DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/09 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1002z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.0 - - 53.3 - - 55.9 - - 53.1 - - 46.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -31 - - 74 - - 10 - - -20 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1732 - - 155 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5135 - - 3558 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 101 - - 1652 - - 4931 - - 3410 - - 335 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 209 - - 49 - - 23 - - 11 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 12 - - 10 - - 10 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 149 - - 225 - - 226 - - 235 - - 179 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -11 - - -4 - - -2 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1 - - -1500 - - -2709 - - -1173 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3557 - - 6635 - - 6268 - - 4730 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -7718 - - -4887 - - -3897 - - -2830 - - -3256 ODpotential blCL 11275 - - 10022 - - 7455 - - 6387 - - 6813 blCL maxRH 88 - - 86 - - 100 - - 96 - - 83 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 120 - - 40 CAPE Temp@2m 39.0 - - 53.3 - - 55.9 - - 53.1 - - 46.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.9 - - 36.7 - - 40.7 - - 44.6 - - 43.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.7 - - 52.5 - - 55.7 - - 53.7 - - 48.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.8 - - 36.7 - - 40.7 - - 44.4 - - 43.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -31 - - 74 - - 10 - - -20 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1732 - - 155 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 50 - - 43 - - 99 - - 83 - - 30 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96039 31 297 33 287 36 293 36 294 37 291 96039 89179 21 298 22 298 25 294 26 298 26 301 89179 83817 12 284 16 292 18 302 18 298 23 292 83817 79308 16 289 15 288 17 297 10 301 17 309 79308 75371 17 283 8 279 15 281 18 282 19 303 75371 71854 17 264 8 305 15 281 19 267 22 288 71854 68663 25 277 18 305 14 310 14 298 18 297 68663 65709 29 269 26 286 22 309 21 308 20 305 65709 62939 23 266 29 266 31 279 35 287 32 291 62939 60254 20 280 27 263 33 268 34 279 37 283 60254 57472 32 279 24 273 28 275 26 288 30 286 57472 54589 41 275 30 285 30 289 34 296 27 295 54589 51824 47 271 36 283 38 289 42 288 35 290 51824 49323 51 266 44 272 45 278 46 286 42 286 49323 47076 54 261 52 264 51 272 50 280 44 284 47076 45033 59 257 55 259 56 264 53 274 50 282 45033 43162 66 253 58 254 59 254 57 267 62 271 43162 41441 78 251 68 248 64 248 61 258 65 263 41441 39859 92 247 80 244 70 244 63 253 66 265 39859 38399 101 244 89 242 74 241 65 251 69 266 38399 37042 106 242 96 240 77 240 68 250 68 263 37042 35742 109 243 100 240 78 241 70 248 65 262 35742 34434 109 244 100 241 78 241 69 246 64 262 34434 33089 107 246 99 241 80 240 68 245 62 262 33089 31712 101 247 96 240 82 238 66 245 58 268 31712 30290 91 248 87 240 84 234 65 244 58 278 30290 28813 82 250 76 242 81 234 63 244 62 286 28813 27283 75 249 67 244 75 237 62 245 63 288 27283 25699 68 247 62 246 66 240 59 247 61 287 25699 24062 62 247 58 247 58 239 55 249 56 283 24062 22374 59 249 54 248 54 235 50 251 51 275 22374 20629 55 251 51 247 48 234 48 253 49 269 20629 18820 51 253 50 244 45 239 46 254 49 269 18820 16981 47 255 50 242 45 246 45 255 48 270 16981 15208 43 257 48 242 45 251 43 257 46 268 15208 13590 41 257 45 244 47 251 43 259 45 264 13590 12146 39 255 40 246 51 251 42 260 44 261 12146 10856 38 254 35 250 52 249 42 261 44 260 10856 9701 37 253 33 252 48 245 41 260 45 260 9701 8668 36 253 32 252 43 240 41 259 45 259 8668 7745 36 252 30 250 37 233 41 256 46 256 7745 6924 35 251 28 246 31 228 39 252 45 252 6924 6194 31 247 25 242 27 225 37 249 43 248 6194 5535 26 243 20*235 24 224 34 246 39 244 5535 4947 20 237 15*229 21 224 30 243 35 239 4947 4453 12 225 13 226 19 225 25 241 29 233 4453 4072 8 195 12 223 17 225 22 239 22 225 4072 3809 8 162 11 222 15 225 18 238 16 211 3809 3649 9*154 10 222 13*225 15 236 12*194 3649 3557 7*149 8 222 10*226 10*235 7*179 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography