DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 02/27 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 59.9 - - 83.7 - - 90.8 - - 88.7 - - 74.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 213 - - 305 - - 49 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1832 - - 5610 - - 3895 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3035 - - 6019 - - 3225 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 3932 - - 7710 - - 5995 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 68 - - 2550 - - 1897 - - 2493 - - 216 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 299 - - 489 - - 236 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 15 - - 14 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 182 - - 155 - - 342 - - 339 - - 344 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4095 - - -8899 - - -6631 - - -8384 - - -9731 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6239 - - 12831 - - 14342 - - 14379 - - 11876 sfcLCL ODpotential -14471 - - -14382 - - -10461 - - -12664 - - -17097 ODpotential blCL 16615 - - 18314 - - 18171 - - 18659 - - 19242 blCL maxRH 58 - - 55 - - 51 - - 57 - - 22 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 59.9 - - 83.7 - - 90.8 - - 88.7 - - 74.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.7 - - 35.0 - - 35.0 - - 32.9 - - 30.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.5 - - 82.0 - - 88.5 - - 88.1 - - 79.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.7 - - 34.9 - - 34.8 - - 32.8 - - 30.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 213 - - 305 - - 49 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1832 - - 5610 - - 3895 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96493 9 289 16 287 14 260 17 275 17 270 96493 89304 9 274 5 290 4 204 6 266 6 318 89304 83785 7 244 7 279 8 318 5 288 9 010 83785 79168 5 100 9 241 16 293 17 305 17 343 79168 75207 15 350 8 355 10 328 17 319 25 333 75207 71763 23 346 18 005 15 343 20 333 27 345 71763 68691 26 347 26 350 22 348 21 339 27 351 68691 65886 36 356 31 346 28 343 27 341 34 343 65886 63295 43 340 39 337 36 337 35 336 36 332 63295 60784 44 321 45 325 42 327 38 334 38 331 60784 58133 44 314 48 311 46 320 42 325 41 333 58133 55351 47 313 52 304 51 311 51 314 48 316 55351 52685 49 315 50 300 51 303 52 309 53 311 52685 50273 51 309 48 304 49 303 49 308 56 310 50273 48102 51 300 49 303 51 301 52 311 58 310 48102 46124 52 297 50 302 53 298 54 302 59 300 46124 44310 51 294 49 302 51 295 54 295 58 297 44310 42633 49 295 48 303 47 295 51 291 57 296 42633 41071 49 296 46 301 44 302 47 290 55 293 41071 39615 46 297 43 299 42 303 43 294 49 294 39615 38252 43 303 39 301 39 303 41 294 42 298 38252 36934 40 307 37 306 37 304 38 292 39 301 36934 35594 37 307 36 308 37 307 36 295 37 302 35594 34205 36 308 35 311 36 309 34 300 35 305 34205 32770 36 308 35 316 34 311 31 306 32 306 32770 31275 37 311 36 320 31 313 33 309 30 308 31275 29709 35 315 37 321 32 314 35 312 30 309 29709 28071 31 316 36 320 35 310 35 308 28 309 28071 26360 29 320 30 318 34 309 36 308 27 312 26360 24581 25 322 25 313 31 308 34 314 25 319 24581 22737 24 323 23 307 26 305 28 313 22 320 22737 20823 25 327 23 309 24 308 23 307 20 314 20823 18832 29 334 25 311 24 314 22 307 20 313 18832 16801 28 339 23 323 20 321 21 310 20 314 16801 14840 22 336 19 327 17 327 21 322 25 328 14840 13050 17 338 16 323 15 329 20 326 25 336 13050 11453 13 349 11 329 13 333 17 328 21 336 11453 10031 11 003 8 333 9 332 14 334 14 329 10031 8764 9 017 5 345 6*329 9 328 9 318 8764 7635 10 024 5 009 5*334 7 320 8 312 7635 6632 10 034 6 040 5 336 7*326 9 312 6632 5746 9 046 5 058 6 338 7*331 9 319 5746 4958 9 063 5 090 6 340 8 335 9 332 4958 4251 9 086 5*143 7 342 9 339 10 344 4251 3623 8 111 4*157 7 345 9 339 11 351 3623 3096 6 143 4 156 7 348 9 341 12 353 3096 2691 5 160 4 156 7 348 10 341 12 355 2691 2411 6 168 3 153 7 349 9 342 11 356 2411 2241 5*173 3 150 7 350 9 342 6*354 2241 2145 4*182 3 151 6 350 8 342 4*344 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography