DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/05 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.3 - - 69.5 - - 75.7 - - 71.6 - - 62.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 100 - - 166 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1436 - - 3995 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2128 - - 4503 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3536 - - 6095 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 149 - - 2230 - - 2066 - - 4738 - - 516 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 222 - - 360 - - 16 - - 0 W* B/S 1 - - 10 - - 63 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 6 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 187 - - 140 - - 116 - - 004 - - 321 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -1 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -870 - - -2725 - - -2451 - - -4541 - - -2407 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3014 - - 6262 - - 8547 - - 6685 - - 4551 sfcLCL ODpotential -9820 - - -8529 - - -7634 - - -8789 - - -8775 ODpotential blCL 11963 - - 12065 - - 13729 - - 10933 - - 10919 blCL maxRH 67 - - 55 - - 60 - - 53 - - 65 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 80 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 55.3 - - 69.5 - - 75.7 - - 71.6 - - 62.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 49.5 - - 49.5 - - 45.5 - - 49.7 - - 49.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.8 - - 68.6 - - 74.3 - - 72.1 - - 65.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 48.7 - - 48.4 - - 45.0 - - 49.3 - - 49.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 100 - - 166 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1436 - - 3995 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 6 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96799 67 272 74 286 62 264 71 270 72 273 96799 89582 47 279 56 283 39 275 45 281 44 288 89582 84055 27 276 37 268 34 285 30 290 29 293 84055 79508 18 295 19 251 29 277 28 305 27 299 79508 75604 21 323 7 239 21 266 20 308 18 308 75604 72138 19 331 6 322 10 270 14 272 14 306 72138 68973 16 304 10 303 12 303 13 273 14 315 68973 66035 18 277 14 293 17 308 12 287 16 303 66035 63303 17 286 14 278 16 290 15 279 18 286 63303 60673 15 308 12 270 14 264 17 264 21 283 60673 57961 19 312 15 284 15 267 18 271 22 278 57961 55164 24 295 24 285 22 282 21 279 20 275 55164 52490 33 282 33 284 30 282 28 277 27 275 52490 50068 43 282 38 278 36 278 38 275 40 278 50068 47881 57 277 43 275 43 271 46 270 51 271 47881 45887 59 270 46 276 41 266 48 266 49 273 45887 44049 57 271 48 278 41 274 49 268 51 274 44049 42343 59 274 52 280 50 276 53 271 56 275 42343 40750 61 276 54 274 54 275 53 274 60 276 40750 39258 62 276 56 271 52 272 54 278 62 276 39258 37859 61 275 58 269 52 269 57 278 61 280 37859 36520 61 272 56 269 52 270 54 277 58 283 36520 35176 58 271 52 270 51 272 48 282 54 288 35176 33795 52 272 51 270 49 270 45 284 51 292 33795 32375 48 273 49 272 45 269 40 280 49 292 32375 30895 43 274 39 270 34 273 35 278 46 291 30895 29344 33 276 30 268 32 269 30 275 36 296 29344 27722 31 274 27 276 30 269 28 273 29 300 27722 26032 30 275 24 273 26 271 29 273 24 290 26032 24276 27 279 23 271 25 272 29 275 22 280 24276 22454 23 281 20 278 24 273 26 276 22 279 22454 20556 19 282 18 277 22 273 22 279 20 271 20556 18578 17 283 18 274 20 271 20 279 15 259 18578 16560 15 285 17 271 17 268 16 274 12 253 16560 14615 14 288 13 270 14 265 11 264 12 238 14615 12848 11 282 8 259 10 250 8 245 10 231 12848 11277 7 270 7 233 8 231 7 222 11 224 11277 9878 4 238 8 213 9 215 12 196 17 196 9878 8634 4 191 8 202 11 197 14 192 20 179 8634 7528 4 156 8 187 9 191 12 196 13 183 7528 6545 4 144 8 169 6*184 7 204 7 196 6545 5673 4 134 8 160 5*183 2 223 3 207 5673 4900 5 122 8 154 2 166 2 333 2 256 4900 4205 5 118 8 151 1 135 4 353 5 317 4205 3589 5 120 7*149 1 071 7 001 8 339 3589 3074 6 137 5*146 2 047 9 003 9 345 3074 2678 6 146 4 141 2 042 9 004 9 348 2678 2405 5 157 4 136 2 037 9 003 7 350 2405 2239 4 169 3 134 2 038 8 003 4*344 2239 2144 3*187 3 132 2 037 6*004 2*321 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography