DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 07/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 97.2 - - 103.8 - - 103.6 - - 93.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 380 - - 430 - - 175 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 5515 - - 9956 - - 9660 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 6040 - - 9674 - - 8838 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 7615 - - 12056 - - 11760 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2056 - - 2216 - - 2859 - - 4799 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 523 - - 664 - - 487 - - 5 W* B/S - - - 29 - - 16 - - 14 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 7 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 193 - - 231 - - 264 - - 310 Direction Wind Shear - - - 8 - - 14 - - 14 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -5 - - -6 - - 10 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -12763 - - -8974 - - -8934 - - -16766 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 20379 - - 21031 - - 20695 - - 18913 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -18268 - - -12677 - - -12838 - - -23078 ODpotential blCL - - - 25883 - - 24733 - - 24598 - - 25224 blCL maxRH - - - 87 - - 79 - - 86 - - 63 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 97.2 - - 103.8 - - 103.6 - - 93.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 13.6 - - 16.5 - - 18.2 - - 17.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 94.7 - - 100.9 - - 102.0 - - 96.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 13.5 - - 16.5 - - 18.1 - - 17.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 380 - - 430 - - 175 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 5515 - - 9956 - - 9660 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 49 - - 16 - - 45 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98976 32 104 33 114 30 097 36 089 98976 91507 33 102 32 118 26 106 26 081 91507 85751 27 094 33 100 29 117 26 088 85751 80975 26 097 31 094 31 111 22 100 80975 76879 26 104 26 093 29 093 25 103 76879 73279 18 113 22 090 20 088 22 095 73279 70037 16 121 17 092 14 083 15 083 70037 67068 19 126 8 119 14 080 18 079 67068 64320 20 115 11 120 9 073 18 056 64320 61662 4 046 11 062 8 052 15 050 61662 58906 14 207 11 245 10 295 13 336 58906 56075 10 268 14 255 15 271 20 274 56075 53392 33 295 29 293 27 300 30 312 53392 50984 50 280 52 286 54 299 56 307 50984 48819 50 282 54 284 55 295 57 300 48819 46838 56 293 52 293 59 300 64 306 46838 45011 59 293 58 300 63 300 66 302 45011 43310 60 293 62 293 58 293 58 296 43310 41726 69 293 72 288 56 287 51 290 41726 40245 74 292 65 291 57 287 51 289 40245 38851 71 289 52 291 53 291 56 287 38851 37498 62 287 42 271 49 284 58 286 37498 36121 36 265 39 261 51 270 53 291 36121 34692 35 261 37 259 51 274 47 288 34692 33217 31 260 34 249 41 280 41 281 33217 31680 21 251 28 237 22 257 31 260 31680 30073 14 240 19 203 21 220 24 240 30073 28413 10 220 15 181 16 193 19 178 28413 26690 10 196 15 182 12 173 17 170 26690 24892 12 184 16 173 10 171 16 172 24892 23024 14 179 18 169 11 184 14 179 23024 21082 15 174 19 168 15 193 15 189 21082 19063 15 175 17 170 18 192 15 194 19063 17007 16 188 14 188 18 197 15 195 17007 15024 21 202 19 198 16 194 13 185 15024 13221 23 209 16*200 13*198 12 183 13221 11618 20 215 13*204 11*204 7 207 11618 10187 17 213 13 206 9 215 6 259 10187 8907 14 205 11 214 7 246 7 282 8907 7761 10*199 8 229 7 263 9 293 7761 6741 9*197 7 241 7 276 10 298 6741 5835 5 192 6 251 7 284 11 302 5835 5030 4 192 6 260 8 289 12 303 5030 4305 3 191 6 268 8 294 13 305 4305 3662 2 191 6 274 8 297 14 306 3662 3122 2 189 5 280 8 298 14 307 3122 2706 1 192 5 283 8 299 13 309 2706 2420 1 188 5 285 8 300 11 311 2420 2245 1 186 5 286 8 301 8*311 2245 2146 1 182 5 287 7 301 5*310 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography