DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/08 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 45.3 - - 48.7 - - 52.9 - - 52.1 - - 45.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 60 - - 111 - - 6 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2448 - - 3642 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 5311 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5851 - - 7045 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3310 - - 2127 - - 2017 - - 5968 - - 680 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 218 - - 306 - - 42 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 6 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 7 - - 10 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 213 - - 257 - - 249 - - 331 - - 353 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 7 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -809 - - 165 - - -510 - - -3468 - - -2184 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4366 - - 5687 - - 7555 - - 7025 - - 5741 sfcLCL ODpotential -2218 - - -583 - - -1668 - - -4532 - - -6128 ODpotential blCL 5775 - - 6434 - - 8713 - - 8089 - - 9685 blCL maxRH 100 - - 98 - - 96 - - 99 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 45.3 - - 48.7 - - 52.9 - - 52.1 - - 45.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.7 - - 36.3 - - 32.4 - - 33.9 - - 33.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 45.8 - - 48.0 - - 51.9 - - 51.9 - - 47.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.6 - - 36.2 - - 32.3 - - 33.8 - - 32.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 60 - - 111 - - 6 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2448 - - 3642 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 90 - - 84 - - 98 - - 94 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95894 33 281 28 296 32 290 35 287 40 294 95894 89004 23 294 24 297 21 296 23 292 27 296 89004 83631 17 321 18 299 17 300 12 313 18 290 83631 79125 21 309 13 319 15 300 16 304 15 278 79125 75195 19 278 9 286 14 284 17 269 10 296 75195 71669 6 257 8 305 12 293 15 278 16 304 71669 68450 23 276 21 273 26 279 28 279 28 284 68450 65490 26 256 24 253 30 248 28 264 31 273 65490 62747 27 262 26 259 28 257 24 268 27 264 62747 60084 42 270 38 269 35 267 34 280 29 267 60084 57303 49 264 46 270 46 266 45 270 39 267 57303 54422 52 260 49 266 51 266 49 271 45 267 54422 51689 51 258 53 263 58 268 56 273 52 267 51689 49249 55 270 59 263 62 263 62 269 55 266 49249 47075 71 271 69 266 70 263 72 262 62 264 47075 45111 79 263 75 265 77 261 76 258 71 259 45111 43322 78 259 78 262 84 262 82 259 79 256 43322 41684 80 260 83 261 95 266 94 262 88 256 41684 40163 84 260 85 262 101 268 101 262 96 257 40163 38735 87 261 82 262 100 267 100 261 98 256 38735 37389 89 261 81 261 97 266 98 261 97 257 37389 36092 89 262 84 260 95 266 98 261 97 257 36092 34782 88 262 85 257 94 266 98 261 97 258 34782 33429 86 260 80 254 93 266 97 262 97 259 33429 32036 80 257 77 254 91 266 96 264 96 261 32036 30593 75 256 80 258 88 265 90 264 91 263 30593 29091 73 256 83 259 84 263 83 263 83 264 29091 27533 70 257 82 257 76 263 79 263 76 266 27533 25917 67 258 78 256 72 260 75 262 74 266 25917 24242 65 258 72 258 71 255 72 260 72 264 24242 22513 64 258 67 262 65 253 71 259 69 262 22513 20725 63 257 65 265 58 255 70 260 66 260 20725 18874 61 254 63 260 54 259 62 259 60 259 18874 16994 59 251 62 253 52 262 50 257 53 257 16994 15190 59 252 55 253 49 264 39 257 45 255 15190 13552 59 253 46 259 42 265 32 260 36 250 13552 12101 55 250 43 261 33 263 25 255 31 242 12101 10812 49 247 43 256 29 259 23 245 31 234 10812 9662 39 251 40 253 27 254 20 239 27 227 9662 8636 27 263 34 256 23 252 16 238 19 220 8636 7719 19 282 26 260 16*250 11 238 12 211 7719 6904 16 291 18 262 12*247 7 244 8 201 6904 6177 13 289 13*261 11 248 5 259 5 191 6177 5521 11 277 9*259 10 248 4 292 2 144 5521 4937 9 259 7 257 10 249 4 314 4 088 4937 4447 9 245 7 256 9 249 4 321 6 061 4447 4068 7 236 6 255 9 250 4 325 7 040 4068 3807 6 227 6 256 9 251 4 328 7 027 3807 3648 5*217 6 256 8 251 4*329 4*011 3648 3557 3*213 5 255 7 251 4*331 3*353 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography