DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/26 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 2149z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 59.2 - - 76.4 - - 81.8 - - 78.5 - - 66.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 3 - - 219 - - 222 - - -9 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2359 - - 5579 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3425 - - 5843 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4459 - - 7679 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 160 - - 3194 - - 1609 - - 6756 - - 263 Hgt.Variab. W* 21 - - 329 - - 441 - - 14 - - 3 W* B/S 2 - - 19 - - 68 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 3 - - 1 - - 6 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 197 - - 100 - - 113 - - 335 - - 022 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -6 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4159 - - -5691 - - -4696 - - -9119 - - -5778 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6302 - - 10151 - - 12376 - - 11264 - - 7923 sfcLCL ODpotential -13306 - - -11285 - - -9292 - - -13721 - - -12804 ODpotential blCL 15449 - - 15744 - - 16971 - - 15866 - - 14948 blCL maxRH 50 - - 37 - - 34 - - 34 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 59.2 - - 76.4 - - 81.8 - - 78.5 - - 66.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.6 - - 39.4 - - 34.8 - - 36.5 - - 40.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.2 - - 74.7 - - 80.1 - - 79.0 - - 71.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.5 - - 39.0 - - 34.4 - - 36.1 - - 40.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 3 - - 219 - - 222 - - -9 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2359 - - 5579 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97318 21 249 35 257 37 262 35 273 26 272 97318 89983 19 265 14 252 26 262 19 271 24 271 89983 84363 18 276 7 282 15 258 12 251 17 270 84363 79729 17 262 10 268 11 239 13 257 12 280 79729 75754 14 247 15 233 15 235 15 259 10 265 75754 72245 8 257 7 223 9 232 13 244 10 235 72245 69057 4 312 2 293 1 241 6 232 7 213 69057 66112 6 307 7 258 6 288 9 273 4 257 66112 63376 9 272 14 221 16 235 16 241 11 260 63376 60727 11 264 13 205 16 217 15 239 19 255 60727 57956 16 261 13 238 14 239 19 249 18 246 57956 55059 24 241 25 254 21 249 19 255 19 260 55059 52283 24 240 32 251 27 264 33 260 25 265 52283 49795 35 250 32 250 36 260 36 264 37 272 49795 47582 32 247 31 261 39 261 42 270 43 270 47582 45592 29 249 32 266 38 270 44 270 37 277 45592 43786 25 256 32 273 37 276 40 272 38 286 43786 42127 22 268 28 286 39 280 37 279 42 288 42127 40589 20 271 28 298 40 285 34 289 45 279 40589 39148 19 266 24 291 39 289 37 295 41 279 39148 37789 18 262 23 286 35 286 42 290 40 290 37789 36476 16 265 23 283 30 280 43 283 45 298 36476 35146 15 269 20 276 25 280 40 280 46 289 35146 33773 13 270 17 268 23 284 36 279 42 280 33773 32358 12 272 15 271 24 280 34 282 41 277 32358 30884 13 272 15 273 24 269 34 284 38 278 30884 29341 14 267 16 274 20 268 34 281 35 273 29341 27734 14 262 16 272 16 274 31 279 31 268 27734 26059 13 260 14 266 14 275 26 274 28 269 26059 24316 10 261 13 262 14 269 21 278 25 271 24316 22504 9 272 12 264 13 264 17 280 23 272 22504 20618 8 293 11 258 14 274 16 278 21 271 20618 18648 8 284 10 243 15 275 14 279 18 276 18648 16636 8 275 8 259 16 269 14 289 15 282 16636 14693 8 286 6 286 10 277 11 292 14 288 14693 12920 4 293 4 257 7 282 6 288 11 286 12920 11342 2 242 5 191 6 246 6 254 6 277 11342 9938 4 154 8 155 9 199 9 224 8 250 9938 8686 5 152 8 135 7*174 9 202 14 200 8686 7572 6 148 7 130 4*151 5 204 10 207 7572 6582 8 136 7 129 3 146 2 243 7 234 6582 5705 7 130 6 127 2 134 4 314 5 260 5705 4926 6 125 6*123 1 112 6 325 4 283 4926 4226 5 125 4*116 1 081 7 329 4 330 4226 3604 4 133 3 107 1 041 7 331 6 002 3604 3084 4 148 3 097 1 025 8 333 8 007 3084 2683 2 163 3 091 2 020 8 334 9 006 2683 2407 2 189 3 083 2 013 8 334 8 009 2407 2240 2 180 3 082 2 015 7*335 4 019 2240 2144 2*197 2 082 2 015 6*335 1*022 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography