DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/30 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 71.7 - - 74.3 - - 72.6 - - 67.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 54 - - 52 - - -9 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3038 - - 3639 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3337 - - 3732 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5138 - - 5739 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2543 - - 2167 - - 4595 - - 1508 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 260 - - 273 - - 30 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 13 - - 29 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 269 - - 259 - - 059 - - 135 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - -2 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 541 - - 367 - - -2592 - - -963 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4597 - - 5373 - - 4737 - - 3107 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2036 - - -1795 - - -5131 - - -4629 ODpotential blCL - - - 7174 - - 7534 - - 7276 - - 6773 blCL maxRH - - - 71 - - 76 - - 84 - - 80 maxRH CAPE - - - 90 - - 60 - - 50 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 71.7 - - 74.3 - - 72.6 - - 67.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 58.5 - - 57.8 - - 58.9 - - 61.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 71.1 - - 73.6 - - 73.5 - - 70.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 57.1 - - 56.4 - - 57.7 - - 59.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 54 - - 52 - - -9 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3038 - - 3639 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 4 - - 36 - - 18 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 10 - - 11 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98000 2 288 7 242 9 249 5 297 98000 90729 3 160 5 094 6 173 1 353 90729 85094 9 158 5 141 4 149 6 085 85094 80380 5 079 13 137 6 126 4 075 80380 76322 4 069 9 122 8 102 6 098 76322 72771 6 141 2 068 9 071 13 090 72771 69583 13 128 7 169 5 105 9 087 69583 66662 12 130 7 163 5 043 5 053 66662 63964 11 117 13 124 3 075 9 043 63964 61365 3 024 5 088 6 114 3 195 61365 58666 2 278 5 193 5 267 5 243 58666 55857 14 269 9 281 13 281 17 295 55857 53175 35 276 29 293 39 294 39 300 53175 50766 46 271 46 281 51 285 47 295 50766 48589 50 272 52 279 53 285 51 294 48589 46594 56 277 56 284 53 290 53 294 46594 44747 63 281 61 288 58 296 54 296 44747 43029 67 282 65 291 62 297 55 299 43029 41424 68 287 64 294 61 299 54 299 41424 39917 68 292 64 301 61 304 50 306 39917 38498 70 290 67 302 60 309 52 313 38498 37131 67 290 65 301 61 313 52 315 37131 35747 59 301 58 305 62 317 50 322 35747 34317 59 306 51 316 57 322 46 331 34317 32848 55 316 50 323 48 327 38 332 32848 31322 54 321 47 324 43 331 32 332 31322 29725 56 320 41 324 42 333 31 340 29725 28060 51 328 37 322 40 336 36 348 28060 26323 45 328 35 321 40 339 34 353 26323 24515 37 319 35 325 38 339 34 347 24515 22641 33 318 36 330 35 343 43 343 22641 20699 33 320 34 332 33 345 45 346 20699 18687 34 331 31 325 32 339 40 352 18687 16648 31 335 30 327 37 340 34 357 16648 14689 26 344 28 337 32 350 32 006 14689 12911 16 337 22 340 21 358 31 014 12911 11333 11 309 17 336 12 005 27 019 11333 9931 14 299 14 317 8 340 21 020 9931 8680 15 304 15 303 10 318 15 016 8680 7565 12 309 12 306 11 310 12 005 7565 6575 8 308 6*296 9 305 11 356 6575 5698 6*295 3*272 6 303 9 355 5698 4920 5*279 2 265 3 319 8 006 4920 4222 4 269 2 261 2 025 5 021 4222 3602 4 267 2 256 3 048 2 063 3602 3084 3 268 1 246 3 055 3 132 3084 2684 3 267 1 245 3 056 3 129 2684 2408 3 268 1 244 3 056 3 120 2408 2240 3 265 1 240 3*058 3 124 2240 2144 3 267 1 242 3*059 3*135 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography