DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 02/24 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.7 - - 46.4 - - 50.8 - - 49.1 - - 43.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -10 - - 15 - - 40 - - -4 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2257 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 3541 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 5660 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 759 - - 2239 - - 2347 - - 4136 - - 1899 Hgt.Variab. W* 20 - - 61 - - 207 - - 43 - - 10 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 8 - - 21 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 141 - - 241 - - 246 - - 248 - - 185 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - 5 - - -1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -132 - - 1243 - - -808 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 3689 - - 4417 - - 4366 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -2980 - - -1345 - - -421 - - -1888 - - -2789 ODpotential blCL 6536 - - 4902 - - 6081 - - 5445 - - 6346 blCL maxRH 100 - - 97 - - 92 - - 96 - - 92 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 0 - - 50 - - 30 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.7 - - 46.4 - - 50.8 - - 49.1 - - 43.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.6 - - 42.3 - - 43.5 - - 42.1 - - 40.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 41.5 - - 46.1 - - 50.5 - - 49.1 - - 46.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.1 - - 41.3 - - 42.3 - - 41.0 - - 39.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -10 - - 15 - - 40 - - -4 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2257 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 99 - - 89 - - 70 - - 85 - - 68 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96731 28 074 16 098 19 087 21 086 21 092 96731 89513 19 075 9 102 14 070 13 068 12 083 89513 83917 13 053 11 130 3 299 11 010 11 045 83917 79264 8 000 12 040 5 201 10 321 8 356 79264 75255 7 318 15 343 9 327 11 345 8 304 75255 71703 10 320 12 309 18 286 20 318 10 320 71703 68476 21 312 10 308 20 259 22 286 20 290 68476 65515 28 307 16 307 16 303 20 302 16 301 65515 62764 35 301 31 302 40 303 32 297 19 316 62764 60065 48 289 50 282 54 285 43 287 43 293 60065 57242 56 270 46 271 50 274 50 278 58 282 57242 54343 48 269 45 282 51 276 58 281 64 280 54343 51596 59 279 66 281 69 273 76 277 74 283 51596 49114 74 276 80 272 82 271 85 273 86 279 49114 46877 77 278 74 270 91 272 93 273 92 275 46877 44846 90 282 87 282 93 271 102 271 97 274 44846 42998 121 281 126 282 99 275 104 270 104 271 42998 41322 143 278 142 278 120 276 124 271 120 268 41322 39792 141 275 137 276 132 271 149 269 145 269 39792 38366 144 274 142 274 123 267 147 266 161 269 38366 37019 149 273 144 273 123 265 143 266 162 270 37019 35716 148 276 140 273 127 266 147 267 164 270 35716 34394 143 279 133 275 136 268 153 270 168 271 34394 33027 132 280 120 276 139 271 153 272 159 273 33027 31627 112 277 106 271 124 272 137 273 129 272 31627 30183 99 270 101 262 102 265 112 271 107 268 30183 28685 98 265 103 259 102 258 100 267 103 266 28685 27135 98 261 100 259 103 255 93 262 100 267 27135 25530 98 260 95 259 91 255 91 264 96 269 25530 23875 92 262 95 260 86 258 87 268 89 270 23875 22174 86 267 95 261 82 260 82 270 84 271 22174 20420 82 270 89 260 76 261 76 270 80 272 20420 18610 76 266 77 258 73 265 69 269 75 275 18610 16778 67 261 59 257 68 272 64 269 67 277 16778 15020 55 259 47 264 56 274 57 271 56 276 15020 13424 43 263 45 274 45 274 48 273 48 274 13424 12006 39 267 42 278 36 277 40 276 45 269 12006 10743 41 268 39 276 31 278 37 277 45 264 10743 9610 46 267 35 273 30 274 37 274 45 263 9610 8595 50 264 31 272 30 267 36 270 44 264 8595 7687 50 261 29 270 31 261 34 266 43 266 7687 6879 45 256 29 266 30 255 32 262 40 268 6879 6158 39 250 28 262 29*251 29 258 36 269 6158 5508 32 243 26 257 26*247 27 255 32 268 5508 4929 23 236 22 251 23 246 23 252 26 264 4929 4442 15 226 17 246 22 246 20 250 20 258 4442 4066 10 194 14 244 20 246 18 249 14 251 4066 3806 9 160 11 242 18 246 16 249 9 238 3806 3648 8 149 9*241 16 246 14*248 6*219 3648 3557 5*141 8*241 13 246 10*248 4*185 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography