DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/12 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 81.0 - - 92.5 - - 101.4 - - 95.1 - - 82.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 139 - - 445 - - 481 - - -3 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1556 - - 3806 - - 7370 - - 46 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2650 - - 4755 - - 7626 - - 2130 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 3656 - - 5906 - - 9470 - - 2146 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1054 - - 1782 - - 5534 - - 11141 - - 1418 Hgt.Variab. W* 247 - - 487 - - 623 - - 43 - - 33 W* B/S 7 - - 14 - - 24 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 031 - - 005 - - 066 - - 228 - - 223 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 6 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 4 - - 3 - - -9 - - -1 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -479 - - -2489 - - -1375 - - -5546 - - -950 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4135 - - 8396 - - 10845 - - 7692 - - 3096 sfcLCL ODpotential -4403 - - -4955 - - -2159 - - -7493 - - -5784 ODpotential blCL 8059 - - 10861 - - 11629 - - 9639 - - 7930 blCL maxRH 82 - - 70 - - 68 - - 97 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 1780 - - 1170 - - 1700 - - 3130 - - 3770 CAPE Temp@2m 81.0 - - 92.5 - - 101.4 - - 95.1 - - 82.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 69.7 - - 62.8 - - 60.9 - - 68.5 - - 75.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 79.7 - - 89.6 - - 98.2 - - 96.1 - - 83.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 69.5 - - 62.8 - - 60.8 - - 67.3 - - 74.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 139 - - 445 - - 481 - - -3 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1556 - - 3806 - - 7370 - - 46 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 28 - - 0 - - 0 - - 86 - - 90 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 16 - - 13 - - 12 - - 16 - - 20 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99069 40 094 35 116 26 110 24 092 40 087 99069 91647 43 085 41 092 30 106 27 105 24 089 91647 85899 37 087 35 092 35 100 31 102 20 089 85899 81091 32 100 26 099 33 095 30 092 29 093 81091 76963 29 103 26 102 28 096 26 088 32 094 76963 73334 25 110 26 107 23 099 24 086 30 093 73334 70070 28 110 24 114 16 113 21 088 24 093 70070 67092 31 101 27 117 20 127 19 099 17 095 67092 64347 26 090 29 106 29 114 24 114 20 114 64347 61708 20 080 22 098 31 100 29 116 28 115 61708 58990 15 098 20 116 28 112 30 117 29 114 58990 56192 21 120 32 125 29 125 32 123 31 123 56192 53529 35 126 38 127 33 125 35 128 33 126 53529 51132 44 130 42 129 41 132 44 135 40 133 51132 48978 52 129 47 129 47 134 47 132 45 129 48978 47009 51 124 50 126 47 132 45 136 41 131 47009 45192 43 124 44 126 44 131 45 140 39 141 45192 43505 39 120 40 128 39 136 42 135 42 144 43505 41926 40 108 34 118 36 138 37 134 43 142 41926 40435 33 097 32 121 31 134 36 148 39 140 40435 39024 26 084 33 118 26 138 36 164 35 143 39024 37657 22 074 32 110 26 151 32 164 32 149 37657 36269 20 081 32 105 25 148 29 158 29 154 36269 34831 22 091 34 100 19 140 24 155 26 158 34831 33346 22 090 32 103 23 137 21 147 22 161 33346 31802 19 092 27 107 28 127 16 137 18 154 31802 30188 22 105 19 104 25 126 15 149 18 141 30188 28503 21 121 15 097 18 121 18 140 16 135 28503 26751 19 128 14 108 17 114 22 128 20 131 26751 24936 17 131 15 129 15 120 18 116 20 124 24936 23059 18 147 18 138 12 127 15 122 17 110 23059 21113 24 136 22 138 13 134 15 123 18 104 21113 19095 37 122 25 132 15 141 17 116 23 095 19095 17043 40 116 24 128 18 139 20 110 25 090 17043 15070 30 126 20 126 22 126 20 112 22 095 15070 13269 26 136 18 130 25 118 18 114 17 104 13269 11657 24 141 19 127 23 112 15 112 15 106 11657 10216 20 128 19 120 17*106 11 103 11 095 10216 8924 18 090 19 111 13*100 7 087 8 071 8924 7769 19 054 18 097 10 095 5 064 6 047 7769 6740 18 033 13*077 7 086 4 045 3 022 6740 5828 19 019 8*044 4 052 3 032 3 262 5828 5020 16 008 6 010 4 030 2 003 12 240 5020 4294 7*009 6 002 4 015 1 312 18 238 4294 3653 6*034 6 359 4 007 2 257 18 232 3653 3116 7 032 6 356 4 000 3 239 20 227 3116 2703 7 032 6 354 4 357 4 234 20 223 2703 2418 7 030 6 352 4 356 4 231 17 222 2418 2245 7 030 6 353 4 354 4 230 14*222 2245 2146 6 029 5 353 4 354 4*228 9*223 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography