DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 02/13 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 68.3 - - 62.8 - - 64.8 - - 53.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 59 - - 44 - - 6 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2952 - - 3251 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2764 - - 2127 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5052 - - 5351 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 4748 - - 4129 - - 9024 - - 1372 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 229 - - 222 - - 30 - - 22 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 20 - - 20 - - 5 - - 8 BL Wind Direction - - - 209 - - 207 - - 226 - - 297 Direction Wind Shear - - - 10 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 9 - - -9 - - -4 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4382 - - -618 - - -4921 - - -543 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9434 - - 5969 - - 7065 - - 2686 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -6316 - - -1882 - - -5636 - - -2672 ODpotential blCL - - - 11368 - - 7233 - - 7780 - - 4815 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 99 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 120 - - 150 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 68.3 - - 62.8 - - 64.8 - - 53.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 34.4 - - 44.0 - - 41.3 - - 48.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 67.8 - - 62.4 - - 64.9 - - 53.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 34.3 - - 43.4 - - 40.7 - - 48.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 59 - - 44 - - 6 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2952 - - 3251 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 100 - - 100 - - 95 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96307 24 113 19 093 10 094 10 071 96307 89226 22 098 16 094 19 091 17 105 89226 83743 16 096 17 109 21 093 19 093 83743 79185 16 086 16 100 17 099 10 085 79185 75261 5 064 12 112 11 109 8 064 75261 71792 8 147 5 136 6 055 10 035 71792 68646 4 144 4 233 4 278 8 332 68646 65757 2 353 8 231 11 243 15 259 65757 63081 15 277 14 265 13 252 18 257 63081 60470 32 246 26 266 20 259 20 261 60470 57728 41 242 37 258 25 264 25 272 57728 54874 44 239 40 259 34 275 36 280 54874 52155 43 243 42 265 44 276 42 280 52155 49703 51 247 48 265 47 272 44 274 49703 47486 59 245 47 263 50 270 48 273 47486 45459 66 242 47 260 54 270 53 279 45459 43587 74 238 49 257 56 271 56 278 43587 41838 82 235 51 253 57 270 55 277 41838 40193 84 233 56 245 55 265 54 277 40193 38646 85 231 60 240 51 259 51 274 38646 37196 91 228 60 236 49 253 47 268 37196 35809 101 224 61 233 48 248 44 261 35809 34422 110 220 64 231 47 242 41 255 34422 33005 113 216 68 228 49 240 39 248 33005 31563 111 214 67 225 60 236 41 242 31563 30077 107 213 62 224 68 231 43 240 30077 28536 104 212 58 224 72 230 46 239 28536 26946 103 212 55 218 70 231 41 238 26946 25305 101 215 55 210 58 232 21 241 25305 23608 93 217 57 208 44 231 7 283 23608 21845 72 216 59 213 36 233 8 263 21845 20011 53 224 56 222 28 237 10 245 20011 18098 46 233 44 231 27 247 11 240 18098 16147 37 245 32 247 22 261 14 240 16147 14266 26 255 16 258 14 267 17 238 14266 12553 16 237 8 242 9 270 17 236 12553 11028 16 230 8 230 10 284 16 233 11028 9671 16 226 11 229 11 277 15 229 9671 8461 17 224 14 222 11 260 14 233 8461 7384 19 222 18 215 11 244 15 243 7384 6426 21 218 21 212 11 239 16 253 6426 5578 23*214 21*211 10 234 17 263 5578 4825 23*211 21*210 10 232 18 272 4825 4149 22 210 21 209 9 229 18 281 4149 3549 21 209 20 208 9 227 18 287 3549 3048 20 209 20 207 8 226 18 291 3048 2663 19 208 19 206 8 225 16 293 2663 2397 18 208 18 205 7 225 14 294 2397 2236 16 208 16 205 6*225 12 295 2236 2143 13 207 12 203 5*226 8*297 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography