DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/19 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - - - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 80.4 - - 85.8 - - 92.4 - - - - - 90.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - 49 - - 163 - - - - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 46 - - 1196 - - 3753 - - - - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 2129 - - 4313 - - - - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2146 - - 3296 - - 5853 - - - - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2483 - - 3839 - - 4779 - - - - - 9863 Hgt.Variab. W* 34 - - 171 - - 350 - - - - - 8 W* B/S 1 - - 6 - - 109 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 5 - - 1 - - - - - 3 BL Wind Direction 150 - - 149 - - 134 - - - - - 305 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 8 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -15 - - - - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1687 - - -2431 - - -2841 - - - - - -6916 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3834 - - 5727 - - 8695 - - - - - 9062 sfcLCL ODpotential -4842 - - -4782 - - -4081 - - - - - -8752 ODpotential blCL 6988 - - 8078 - - 9934 - - - - - 10898 blCL maxRH 100 - - 101 - - 99 - - - - - 99 maxRH CAPE 1560 - - 1520 - - 820 - - - - - 370 CAPE Temp@2m 80.4 - - 85.8 - - 92.4 - - - - - 90.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 70.3 - - 67.7 - - 61.4 - - - - - 58.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 81.0 - - 85.3 - - 90.9 - - - - - 92.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 68.9 - - 66.7 - - 61.2 - - - - - 57.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - 49 - - 163 - - - - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 46 - - 1196 - - 3753 - - - - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 103 - - 94 - - - - - 96 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 17 - - 15 - - 12 - - - - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99022 39 099 40 098 42 104 39 102 99022 91573 38 096 35 110 34 108 28 097 91573 85812 35 093 36 102 34 108 23 094 85812 81006 32 103 34 097 34 100 31 093 81006 76896 30 104 30 103 27 098 32 093 76896 73301 26 090 28 106 25 107 25 087 73301 70049 21 080 24 105 27 108 20 103 70049 67058 13 099 16 099 23 097 25 104 67058 64308 11 118 9 116 12 089 26 089 64308 61682 24 101 16 136 5 149 14 078 61682 58961 30 091 26 115 18 136 12 119 58961 56149 26 083 34 095 28 115 22 107 56149 53483 24 081 34 083 32 101 29 100 53483 51088 27 079 26 076 31 086 30 096 51088 48928 25 069 22 080 27 079 27 098 48928 46954 23 062 22 082 24 081 25 095 46954 45126 23 062 25 072 23 078 22 089 45126 43426 28 059 29 061 24 074 19 096 43426 41840 31 049 32 052 22 065 14 109 41840 40352 29 042 32 044 19 049 11 120 40352 38949 27 045 24 047 18 040 8 094 38949 37592 23 042 20 058 8 049 8 083 37592 36211 20 035 19 053 8 067 11 090 36211 34777 15 044 14 040 9 043 14 099 34777 33295 14 029 9 039 10 025 15 105 33295 31752 12 017 10 033 11 031 14 110 31752 30139 8 030 12 036 11 041 11 106 30139 28455 7 038 10 048 8 049 10 098 28455 26702 8 043 8 051 6 047 8 091 26702 24883 11 072 8 070 4 085 8 079 24883 23000 12 086 9 096 7 132 8 084 23000 21048 9 075 5 107 7 122 9 091 21048 19024 4 038 3 280 1 087 10 087 19024 16970 3 004 4 306 1 042 10 098 16970 14995 6 339 2 342 1 033 8 122 14995 13200 6 340 4 001 2 305 3 128 13200 11602 5 334 7 317 7 298 7 261 11602 10176 6 306 10 294 9 293 12 261 10176 8900 6 312 10 290 9 291 11 265 8900 7758 5 304 7 284 8 293 9 272 7758 6739 6 290 5 288 7*296 8 283 6739 5835 6 278 3 300 5*299 7 293 5835 5031 5 252 2 312 3 304 8 299 5031 4307 6 219 1 310 0 291 8 304 4307 3663 8 195 1*168 2 125 8 308 3663 3123 9 175 4*152 3 126 8 310 3123 2707 8 155 5 149 3 127 7 311 2707 2420 8 152 5 148 4 125 7 310 2420 2246 7*150 5 147 4 125 5*308 2246 2146 6*150 5 147 4 125 3*305 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography