DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 68.8 - - 76.8 - - 71.5 - - 61.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 96 - - 134 - - -5 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 728 - - 2139 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2127 - - 3041 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2828 - - 4239 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 865 - - 1341 - - 2601 - - 249 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 169 - - 270 - - 3 - - 3 W* B/S - - - 50 - - 22 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 BL Wind Direction - - - 256 - - 311 - - 343 - - 344 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -1 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -8062 - - -8603 - - -9826 - - -7514 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10891 - - 12843 - - 11971 - - 9659 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -17013 - - -15786 - - -17657 - - -17565 ODpotential blCL - - - 19841 - - 20025 - - 19801 - - 19709 blCL maxRH - - - 25 - - 78 - - 39 - - 36 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 68.8 - - 76.8 - - 71.5 - - 61.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 29.2 - - 28.2 - - 27.2 - - 27.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 67.9 - - 75.6 - - 74.6 - - 66.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 29.1 - - 28.0 - - 26.7 - - 27.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 96 - - 134 - - -5 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 728 - - 2139 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96294 18 198 27 234 27 260 25 298 96294 89257 9 293 8 281 8 274 15 271 89257 83800 15 306 14 319 7 354 7 228 83800 79219 19 315 18 304 23 315 14 000 79219 75239 15 315 10 301 25 306 22 330 75239 71730 15 278 12 317 17 316 24 325 71730 68595 15 284 15 316 11 323 25 312 68595 65738 18 317 21 328 10 320 18 292 65738 63080 25 334 27 327 20 322 28 312 63080 60514 28 327 37 319 31 312 33 311 60514 57866 43 318 39 314 37 315 34 313 57866 55112 53 305 43 318 44 318 42 324 55112 52457 50 304 47 318 45 324 45 325 52457 50041 49 309 48 321 50 330 48 326 50041 47864 54 317 54 323 57 327 54 329 47864 45892 59 321 57 322 61 326 54 330 45892 44094 54 325 53 319 62 323 46 330 44094 42443 50 331 42 313 59 320 42 328 42443 40912 47 340 36 311 53 316 42 327 40912 39476 45 338 36 313 49 309 42 329 39476 38118 41 328 35 317 45 306 40 329 38118 36802 41 325 37 321 42 308 39 329 36802 35464 43 318 40 325 39 310 39 329 35464 34078 46 307 43 328 36 313 38 333 34078 32646 47 300 44 329 35 318 36 337 32646 31154 45 301 43 320 35 322 35 342 31154 29591 43 306 48 305 37 326 36 345 29591 27957 38 308 44 298 37 329 37 346 27957 26253 30 306 36 292 36 331 38 347 26253 24478 27 299 34 293 33 332 37 348 24478 22638 25 300 32 305 31 333 34 349 22638 20723 25 312 27 314 28 336 31 350 20723 18730 24 311 24 310 26 341 27 354 18730 16695 24 313 21 302 23 344 26 001 16695 14731 23 325 21 314 21 342 25 007 14731 12942 23 334 23 331 21 342 23 008 12942 11351 22 339 24 341 21 345 21 005 11351 9936 23 343 24 351 21 353 21 003 9936 8676 22 352 22 001 19 004 21 009 8676 7554 18 003 19 009 16 013 19 017 7554 6558 12 017 12 017 11 021 14 020 6558 5679 8 032 6 034 5 030 7 003 5679 4902 6 040 1*077 1 321 6 329 4902 4206 6 043 1*302 2 288 7 326 4206 3589 4 037 2 307 3 318 6 339 3589 3073 1*021 2 309 4 331 7 001 3073 2677 1*253 2 311 4 338 9 015 2677 2404 1 258 3 316 5 341 8 023 2404 2238 1 260 3 316 5 343 4*028 2238 2144 0 250 2 318 4*343 1*344 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography