DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 01/27 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.9 - - 62.5 - - 69.5 - - 68.7 - - 56.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 163 - - 239 - - 4 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1297 - - 3466 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2532 - - 4267 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3397 - - 5566 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 170 - - 1526 - - 1305 - - 3780 - - 214 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 243 - - 383 - - 24 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 12 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 9 - - 6 - - 4 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 177 - - 145 - - 020 - - 026 - - 274 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - 4 - - 3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5376 - - -8465 - - -8813 - - -12067 - - -9760 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7519 - - 11862 - - 14379 - - 14212 - - 11903 sfcLCL ODpotential -17597 - - -16926 - - -17296 - - -20205 - - -20004 ODpotential blCL 19740 - - 20323 - - 22862 - - 22349 - - 22147 blCL maxRH 28 - - 29 - - 29 - - 18 - - 22 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.9 - - 62.5 - - 69.5 - - 68.7 - - 56.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 17.6 - - 18.4 - - 13.8 - - 14.0 - - 12.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.1 - - 61.3 - - 67.8 - - 68.6 - - 61.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 17.6 - - 18.2 - - 13.4 - - 13.7 - - 12.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 163 - - 239 - - 4 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1297 - - 3466 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96128 49 266 70 259 78 268 66 277 60 276 96128 88978 39 286 50 264 60 273 52 296 42 304 88978 83490 41 293 39 278 41 280 41 290 41 308 83490 78920 41 289 38 288 30 297 32 290 38 299 78920 74986 39 292 29 296 24 298 31 303 36 297 74986 71530 37 288 32 315 25 288 29 297 33 298 71530 68415 33 287 33 304 28 289 31 294 34 295 68415 65555 34 286 33 283 33 298 33 289 38 293 65555 62914 36 285 33 285 36 293 32 294 40 289 62914 60367 38 295 39 294 35 295 31 303 36 285 60367 57711 43 298 42 294 37 315 31 313 31 300 57711 54945 41 299 42 303 46 323 41 318 33 308 54945 52287 47 313 49 312 53 316 51 312 41 308 52287 49864 58 315 55 311 57 311 55 306 45 309 49864 47667 64 309 59 308 57 308 53 305 52 306 47667 45665 64 304 63 304 58 305 52 299 57 302 45665 43838 64 302 66 299 61 301 58 289 71 291 43838 42169 62 304 65 291 62 294 64 282 91 281 42169 40631 60 310 53 290 65 289 64 280 113 275 40631 39193 55 317 43 294 43 292 55 275 101 275 39193 37837 53 328 36 327 37 322 39 272 80 274 37837 36528 54 336 43 342 40 337 21 302 57 272 36528 35200 54 339 41 342 35 328 20 317 38 269 35200 33823 49 334 36 338 32 309 22 307 24 267 33823 32401 43 333 32 331 32 304 25 305 17 273 32401 30920 41 337 33 322 36 312 29 311 18 288 30920 29367 42 341 36 318 40 318 30 313 22 292 29367 27739 43 342 37 315 42 318 29 304 22 298 27739 26037 41 338 38 312 43 316 31 303 21 311 26037 24266 39 332 41 317 42 317 28 311 23 318 24266 22430 37 330 41 324 38 325 27 321 22 321 22430 20526 34 332 38 328 32 330 25 327 18 324 20526 18546 33 331 34 337 24 334 19 325 13 316 18546 16529 29 325 28 350 21 347 13 333 10 323 16529 14586 21 320 18 353 14 352 9 328 8 340 14586 12819 16 324 13 346 8 342 7 296 4 321 12819 11249 12 339 9 350 6 330 7 278 3 255 11249 9851 8 008 6 008 5 325 6 269 3 227 9851 8605 7 040 5 063 2 311 2 280 1 197 8605 7496 12 065 7 089 1 189 1 343 1 121 7496 6512 13 064 5 109 1 115 3 110 5 153 6512 5643 10 072 4 132 3*037 6 097 10 143 5643 4874 9 078 6 134 4*029 6 085 10 135 4874 4185 10 099 10 139 5 022 5 067 7 131 4185 3574 14 120 11*144 6 019 5 044 4 116 3574 3063 18 124 11*145 6 019 5 036 2 048 3063 2671 16 130 10 145 7 018 5 031 4 323 2671 2401 13 141 9 145 7 017 5 028 5 303 2401 2237 7*146 8 145 7 017 5*028 4 286 2237 2143 3*177 7 145 6 018 4*026 4*274 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography