DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/08 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 58.0 - - 71.1 - - 77.3 - - 74.7 - - 65.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 205 - - 194 - - -18 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2803 - - 4481 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3725 - - 4938 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4903 - - 6581 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 364 - - 1283 - - 1773 - - 6040 - - 491 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 - - 342 - - 392 - - 14 - - 5 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 16 - - 10 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 067 - - 124 - - 093 - - 100 - - 128 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -1 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2493 - - -2951 - - -2869 - - -6512 - - -4437 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4637 - - 7854 - - 9450 - - 8658 - - 6582 sfcLCL ODpotential -8942 - - -9151 - - -7212 - - -11594 - - -12050 ODpotential blCL 11085 - - 14054 - - 13793 - - 13739 - - 14194 blCL maxRH 56 - - 53 - - 53 - - 48 - - 46 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 58.0 - - 71.1 - - 77.3 - - 74.7 - - 65.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.3 - - 44.2 - - 43.3 - - 44.4 - - 44.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.7 - - 69.5 - - 75.7 - - 75.7 - - 68.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 45.1 - - 43.9 - - 43.0 - - 44.0 - - 44.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 205 - - 194 - - -18 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2803 - - 4481 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97019 67 277 72 275 71 268 72 274 72 277 97019 89690 45 275 45 277 46 272 53 274 54 284 89690 84105 36 284 29 287 32 279 39 273 41 288 84105 79510 26 283 22 286 25 283 27 274 33 282 79510 75546 19 284 22 278 25 286 19 289 21 275 75546 72046 19 301 17 274 22 289 16 310 11 272 72046 68890 19 302 16 277 20 287 17 298 16 308 68890 65997 18 288 13 293 18 275 19 273 20 294 65997 63320 12 283 13 307 16 272 17 263 16 273 63320 60734 10 290 11 287 14 285 16 261 17 270 60734 58048 18 289 15 258 16 273 22 262 19 273 58048 55267 28 284 17 271 20 251 22 243 24 264 55267 52611 27 279 23 296 18 274 20 267 30 262 52611 50213 21 254 27 290 29 288 27 277 27 265 50213 48048 14 247 20 266 32 277 30 280 32 285 48048 46075 12 267 18 246 30 262 33 285 39 293 46075 44259 16 299 16 254 23 267 33 285 40 294 44259 42573 23 308 19 283 22 286 30 290 37 294 42573 40997 29 316 25 307 23 313 26 309 35 298 40997 39518 32 329 30 323 26 332 29 331 32 310 39518 38128 35 344 31 338 34 349 34 340 29 325 38128 36792 42 359 38 354 38 355 35 349 29 342 36792 35439 45 005 44 359 39 360 35 353 30 350 35439 34036 45 009 41 005 37 008 33 355 30 350 34036 32589 47 004 42 014 34 021 29 005 26 006 32589 31087 44 001 45 017 33 032 28 020 25 021 31087 29517 39 007 41 016 34 037 28 031 28 026 29517 27879 37 012 34 015 33 037 26 040 29 035 27879 26172 34 024 32 022 29 034 24 040 29 047 26172 24400 33 038 31 030 26 034 23 033 25 048 24400 22563 33 046 29 040 26 041 23 034 23 046 22563 20651 36 050 28 053 25 048 23 040 23 052 20651 18661 37 056 31 061 25 061 22 047 23 051 18661 16632 34 058 32 062 27 069 24 057 24 048 16632 14673 28 064 28 064 27 069 24 066 24 053 14673 12891 23 076 22 070 21 074 21 075 23 067 12891 11311 20 081 17 078 15 096 15 086 22 077 11311 9911 19 084 14 089 15 110 13 097 19 080 9911 8665 21 093 16 101 17 114 14 101 15 082 8665 7554 25 104 21 113 17*112 14 102 14 091 7554 6566 29 112 27 121 13*103 14 103 15 106 6566 5690 33 118 26*123 11 100 13 103 18 120 5690 4914 33 122 20*124 10 095 13 103 21 128 4914 4216 30 125 18 124 9 092 13 103 23 130 4216 3598 24 126 16 124 9 089 12 103 23 129 3598 3080 16 127 15 124 8 086 12 103 20 127 3080 2681 10 126 14 124 8 084 12 102 16 126 2681 2406 4 105 13 123 8 083 11 101 12 126 2406 2240 2 074 12 123 7 082 9*101 9 124 2240 2144 1*067 10 123 7 081 7*100 5*128 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography