DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.1 - - 75.4 - - 82.0 - - 74.0 - - 61.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -26 - - 94 - - 126 - - -25 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1076 - - 3933 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2128 - - 4280 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3176 - - 6033 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 89 - - 1282 - - 3331 - - 2389 - - 213 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 191 - - 324 - - 5 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 50 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 12 - - 1 - - 6 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 169 - - 153 - - 133 - - 343 - - 299 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -3 - - 1 - - 2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5972 - - -9464 - - -8480 - - -10425 - - -6808 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8115 - - 12640 - - 14514 - - 12570 - - 8953 sfcLCL ODpotential -15453 - - -14210 - - -11891 - - -15150 - - -14102 ODpotential blCL 17596 - - 17386 - - 17924 - - 17294 - - 16246 blCL maxRH 44 - - 45 - - 47 - - 42 - - 36 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 53.1 - - 75.4 - - 82.0 - - 74.0 - - 61.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 26.4 - - 27.7 - - 25.3 - - 26.7 - - 30.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.8 - - 74.6 - - 80.8 - - 75.9 - - 66.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 26.1 - - 27.3 - - 25.1 - - 26.5 - - 30.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -26 - - 94 - - 126 - - -25 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1076 - - 3933 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96310 29 326 14 016 7 009 9 319 9 317 96310 89321 16 065 20 066 22 080 24 087 27 082 89321 83915 32 086 22 102 26 088 29 104 28 078 83915 79385 33 068 21 105 25 074 27 096 26 085 79385 75457 26 061 20 084 23 080 23 081 27 085 75457 71978 17 066 17 074 16 081 18 065 20 071 71978 68845 15 068 16 064 16 073 15 042 17 063 68845 65979 15 053 14 056 13 059 13 037 13 047 65979 63340 15 029 10 032 11 016 14 026 16 019 63340 60806 15 016 12 020 12 009 12 033 16 005 60806 58160 17 352 19 015 18 015 14 026 15 000 58160 55385 17 344 19 008 22 001 18 357 17 351 55385 52702 16 338 17 358 25 349 22 344 22 345 52702 50256 17 319 18 340 24 343 24 339 22 343 50256 48037 21 305 19 320 22 338 23 339 20 344 48037 46002 25 292 20 308 21 327 22 338 21 345 46002 44125 31 284 22 293 22 306 22 330 24 340 44125 42384 34 275 25 284 24 290 21 319 26 331 42384 40763 35 272 27 276 25 280 22 310 26 327 40763 39251 36 273 30 269 26 274 23 296 25 324 39251 37836 42 272 33 265 27 272 24 285 24 319 37836 36477 49 271 35 266 25 275 23 276 21 318 36477 35109 59 266 40 268 24 284 18 270 19 333 35109 33702 62 261 44 265 27 285 14 275 21 340 33702 32257 52 249 44 262 30 275 14 282 17 329 32257 30760 44 254 42 258 31 264 14 285 11 323 30760 29204 36 254 41 252 33 259 16 278 7 319 29204 27592 26 259 33 249 31 258 17 269 7 340 27592 25919 21 266 21 261 22 258 14 261 7 342 25919 24184 17 269 13 274 11 271 5 272 8 354 24184 22386 15 260 11 250 10 271 1 303 7 359 22386 20513 17 254 12 244 10 266 3 263 7 001 20513 18554 18 254 12 255 9 269 3 284 7 000 18554 16554 17 255 10 257 7 268 2 297 5 002 16554 14627 15 248 8 245 3 250 2 175 2 021 14627 12874 13 243 4 213 2 195 2 163 3 224 12874 11313 8 239 3 144 3 162 0 180 0 270 11313 9919 3 223 2 093 2 135 2 013 3 009 9919 8672 0 187 2 058 2 141 3 024 3 358 8672 7558 2 055 2 074 2 169 1 004 4 352 7558 6566 4 074 3 087 2*167 1 353 3 358 6566 5688 5 084 2 110 2*160 2 000 3 022 5688 4909 6 112 5 152 2 151 3 357 6 043 4909 4210 9 129 11 156 1 145 5 355 10 036 4210 3591 15 137 15*151 1 130 9 350 12 017 3591 3074 20 133 14*152 1 111 11 346 11 001 3074 2677 19 133 13 153 1 095 12 344 11 349 2677 2404 17 142 12 153 1 089 12 343 9 342 2404 2239 11 152 11 153 1 081 9 343 4*323 2239 2144 6*169 9 153 1 084 6*343 3*299 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography