DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 01/08 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 53.9 - - 57.2 - - 54.5 - - 50.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 44 - - 80 - - -22 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1632 - - 3552 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2127 - - 3796 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3732 - - 5652 - - 2143 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3095 - - 2820 - - 6511 - - 3633 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 182 - - 284 - - 20 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 14 - - 25 - - 9 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 247 - - 254 - - 278 - - 289 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -7 - - -10 - - -3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 931 - - 1631 - - -1638 - - -263 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2801 - - 4021 - - 3781 - - 2406 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -132 - - 236 - - -2724 - - -1847 ODpotential blCL - - - 3864 - - 5416 - - 4867 - - 3990 blCL maxRH - - - 98 - - 85 - - 100 - - 92 maxRH CAPE - - - 270 - - 270 - - 330 - - 380 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 53.9 - - 57.2 - - 54.5 - - 50.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 49.0 - - 46.9 - - 45.3 - - 46.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 53.4 - - 56.7 - - 55.3 - - 50.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 48.0 - - 45.8 - - 44.8 - - 46.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 44 - - 80 - - -22 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1632 - - 3552 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 91 - - 39 - - 102 - - 69 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96581 35 263 32 271 25 263 27 277 96581 89261 23 269 27 269 20 283 17 280 89261 83728 12 287 19 250 20 282 13 320 83728 79152 10 299 10 247 13 264 18 302 79152 75201 13 291 13 246 11 307 16 269 75201 71707 15 292 19 228 20 298 9 294 71707 68509 19 284 14 222 21 235 23 261 68509 65557 22 244 17 258 25 228 29 251 65557 62827 30 232 27 263 23 245 24 244 62827 60164 39 244 35 262 19 265 16 232 60164 57349 52 239 49 259 31 278 27 278 57349 54409 50 246 62 253 53 266 46 271 54409 51617 49 254 67 250 63 258 50 261 51617 49105 58 266 63 260 57 260 45 262 49105 46838 72 267 68 268 59 270 50 272 46838 44774 83 266 81 267 70 271 61 275 44774 42889 91 265 91 265 80 267 73 271 42889 41161 98 264 98 263 87 264 82 265 41161 39559 103 265 104 263 91 264 82 265 39559 38064 111 265 108 263 93 267 87 269 38064 36672 115 263 109 264 99 270 91 270 36672 35343 115 262 106 266 103 270 91 271 35343 34010 111 263 101 269 102 270 92 271 34010 32643 104 265 96 273 100 270 92 271 32643 31244 94 268 91 277 97 271 87 273 31244 29799 87 274 94 281 93 277 84 275 29799 28296 92 279 98 279 93 278 82 277 28296 26730 94 276 93 274 89 275 81 281 26730 25096 85 271 81 273 83 284 82 287 25096 23395 71 276 74 279 89 293 84 289 23395 21629 67 284 74 284 92 293 85 290 21629 19788 63 285 75 284 93 292 84 287 19788 17869 56 284 72 282 86 291 83 286 17869 15922 48 283 63 278 70 289 69 291 15922 14066 42 283 50 273 55 287 46 297 14066 12392 37 284 39 265 45 279 29 299 12392 10906 29 285 32 263 37 270 27 303 10906 9582 24 282 27 262 33 270 28 298 9582 8398 22 269 25 257 32 271 27 291 8398 7338 21 264 26 256 31 271 25 288 7338 6392 18 258 27*254 30 270 24 285 6392 5554 16 257 27*252 28 270 23 284 5554 4809 16 257 27 253 28 270 23 285 4809 4138 16*252 26 253 26 271 22 287 4138 3543 16*248 25 255 25 272 20 290 3543 3044 15 247 24 255 22 274 17 292 3044 2661 14 246 22 256 19 275 14 294 2661 2396 13 246 21 256 16 276 9 292 2396 2235 12 246 19 256 13 277 6 290 2235 2143 9 245 15 256 9*278 3*289 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography