DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 02/05 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1853z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 72.5 - - 78.3 - - 78.3 - - 67.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 178 - - 189 - - -4 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1685 - - 4360 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2861 - - 4826 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3785 - - 6460 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 997 - - 5210 - - 11510 - - 775 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 274 - - 383 - - 10 - - 3 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 24 - - 15 - - 4 - - 1 BL Wind Direction - - - 136 - - 145 - - 133 - - 212 Direction Wind Shear - - - 10 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - -3 - - -1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -9202 - - -8378 - - -12582 - - -9058 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12988 - - 14839 - - 14726 - - 11203 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -14689 - - -12118 - - -16014 - - -13662 ODpotential blCL - - - 18474 - - 18578 - - 18158 - - 15806 blCL maxRH - - - 83 - - 87 - - 87 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 72.5 - - 78.3 - - 78.3 - - 67.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 23.2 - - 20.0 - - 20.6 - - 26.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 71.3 - - 76.9 - - 78.7 - - 72.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 23.0 - - 19.7 - - 20.2 - - 26.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 178 - - 189 - - -4 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1685 - - 4360 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 32 - - 47 - - 47 - - 38 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96253 15 243 21 247 27 258 22 292 96253 89099 10 302 17 289 12 263 11 261 89099 83628 3 303 13 298 9 298 8 350 83628 79066 1 086 7 346 2 351 9 331 79066 75126 4 324 4 355 8 071 1 329 75126 71672 4 336 3 035 12 050 5 105 71672 68561 6 018 5 032 13 040 8 080 68561 65697 5 071 6 047 4 045 3 072 65697 63031 5 089 5 042 3 173 2 181 63031 60447 3 105 4 189 9 216 8 201 60447 57753 2 186 8 215 11 225 15 220 57753 54955 7 241 16 229 15 228 19 233 54955 52267 16 231 16 222 17 232 25 243 52267 49825 17 229 15 218 22 221 29 232 49825 47621 23 228 22 208 26 211 32 240 47621 45610 22 212 23 191 29 208 42 249 45610 43759 22 190 26 191 34 212 51 247 43759 42046 30 160 38 185 36 208 52 241 42046 40454 39 139 39 173 38 204 47 228 40454 38974 44 128 38 161 42 192 48 216 38974 37594 44 132 40 160 43 180 50 206 37594 36275 42 133 42 153 43 163 48 198 36275 34945 42 134 47 143 47 150 45 195 34945 33571 42 139 48 146 55 141 43 200 33571 32153 42 145 49 148 58 143 44 207 32153 30676 42 148 50 149 57 151 42 211 30676 29130 42 149 49 151 53 157 36 201 29130 27516 43 146 48 153 47 160 40 172 27516 25836 43 144 46 156 37 160 45 166 25836 24094 42 142 41 158 28 157 41 171 24094 22293 39 141 34 156 25 166 32 163 22293 20423 35 147 30 146 29 183 30 156 20423 18473 29 150 29 140 30 186 29 173 18473 16486 22 155 25 141 28 168 29 197 16486 14571 16 163 18 144 22 154 27 200 14571 12829 11 165 10 154 14 160 23 188 12829 11276 8 167 6 186 11 180 16 168 11276 9892 6 175 7 207 10 186 10 148 9892 8656 9 190 11 210 9 190 8 142 8656 7550 13 193 12 196 9 189 6 143 7550 6565 15 183 13*172 8 186 4 156 6565 5692 17 161 15*159 7 176 3 179 5692 4916 23 143 16 148 6 165 4 199 4916 4218 27*135 16 144 6 156 5 207 4218 3599 26*135 16 142 6 148 5 210 3599 3081 25 136 16 142 6 143 4 212 3081 2682 25 137 15 140 5 138 4 218 2682 2407 23 137 15 140 5 136 2 230 2407 2239 21 137 14 139 5 133 1*234 2239 2144 16 138 12 139 4*133 1*212 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography