DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 05/01 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 67.7 - - 78.4 - - 84.4 - - 84.7 - - 75.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 118 - - 466 - - 483 - - 167 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 875 - - 5827 - - 8541 - - 10371 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 6370 - - 8580 - - 9360 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2975 - - 7927 - - 10641 - - 12471 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1512 - - 1676 - - 3538 - - 2027 - - 6027 Hgt.Variab. W* 192 - - 570 - - 656 - - 492 - - 0 W* B/S 5 - - 15 - - 20 - - 10 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 7 - - 6 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 271 - - 317 - - 299 - - 294 - - 318 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 1 - - -1 - - -3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4487 - - -2782 - - -2392 - - -1493 - - -9983 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7462 - - 10710 - - 13034 - - 13965 - - 12128 sfcLCL ODpotential -8480 - - -4776 - - -3494 - - -3962 - - -13899 ODpotential blCL 11455 - - 12703 - - 14135 - - 16433 - - 16044 blCL maxRH 59 - - 48 - - 45 - - 56 - - 72 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 67.7 - - 78.4 - - 84.4 - - 84.7 - - 75.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 42.5 - - 38.5 - - 33.9 - - 30.1 - - 30.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 66.6 - - 75.6 - - 81.6 - - 83.2 - - 78.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 42.4 - - 38.5 - - 33.8 - - 30.0 - - 30.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 118 - - 466 - - 483 - - 167 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 875 - - 5827 - - 8541 - - 10371 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97550 23 241 18 201 29 241 30 254 20 275 97550 90076 11 263 14 240 18 220 22 239 21 251 90076 84373 3 299 7 241 6 240 7 257 15 241 84373 79690 7 326 5 266 7 300 7 354 1 336 79690 75689 9 311 10 311 7 288 9 310 9 332 75689 72167 8 317 10 279 8 298 12 283 8 289 72167 68974 10 317 14 301 14 297 14 307 14 307 68974 66025 10 309 16 283 16 279 19 291 21 303 66025 63294 20 290 15 276 20 275 25 273 29 279 63294 60660 26 272 20 285 26 272 29 269 29 276 60660 57902 34 277 36 280 33 277 28 279 32 282 57902 55024 42 271 39 275 39 287 37 287 37 284 55024 52275 40 280 43 280 47 284 44 287 45 287 52275 49805 47 287 48 284 52 280 55 285 58 288 49805 47590 55 285 54 284 54 280 63 285 67 289 47590 45584 60 284 56 286 57 283 64 288 72 287 45584 43754 62 287 57 290 57 286 62 286 70 287 43754 42080 66 292 64 293 59 290 59 285 67 288 42080 40533 71 296 71 292 62 291 58 287 63 288 40533 39089 74 299 75 291 65 289 58 288 60 289 39089 37733 74 301 75 293 65 288 59 288 59 289 37733 36423 72 301 74 296 65 288 60 290 58 289 36423 35094 66 301 71 299 63 292 60 292 58 290 35094 33718 61 302 66 302 62 297 59 293 57 291 33718 32296 58 302 62 301 61 301 58 296 57 291 32296 30815 51 303 58 299 59 304 56 298 55 291 30815 29263 46 304 55 303 57 308 54 298 53 292 29263 27640 43 305 54 309 55 310 52 298 51 295 27640 25946 44 309 52 310 51 309 48 300 49 298 25946 24186 43 313 51 308 49 306 45 305 45 298 24186 22362 36 309 48 310 48 307 41 308 42 300 22362 20468 34 310 40 308 43 313 36 313 38 306 20468 18503 30 321 32 312 32 315 28 321 29 313 18503 16513 20 319 24 319 17 312 15 317 17 318 16513 14602 5 312 10 310 13 303 11 277 10 294 14602 12866 7 006 5 002 5 296 9*277 4 267 12866 11319 12 352 5 039 5*293 9*283 4 276 11319 9935 11 342 4 051 6*292 9 286 6 290 9935 8695 11 325 3*348 6 293 9 288 8 301 8695 7586 10 312 7*314 6 294 9 291 10 309 7586 6597 6 319 7 314 6 296 9 294 12 314 6597 5720 4 346 7 314 6 299 9 298 14 318 5720 4940 5 331 7 316 6 300 9 299 15 321 4940 4238 8 287 7 316 6 303 8 302 16 324 4238 3614 10 267 7 318 6 306 8 303 17 326 3614 3091 9*267 7 319 6 307 8 304 17 327 3091 2688 7*270 7 320 6 309 8 306 15 327 2688 2410 7 272 7 321 6 310 8 306 13 326 2410 2241 6 272 6 322 6 310 7 306 9*322 2241 2145 5 272 6 322 5 310 7 307 5*318 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography