DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.9 - - 65.1 - - 67.9 - - 67.1 - - 62.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 2 - - 173 - - 75 - - -1 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3345 - - 4119 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 4035 - - 3993 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5445 - - 6219 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 288 - - 2313 - - 2828 - - 6018 - - 2596 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 341 - - 277 - - 0 - - 3 W* B/S 1 - - 14 - - 18 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 5 - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 169 - - 191 - - 242 - - 186 - - 233 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - 3 - - -2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -438 - - 57 - - -144 - - -3873 - - -1972 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2581 - - 5389 - - 6363 - - 6017 - - 4116 sfcLCL ODpotential -3651 - - -363 - - -671 - - -5058 - - -3938 ODpotential blCL 5794 - - 5808 - - 6890 - - 7202 - - 6082 blCL maxRH 84 - - 97 - - 100 - - 91 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 30 - - 50 - - 30 - - 70 CAPE Temp@2m 53.9 - - 65.1 - - 67.9 - - 67.1 - - 62.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 49.9 - - 48.9 - - 47.4 - - 48.1 - - 52.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.9 - - 63.7 - - 67.1 - - 67.3 - - 63.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 49.9 - - 48.7 - - 47.4 - - 48.1 - - 51.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 2 - - 173 - - 75 - - -1 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3345 - - 4119 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 37 - - 87 - - 99 - - 66 - - 78 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 7 - - 8 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96560 33 269 32 277 33 253 32 283 26 284 96560 89397 15 270 22 279 20 266 27 277 26 288 89397 83860 13 286 12 286 14 287 16 276 24 285 83860 79267 10 304 9 269 10 291 6 297 11 275 79267 75305 13 315 7 274 6 322 5 356 3 266 75305 71800 12 314 10 299 8 335 3 011 5 321 71800 68642 8 325 10 287 11 307 7 298 10 331 68642 65734 11 288 15 260 11 303 4 240 8 266 65734 63032 13 272 19 236 21 262 13 247 16 243 63032 60406 15 249 24 235 26 246 18 259 15 251 60406 57643 21 249 24 246 27 248 28 258 29 249 57643 54771 38 258 39 250 39 243 41 251 38 247 54771 52033 47 252 44 248 47 241 53 249 47 250 52033 49585 51 252 47 245 52 241 58 245 53 249 49585 47403 52 255 46 247 55 245 57 248 52 247 47403 45426 55 257 57 255 59 250 58 254 54 250 45426 43613 57 258 66 254 61 253 65 254 63 251 43613 41938 65 257 72 253 69 254 74 249 72 247 41938 40384 68 254 74 252 77 253 80 248 79 246 40384 38931 61 255 75 253 83 254 83 249 86 244 38931 37569 61 260 74 252 88 253 85 250 87 239 37569 36258 60 261 72 250 87 252 87 246 84 237 36258 34928 58 260 71 250 81 248 85 241 84 239 34928 33550 57 260 71 249 76 244 81 241 79 240 33550 32129 58 260 70 248 72 242 77 240 75 240 32129 30648 57 259 67 247 71 242 73 239 72 240 30648 29096 54 256 63 246 69 242 69 239 67 240 29096 27476 51 253 59 245 64 244 65 240 59 239 27476 25786 47 252 55 244 58 247 59 244 51 237 25786 24032 40 252 49 245 53 247 52 247 45 236 24032 22213 33 250 42 243 46 246 47 246 45 237 22213 20325 27 248 36 239 42 241 45 244 46 238 20325 18363 24 249 33 236 40 240 43 241 44 240 18363 16368 23 253 28 234 37 240 39 239 37 241 16368 14450 22 252 24 229 34 238 34 241 30 238 14450 12711 20 248 21 224 30 230 25 239 23 234 12711 11167 18 249 17 224 24 223 19 230 20 221 11167 9795 16 253 13 228 18 223 20 213 22 201 9795 8572 15 252 12 230 15 224 18 208 20 198 8572 7480 14 240 11 216 9 225 15 205 16 200 7480 6507 12 225 10 212 5*228 10 197 11 199 6507 5645 8 205 8*209 4*231 6 187 7 197 5645 4880 7 190 6*196 3 236 5 179 5 193 4880 4191 7 182 5 194 3 241 4 178 4 188 4191 3580 8 173 5 191 2 244 4 178 4 187 3580 3069 9 163 4 189 2 250 4 180 2 187 3069 2675 10 161 4 186 2 251 3 182 2 208 2675 2404 10 161 4 185 2 254 3 184 2 225 2404 2238 8*163 4 184 2 253 3*184 2*238 2238 2144 4*169 3 183 2 254 3*186 2*233 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography