DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 59.0 - - 63.0 - - 67.6 - - 65.6 - - 60.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 2 - - 51 - - 193 - - -9 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2026 - - 4436 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2127 - - 4910 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 4126 - - 6536 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1636 - - 2855 - - 1793 - - 6691 - - 3047 Hgt.Variab. W* 22 - - 207 - - 392 - - 13 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 2 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 16 - - 16 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 238 - - 250 - - 242 - - 254 - - 245 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -7 - - -7 - - -4 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - 749 - - 48 - - -3896 - - -2577 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2144 - - 3378 - - 6488 - - 6040 - - 4721 sfcLCL ODpotential -538 - - -289 - - -1685 - - -4955 - - -4967 ODpotential blCL 2682 - - 4415 - - 8221 - - 7099 - - 7111 blCL maxRH 100 - - 96 - - 78 - - 74 - - 68 maxRH CAPE 100 - - 190 - - 0 - - 30 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 59.0 - - 63.0 - - 67.6 - - 65.6 - - 60.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 57.8 - - 55.5 - - 46.5 - - 46.6 - - 47.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.9 - - 62.5 - - 66.3 - - 66.1 - - 62.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 57.6 - - 54.5 - - 46.1 - - 46.4 - - 47.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 2 - - 51 - - 193 - - -9 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2026 - - 4436 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 86 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 9 - - 7 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96499 36 262 43 271 53 270 54 277 46 284 96499 89342 32 289 32 275 33 279 27 276 37 281 89342 83811 25 287 21 278 23 289 21 286 19 282 83811 79234 20 283 13 278 17 305 17 289 16 299 79234 75302 16 291 11 282 7 279 16 288 16 312 75302 71815 10 330 7 272 3 199 9 254 13 314 71815 68661 14 288 8 266 4 235 5 302 14 294 68661 65773 3 188 1 320 10 191 7 301 15 269 65773 63105 15 249 14 267 12 236 18 240 23 233 63105 60528 24 231 19 216 22 226 25 235 23 239 60528 57814 23 216 28 228 33 235 29 241 29 233 57814 54958 37 232 45 235 43 243 34 250 40 242 54958 52210 48 234 56 236 56 246 45 251 50 248 52210 49734 56 231 62 235 66 242 58 247 58 249 49734 47518 62 231 64 232 70 236 68 241 61 248 47518 45511 62 234 64 231 70 233 68 241 62 253 45511 43674 63 238 65 233 69 235 71 247 63 255 43674 41976 69 238 71 235 74 239 76 248 61 260 41976 40397 73 232 83 232 82 238 76 252 61 267 40397 38922 72 227 93 227 88 236 79 252 61 271 38922 37541 71 225 93 223 92 235 80 249 59 276 37541 36215 71 223 92 221 94 236 74 249 58 278 36215 34880 70 221 93 221 87 239 62 269 56 274 34880 33509 69 221 94 222 69 243 63 274 56 270 33509 32101 69 220 94 221 63 263 63 269 56 268 32101 30636 68 219 90 220 66 271 63 268 56 265 30636 29101 67 218 85 220 66 271 63 268 54 262 29101 27494 68 217 78 224 62 266 60 270 52 262 27494 25814 69 217 74 227 64 257 57 271 51 267 25814 24061 67 218 71 229 65 252 54 268 50 272 24061 22241 62 219 70 229 63 249 55 269 48 274 22241 20346 56 222 68 229 61 243 52 269 46 272 20346 18373 53 225 65 230 56 242 46 261 44 269 18373 16367 50 227 60 231 49 242 44 254 40 266 16367 14440 46 224 50 230 40 242 41 250 37 262 14440 12694 43 218 40 227 33 244 37 250 36 259 12694 11146 37 216 37 222 30 247 34 252 33 259 11146 9773 33 218 34 219 25 244 26 252 22 256 9773 8553 32 218 31 218 23 238 18 250 14 245 8553 7465 29 220 29 217 20*236 16 250 12 244 7465 6496 25 222 26 221 17*237 15 251 11 248 6496 5637 23 226 24 226 17 238 15 252 11 253 5637 4875 21 229 22 232 16 240 15 252 12 257 4875 4188 21 231 20*240 16 243 14 253 13 260 4188 3579 20 230 18*246 16 244 14 254 14 261 3579 3068 18 232 17 249 15 245 14 254 14 261 3068 2674 15 235 16 251 14 246 13 254 13 261 2674 2403 12 238 15 251 14 247 12 254 11 259 2403 2238 10*239 14 252 13 247 10*255 8*254 2238 2144 7*238 11 253 11 248 8*254 5*245 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography