DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 58.8 - - 78.2 - - 83.1 - - 79.2 - - 69.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -9 - - 167 - - 182 - - -16 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3429 - - 6560 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 4079 - - 6470 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5529 - - 8660 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 143 - - 2342 - - 2731 - - 9167 - - 2207 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 340 - - 434 - - 9 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 7 - - 9 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 182 - - 204 - - 226 - - 236 - - 241 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -3 - - 10 - - -5 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3535 - - -6395 - - -4061 - - -8136 - - -5359 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5678 - - 11925 - - 12721 - - 10281 - - 7503 sfcLCL ODpotential -11905 - - -12389 - - -7872 - - -9792 - - -9137 ODpotential blCL 14048 - - 17918 - - 16532 - - 11937 - - 11281 blCL maxRH 49 - - 76 - - 66 - - 100 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 60 CAPE Temp@2m 58.8 - - 78.2 - - 83.1 - - 79.2 - - 69.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 41.9 - - 33.3 - - 34.3 - - 41.5 - - 44.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 60.0 - - 76.8 - - 81.5 - - 79.8 - - 71.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 41.8 - - 33.2 - - 34.3 - - 41.5 - - 44.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -9 - - 167 - - 182 - - -16 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3429 - - 6560 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 2 - - 0 - - 101 - - 77 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96679 48 266 48 274 50 256 64 277 55 281 96679 89520 36 269 42 266 34 276 42 263 47 282 89520 84000 26 273 30 261 35 290 18 262 31 272 84000 79403 20 282 17 265 28 281 15 285 18 296 79403 75434 8 275 8 264 17 271 14 278 11 302 75434 71934 2 022 3 158 11 253 14 279 7 329 71934 68784 4 333 2 250 8 236 12 270 9 316 68784 65903 3 106 5 229 10 227 15 240 10 260 65903 63258 6 258 4 238 6 204 13 223 13 196 63258 60708 15 248 14 238 9 223 13 242 20 217 60708 58054 22 229 26 223 19 239 22 244 31 225 58054 55275 29 218 28 223 25 225 35 228 29 223 55275 52570 32 222 32 215 36 223 34 220 39 239 52570 50108 37 224 41 218 35 222 46 232 51 239 50108 47899 45 222 48 226 52 233 59 233 57 233 47899 45903 51 214 64 223 67 224 60 224 53 222 45903 44082 50 204 67 212 66 216 53 212 43 216 44082 42405 47 198 57 201 61 214 44 212 44 240 42405 40855 45 198 52 202 54 213 52 251 59 248 40855 39405 45 202 50 202 46 220 65 252 63 243 39405 38035 44 210 51 200 43 225 55 244 57 237 38035 36708 43 216 54 203 43 225 42 239 52 234 36708 35362 43 214 57 210 44 222 41 237 50 234 35362 33966 40 208 53 214 48 223 40 235 49 235 33966 32523 40 203 49 207 51 218 36 229 50 236 32523 31020 40 202 48 199 49 214 35 222 51 236 31020 29444 38 196 48 198 43 220 35 218 53 236 29444 27798 35 197 46 200 42 225 36 222 52 236 27798 26082 34 206 44 203 46 222 38 229 48 230 26082 24301 30 211 40 205 45 216 41 233 43 222 24301 22456 26 209 38 205 44 214 44 235 40 223 22456 20546 26 202 38 203 43 217 44 230 39 230 20546 18567 25 196 34 201 39 218 41 225 38 229 18567 16561 21 196 24 205 33 216 34 221 34 224 16561 14634 14 204 19 217 27 214 27 215 27 218 14634 12881 10 210 17 216 22 215 21 208 24 211 12881 11316 8 203 14 213 20 216 17 202 23 211 11316 9920 10 195 11 215 17 213 15 202 23 211 9920 8673 12 183 11 211 14*214 15 209 22 206 8673 7560 10 179 10 198 13*215 16 217 22 201 7560 6570 9 188 8 196 12 218 17 223 22 202 6570 5694 8 195 8*206 10 224 17 226 22 207 5694 4917 7 197 8*208 9 227 18 229 23 213 4917 4219 7 196 8 206 8 230 18 232 23 218 4219 3600 7 197 8 204 7 234 18 233 22 224 3600 3082 9 198 7 203 7 237 18 234 18 228 3082 2683 11 193 7 202 6 240 17 235 15 231 2683 2407 10 184 6 201 6 241 15 236 11 236 2407 2240 7 176 6 200 6 242 13*236 8 240 2240 2144 4*182 5 201 5 242 9*236 4*241 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography