DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/14 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 54.2 - - 64.1 - - 66.5 - - 66.1 - - 62.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 62 - - 33 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3047 - - 3961 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3271 - - 2127 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5147 - - 6061 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 327 - - 3003 - - 3670 - - 7567 - - 2692 Hgt.Variab. W* 11 - - 254 - - 218 - - 16 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 11 - - 10 - - 5 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 160 - - 243 - - 284 - - 295 - - 038 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 6 - - 5 - - -1 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - 1248 - - 594 - - -3249 - - -965 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2143 - - 3899 - - 5467 - - 5393 - - 3109 sfcLCL ODpotential -2605 - - -179 - - -311 - - -4335 - - -2558 ODpotential blCL 4748 - - 5326 - - 6372 - - 6479 - - 4702 blCL maxRH 85 - - 88 - - 100 - - 99 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 130 - - 80 - - 80 - - 120 CAPE Temp@2m 54.2 - - 64.1 - - 66.5 - - 66.1 - - 62.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 52.1 - - 54.2 - - 49.9 - - 49.9 - - 56.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.7 - - 63.4 - - 66.1 - - 67.0 - - 63.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 51.7 - - 52.9 - - 49.1 - - 49.4 - - 56.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 62 - - 33 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3047 - - 3961 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 38 - - 54 - - 99 - - 95 - - 94 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 9 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96724 41 278 47 266 45 266 59 265 54 276 96724 89428 27 281 32 270 31 270 37 275 34 289 89428 83904 26 288 27 281 28 280 26 290 29 288 83904 79354 24 287 22 296 24 269 22 292 28 285 79354 75413 22 309 18 299 16 295 20 280 24 281 75413 71917 30 295 18 289 21 288 16 284 17 280 71917 68753 27 280 12 269 22 271 17 298 13 295 68753 65842 22 292 18 313 16 265 17 286 16 296 65842 63159 30 308 26 300 12 327 6 288 11 303 63159 60583 42 299 34 302 24 321 6 052 9 319 60583 57908 52 292 39 294 34 304 39 310 35 326 57908 55130 40 290 39 305 38 307 42 306 38 319 55130 52455 46 323 62 319 48 305 48 319 42 327 52455 50035 80 323 73 307 53 286 56 303 48 306 50035 47868 95 307 73 305 54 290 53 299 44 302 47868 45897 90 289 72 309 56 300 47 305 45 317 45897 44088 72 296 74 308 67 305 55 309 55 315 44088 42423 78 317 77 306 75 302 65 304 54 308 42423 40876 96 325 78 309 70 304 64 302 47 302 40876 39422 104 320 80 314 68 313 64 304 47 304 39422 38049 106 315 82 312 73 314 66 304 51 307 38049 36724 104 313 84 308 77 312 68 304 55 305 36724 35377 101 311 84 305 80 312 69 307 56 303 35377 33980 97 311 83 304 81 310 71 309 57 302 33980 32535 91 311 81 304 77 306 70 308 58 302 32535 31027 84 309 77 304 73 302 68 305 59 301 31027 29446 79 306 74 302 70 300 65 303 59 300 29446 27795 79 303 71 301 67 300 61 302 57 300 27795 26073 78 299 69 300 64 298 57 302 53 301 26073 24285 75 298 66 298 61 295 54 301 48 299 24285 22429 69 295 63 296 59 294 53 300 46 297 22429 20502 64 296 60 297 54 297 51 302 43 300 20502 18503 57 301 55 301 47 300 46 305 38 305 18503 16472 48 303 50 304 42 303 40 302 32 309 16472 14521 37 295 40 300 38 301 36 298 30 308 14521 12751 31 287 33 288 36 295 34 300 28 316 12751 11185 24 278 29 278 31 285 29 301 27 325 11185 9802 19 276 27 282 21 279 18 289 15 312 9802 8578 17 276 23 285 19 283 15 282 11 287 8578 7484 16 276 19 286 17 284 15 283 11 272 7484 6510 15 274 16 278 14*282 13 283 12 267 6510 5648 14 269 14*262 11*281 12 283 11 270 5648 4881 15 256 13*253 11 281 12 285 10 278 4881 4192 17 241 12 246 10 284 12 286 8 294 4192 3581 19 230 11 241 10 285 12 288 7 320 3581 3069 15 222 10 239 10 286 11 291 6 354 3069 2675 10 209 10 239 9 288 10 293 6 029 2675 2403 8 177 9 238 9 289 9 294 5 041 2403 2239 6 161 9 237 8 289 8 294 4*039 2239 2144 4*160 8 236 7 290 5*295 2*038 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography