DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/08 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.7 - - 53.1 - - 58.0 - - 55.2 - - 45.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 196 - - 362 - - 163 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2326 - - 3951 - - 3586 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 4670 - - 6114 - - 5500 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5729 - - 7354 - - 6989 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 482 - - 1041 - - 1224 - - 1532 - - 3214 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 318 - - 466 - - 346 - - 0 W* B/S 2 - - 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 10 - - 16 - - 17 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 071 - - 297 - - 289 - - 288 - - 264 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 5 - - 13 - - 11 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1601 - - -1843 - - -817 - - -248 - - -922 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5158 - - 7572 - - 8171 - - 7237 - - 4479 sfcLCL ODpotential -11229 - - -7376 - - -4130 - - -2806 - - -2786 ODpotential blCL 14786 - - 13105 - - 11484 - - 9795 - - 6343 blCL maxRH 55 - - 65 - - 68 - - 80 - - 85 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 39.7 - - 53.1 - - 58.0 - - 55.2 - - 45.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.9 - - 32.5 - - 34.5 - - 35.8 - - 37.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 45.2 - - 51.6 - - 55.7 - - 54.0 - - 47.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.0 - - 32.4 - - 34.4 - - 35.8 - - 38.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 196 - - 362 - - 163 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2326 - - 3951 - - 3586 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 21 - - 42 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96180 21 066 16 059 12 070 14 071 18 042 96180 89106 11 063 12 069 10 062 14 042 15 055 89106 83609 14 069 11 078 7 043 12 025 12 051 83609 79004 10 009 8 070 6 350 14 355 12 059 79004 75012 4 349 8 036 4 312 8 308 13 336 75012 71487 13 339 16 005 10 311 21 293 16 325 71487 68314 26 318 20 340 14 298 15 284 19 348 68314 65370 20 326 15 357 13 327 21 314 30 326 65370 62644 17 331 30 325 28 312 32 309 28 307 62644 60018 29 323 35 305 32 301 34 300 27 301 60018 57262 35 315 27 302 28 301 36 300 35 298 57262 54385 26 302 35 308 39 304 43 301 44 288 54385 51639 23 289 48 301 51 295 49 297 47 286 51639 49160 35 293 54 297 58 290 55 294 55 290 49160 46927 43 294 59 291 64 287 65 290 67 291 46927 44895 48 297 62 285 69 284 71 283 74 285 44895 43044 56 300 66 286 72 285 69 284 75 282 43044 41355 66 298 73 290 76 290 76 297 77 289 41355 39809 74 294 78 292 85 290 93 295 95 296 39809 38382 76 291 77 289 82 283 95 286 103 294 38382 37042 74 291 75 289 76 284 89 283 102 289 37042 35749 69 293 73 292 80 300 84 295 100 285 35749 34444 67 298 71 294 84 302 87 303 97 285 34444 33101 68 302 72 298 85 301 88 299 88 287 33101 31723 71 303 74 300 88 301 87 294 79 292 31723 30296 72 303 73 299 89 301 85 294 77 293 30296 28812 72 301 70 297 87 301 85 294 77 291 28812 27271 70 297 66 296 84 301 84 292 77 288 27271 25673 66 292 62 294 76 296 78 288 77 284 25673 24018 63 290 58 291 68 289 73 284 77 281 24018 22311 60 289 56 289 63 284 69 282 73 282 22311 20548 57 288 55 287 58 283 64 282 65 284 20548 18730 53 289 54 286 54 284 56 286 56 287 18730 16887 47 290 50 287 49 286 48 290 48 289 16887 15115 41 289 43 288 45 289 42 294 44 291 15115 13501 37 289 38 289 41 292 38 295 42 293 13501 12060 33 288 35 289 37 293 35 295 39 294 12060 10773 31 288 33 289 34 292 31 293 37 294 10773 9624 30 288 31 289 30 290 28 291 33 293 9624 8599 29 287 29 288 25 286 24 289 30 291 8599 7687 29 285 27 288 18*283 19*287 27 289 7687 6879 28 284 23 287 17*284 18*287 24 286 6879 6160 26 282 17*288 16 285 18 287 21 281 6160 5511 23 279 12*291 16 288 18 288 18 276 5511 4931 18 276 11 295 16 290 18 288 16 270 4931 4444 11 278 10 297 16 291 17 289 14 265 4444 4067 6 299 10 299 15 292 17 289 12 265 4067 3807 3 338 9 300 15 293 17 289 10 267 3807 3648 2*356 9 301 14 293 16 290 8*267 3648 3557 1*071 8 301 12 294 13 290 5*264 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography