DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/20 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 69.9 - - 84.8 - - 88.2 - - 81.1 - - 74.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 2 - - 203 - - 85 - - -11 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 5010 - - 6698 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 5365 - - 6165 - - 2129 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 7110 - - 8798 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 347 - - 3318 - - 4503 - - 2127 - - 584 Hgt.Variab. W* 20 - - 414 - - 365 - - 25 - - 18 W* B/S 1 - - 7 - - 6 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 10 - - 12 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 160 - - 183 - - 207 - - 076 - - 100 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 7 - - 29 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2029 - - -435 - - 346 - - -2114 - - -328 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4174 - - 7546 - - 8452 - - 4260 - - 2473 sfcLCL ODpotential -5706 - - -1040 - - -1027 - - -4643 - - -3887 ODpotential blCL 7850 - - 8150 - - 9825 - - 6788 - - 6032 blCL maxRH 75 - - 90 - - 79 - - 80 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 500 - - 730 - - 940 - - 2820 - - 2530 CAPE Temp@2m 69.9 - - 84.8 - - 88.2 - - 81.1 - - 74.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 58.8 - - 58.9 - - 58.4 - - 69.2 - - 70.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 69.9 - - 83.1 - - 87.5 - - 82.0 - - 75.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 58.6 - - 58.6 - - 57.4 - - 67.9 - - 69.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 2 - - 203 - - 85 - - -11 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 5010 - - 6698 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 62 - - 15 - - 20 - - 78 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 11 - - 10 - - 16 - - 17 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97647 21 317 24 303 27 287 32 306 30 306 97647 90377 26 300 24 302 24 306 21 309 24 302 90377 84788 21 296 24 309 14 308 19 311 15 311 84788 80155 14 305 10 275 16 282 15 298 18 320 80155 76155 9 320 4 279 9 275 13 300 10 308 76155 72617 4 337 4 327 2 221 7 310 5 333 72617 69409 2 233 7 319 1 287 3 307 7 309 69409 66464 3 162 7 304 0 270 1 333 5 290 66464 63753 6 240 4 247 3 189 3 229 4 270 63753 61149 11 206 12 226 8 198 6 213 4 239 61149 58456 12 208 21 215 16 217 15 217 11 220 58456 55681 20 203 20 225 19 228 23 221 21 228 55681 53038 31 224 30 233 34 234 35 226 34 225 53038 50647 35 234 33 234 41 233 42 226 41 219 50647 48483 38 238 38 236 42 231 44 224 44 222 48483 46500 42 240 41 235 41 231 42 228 44 228 46500 44668 42 240 41 237 42 235 43 235 46 234 44668 42967 40 243 42 240 44 237 48 236 51 234 42967 41379 41 245 43 239 45 238 50 237 53 230 41379 39885 42 246 43 238 45 239 50 238 50 237 39885 38480 44 247 43 240 45 241 50 242 57 244 38480 37130 44 249 43 241 47 244 54 249 61 243 37130 35765 46 254 44 241 46 245 64 253 63 246 35765 34351 51 253 46 241 45 247 66 252 65 249 34351 32891 58 250 48 243 47 245 59 249 61 247 32891 31370 52 249 48 242 49 242 52 244 57 243 31370 29778 45 247 45 237 50 240 48 240 54 236 29778 28113 42 246 44 238 46 240 47 236 51 231 28113 26379 40 244 42 239 44 240 44 236 47 228 26379 24586 35 237 42 240 44 240 44 236 44 225 24586 22733 33 235 40 241 43 235 43 228 45 226 22733 20815 36 240 37 241 41 227 43 220 46 225 20815 18826 37 241 36 240 38 223 40 218 43 220 18826 16801 36 234 37 236 36 223 34 218 38 214 16801 14850 35 228 35 230 32 220 26 207 31 206 14850 13074 33 229 31 221 26 210 22 193 25 190 13074 11490 29 228 28 210 23 207 20 194 22 176 11490 10076 23 219 26 204 20 206 17 197 18 178 10076 8811 18 205 24 203 17*205 15 204 15 188 8811 7679 17 200 19*198 16*206 14 211 14 202 7679 6670 15 197 15*192 14 207 13 217 12 212 6670 5776 13 191 13 189 13 208 12 222 11 218 5776 4981 12 184 11 184 12 208 11 225 8 219 4981 4266 12 180 10 180 11 207 9 227 6 206 4266 3632 12 175 9 178 10 207 6 225 5 186 3632 3102 14 160 8 176 9 206 3 211 4 142 3102 2694 14 148 7 173 9 206 2 143 6 108 2694 2413 12 147 7 172 8 206 3 092 8 100 2413 2243 8 152 7 171 8 205 4 082 7*101 2243 2145 4*160 6 170 7 205 3*076 3*100 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography