DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 05/08 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 74.9 - - 87.9 - - 94.3 - - 94.0 - - 83.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 73 - - 403 - - 442 - - 148 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 534 - - 4779 - - 10401 - - 10204 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 5485 - - 10055 - - 9125 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2634 - - 6879 - - 12501 - - 12304 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1182 - - 2886 - - 3362 - - 3547 - - 251 Hgt.Variab. W* 139 - - 509 - - 681 - - 470 - - 5 W* B/S 6 - - 12 - - 13 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 8 - - 9 - - 13 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 207 - - 314 - - 317 - - 324 - - 287 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 6 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - -6 - - 3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7598 - - -7367 - - -4048 - - -4944 - - -13121 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10232 - - 14247 - - 16550 - - 17249 - - 15267 sfcLCL ODpotential -11552 - - -9506 - - -7537 - - -8431 - - -18718 ODpotential blCL 14186 - - 16385 - - 20038 - - 20735 - - 20863 blCL maxRH 41 - - 45 - - 43 - - 44 - - 46 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 74.9 - - 87.9 - - 94.3 - - 94.0 - - 83.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.9 - - 32.2 - - 27.6 - - 24.2 - - 23.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 74.1 - - 85.1 - - 91.4 - - 92.7 - - 86.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 37.8 - - 32.0 - - 27.4 - - 24.0 - - 23.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 73 - - 403 - - 442 - - 148 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 534 - - 4779 - - 10401 - - 10204 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97845 13 317 17 316 18 283 21 308 23 334 97845 90451 10 310 14 288 16 283 19 309 19 298 90451 84725 13 310 11 295 12 278 10 299 13 272 84725 79976 9 285 9 291 11 283 9 290 7 282 79976 75906 16 279 12 271 16 295 17 299 7 300 75906 72331 16 275 14 260 14 285 18 298 10 290 72331 69113 16 283 15 262 12 279 19 288 19 305 69113 66157 23 283 23 272 19 279 23 278 27 301 66157 63412 28 278 25 268 24 274 24 268 28 285 63412 60755 29 271 26 269 27 273 23 267 27 274 60755 57987 29 271 29 266 30 271 27 275 26 281 57987 55120 35 271 29 269 33 264 32 277 29 286 55120 52392 34 270 31 277 28 269 30 274 30 281 52392 49948 29 277 30 287 28 287 26 277 30 273 49948 47769 30 284 30 297 31 293 26 281 26 281 47769 45809 26 299 28 305 31 295 27 287 23 287 45809 44023 28 324 23 317 27 307 25 296 19 293 44023 42377 22 349 29 324 26 330 21 308 20 315 42377 40849 29 007 37 329 28 337 18 332 23 315 40849 39415 36 013 35 335 28 336 20 338 20 309 39415 38059 39 018 31 349 26 342 18 332 15 318 38059 36747 41 022 32 001 24 351 17 336 15 319 36747 35414 42 026 31 006 22 355 17 338 15 320 35414 34033 42 029 31 015 22 356 18 337 15 329 34033 32606 39 027 32 023 21 003 19 336 17 339 32606 31120 35 022 31 024 21 010 19 337 18 345 31120 29563 33 022 30 020 21 011 18 342 16 342 29563 27936 32 021 28 022 20 011 15 351 15 340 27936 26237 32 018 26 025 17 017 13 358 13 343 26237 24466 32 015 27 026 16 029 9 012 10 339 24466 22630 28 018 30 022 19 037 11 040 4 348 22630 20724 26 024 30 019 23 030 16 047 7 073 20724 18748 22 027 25 022 23 024 19 045 14 078 18748 16743 18 038 20 030 19 025 17 040 18 069 16743 14810 19 036 16 037 14 029 11 031 16 056 14810 13046 19 024 13 038 9*016 8*346 13 034 13046 11470 17 006 11 033 8*334 11*323 11 003 11470 10062 14 345 11 015 9 316 12 322 12 339 10062 8803 13 334 12 338 9 314 13 321 13 324 8803 7676 13 336 12*318 10 313 13 322 15 317 7676 6671 17 334 11*315 10 314 14 323 15 314 6671 5779 21 327 10 313 10 314 14 324 16 312 5779 4987 21 327 8 312 10 315 14 325 17 311 4987 4273 17 325 7 312 10 317 14 326 17 309 4273 3639 10 306 7 313 10 318 14 327 18 308 3639 3107 7 274 7 315 10 319 14 328 18 306 3107 2697 5*237 6 317 10 320 14 328 16 305 2697 2415 4*210 6 318 9 321 13 328 14 302 2415 2243 4 207 6 318 9 321 13 328 10*295 2243 2145 4 205 5 319 8 321 11 329 6*287 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography