DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/07 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 59.0 - - 71.3 - - 75.6 - - 72.8 - - 64.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 196 - - 200 - - -13 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2549 - - 5527 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3524 - - 5747 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4649 - - 7627 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 415 - - 2491 - - 2187 - - 7286 - - 1843 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 - - 327 - - 425 - - 15 - - 7 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 15 - - 11 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 205 - - 128 - - 110 - - 104 - - 135 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 6 - - -12 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2122 - - -2375 - - -322 - - -5320 - - -3167 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4265 - - 7024 - - 7949 - - 7465 - - 5311 sfcLCL ODpotential -6262 - - -4509 - - -1439 - - -6659 - - -6140 ODpotential blCL 8405 - - 9158 - - 9066 - - 8804 - - 8284 blCL maxRH 79 - - 65 - - 74 - - 71 - - 77 maxRH CAPE 110 - - 40 - - 20 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 59.0 - - 71.3 - - 75.6 - - 72.8 - - 64.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 47.8 - - 47.9 - - 48.1 - - 47.5 - - 48.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 60.1 - - 69.8 - - 74.1 - - 73.4 - - 66.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.4 - - 47.5 - - 47.7 - - 47.3 - - 48.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 196 - - 200 - - -13 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2549 - - 5527 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 15 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 9 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 7 - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96963 70 268 70 274 68 267 74 274 69 277 96963 89673 53 279 51 280 54 273 38 277 44 276 89673 84120 36 286 34 277 37 280 32 284 28 280 84120 79523 26 284 22 267 33 285 27 286 32 295 79523 75545 21 293 16 278 22 277 26 286 23 297 75545 72037 17 302 14 286 13 296 15 267 23 280 72037 68867 16 302 15 304 17 307 14 306 14 285 68867 65958 12 306 11 267 18 290 21 303 16 317 65958 63284 14 329 4 002 8 244 21 282 24 314 63284 60718 25 323 18 337 4 355 11 252 19 280 60718 58040 26 319 23 314 13 347 15 019 6 298 58040 55253 20 322 23 330 26 342 26 356 20 359 55253 52612 29 349 28 330 36 321 41 309 19 312 52612 50237 34 353 23 329 28 320 27 292 28 284 50237 48082 39 001 23 354 16 331 11 285 41 273 48082 46100 43 005 30 006 18 010 15 353 34 274 46100 44265 46 006 38 010 44 000 37 345 29 324 44265 42570 47 004 45 005 59 347 45 341 38 324 42570 40986 47 003 50 000 59 346 45 344 39 320 40986 39490 46 003 50 358 50 351 44 358 35 335 39490 38075 45 006 50 003 48 011 44 011 32 002 38075 36713 42 010 45 008 58 027 49 023 41 025 36713 35337 35 021 45 025 62 033 58 032 51 033 35337 33919 38 030 48 033 60 036 64 030 56 036 33919 32456 36 023 39 034 55 039 61 032 55 036 32456 30937 23 027 40 053 51 046 54 036 55 031 30937 29354 23 049 44 056 48 051 52 043 56 030 29354 27708 25 049 42 057 45 049 45 046 53 038 27708 26002 22 050 32 060 40 052 36 046 48 047 26002 24235 18 062 25 074 39 057 34 049 38 048 24235 22409 18 064 26 080 36 062 35 053 29 047 22409 20509 19 061 29 075 27 059 34 059 28 048 20509 18529 18 064 29 072 22 057 28 057 30 049 18529 16512 17 072 26 073 21 067 24 057 33 051 16512 14571 15 073 19 078 21 069 21 059 29 049 14571 12811 16 069 15 079 21 058 19 060 22 044 12811 11249 17 068 14 077 20 058 17 066 21 058 11249 9862 18 068 15 074 14 068 14 071 19 068 9862 8626 17 065 14 077 11*088 12 073 15 067 8626 7522 15 066 13 094 11*103 12 080 13 073 7522 6540 13 080 15 110 11 107 12 089 13 090 6540 5670 15 101 19 119 11 109 12 094 16 105 5670 4898 20 116 19*123 11 110 12 097 19 114 4898 4205 23 121 17*126 11 111 13 100 21 118 4205 3590 22 123 16 128 11 112 13 102 21 120 3590 3075 18 125 15 129 11 112 13 103 18 122 3075 2679 13 130 15 129 11 112 12 104 15 125 2679 2406 9 138 14 129 11 112 11 104 12 127 2406 2239 5 141 13 130 10 112 10*104 9 129 2239 2144 1*205 11 130 9 112 8*104 5*135 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography