DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 11/11 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.8 - - 58.4 - - 69.4 - - 64.1 - - 51.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -23 - - 35 - - 115 - - -16 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 314 - - 3617 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 5318 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3717 - - 7020 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 73 - - 1291 - - 1772 - - 4637 - - 228 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 92 - - 309 - - 8 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 3 - - 10 - - 5 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 117 - - 194 - - 206 - - 163 - - 157 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - 9 - - -4 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4296 - - -8130 - - -7805 - - -10483 - - -5796 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7853 - - 11847 - - 14826 - - 14042 - - 9353 sfcLCL ODpotential -14390 - - -14786 - - -12312 - - -16139 - - -14105 ODpotential blCL 17947 - - 18503 - - 19332 - - 19697 - - 17662 blCL maxRH 77 - - 74 - - 76 - - 75 - - 69 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.8 - - 58.4 - - 69.4 - - 64.1 - - 51.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.9 - - 19.5 - - 16.6 - - 15.3 - - 23.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.3 - - 57.9 - - 68.2 - - 67.3 - - 56.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.7 - - 19.3 - - 16.3 - - 15.0 - - 23.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -23 - - 35 - - 115 - - -16 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 314 - - 3617 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 7 - - 0 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96319 22 305 22 295 25 303 27 305 28 297 96319 89371 18 287 13 291 26 291 20 309 21 292 89371 83974 9 310 6 277 20 294 9 319 14 299 83974 79432 12 306 9 309 17 289 7 302 13 291 79432 75477 11 276 9 318 7 274 6 315 12 292 75477 71962 10 257 14 289 6 332 7 275 13 296 71962 68759 12 258 18 251 12 269 17 261 15 293 68759 65805 6 178 6 210 4 202 13 247 6 287 65805 63063 18 285 9 271 3 194 9 225 14 268 63063 60419 33 272 25 245 23 238 16 240 21 258 60419 57679 37 263 22 248 31 243 29 243 34 236 57679 54829 37 267 27 257 40 245 47 240 45 240 54829 52102 48 266 48 249 56 239 57 236 61 239 52102 49656 54 264 54 245 60 237 57 237 63 236 49656 47471 60 263 62 253 61 246 64 250 63 242 47471 45491 70 261 76 256 74 254 84 254 81 252 45491 43677 76 255 81 252 85 250 91 246 99 247 43677 42005 71 252 77 250 87 243 88 241 95 237 42005 40447 66 258 72 254 79 246 84 245 87 239 40447 38990 73 268 77 260 83 255 83 247 86 245 38990 37626 81 270 85 261 86 254 80 244 84 238 37626 36318 81 267 83 257 80 249 78 243 80 232 36318 35000 73 262 73 251 75 244 75 239 77 230 35000 33640 63 254 65 247 67 241 71 236 74 228 33640 32246 56 246 63 244 61 239 65 235 67 228 32246 30804 51 245 58 241 59 236 60 231 62 228 30804 29302 48 244 53 239 54 229 57 225 60 225 29302 27741 46 242 49 239 50 226 54 221 57 222 27741 26123 44 239 46 239 46 224 51 219 52 220 26123 24451 42 237 45 236 45 221 48 218 46 218 24451 22730 40 236 43 232 44 219 45 216 42 216 22730 20950 39 237 42 229 43 218 43 216 40 215 20950 19104 38 239 42 227 43 219 41 216 39 212 19104 17224 37 238 41 226 43 220 39 217 38 208 17224 15413 34 236 39 225 42 220 37 217 37 205 15413 13763 30 233 36 224 40 219 36 216 36 204 13763 12293 27 230 33 224 38 217 34 217 34 206 12293 10980 26 229 32 224 35 217 32 218 31 209 10980 9806 26 230 30 224 32 217 28 217 28 211 9806 8757 27 230 29 225 28 218 23 215 26 211 8757 7818 28 230 28 225 21*217 18 209 24 207 7818 6984 29 228 27 226 15*212 16 203 22 202 6984 6239 29 226 25 226 12 208 15 196 21 196 6239 5567 27 225 21 229 11 205 15 190 21 190 5567 4968 21 227 16 232 10 204 15 185 22 181 4968 4465 13 228 10 228 9 202 14 180 22 171 4465 4078 8 203 7 215 8 202 13 175 23 163 4078 3812 7 154 4*198 8 202 11 170 15 162 3812 3650 7*123 3*195 7 201 8*166 11 159 3650 3557 7*117 3 194 7 202 5*163 6*157 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography