DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 Durango_CO 6685ft pt29606@37.028,-107.768,6634ft SPONSORED BY: Dave Piotrowski BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.9 - - 54.7 - - 61.2 - - 58.6 - - 47.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 134 - - 229 - - 0 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 113 - - 1469 - - 3521 - - 2624 - - 114 BL Depth Hcrit 6781 - - 7244 - - 8931 - - 6783 - - 6782 Hcrit BL Top 6798 - - 8154 - - 10206 - - 9309 - - 6799 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 148 - - 955 - - 2286 - - 2939 - - 241 Hgt.Variab. W* 29 - - 253 - - 397 - - 41 - - 0 W* B/S 1 - - 5 - - 21 - - 17 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 9 - - 3 - - 0 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 052 - - 083 - - 183 - - 286 - - 052 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -4 - - 3 - - 4 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3812 - - -3841 - - -2241 - - -1725 - - -1650 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10610 - - 11996 - - 12448 - - 11035 - - 8449 sfcLCL ODpotential -13310 - - -9903 - - -4876 - - -4652 - - -6717 ODpotential blCL 20108 - - 18057 - - 15082 - - 13961 - - 13516 blCL maxRH 98 - - 89 - - 87 - - 88 - - 96 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 0 - - 60 - - 50 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 41.9 - - 54.7 - - 61.2 - - 58.6 - - 47.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 19.9 - - 26.2 - - 30.4 - - 34.0 - - 34.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 43.6 - - 53.9 - - 59.7 - - 59.2 - - 51.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 19.0 - - 25.1 - - 30.0 - - 33.4 - - 33.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 134 - - 229 - - 0 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 113 - - 1469 - - 3521 - - 2624 - - 114 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 93 - - 56 - - 48 - - 51 - - 83 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97624 15 269 32 282 23 273 28 298 24 297 97624 90350 16 284 26 272 26 268 23 274 28 297 90350 84766 16 283 17 267 23 264 21 277 26 294 84766 80119 16 271 12 291 14 262 20 284 17 297 80119 76105 14 280 12 293 7 271 13 285 12 299 76105 72582 14 274 11 272 6 275 8 301 12 297 72582 69417 12 270 12 272 8 271 7 319 11 309 69417 66512 11 289 12 268 10 281 10 299 11 313 66512 63816 16 298 12 273 15 272 14 264 9 283 63816 61193 21 285 15 281 16 265 16 269 13 281 61193 58463 28 276 25 288 22 266 23 274 23 283 58463 55655 29 267 28 273 24 265 28 267 30 266 55655 52986 36 272 34 276 31 279 34 271 36 267 52986 50578 48 269 47 275 44 276 45 266 45 268 50578 48405 48 268 52 272 51 273 49 264 51 265 48405 46417 50 275 55 270 55 272 53 269 54 263 46417 44577 54 275 59 269 58 270 58 272 55 264 44577 42859 60 271 62 267 59 267 59 271 56 267 42859 41248 63 268 63 266 59 265 58 267 57 267 41248 39735 61 267 63 262 58 265 57 264 57 265 39735 38316 59 265 62 259 58 263 55 264 56 263 38316 36963 61 261 60 256 59 260 54 266 54 264 36963 35612 60 256 61 254 58 258 56 264 52 267 35612 34237 45 249 62 254 55 257 55 261 51 267 34237 32842 24 232 48 250 55 258 53 259 51 266 32842 31414 19 198 26 225 43 255 44 261 47 263 31414 29947 19 199 16 197 24 240 31 264 38 263 29947 28459 12 212 16 198 13 232 19 268 26 269 28459 26957 9 235 15 188 11 221 8 273 20 276 26957 25431 12 221 13 185 13 214 6 265 16 278 25431 23877 16 218 14 187 15 210 11 264 13 267 23877 22289 19 224 16 204 14 217 11 253 14 253 22289 20663 21 224 20 223 13 229 9 245 16 248 20663 19027 25 219 21 237 15 236 11 256 13 254 19027 17463 26 212 22 246 18 242 13 260 12 262 17463 16044 26 217 22 246 20 247 16 262 11 262 16044 14775 20 218 21 245 20 251 18 259 12 262 14775 13634 14 211 19 247 20 255 19 253 12 258 13634 12603 9 206 17 246 17 255 17 251 12 249 12603 11667 5 212 14 244 13 251 14 252 11 241 11667 10820 4 246 11 244 10*242 10 254 9 230 10820 10056 5 272 6 244 5*213 5 257 7 214 10056 9366 5 288 0 326 3 187 2*262 5 198 9366 8735 4 325 6 070 3 180 1*264 4 176 8735 8167 4 010 9*080 3 178 1 272 4 146 8167 7685 4 038 9*083 3 174 0 296 5 106 7685 7310 5 069 9 083 3 173 0 330 8 083 7310 7049 8 070 9 084 3 172 0 016 9 071 7049 6890 7*060 8 084 3 172 0 008 7*057 6890 6799 5*052 7 085 3 171 0 039 6*052 6799 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography