DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 02/06 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.0 - - 72.1 - - 78.3 - - 76.6 - - 66.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -22 - - 195 - - 255 - - 5 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2173 - - 8878 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 3242 - - 8495 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4273 - - 10978 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 124 - - 3976 - - 1773 - - 11634 - - 379 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 307 - - 537 - - 26 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 12 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 11 - - 8 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 175 - - 150 - - 188 - - 288 - - 281 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -3 - - -4 - - -1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5168 - - -7332 - - -1878 - - -10615 - - -8213 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7311 - - 11606 - - 12857 - - 12761 - - 10358 sfcLCL ODpotential -12598 - - -10758 - - -4459 - - -12121 - - -11813 ODpotential blCL 14741 - - 15031 - - 15437 - - 14266 - - 13957 blCL maxRH 65 - - 68 - - 69 - - 85 - - 80 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 53.0 - - 72.1 - - 78.3 - - 76.6 - - 66.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.4 - - 28.7 - - 28.8 - - 27.7 - - 28.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.0 - - 70.5 - - 76.4 - - 76.4 - - 70.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.3 - - 28.6 - - 28.6 - - 27.6 - - 28.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -22 - - 195 - - 255 - - 5 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2173 - - 8878 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 39 - - 21 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96426 4 227 8 314 10 239 9 285 10 265 96426 89212 6 149 4 176 1 285 4 217 5 038 89212 83718 5 007 6 147 1 309 4 238 5 022 83718 79171 6 004 9 145 5 248 2 189 6 294 79171 75242 2 045 5 114 2 210 4 127 5 270 75242 71762 5 141 2 099 5 103 6 141 6 198 71762 68620 6 140 3 112 5 094 6 126 7 143 68620 65754 5 185 7 199 2 271 2 010 5 138 65754 63112 10 200 16 206 13 247 8 286 2 177 63112 60550 7 209 15 196 20 213 14 252 11 234 60550 57863 10 259 13 209 19 201 18 221 17 214 57863 55054 21 243 15 213 17 210 17 205 18 218 55054 52359 26 227 25 211 27 220 25 223 27 231 52359 49916 27 216 29 206 31 215 31 222 34 231 49916 47700 34 220 32 219 36 214 39 216 41 213 47700 45665 41 220 42 219 42 213 40 216 40 208 45665 43779 42 219 51 222 48 217 45 226 40 218 43779 42026 46 223 58 222 58 219 54 224 45 224 42026 40396 50 222 58 218 56 215 57 214 53 219 40396 38887 52 221 56 214 55 209 58 204 63 211 38887 37494 57 221 60 211 62 207 64 203 71 209 37494 36179 66 221 65 211 67 210 73 207 78 211 36179 34860 70 217 72 209 71 212 78 211 81 212 34860 33499 66 213 73 202 74 211 79 211 77 213 33499 32094 64 212 72 205 74 209 76 211 69 213 32094 30628 62 213 69 208 71 210 68 213 60 211 30628 29092 59 216 61 209 66 211 59 211 56 208 29092 27487 53 227 54 213 59 210 52 206 55 203 27487 25808 38 222 48 214 50 208 48 200 53 204 25808 24058 35 201 44 209 48 213 44 198 50 205 24058 22246 40 201 40 208 48 217 38 205 44 213 22246 20369 36 206 36 208 40 216 33 221 36 224 20369 18420 26 208 29 207 30 215 27 222 30 221 18420 16435 20 206 22 207 21 213 23 214 23 206 16435 14525 18 203 16 205 16 196 20 192 21 181 14525 12793 15 195 14 196 15 186 16 186 18 163 12793 11250 11 190 14 182 13*186 12 194 10 174 11250 9872 9 191 12 169 12*187 10 204 8 204 9872 8639 8 187 10 165 12 187 8 216 8 227 8639 7536 7 176 8 158 10 188 7 228 8 239 7536 6554 6 168 8 156 9 188 6 242 9 246 6554 5683 5 168 8 156 8 189 6 255 8 252 5683 4909 5 167 10*156 7 188 5 265 7 260 4909 4213 6 166 11*152 7 188 5 273 7 273 4213 3595 8 166 12 150 6 187 5 280 6 294 3595 3078 14 153 12 150 5 188 5 283 6 316 3078 2680 16 150 11 149 5 188 5 285 7 329 2680 2406 14 158 11 149 5 188 5 287 6 332 2406 2239 10*165 10 149 4 187 5*287 3 309 2239 2144 6*175 9 149 4 188 5*288 3*281 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography