DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.2 - - 65.8 - - 73.7 - - 70.3 - - 60.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 114 - - 154 - - -9 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 911 - - 2783 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2127 - - 3573 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3011 - - 4883 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 131 - - 1277 - - 2049 - - 3918 - - 408 Hgt.Variab. W* 2 - - 193 - - 309 - - 11 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 44 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 5 - - 1 - - 7 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 155 - - 133 - - 313 - - 001 - - 306 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -1 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -390 - - -4075 - - -4908 - - -6700 - - -2841 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2533 - - 7086 - - 9791 - - 8844 - - 4985 sfcLCL ODpotential -10102 - - -10528 - - -9594 - - -12702 - - -9350 ODpotential blCL 12245 - - 13539 - - 14477 - - 14846 - - 11494 blCL maxRH 74 - - 90 - - 89 - - 95 - - 87 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 49.2 - - 65.8 - - 73.7 - - 70.3 - - 60.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.6 - - 42.5 - - 38.3 - - 39.1 - - 45.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.1 - - 64.8 - - 72.4 - - 70.6 - - 62.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 45.7 - - 42.1 - - 38.0 - - 39.0 - - 45.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 114 - - 154 - - -9 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 911 - - 2783 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 61 - - 56 - - 81 - - 50 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96071 11 300 19 256 19 272 17 262 25 261 96071 88937 6 331 6 202 12 276 4 327 8 300 88937 83503 3 353 3 293 9 267 10 298 11 302 83503 79003 1 346 9 327 2 280 7 254 14 291 79003 75126 10 301 8 313 6 303 6 242 16 301 75126 71669 10 287 9 320 6 286 7 264 16 279 71669 68533 13 278 16 287 12 285 13 296 16 264 68533 65663 16 286 22 266 21 281 21 297 17 266 65663 62998 20 275 28 251 28 259 28 270 27 267 62998 60409 23 272 27 251 33 256 30 257 35 266 60409 57716 30 267 33 252 40 262 39 259 45 261 57716 54925 38 262 35 250 51 250 44 250 50 249 54925 52237 41 259 42 251 49 245 39 254 49 249 52237 49792 50 262 50 253 51 252 58 260 60 250 49792 47594 55 255 56 250 63 253 69 255 69 247 47594 45605 51 251 59 249 64 247 68 251 69 251 45605 43813 49 256 59 250 60 250 73 259 89 260 43813 42185 60 280 59 256 70 260 95 259 108 261 42185 40666 59 284 62 257 89 258 107 258 103 253 40666 39230 50 278 61 254 92 259 95 255 110 258 39230 37867 50 271 62 252 77 263 76 253 115 262 37867 36546 51 260 61 250 63 259 71 254 103 265 36546 35206 54 255 59 250 53 252 65 250 81 264 35206 33818 52 255 54 252 49 254 58 242 65 258 33818 32387 51 257 47 253 49 252 59 236 60 246 32387 30897 51 256 45 254 48 248 60 237 57 238 30897 29334 51 252 47 256 48 243 59 238 58 230 29334 27700 50 247 46 247 51 234 57 236 57 232 27700 26000 45 240 45 242 46 231 56 236 53 233 26000 24234 35 232 41 246 41 237 52 240 50 230 24234 22404 28 228 34 237 38 241 48 242 46 231 22404 20507 21 229 29 229 33 238 43 244 38 234 20507 18532 17 217 21 225 28 227 35 239 30 229 18532 16519 14 196 17 216 22 213 27 230 27 219 16519 14580 12 182 14 201 19 199 23 220 24 212 14580 12818 11 190 13 193 17 193 21 204 24 208 12818 11252 8 196 12 190 16 195 21 191 24 202 11252 9857 7 188 12 182 15 198 19 184 21 198 9857 8616 6 193 12 179 14 202 17 186 15 195 8616 7511 4 194 12 173 13 208 13 190 9 207 7511 6529 3 166 11 165 11 209 7 188 4 248 6529 5660 4 124 11 156 8 202 2 144 3 305 5660 4889 6 103 11 148 3*206 3 048 5 328 4889 4197 6 081 9 142 1*257 6 020 7 341 4197 3582 5 084 7 139 1 293 9 008 9 352 3582 3069 6 128 6*138 1 316 10 005 12 344 3069 2674 9 137 6*136 2 328 11 002 13 333 2674 2403 7 139 5 133 2 336 10 002 12 326 2403 2238 5*143 5 131 2 337 9 001 8*315 2238 2144 3*155 4 130 2 335 7*001 4*306 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography