DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.8 - - 89.0 - - 93.3 - - 90.8 - - 78.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 109 - - 415 - - 440 - - 175 - - -30 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1268 - - 10072 - - 12160 - - 9679 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 9750 - - 11496 - - 8861 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 3368 - - 12172 - - 14260 - - 11779 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2119 - - 1671 - - 3143 - - 2558 - - 5086 Hgt.Variab. W* 212 - - 659 - - 716 - - 489 - - 7 W* B/S 2 - - 9 - - 8 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 15 - - 13 - - 17 - - 20 - - 11 BL Wind Direction 146 - - 198 - - 197 - - 220 - - 239 Direction Wind Shear 6 - - 9 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 7 - - 26 - - 14 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5617 - - -1564 - - -1164 - - -5222 - - -7719 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8985 - - 13736 - - 15425 - - 17002 - - 9865 sfcLCL ODpotential -7598 - - -3705 - - -2117 - - -9007 - - -11885 ODpotential blCL 10966 - - 15877 - - 16377 - - 20786 - - 14030 blCL maxRH 91 - - 91 - - 88 - - 78 - - 56 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 20 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 77.8 - - 89.0 - - 93.3 - - 90.8 - - 78.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.9 - - 35.5 - - 31.8 - - 22.1 - - 42.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.9 - - 86.5 - - 90.6 - - 89.5 - - 79.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 45.9 - - 35.5 - - 31.8 - - 22.1 - - 42.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 109 - - 415 - - 440 - - 175 - - -30 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1268 - - 10072 - - 12160 - - 9679 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 65 - - 63 - - 52 - - 11 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97926 17 223 25 242 25 253 17 269 17 290 97926 90480 22 251 22 245 18 250 19 261 28 266 90480 84745 20 261 16 258 21 256 22 276 17 277 84745 79974 13 277 12 262 19 254 26 286 20 290 79974 75894 17 282 13 262 15 268 21 267 18 281 75894 72322 19 269 22 265 18 273 18 276 21 302 72322 69086 18 279 20 273 22 287 19 282 27 287 69086 66113 21 266 23 286 27 285 24 272 24 268 66113 63370 26 276 27 285 26 279 25 283 24 290 63370 60713 30 291 31 295 30 282 29 287 29 295 60713 57944 43 278 41 286 43 280 45 285 42 290 57944 55088 53 275 55 276 54 277 55 281 51 288 55088 52369 63 277 60 269 61 280 61 282 62 285 52369 49922 68 278 65 275 77 280 76 279 74 281 49922 47745 71 281 86 275 84 273 82 275 85 278 47745 45790 95 280 86 273 86 271 85 275 91 278 45790 44011 106 276 90 277 89 275 92 275 95 281 44011 42366 101 276 99 276 94 277 99 276 113 287 42366 40831 97 277 105 274 99 276 102 275 132 283 40831 39383 95 277 103 274 101 274 104 274 128 282 39383 38009 93 278 98 273 99 274 107 272 125 282 38009 36678 87 280 94 272 96 274 107 273 120 284 36678 35327 81 280 90 273 87 276 106 275 110 285 35327 33929 78 277 84 277 77 277 104 277 105 284 33929 32485 76 273 76 272 72 276 98 278 100 283 32485 30981 77 271 74 267 70 271 87 280 91 282 30981 29409 71 272 75 266 71 268 76 280 79 280 29409 27772 56 273 67 264 66 266 71 275 69 276 27772 26068 49 268 58 255 56 264 67 272 62 274 26068 24301 44 264 53 254 51 267 59 270 54 276 24301 22475 38 264 44 261 47 271 50 273 45 273 22475 20582 37 261 35 265 44 278 40 275 40 267 20582 18616 37 258 29 268 28 272 30 271 36 262 18616 16613 34 249 25 257 18 252 22 252 30 258 16613 14682 25 233 21 232 17*222 16 222 24 254 14682 12923 18 217 18*209 18*207 16*203 18 247 12923 11356 12 205 17*203 18 198 17*208 16 223 11356 9959 6 189 16 202 18 196 17 210 18 203 9959 8711 7 174 15 199 18 195 19 215 20 196 8711 7597 8 171 13 197 17 195 20 219 21 197 7597 6604 9 171 13 196 17 195 21 222 22 204 6604 5725 11 168 12 195 17 195 22 223 22 212 5725 4943 13 169 12 195 17 196 22 224 23 221 4943 4240 16 165 11 195 16 195 22 226 25 229 4240 3616 18*152 11 195 16 195 22 226 25 233 3616 3093 17*147 10 194 15 196 22 227 24 236 3093 2689 16 146 10 194 15 196 21 227 22 238 2689 2411 15 145 9 193 15 196 21 227 19 239 2411 2242 14 145 9 193 14 196 19 227 16*239 2242 2145 11 145 8 193 12 196 16 227 11*239 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography