DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 07/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 78.3 - - 83.8 - - 92.0 - - 95.0 - - 79.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 25 - - 139 - - 329 - - 114 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1100 - - 3070 - - 6018 - - 7268 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 3824 - - 6387 - - 6704 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 3200 - - 5170 - - 8118 - - 9368 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1719 - - 2625 - - 2894 - - 5958 - - 1067 Hgt.Variab. W* 146 - - 329 - - 518 - - 392 - - 30 W* B/S 6 - - 17 - - 17 - - 8 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 166 - - 192 - - 255 - - 273 - - 115 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 4 - - -3 - - 9 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -538 - - 233 - - 63 - - -850 - - -559 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3738 - - 4937 - - 8056 - - 10218 - - 2705 sfcLCL ODpotential -3295 - - -1769 - - -824 - - -2051 - - -3978 ODpotential blCL 6495 - - 6939 - - 8942 - - 11419 - - 6124 blCL maxRH 77 - - 80 - - 83 - - 92 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 1520 - - 2200 - - 1870 - - 900 - - 3630 CAPE Temp@2m 78.3 - - 83.8 - - 92.0 - - 95.0 - - 79.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 68.6 - - 68.9 - - 63.7 - - 57.3 - - 74.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 77.8 - - 82.5 - - 89.7 - - 93.8 - - 80.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 67.4 - - 67.7 - - 63.3 - - 56.8 - - 73.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 25 - - 139 - - 329 - - 114 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1100 - - 3070 - - 6018 - - 7268 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 9 - - 22 - - 33 - - 67 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 15 - - 15 - - 13 - - 10 - - 19 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98732 42 096 38 107 37 121 26 119 32 092 98732 91275 30 104 37 115 34 115 26 110 30 081 91275 85538 29 098 30 108 32 107 31 108 26 091 85538 80784 28 099 24 097 30 102 32 095 26 102 80784 76698 27 101 24 101 27 102 28 088 27 092 76698 73094 26 094 22 101 25 105 21 098 24 087 73094 69847 21 091 20 102 20 095 21 106 18 099 69847 66885 17 096 19 112 14 094 19 102 17 113 66885 64146 13 102 17 115 16 124 12 102 13 116 64146 61507 14 116 13 112 17 135 5 131 6 143 61507 58783 11 136 8 167 9 150 6 125 10 136 58783 55974 13 159 17 187 14 201 9 201 7 162 55974 53304 11 188 17 194 17 197 18 200 16 196 53304 50909 15 194 20 190 23 195 20 204 18 206 50909 48753 10 220 18 190 23 204 21 209 16 229 48753 46781 28 247 19 217 25 216 23 231 23 242 46781 44956 43 231 28 221 33 221 32 233 30 241 44956 43256 49 219 36 221 37 219 39 230 36 237 43256 41663 49 216 37 222 39 222 45 228 42 233 41663 40163 50 219 39 226 42 227 47 228 46 232 40163 38749 52 220 41 226 45 230 48 229 47 233 38749 37384 55 218 44 226 45 230 49 231 47 234 37384 36003 52 217 45 225 41 230 45 230 41 231 36003 34577 45 213 43 223 37 235 35 232 29 236 34577 33108 39 208 41 221 36 239 34 245 26 251 33108 31583 36 207 39 220 34 237 31 251 25 252 31583 29987 35 209 38 218 31 233 23 258 20 253 29987 28321 34 212 35 215 27 238 20 272 17 254 28321 26585 31 221 32 215 27 239 22 288 15 271 26585 24781 27 231 30 219 28 233 19 296 15 277 24781 22913 22 235 27 223 25 230 16 289 17 292 22913 20973 15 233 24 224 21 229 16 261 20 320 20973 18955 15 221 22 217 19 228 16 252 12 293 18955 16908 11 222 15 218 17 236 14 234 11 244 16908 14942 6 326 6 240 10 238 12 238 8 253 14942 13155 10 327 7 275 8 220 11 245 9 299 13155 11561 8 330 7 271 8 219 10 254 10 289 11561 10137 3 296 9 240 7 225 10*261 13 278 10137 8862 3 222 7 209 6*234 9*266 17 270 8862 7722 3 208 6 184 6*242 9 267 20 263 7722 6707 5 221 7 185 6 248 9 270 22 259 6707 5805 9 223 6*189 6 251 9 273 22 257 5805 5005 12 217 5*191 6 255 8 275 20 256 5005 4284 12 212 4 192 6 258 8 276 17 255 4284 3645 8*203 4 192 6 261 8 278 12 247 3645 3110 5*176 3 192 5 263 8 279 5 203 3110 2699 4 165 3 190 5 266 7 279 7 131 2699 2416 4 162 2 190 5 266 7 281 8 116 2416 2244 4 161 2 191 5 266 7 280 7*115 2244 2146 4 159 2 190 5 266 6 281 5*115 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography