DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/14 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 74.4 - - 82.2 - - 74.4 - - 66.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 67 - - 103 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1004 - - 2827 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2128 - - 3360 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3104 - - 4927 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 848 - - 4826 - - 3407 - - 382 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 168 - - 272 - - 0 - - 4 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 19 - - 12 - - 5 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 137 - - 130 - - 084 - - 226 Direction Wind Shear - - - 12 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - 3 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -10924 - - -11072 - - -11853 - - -9718 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 14029 - - 16000 - - 13999 - - 11862 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -18492 - - -16979 - - -19076 - - -18289 ODpotential blCL - - - 21596 - - 21906 - - 21221 - - 20433 blCL maxRH - - - 63 - - 84 - - 33 - - 28 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 74.4 - - 82.2 - - 74.4 - - 66.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 20.7 - - 18.9 - - 20.9 - - 22.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 73.8 - - 81.3 - - 78.3 - - 71.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 20.0 - - 18.4 - - 20.4 - - 22.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 67 - - 103 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1004 - - 2827 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 34 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96291 25 296 41 274 33 293 37 289 96291 89282 16 295 16 301 15 283 22 324 89282 83842 10 308 15 011 1 244 12 354 83842 79296 5 021 13 032 11 039 14 051 79296 75378 10 058 14 046 19 032 22 061 75378 71930 12 056 13 041 20 044 24 059 71930 68815 17 067 12 048 18 039 25 053 68815 65951 17 056 15 053 10 037 18 029 65951 63300 10 009 12 029 12 006 15 007 63300 60735 10 328 12 341 13 348 15 357 60735 58050 10 332 13 318 14 314 17 336 58050 55250 13 331 13 325 12 304 19 303 55250 52564 19 291 18 315 14 314 16 296 52564 50131 25 273 26 284 23 303 19 300 50131 47936 33 260 38 268 29 289 26 284 47936 45933 39 259 42 270 36 277 34 275 45933 44097 43 262 51 269 47 274 42 268 44097 42408 50 264 62 267 61 269 53 266 42408 40839 55 265 65 265 66 265 56 264 40839 39373 57 267 60 265 64 260 57 261 39373 37997 53 267 53 262 57 254 60 257 37997 36676 47 265 50 253 52 248 61 255 36676 35342 38 261 50 245 55 245 58 252 35342 33965 34 252 49 244 54 243 51 249 33965 32543 35 249 44 245 49 246 46 247 32543 31059 34 251 37 245 39 248 38 247 31059 29502 31 255 31 249 31 241 30 244 29502 27873 23 257 25 258 25 236 24 235 27873 26170 19 236 17 241 19 229 24 220 26170 24395 18 218 18 220 22 218 24 215 24395 22556 13 194 18 200 18 220 20 217 22556 20646 12 172 18 183 14 218 16 219 20646 18660 12 173 15 180 13 212 13 214 18660 16643 10 176 14 181 12 208 8 200 16643 14703 10 173 14 172 11 201 5 209 14703 12936 9 169 13 169 12 184 8 210 12936 11363 7 161 10 173 13 182 12 183 11363 9961 5 158 8 177 12 187 10 176 9961 8709 5 164 8 177 10 187 6 153 8709 7590 6 162 9 174 7 178 5 135 7590 6593 9 157 9 167 6 143 9 148 6593 5710 12 151 10 153 9 118 15 148 5710 4927 17 146 13*134 12 111 21 141 4927 4224 24 138 13*131 13 107 24 133 4224 3602 26*135 13 131 13 104 22 124 3602 3081 24*135 13 130 13 102 19 117 3081 2681 21 137 12 130 12 100 13 118 2681 2407 19 137 12 129 10 097 6 127 2407 2240 17 138 11 129 7*091 3 143 2240 2144 12 138 9 129 5*084 2*226 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography