DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/13 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 80.2 - - 89.4 - - 95.0 - - 94.1 - - 83.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 49 - - 405 - - 438 - - 117 - - -28 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 311 - - 6988 - - 9767 - - 8508 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 7241 - - 9530 - - 7604 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2411 - - 9088 - - 11867 - - 10608 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2832 - - 2639 - - 1885 - - 2542 - - 2332 Hgt.Variab. W* 102 - - 578 - - 664 - - 408 - - 5 W* B/S 7 - - 10 - - 7 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 10 - - 17 - - 15 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 132 - - 223 - - 237 - - 248 - - 263 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 9 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -4 - - -10 - - -7 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7877 - - -623 - - -868 - - -4389 - - -12283 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10288 - - 9712 - - 12735 - - 14998 - - 14429 sfcLCL ODpotential -12703 - - -1847 - - -3759 - - -9679 - - -20708 ODpotential blCL 15114 - - 10935 - - 15626 - - 20287 - - 22853 blCL maxRH 50 - - 69 - - 51 - - 39 - - 25 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 100 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 80.2 - - 89.4 - - 95.0 - - 94.1 - - 83.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 42.7 - - 53.9 - - 46.0 - - 35.0 - - 27.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 79.6 - - 86.6 - - 92.3 - - 92.9 - - 85.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 42.6 - - 53.8 - - 45.9 - - 34.9 - - 27.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 49 - - 405 - - 438 - - 117 - - -28 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 311 - - 6988 - - 9767 - - 8508 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 9 - - 6 - - 5 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98270 22 104 21 100 18 130 11 138 7 123 98270 90851 18 096 12 101 8 128 9 110 13 069 90851 85138 12 086 11 113 12 124 8 103 13 075 85138 80433 18 095 18 109 15 118 9 091 14 075 80433 76385 23 091 20 101 19 110 10 101 14 077 76385 72815 17 082 18 093 23 090 16 098 13 083 72815 69588 12 071 14 069 16 066 17 083 18 077 69588 66628 13 089 7 068 11 065 14 074 16 068 66628 63897 10 031 10 054 9 067 9 060 12 048 63897 61278 11 041 4 346 6 011 9 053 9 020 61278 58566 6 294 8 309 13 309 11 337 9 013 58566 55752 25 264 18 261 20 281 21 286 19 301 55752 53081 35 265 29 263 29 269 29 281 28 276 53081 50696 43 272 39 268 36 270 38 281 36 277 50696 48558 54 269 53 269 50 273 52 280 48 280 48558 46603 61 265 61 265 60 270 57 274 51 275 46603 44793 63 262 62 265 61 269 58 273 52 272 44793 43103 64 261 63 265 60 268 57 272 52 271 43103 41518 64 262 62 265 56 269 55 271 52 273 41518 40025 65 263 61 265 52 273 52 272 50 276 40025 38619 65 263 58 267 51 275 47 276 47 279 38619 37264 64 264 55 268 49 274 44 279 42 282 37264 35893 61 264 53 273 48 281 41 282 37 282 35893 34479 57 267 56 281 46 289 39 287 33 284 34479 33021 57 271 57 286 47 292 39 292 32 289 33021 31503 59 271 58 285 50 291 40 294 34 293 31503 29913 60 270 59 283 53 290 42 294 36 297 29913 28250 61 269 59 281 55 288 42 294 38 303 28250 26515 60 271 55 282 55 286 43 295 38 305 26515 24711 59 265 54 271 51 290 43 295 38 298 24711 22838 58 261 55 267 44 291 41 297 37 295 22838 20889 53 258 49 260 39 281 33 302 31 309 20889 18865 44 256 43 257 35 277 26 286 21 297 18865 16812 37 248 36 251 30 259 23 268 22 277 16812 14843 32 241 33 240 27 241 22 245 21 262 14843 13059 28 236 32 232 24*230 19 226 20 243 13059 11473 25 231 28 226 18*226 15*225 18 227 11473 10059 22 227 23*223 18 227 15*230 15 210 10059 8795 19 222 17*220 17 229 15 233 12 209 8795 7666 18 217 14 218 17 235 15 243 11 221 7666 6660 18 211 12 220 17 238 16 248 11 237 6660 5768 18 208 10 223 17 241 16 251 12 252 5768 4977 17 205 9 224 17 244 16 253 14 262 4977 4265 15 201 9 227 17 246 16 255 16 266 4265 3632 10 195 8 229 16 248 16 256 19 267 3632 3103 6 176 7 231 16 250 16 258 20 266 3103 2695 4 146 7 233 16 250 16 258 20 266 2695 2414 3*128 7 233 15 251 15 259 17 266 2414 2243 3*132 6 234 14 251 14 259 13*265 2243 2145 2 132 6 234 13 252 12 259 7*263 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography