DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/24 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0703z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 79.0 - - 88.8 - - 94.9 - - 94.0 - - 87.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 132 - - 457 - - 419 - - 82 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1520 - - 7475 - - 12938 - - 11505 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2570 - - 7687 - - 12102 - - 9506 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 3620 - - 9575 - - 15038 - - 13605 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2236 - - 2527 - - 1489 - - 4887 - - 9078 Hgt.Variab. W* 239 - - 615 - - 718 - - 404 - - 11 W* B/S 18 - - 37 - - 13 - - 10 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 3 - - 10 - - 8 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 067 - - 144 - - 198 - - 232 - - 270 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 9 - - 20 - - 12 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 2 - - 3 - - 11 - - 43 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5390 - - -2322 - - 1036 - - -96 - - -10875 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9010 - - 11897 - - 14002 - - 13701 - - 13021 sfcLCL ODpotential -7791 - - -3777 - - 877 - - -678 - - -12931 ODpotential blCL 11411 - - 13352 - - 14161 - - 14283 - - 15076 blCL maxRH 65 - - 70 - - 95 - - 99 - - 91 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 100 - - 260 - - 90 CAPE Temp@2m 79.0 - - 88.8 - - 94.9 - - 94.0 - - 87.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 47.1 - - 43.7 - - 40.1 - - 40.8 - - 37.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 77.7 - - 86.0 - - 92.1 - - 93.1 - - 88.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.0 - - 43.6 - - 40.1 - - 40.6 - - 37.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 132 - - 457 - - 419 - - 82 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1520 - - 7475 - - 12938 - - 11505 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 82 - - 95 - - 62 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98380 20 085 21 133 20 126 6 100 10 080 98380 90919 4 145 14 115 10 105 16 089 13 083 90919 85173 9 157 4 127 13 104 11 085 12 064 85173 80426 10 131 10 116 11 100 12 108 10 078 80426 76341 13 109 13 110 9 113 11 093 14 088 76341 72735 9 098 11 112 4 096 10 099 12 078 72735 69477 3 054 5 100 4 179 2 069 11 085 69477 66476 7 300 2 047 10 178 6 255 3 069 66476 63689 10 268 8 281 8 229 13 269 8 310 63689 60993 9 269 13 262 12 259 16 260 20 275 60993 58204 15 288 17 292 18 289 17 281 23 273 58204 55326 27 283 30 282 27 284 26 284 26 282 55326 52584 33 279 36 274 33 271 35 280 32 283 52584 50123 36 284 39 279 34 273 42 276 43 276 50123 47930 45 286 46 280 42 274 48 271 53 275 47930 45950 49 281 45 278 44 274 53 271 61 273 45950 44141 45 280 45 277 46 276 56 273 65 271 44141 42469 41 280 44 276 47 275 56 274 67 272 42469 40911 39 279 42 274 43 272 56 275 66 273 40911 39448 37 278 39 273 40 271 54 274 61 272 39448 38071 37 278 36 273 38 270 51 271 57 271 38071 36742 37 278 34 272 36 268 46 267 53 268 36742 35396 36 280 33 272 35 266 44 263 49 265 35396 34002 33 281 31 274 34 265 43 261 44 260 34002 32566 31 282 27 271 31 260 42 260 41 258 32566 31071 26 277 26 262 30 252 38 256 37 253 31071 29507 25 266 26 255 30 249 33 244 33 241 29507 27876 26 260 26 249 27 248 32 241 32 233 27876 26179 24 255 26 250 22 246 25 242 28 229 26179 24419 20 252 22 247 20 243 18 230 22 220 24419 22599 14 242 18 242 14 234 15 222 22 210 22599 20708 10 217 11 228 9 226 14 204 23 205 20708 18740 9 212 9 222 7 211 18 166 24 182 18740 16738 11 198 15 201 21*190 17 163 24 153 16738 14806 21 179 21 182 21*190 15*166 22 148 14806 13042 23 169 27 179 19 192 10*178 12 144 13042 11466 19 165 25 177 16 197 9 190 7 145 11466 10057 15 169 14*169 14 199 8 213 4 169 10057 8795 12 169 8*160 11 202 8 224 4 224 8795 7668 9 160 7 157 9 204 8 237 6 255 7668 6663 6 142 4 148 7 205 9 245 10 267 6663 5772 5 133 3 139 5 207 9 251 14 271 5772 4981 3 133 2 130 4 209 9 255 17 273 4981 4268 2*126 1 119 3 211 9 258 20 272 4268 3636 2*087 1 095 2 214 9 260 21 271 3636 3105 3 069 1 072 2 217 9 262 21 271 3105 2697 3 063 1 057 1 222 9 263 20 270 2697 2415 3 062 1 051 1 225 9 263 18 270 2415 2244 3 062 1 048 1 226 9 264 15*271 2244 2145 2 059 1 046 1 228 8 264 10*270 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography