5 325 6 336 8 026 3064 2672 4 203 3 341 5 328 6 338 9 027 2672 2402 4*201 3 344 5 328 6 339 7 028 2402 2237 3*203 3 345 5 329 5*340 4*027 2237 2144 2 200 2 344 4 330 4*339 2*012 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography