DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/22 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 77.4 - - 83.9 - - - - - 71.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 75 - - 153 - - - - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1347 - - 4824 - - - - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2128 - - 5073 - - - - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3447 - - 6924 - - - - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2167 - - 3163 - - - - - 3178 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 201 - - 374 - - - - - 15 W* B/S - - - 8 - - 4 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 17 - - - - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 285 - - 229 - - - - - 243 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 11 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - 21 - - - - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1627 - - 85 - - - - - -3842 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5074 - - 6839 - - - - - 5986 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3758 - - -874 - - - - - -7900 ODpotential blCL - - - 7205 - - 7798 - - - - - 10044 blCL maxRH - - - 96 - - 91 - - - - - 62 maxRH CAPE - - - 1040 - - 1510 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 77.4 - - 83.9 - - - - - 71.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 62.2 - - 61.0 - - - - - 52.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 76.7 - - 82.9 - - - - - 72.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 61.3 - - 60.7 - - - - - 51.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 75 - - 153 - - - - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1347 - - 4824 - - - - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 83 - - 66 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 12 - - 12 - - - - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97394 12 256 19 238 23 271 97394 90128 9 281 8 244 10 267 90128 84576 8 292 5 287 6 322 84576 79968 7 302 6 312 10 004 79968 75997 4 279 3 265 9 005 75997 72485 5 117 1 215 10 008 72485 69299 6 055 3 031 7 332 69299 66373 4 209 6 004 4 103 66373 63670 9 185 5 324 3 019 63670 61056 8 164 7 299 3 222 61056 58331 21 214 23 223 15 214 58331 55511 28 214 32 218 26 229 55511 52823 33 214 33 221 35 239 52823 50401 34 216 34 225 43 242 50401 48222 35 222 34 225 45 242 48222 46231 38 226 36 229 48 241 46231 44394 45 226 43 230 52 239 44394 42689 52 224 51 226 58 235 42689 41099 55 219 58 219 62 229 41099 39606 57 215 62 213 65 223 39606 38199 59 213 64 210 68 219 38199 36843 60 212 65 208 69 217 36843 35471 61 210 65 208 69 216 35471 34056 61 211 66 209 67 216 34056 32603 62 213 67 210 64 217 32603 31096 62 213 68 210 62 219 31096 29522 62 213 66 210 61 219 29522 27880 66 208 64 210 60 219 27880 26170 65 207 65 210 59 220 26170 24392 62 212 65 211 60 220 24392 22548 56 214 62 212 60 220 22548 20635 52 211 58 212 59 220 20635 18648 48 207 54 211 55 219 18648 16628 46 205 49 207 52 216 16628 14684 46 204 43 202 51 214 14684 12914 46 202 38 198 46 214 12914 11338 44 199 35 196 38 214 11338 9934 40 196 32 195 32 213 9934 8683 35 193 29 196 28 208 8683 7568 28 190 23*202 25 205 7568 6577 22 189 20*211 21 206 6577 5699 18 192 19 218 19 214 5699 4920 13 198 18 229 19 225 4920 4222 7 213 18 232 21 235 4222 3603 5*258 17 235 21 240 3603 3084 5*280 17 237 20 243 3084 2684 5 284 17 238 18 244 2684 2408 5 288 16 239 15 245 2408 2241 4 289 15 240 12 244 2241 2144 4 291 13 240 7*243 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography