DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.3 - - 64.9 - - 70.8 - - 65.8 - - 59.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 57 - - 39 - - -10 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 676 - - 1091 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2776 - - 3191 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 277 - - 799 - - 1277 - - 1545 - - 307 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 151 - - 164 - - 18 - - 9 W* B/S 3 - - 19 - - 8 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 1 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 215 - - 197 - - 019 - - 358 - - 264 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -2 - - 2 - - 2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1051 - - -1784 - - -2302 - - -751 - - -124 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3194 - - 4560 - - 5493 - - 2895 - - 2268 sfcLCL ODpotential -12460 - - -10936 - - -9880 - - -8050 - - -9601 ODpotential blCL 14603 - - 13712 - - 13071 - - 10194 - - 11745 blCL maxRH 68 - - 64 - - 57 - - 72 - - 74 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 55.3 - - 64.9 - - 70.8 - - 65.8 - - 59.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.8 - - 52.3 - - 54.1 - - 60.2 - - 56.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.6 - - 64.3 - - 70.2 - - 66.9 - - 62.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.6 - - 51.1 - - 52.8 - - 59.2 - - 56.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 57 - - 39 - - -10 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 676 - - 1091 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 9 - - 12 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97064 64 272 74 272 71 276 61 274 68 273 97064 89850 39 265 42 282 40 278 40 277 34 281 89850 84284 18 291 27 288 20 294 21 292 26 306 84284 79699 6 012 6 255 12 256 16 299 18 309 79699 75771 9 051 4 039 3 159 7 243 11 319 75771 72274 11 032 9 067 3 083 4 186 9 320 72274 69092 12 354 8 023 7 023 2 099 5 317 69092 66173 10 345 7 289 10 317 5 010 2 347 66173 63459 6 305 11 256 16 267 13 289 15 309 63459 60820 12 306 10 290 17 257 21 261 23 272 60820 58084 23 290 22 310 21 289 25 270 28 267 58084 55283 43 282 42 285 40 295 36 291 36 277 55283 52648 54 278 59 277 56 280 62 288 61 286 52648 50304 62 287 66 281 67 273 72 279 77 275 50304 48208 66 293 70 285 69 281 73 283 77 280 48208 46292 74 299 77 291 78 293 81 294 85 289 46292 44521 78 300 80 292 83 293 84 292 87 287 44521 42866 79 300 81 294 84 290 81 281 86 282 42866 41306 79 302 81 295 82 287 82 279 84 274 41306 39832 78 303 79 293 81 287 84 282 86 277 39832 38439 76 302 78 294 79 288 83 281 91 278 38439 37093 74 297 79 295 77 286 79 278 89 275 37093 35726 70 294 77 293 75 283 76 275 85 271 35726 34311 67 292 71 289 74 281 73 273 80 270 34311 32850 65 292 68 287 71 280 70 273 73 269 32850 31331 60 292 66 287 69 279 68 274 66 267 31331 29743 49 289 60 289 65 284 64 275 62 269 29743 28086 42 292 49 286 52 290 57 281 59 277 28086 26362 38 299 35 279 42 284 44 283 50 280 26362 24573 36 302 30 284 38 270 37 272 42 272 24573 22715 37 305 30 289 35 269 38 266 41 269 22715 20783 32 309 25 288 29 271 38 268 39 276 20783 18775 26 308 21 283 26 270 31 272 33 283 18775 16731 22 305 15 293 19 269 23 272 23 285 16731 14765 19 312 13 305 13 270 16 265 19 275 14765 12975 15 322 10 315 9 280 11 261 15 260 12975 11380 12 345 7 332 6 301 6 261 11 248 11380 9959 10 008 4 036 2 260 2 201 7 214 9959 8693 9 040 4 083 3 153 6 167 8 188 8693 7569 11 072 7 093 6 139 9 163 11 182 7569 6572 11 079 10 091 9 142 10 165 12 177 6572 5692 10 078 10 093 11 138 9 152 10 166 5692 4913 9 079 9 106 11 135 8 128 10 148 4913 4213 7 086 8 122 9 131 5 093 6 130 4213 3592 5 100 7 143 4*119 6 033 4 069 3592 3075 3 120 5*158 3*022 8 009 5 021 3075 2678 1 144 2*193 4 018 8 001 5 336 2678 2404 0 062 1 200 4 019 7 000 5 306 2404 2239 0 239 1 198 4 020 6 000 4*278 2239 2144 1*215 1 195 4 019 4*358 4*264 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography