DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 07/13 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.2 - - 92.2 - - 96.6 - - 93.0 - - 87.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 28 - - 384 - - 276 - - 123 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 662 - - 4045 - - 6691 - - 4418 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 4894 - - 6857 - - 4625 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2762 - - 6145 - - 8791 - - 6518 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 996 - - 2716 - - 4096 - - 2763 - - 5007 Hgt.Variab. W* 126 - - 474 - - 515 - - 336 - - 0 W* B/S 3 - - 84 - - 11 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 1 - - 9 - - 10 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 123 - - 161 - - 157 - - 209 - - 236 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 7 - - 8 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -1 - - 8 - - -6 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 136 - - -2574 - - -226 - - -964 - - -3847 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2626 - - 8719 - - 9017 - - 7482 - - 5993 sfcLCL ODpotential -3437 - - -4269 - - -1304 - - -2725 - - -6778 ODpotential blCL 6199 - - 10414 - - 10095 - - 9243 - - 8924 blCL maxRH 92 - - 75 - - 95 - - 99 - - 90 maxRH CAPE 1780 - - 470 - - 1820 - - 2440 - - 2440 CAPE Temp@2m 77.2 - - 92.2 - - 96.6 - - 93.0 - - 87.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 72.3 - - 61.1 - - 64.1 - - 67.2 - - 68.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.7 - - 89.6 - - 94.5 - - 91.8 - - 89.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 71.3 - - 61.0 - - 63.5 - - 67.0 - - 68.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 28 - - 384 - - 276 - - 123 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 662 - - 4045 - - 6691 - - 4418 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 68 - - 0 - - 79 - - 94 - - 59 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 17 - - 12 - - 13 - - 15 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99008 40 109 39 113 28 108 30 090 38 093 99008 91513 45 092 37 096 44 109 35 102 39 096 91513 85763 42 090 35 088 43 103 39 106 40 100 85763 81010 33 097 32 100 31 087 34 096 34 099 81010 76923 24 103 32 101 26 087 29 091 32 094 76923 73313 19 107 26 093 24 102 26 088 29 089 73313 70067 23 114 20 105 19 101 22 080 24 092 70067 67104 26 110 27 127 26 116 21 103 22 089 67104 64365 27 097 31 121 33 124 24 130 20 110 64365 61729 23 100 26 105 27 120 25 127 26 124 61729 59010 20 093 21 109 21 116 25 127 28 126 59010 56220 30 134 32 145 22 139 22 134 25 125 56220 53569 46 140 46 147 35 150 29 153 22 138 53569 51172 47 140 51 141 46 148 40 153 30 157 51172 49010 49 142 51 141 53 147 48 152 40 158 49010 47033 49 145 49 142 54 145 50 150 45 153 47033 45207 44 150 46 141 51 140 49 145 46 147 45207 43509 42 146 42 140 46 137 47 140 44 142 43509 41921 39 135 38 139 43 136 42 135 40 138 41921 40431 37 137 35 139 42 137 37 141 35 140 40431 39024 37 143 33 138 41 135 37 146 32 143 39024 37663 34 142 33 136 39 131 38 142 32 148 37663 36281 25 148 34 132 37 132 36 138 31 148 36281 34847 22 147 35 128 34 138 32 142 31 143 34847 33364 23 135 34 127 29 147 24 147 29 142 33364 31820 27 137 31 129 26 146 21 148 23 141 31820 30204 27 140 27 132 22 139 22 150 21 140 30204 28516 24 134 25 133 21 132 21 147 20 133 28516 26757 23 134 22 131 20 130 18 136 18 130 26757 24933 19 133 20 134 19 133 17 124 17 128 24933 23050 17 127 17 139 17 139 17 121 16 126 23050 21103 17 128 16 136 14 144 17 121 17 121 21103 19082 19 132 19 129 14 139 17 120 21 112 19082 17029 23 124 20 129 16 130 18 115 24 109 17029 15051 22 123 22 128 18 126 20 111 25 108 15051 13247 19 141 21 122 18 120 21 108 22 111 13247 11638 16 161 19 117 18 118 19 109 19 120 11638 10200 9 160 18 115 16 120 17 114 17 133 10200 8914 10 093 17 116 12*127 15 125 14 146 8914 7767 17 069 15 120 11*129 12 143 8 164 7767 6744 20 050 10*128 9 144 8*182 6 194 6744 5838 19 041 6*141 9 151 9*201 7 210 5838 5032 18 040 3 154 9 158 10 208 7 231 5032 4307 15 046 1 173 9 164 10 210 7 244 4307 3663 9 074 0 217 9 168 10 210 7 247 3663 3123 9*114 1 290 9 170 10 211 7 247 3123 2708 9*122 1 304 9 172 10 210 5 247 2708 2421 8 123 1 313 8 173 10 210 4 245 2421 2246 8 124 1 318 8 173 9 211 3*245 2246 2146 6 124 1 315 8 173 9 211 1*236 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography