DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1603z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.7 - - 84.1 - - 88.5 - - 87.4 - - 79.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 6 - - 92 - - 120 - - 44 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 2154 - - 3986 - - 2987 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 2992 - - 4367 - - 2129 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 4254 - - 6086 - - 5087 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1588 - - 3350 - - 3175 - - 3472 - - 1060 Hgt.Variab. W* 38 - - 262 - - 334 - - 221 - - 21 W* B/S 1 - - 10 - - 13 - - 6 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 164 - - 179 - - 202 - - 199 - - 179 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -4 - - 6 - - -4 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -830 - - -229 - - -332 - - -794 - - -523 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2975 - - 4484 - - 6418 - - 5881 - - 2669 sfcLCL ODpotential -3981 - - -2351 - - -1759 - - -3206 - - -3687 ODpotential blCL 6126 - - 6605 - - 7845 - - 8293 - - 5833 blCL maxRH 83 - - 94 - - 100 - - 91 - - 83 maxRH CAPE 1730 - - 2420 - - 1850 - - 2150 - - 3510 CAPE Temp@2m 77.7 - - 84.1 - - 88.5 - - 87.4 - - 79.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 71.3 - - 71.2 - - 67.3 - - 68.4 - - 74.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 77.5 - - 83.2 - - 87.4 - - 87.1 - - 81.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 70.2 - - 69.9 - - 66.5 - - 67.6 - - 73.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 6 - - 92 - - 120 - - 44 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 2154 - - 3986 - - 2987 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 34 - - 75 - - 101 - - 65 - - 31 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 17 - - 16 - - 15 - - 15 - - 19 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98798 24 092 24 118 21 130 13 143 17 086 98798 91395 29 096 31 111 27 133 18 138 15 100 91395 85692 27 097 28 105 27 123 23 124 19 098 85692 80932 18 107 23 090 23 099 23 099 25 108 80932 76812 15 102 19 089 16 090 21 097 25 105 76812 73182 15 099 16 096 16 105 16 088 19 106 73182 69929 15 100 9 104 16 090 16 092 16 094 69929 66962 8 109 11 132 8 106 16 091 12 095 66962 64219 6 093 8 147 7 140 6 086 4 078 64219 61571 14 305 6 217 6 190 8 186 7 183 61571 58832 20 252 17 251 14 250 10 233 10 231 58832 56020 22 215 21 239 23 237 21 237 21 241 56020 53363 27 247 28 247 32 242 32 248 31 241 53363 50978 35 255 32 249 38 243 39 245 37 239 50978 48834 46 261 40 255 43 247 42 245 42 244 48834 46877 49 259 44 250 45 242 47 245 48 250 46877 45072 48 252 45 249 46 247 53 249 54 251 45072 43391 48 252 47 254 52 257 55 248 54 248 43391 41812 50 255 50 257 51 252 54 242 54 243 41812 40321 50 254 50 255 49 245 53 242 55 240 40321 38911 49 253 49 253 52 251 52 242 53 241 38911 37545 47 254 46 253 51 254 51 246 53 243 37545 36158 46 257 42 255 44 254 48 255 51 245 36158 34721 44 260 37 254 36 246 41 254 48 250 34721 33240 43 261 35 251 34 243 37 248 37 245 33240 31699 38 258 33 247 32 241 36 246 35 237 31699 30086 33 249 32 241 31 238 36 243 34 236 30086 28404 31 241 31 241 30 238 34 242 30 241 28404 26656 27 246 27 244 26 242 29 245 25 243 26656 24841 22 251 22 243 21 240 22 243 19 240 24841 22962 15 240 16 231 17 226 17 234 16 235 22962 21012 13 222 16 215 17 215 15 220 15 221 21012 18988 17 213 20 201 19 207 16 213 16 205 18988 16932 16 211 19 202 16 203 13 211 12 197 16932 14957 15 223 16 203 12 197 10 224 9 202 14957 13164 14 226 15 200 11 200 11 209 8 195 13164 11566 11 209 12 197 11 207 12 209 6 201 11566 10139 7 202 7 190 9 192 10 210 6 225 10139 8863 4 169 4 193 6 179 8 210 6 228 8863 7724 4 110 3 235 4 191 7 213 8 217 7724 6709 1 216 4 243 4*196 7 215 9 213 6709 5809 4 225 5 237 4*198 7*213 10 210 5809 5009 4 193 5 218 4 201 8*208 11 206 5009 4289 6 166 5*190 5 202 7 203 11 204 4289 3650 8 170 5*180 5 203 7 200 12 202 3650 3115 11 182 5 179 5 203 7 196 13 197 3115 2702 11 177 5 180 5 203 7 193 13 191 2702 2418 7 165 5 178 5 203 6 191 11 187 2418 2245 7 164 4 178 5 202 6 190 8*183 2245 2146 6*164 4 178 4 201 5 188 5*179 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography