DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 11/04 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 57.0 - - 68.2 - - 73.8 - - 69.4 - - 60.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 74 - - 160 - - -10 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1388 - - 3316 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2128 - - 3996 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 3488 - - 5416 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 199 - - 1532 - - 1350 - - 4205 - - 598 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 205 - - 336 - - 16 - - 4 W* B/S 1 - - 6 - - 7 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 6 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 285 - - 285 - - 291 - - 351 - - 151 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 2 - - 10 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -863 - - -2463 - - -2860 - - -4614 - - -838 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3007 - - 5951 - - 8276 - - 6758 - - 2982 sfcLCL ODpotential -10397 - - -10898 - - -10483 - - -12223 - - -6773 ODpotential blCL 12541 - - 14386 - - 15899 - - 14367 - - 8917 blCL maxRH 66 - - 53 - - 47 - - 48 - - 69 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 57.0 - - 68.2 - - 73.8 - - 69.4 - - 60.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 51.1 - - 49.5 - - 44.9 - - 47.2 - - 54.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.7 - - 67.4 - - 72.5 - - 70.0 - - 63.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 49.9 - - 48.2 - - 44.2 - - 46.7 - - 54.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 74 - - 160 - - -10 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1388 - - 3316 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 7 - - 6 - - 7 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97052 70 272 77 276 67 274 68 269 72 270 97052 89817 46 277 47 276 47 278 43 278 46 283 89817 84247 29 281 24 293 25 284 25 290 30 290 84247 79634 16 291 8 295 12 285 18 304 21 296 79634 75679 6 334 6 255 10 279 14 318 15 309 75679 72188 7 002 6 224 5 277 7 300 10 340 72188 69001 8 314 8 277 9 316 9 306 13 329 69001 66058 17 297 11 276 13 280 12 296 13 299 66058 63333 18 290 15 299 16 266 14 262 18 288 63333 60703 20 296 19 292 20 283 23 272 27 284 60703 57991 23 292 26 275 29 284 27 280 26 281 57991 55196 36 289 38 286 37 287 34 293 28 297 55196 52527 48 285 55 289 48 286 42 287 37 287 52527 50121 73 287 72 287 62 287 54 286 49 284 50121 47963 98 281 97 276 82 282 74 280 67 280 47963 45999 97 270 101 267 90 272 84 272 81 277 45999 44185 92 270 93 268 88 267 82 271 85 275 44185 42497 92 276 89 274 85 274 81 273 86 277 42497 40920 98 277 93 277 84 277 83 275 86 278 40920 39441 99 273 94 276 86 277 86 275 87 278 39441 38052 93 268 91 274 86 277 85 275 85 276 38052 36715 88 267 88 273 83 277 80 275 82 276 36715 35361 85 269 86 273 79 277 75 277 77 276 35361 33959 84 272 82 275 75 275 72 275 72 277 33959 32515 82 275 78 276 71 274 70 272 67 275 32515 31017 78 275 71 276 66 277 68 272 65 275 31017 29454 73 271 62 273 59 278 61 277 65 276 29454 27824 66 272 54 271 52 276 52 280 66 280 27824 26123 53 273 49 278 47 278 51 283 60 285 26123 24352 49 277 45 277 46 275 49 281 51 286 24352 22514 49 283 41 276 42 273 48 280 47 290 22514 20602 45 286 39 277 40 273 45 282 44 290 20602 18611 40 287 37 278 37 275 42 283 40 285 18611 16581 35 279 37 276 34 282 37 284 36 282 16581 14625 34 269 36 273 31 282 32 284 30 288 14625 12846 32 262 34 268 29 274 27 286 25 292 12846 11266 27 259 32 265 30 267 24 286 21 297 11266 9865 23 266 28 265 27 266 20 282 15 304 9865 8619 18 269 20 266 21 265 17 273 10 314 8619 7511 14 260 14 257 17 258 14 263 9 288 7511 6527 14 251 12 247 14 257 12 268 9 275 6527 5659 12 252 12 249 10*268 11 284 9 288 5659 4890 10 255 11 254 9*276 10 294 8 302 4890 4199 8 252 10 262 9 285 9 306 7 330 4199 3585 7 250 8*272 8 291 8 320 7 359 3585 3072 6 252 7*281 8 295 8 335 7 023 3072 2677 5 258 6 284 8 300 8 342 7 049 2677 2404 4 262 6 287 8 303 7 347 6 068 2404 2239 3*276 5 288 7 303 7*350 3*088 2239 2144 3*285 5 290 7 304 5*351 1*151 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography