DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/12 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1334z - - 1559z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 86.6 - - 94.6 - - 93.6 - - 82.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 152 - - 286 - - 19 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2453 - - 6185 - - 4946 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3390 - - 6448 - - 2130 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4553 - - 8285 - - 7046 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2274 - - 2614 - - 4083 - - 2739 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 307 - - 498 - - 221 - - 16 W* B/S - - - 15 - - 44 - - 13 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 181 - - 219 - - 312 - - 111 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -5 - - -6 - - -9 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -802 - - -121 - - -744 - - -791 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5355 - - 8407 - - 7790 - - 2937 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3038 - - -928 - - -2651 - - -3613 ODpotential blCL - - - 7591 - - 9213 - - 9697 - - 5759 blCL maxRH - - - 92 - - 83 - - 83 - - 82 maxRH CAPE - - - 2390 - - 1850 - - 2280 - - 3960 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 86.6 - - 94.6 - - 93.6 - - 82.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 70.0 - - 64.8 - - 66.5 - - 75.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 85.4 - - 92.6 - - 93.6 - - 83.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 69.1 - - 64.5 - - 65.4 - - 74.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 152 - - 286 - - 19 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2453 - - 6185 - - 4946 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 70 - - 33 - - 31 - - 26 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 16 - - 14 - - 14 - - 20 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98767 15 138 12 180 5 106 16 086 98767 91327 14 123 20 132 11 127 15 063 91327 85582 19 117 20 118 20 124 9 082 85582 80824 19 097 18 119 19 103 17 113 80824 76716 12 080 18 102 18 097 23 112 76716 73074 7 126 13 085 15 083 17 087 73074 69803 4 108 7 108 11 080 10 060 69803 66825 3 222 1 336 8 050 10 080 66825 64079 5 153 3 235 5 330 7 351 64079 61452 5 007 4 034 3 039 4 330 61452 58748 8 304 9 308 9 325 8 347 58748 55979 4 254 8 287 11 283 14 311 55979 53369 4 360 5 336 7 253 10 280 53369 51023 12 329 10 327 6 306 4 286 51023 48905 17 309 12 318 8 321 5 331 48905 46965 17 286 11 306 8 321 7 332 46965 45169 16 277 13 279 11 293 12 291 45169 43493 17 278 17 272 15 278 16 270 43493 41916 20 273 19 268 18 273 21 259 41916 40429 18 268 17 265 18 263 21 254 40429 39020 16 270 14 258 17 263 17 243 39020 37657 15 266 15 250 15 260 12 244 37657 36273 13 268 14 245 16 250 11 240 36273 34838 10 276 11 249 13 251 11 234 34838 33354 9 282 8 256 10 278 9 220 33354 31809 9 293 6 276 8 294 7 224 31809 30192 9 287 7 272 7 310 6 229 30192 28504 10 291 5 268 6 283 4 224 28504 26747 9 300 3 298 4 244 2 233 26747 24925 6 292 4 308 1 226 3 051 24925 23040 4 239 4 251 3 202 7 107 23040 21087 3 200 4 218 5 184 6 129 21087 19062 4 170 3 228 4 182 4 155 19062 17003 4 158 3 213 4 123 6 153 17003 15020 3 174 4 170 8 135 7 162 15020 13213 0 139 5 143 7 145 6 163 13213 11603 4 085 7 150 4 135 5 146 11603 10166 8 119 7 165 0 074 5 122 10166 8885 8 116 6*170 1 316 4 112 8885 7740 4 091 3*191 2*310 3 142 7740 6721 1 041 2 200 2*311 2 193 6721 5818 3 195 2 209 3 310 3 235 5818 5017 5*189 2 222 3 311 4 244 5017 4295 5*186 2 231 3 311 3 233 4295 3655 4 182 2 235 3 313 2 186 3655 3118 4 180 2 243 3 314 2 131 3118 2705 4 178 2 248 3 313 3 114 2705 2419 3 177 2 248 3 314 3 108 2419 2245 3 176 2 250 3 315 3*108 2245 2146 3 176 2 250 3 315 3*111 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography