DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 02/07 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.2 - - 72.0 - - 78.3 - - 77.0 - - 65.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -24 - - 212 - - 268 - - 21 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2525 - - 9073 - - 6938 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3529 - - 8682 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4625 - - 11173 - - 9038 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 268 - - 4698 - - 2222 - - 5014 - - 406 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 332 - - 550 - - 219 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 32 - - 10 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 13 - - 3 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 147 - - 147 - - 135 - - 031 - - 350 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -3 - - -5 - - 4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2413 - - -3821 - - -417 - - -2697 - - -7562 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4556 - - 8447 - - 11591 - - 11735 - - 9707 sfcLCL ODpotential -7353 - - -5071 - - -1301 - - -3337 - - -11065 ODpotential blCL 9496 - - 9696 - - 12474 - - 12375 - - 13209 blCL maxRH 88 - - 75 - - 76 - - 89 - - 75 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 80 - - 70 - - 20 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 55.2 - - 72.0 - - 78.3 - - 77.0 - - 65.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 43.0 - - 42.5 - - 34.6 - - 32.8 - - 31.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.1 - - 70.5 - - 76.3 - - 76.6 - - 70.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 43.0 - - 42.4 - - 34.5 - - 32.7 - - 31.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -24 - - 212 - - 268 - - 21 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2525 - - 9073 - - 6938 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 50 - - 0 - - 2 - - 55 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96478 4 175 3 195 9 224 4 286 12 260 96478 89310 5 090 13 160 5 197 6 225 4 066 89310 83826 3 005 7 161 12 147 6 188 3 101 83826 79280 4 252 6 197 9 148 6 131 4 109 79280 75362 3 247 10 172 4 195 8 106 2 122 75362 71892 2 317 7 144 4 177 7 136 1 228 71892 68740 4 239 3 206 4 339 4 103 4 170 68740 65844 6 207 12 225 12 272 10 344 6 136 65844 63178 8 195 11 231 19 232 14 300 6 272 63178 60612 9 215 10 243 20 220 17 247 17 259 60612 57925 15 252 13 242 15 220 19 221 19 239 57925 55102 28 248 19 239 15 235 16 235 20 232 55102 52370 32 233 25 228 21 238 23 251 26 239 52370 49879 30 225 26 216 24 234 23 243 28 237 49879 47622 31 213 25 215 25 228 24 229 27 240 47622 45560 32 209 30 217 29 224 26 223 26 245 45560 43663 33 220 32 212 29 217 23 222 25 236 43663 41916 40 227 31 211 28 211 22 227 22 226 41916 40302 48 224 34 214 31 209 28 223 18 234 40302 38802 56 216 43 213 38 209 32 219 18 248 38802 37397 64 213 55 211 44 214 32 215 22 240 37397 36051 75 214 65 208 50 218 29 217 25 235 36051 34708 84 211 78 207 58 217 31 234 43 234 34708 33338 88 209 89 209 61 217 43 241 61 229 33338 31938 79 208 82 209 59 219 53 234 58 228 31938 30490 66 205 69 207 54 221 52 233 54 232 30490 28976 62 203 58 204 45 226 36 239 44 239 28976 27394 57 203 48 207 36 231 26 240 34 240 27394 25741 49 198 43 210 29 235 24 238 28 242 25741 24019 47 195 38 211 24 235 18 238 20 253 24019 22235 47 203 28 215 19 233 15 245 11 262 22235 20382 35 216 20 217 18 225 13 250 8 276 20382 18449 17 235 14 227 11 224 13 246 6 310 18449 16473 12 243 10 248 6 247 6 227 2 352 16473 14567 12 252 4 251 4 248 9 194 8 175 14567 12831 12 238 3 212 4 200 9 194 12 177 12831 11281 7 232 4 185 4*167 5 189 9 178 11281 9897 1 144 4 134 3*161 3*181 6 172 9897 8657 4 076 5 116 3 157 1*151 4 148 8657 7550 6 082 6 112 3 152 2 057 3 109 7550 6564 7 115 7 132 3 143 3 038 4 073 6564 5689 11 141 11 150 3 134 4 032 5 047 5689 4913 15 154 13*154 3 127 5 029 7 031 4913 4215 20 162 14*150 3 120 5 027 9 018 4215 3597 22 158 14 148 3 113 6 026 12 009 3597 3079 25 137 14 147 3 109 6 026 15 005 3079 2680 25 129 13 146 3 104 6 025 15 004 2680 2405 19 131 13 146 3 104 6 025 12 005 2405 2239 14 135 12 146 3 101 6 025 6*005 2239 2144 6*147 10 145 3 100 5 024 2*350 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography