DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/13 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 71.3 - - 72.9 - - 72.1 - - 71.1 - - 68.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 5 - - 10 - - 1 - - -27 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 1090 - - 45 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 3190 - - 2145 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1923 - - 2858 - - 3912 - - 4824 - - 3670 Hgt.Variab. W* 33 - - 124 - - 37 - - 30 - - 19 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 15 - - 11 - - 8 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 146 - - 198 - - 189 - - 176 - - 164 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -7 - - -6 - - -4 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -347 - - 686 - - -481 - - -370 - - -156 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2492 - - 2504 - - 2627 - - 2515 - - 2301 sfcLCL ODpotential -2302 - - -569 - - -1578 - - -1850 - - -2054 ODpotential blCL 4447 - - 3759 - - 3723 - - 3995 - - 4199 blCL maxRH 87 - - 100 - - 100 - - 93 - - 93 maxRH CAPE 860 - - 1290 - - 920 - - 880 - - 390 CAPE Temp@2m 71.3 - - 72.9 - - 72.1 - - 71.1 - - 68.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 66.9 - - 68.4 - - 67.1 - - 66.7 - - 65.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 71.2 - - 72.8 - - 72.2 - - 72.2 - - 70.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 66.2 - - 67.5 - - 66.2 - - 65.7 - - 64.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 5 - - 10 - - 1 - - -27 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 1090 - - 45 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 47 - - 100 - - 101 - - 72 - - 72 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 15 - - 15 - - 15 - - 15 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97581 0 234 8 272 9 264 16 331 12 009 97581 90320 4 183 2 218 2 154 5 141 2 353 90320 84715 7 158 5 132 2 128 6 167 5 319 84715 80041 7 178 8 147 9 176 9 222 8 316 80041 76008 2 121 5 180 10 193 11 224 9 243 76008 72456 5 075 6 194 7 185 4 199 6 222 72456 69243 4 122 8 244 2 319 1 094 1 059 69243 66300 9 224 12 221 8 236 4 269 5 137 66300 63578 12 257 7 155 5 172 6 212 8 110 63578 60959 25 240 15 206 16 193 20 194 14 201 60959 58269 31 219 31 214 28 206 24 204 23 218 58269 55497 30 241 34 227 35 221 37 227 40 219 55497 52856 44 248 47 242 48 236 52 233 53 228 52856 50480 62 243 63 241 67 236 65 234 63 235 50480 48345 71 238 72 234 78 232 78 232 74 235 48345 46396 74 238 75 231 83 229 85 230 81 233 46396 44596 78 240 77 232 85 228 89 227 83 229 44596 42919 81 239 83 232 88 227 92 225 85 223 42919 41343 81 238 86 231 90 227 94 225 88 221 41343 39854 80 237 85 230 89 228 92 227 90 223 39854 38445 80 238 83 230 87 228 89 229 89 225 38445 37083 80 241 83 232 86 230 88 231 86 226 37083 35702 79 242 83 235 84 232 87 232 83 227 35702 34271 77 238 81 236 82 232 85 233 82 228 34271 32795 77 234 77 235 79 231 82 231 81 230 32795 31261 75 234 75 232 77 230 80 228 80 228 31261 29656 69 238 74 232 75 229 77 225 79 225 29656 27982 61 237 68 233 70 229 73 225 78 225 27982 26240 52 234 58 231 61 227 66 224 73 225 26240 24437 45 228 48 223 55 222 60 221 65 223 24437 22578 42 226 43 219 49 219 54 218 57 221 22578 20659 41 226 41 219 44 217 48 213 50 216 20659 18670 40 225 41 218 41 216 45 210 45 210 18670 16646 39 225 40 217 39 217 41 208 41 209 16646 14693 38 222 35 210 35 216 37 208 36 210 14693 12917 37 217 34 202 35 207 35 207 34 208 12917 11340 34 215 33 198 36 199 37 203 36 202 11340 9938 30 217 32 199 34 196 37 199 38 197 9938 8688 26 217 31 206 32 197 34 198 37 195 8688 7574 22 215 29 213 31 204 31 200 35 196 7574 6583 18 208 26 216 29 209 30 203 33 199 6583 5708 16 204 23 214 27 211 29 202 31 202 5708 4930 15 205 21 212 25 210 28 201 29 202 4930 4231 15 204 20 209 23 208 26 199 28 202 4231 3609 14 199 20*208 22 205 23 195 25 200 3609 3088 12 182 17*202 19 200 20 190 21 194 3088 2687 10 159 16 199 17 196 17 185 18 188 2687 2409 9 148 15 197 16 193 14 181 14 177 2409 2241 8*146 14 195 14*191 12*178 10*168 2241 2145 6*146 10 194 11*189 8*176 7*164 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography