DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/24 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0703z - - 1003z - - 1556z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 60.1 - - 73.0 - - 76.2 - - 74.1 - - 65.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 12 - - 261 - - 251 - - 3 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 4754 - - 7906 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 5289 - - 7724 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 6854 - - 10006 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 395 - - 2590 - - 3311 - - 9601 - - 246 Hgt.Variab. W* 34 - - 441 - - 516 - - 24 - - 0 W* B/S 2 - - 15 - - 11 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 5 - - 9 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 209 - - 203 - - 236 - - 282 - - 267 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -3 - - 8 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3797 - - -2032 - - -219 - - -7523 - - -5652 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5940 - - 8886 - - 10226 - - 9668 - - 7796 sfcLCL ODpotential -7797 - - -3806 - - -621 - - -8515 - - -8462 ODpotential blCL 9940 - - 10660 - - 10627 - - 10659 - - 10606 blCL maxRH 70 - - 59 - - 88 - - 90 - - 89 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 50 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 60.1 - - 73.0 - - 76.2 - - 74.1 - - 65.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 41.7 - - 41.3 - - 38.5 - - 39.1 - - 38.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.9 - - 71.1 - - 74.4 - - 74.0 - - 68.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 41.6 - - 41.0 - - 38.2 - - 38.8 - - 38.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 12 - - 261 - - 251 - - 3 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 4754 - - 7906 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 54 - - 59 - - 56 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97566 15 235 21 247 27 220 32 261 24 265 97566 90173 11 279 10 275 12 245 15 251 17 258 90173 84560 9 286 9 258 12 298 4 233 10 240 84560 79931 6 258 10 253 12 296 5 322 6 275 79931 75934 4 300 4 260 7 314 5 338 8 293 75934 72409 6 324 3 298 9 317 7 312 9 316 72409 69221 3 020 2 073 5 340 5 329 10 340 69221 66293 8 357 4 001 5 300 4 286 8 297 66293 63589 11 287 9 313 1 259 4 163 7 205 63589 60964 15 240 17 240 15 263 11 250 6 228 60964 58209 14 239 19 208 23 228 22 233 16 237 58209 55344 22 260 19 238 21 212 26 222 23 230 55344 52614 35 255 29 261 21 228 27 223 30 228 52614 50155 38 244 33 255 24 240 25 228 30 229 50155 47939 37 237 36 243 31 237 27 235 27 232 47939 45906 38 241 34 240 34 227 32 236 27 241 45906 44028 41 241 34 236 34 222 34 232 30 246 44028 42287 42 236 36 229 33 221 35 228 37 241 42287 40673 42 234 39 225 34 222 39 229 45 233 40673 39168 42 240 42 226 39 225 45 228 47 233 39168 37758 49 247 48 232 44 227 49 229 49 237 37758 36409 57 245 53 232 48 228 50 229 50 236 36409 35048 61 238 55 234 50 229 52 234 50 233 35048 33640 61 233 60 234 54 230 54 232 47 229 33640 32186 63 233 65 230 61 231 50 232 44 232 32186 30676 68 231 67 226 67 229 53 238 49 231 30676 29103 66 231 66 226 70 224 61 236 58 229 29103 27467 62 236 65 230 70 221 64 230 60 226 27467 25774 63 237 62 230 72 221 55 232 52 231 25774 24030 58 232 63 225 70 222 48 233 42 236 24030 22232 52 218 63 222 63 221 43 232 34 244 22232 20364 48 211 57 221 57 220 35 234 26 251 20364 18415 42 217 48 219 52 222 27 244 21 248 18415 16423 32 217 41 214 44 217 23 255 24 231 16423 14502 26 217 35 214 35 209 23 244 20 218 14502 12761 21 213 25 215 24 204 20 218 17 203 12761 11219 15 208 17 209 19*203 15 199 17 186 11219 9844 13 205 15 207 14*209 13 204 13 187 9844 8615 11 203 12 201 13 212 10 220 9 213 8615 7517 9 200 9*198 10 226 9 236 7 250 7517 6539 8 193 7*201 9 238 9 260 8 277 6539 5672 7 181 6 201 8 246 9 266 9 284 5672 4902 4 154 6 202 8 253 9 271 10 285 4902 4209 3 102 5 203 8 258 9 275 10 285 4209 3593 3 044 5 205 7 263 9 277 11 283 3593 3077 1 012 4 204 7 265 9 279 11 283 3077 2680 2 255 4 204 7 268 9 280 10 282 2680 2405 5 230 4 206 7 269 9 280 8 280 2405 2239 4 210 4 205 7 270 8 281 5 274 2239 2144 3*209 3 204 6 271 7*282 3*267 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography