DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/14 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.6 - - 51.9 - - 56.9 - - 54.6 - - 44.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 99 - - 178 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2503 - - 4376 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 4448 - - 6135 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5906 - - 7779 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 213 - - 2168 - - 1359 - - 4523 - - 1908 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 263 - - 382 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 14 - - 15 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 156 - - 238 - - 250 - - 272 - - 126 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 9 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -2 - - 1 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1 - - -846 - - -920 - - -4802 - - -1539 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3557 - - 6752 - - 8700 - - 8359 - - 5097 sfcLCL ODpotential -2856 - - -2895 - - -7941 - - -11943 - - -9998 ODpotential blCL 6413 - - 8801 - - 15720 - - 15500 - - 13555 blCL maxRH 80 - - 72 - - 85 - - 81 - - 73 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 39.6 - - 51.9 - - 56.9 - - 54.6 - - 44.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.8 - - 34.6 - - 31.0 - - 30.4 - - 34.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.5 - - 50.9 - - 55.5 - - 55.3 - - 49.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.8 - - 34.1 - - 30.9 - - 30.4 - - 34.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 99 - - 178 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2503 - - 4376 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 20 - - 0 - - 41 - - 26 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96589 46 060 49 056 49 065 59 060 52 067 96589 89641 42 058 38 057 44 068 46 060 48 066 89641 84167 28 049 29 062 24 065 32 054 38 060 84167 79598 16 044 17 048 17 062 15 044 26 042 79598 75653 11 022 12 039 9 033 10 022 10 030 75653 72135 13 009 10 010 12 356 10 356 9 019 72135 68925 11 339 7 337 15 320 13 335 14 341 68925 65970 15 299 12 307 17 295 10 305 14 321 65970 63222 20 285 17 282 20 273 18 298 18 301 63222 60551 26 273 22 264 24 265 25 288 22 286 60551 57760 27 273 22 258 22 265 26 279 25 280 57760 54870 30 278 23 272 24 270 28 267 25 293 54870 52135 33 272 26 274 23 275 26 262 28 294 52135 49698 29 269 27 284 23 280 28 258 25 269 49698 47521 27 283 28 288 27 322 14 294 16 253 47521 45548 31 294 32 311 31 319 21 332 13 314 45548 43745 32 293 33 304 32 312 22 317 10 297 43745 42079 22 297 26 288 27 288 17 314 5 341 42079 40523 17 336 15 288 18 304 27 356 21 007 40523 39070 29 359 26 355 38 001 41 358 31 008 39070 37709 42 002 55 003 55 000 50 002 32 010 37709 36399 63 004 75 002 60 002 56 006 31 008 36399 35073 88 007 85 002 61 006 57 007 30 006 35073 33704 90 007 84 003 62 007 52 009 27 005 33704 32297 73 006 82 005 65 006 44 005 24 001 32297 30838 58 004 77 006 64 005 42 357 22 354 30838 29315 55 001 63 004 61 001 42 354 23 348 29315 27733 53 359 50 001 59 359 39 356 24 347 27733 26094 37 348 46 354 53 001 34 001 24 346 26094 24401 25 322 34 347 44 359 29 002 21 346 24401 22655 22 299 23 323 30 354 24 357 15 341 22655 20849 21 277 22 314 25 321 18 347 12 323 20849 18975 23 258 22 300 23 305 19 321 14 317 18975 17072 29 249 24 261 23 277 25 288 18 320 17072 15246 35 242 25 256 27 260 27 271 19 293 15246 13593 35 239 27 255 28 257 27 265 23 257 13593 12130 32 241 30 250 30 253 31 261 26 260 12130 10828 30 245 30 246 33 252 34 258 27 264 10828 9668 30 247 29 243 31 251 34 256 28 267 9668 8634 29 249 27 243 24*248 30 253 29 266 8634 7715 27 250 26 243 17*246 23 249 29 264 7715 6900 24 253 24 242 16 247 18 248 27 261 6900 6175 22 254 21*240 16 249 15 251 24 258 6175 5521 19 250 18*238 15 250 14 254 19 256 5521 4939 13 240 16 237 15 251 12 258 14 253 4939 4448 5 211 15 238 14 252 11 264 10 249 4448 4070 4 159 13 238 13 253 10 268 5 246 4070 3808 5 149 12 238 13 254 9 271 1 225 3808 3649 6*153 11 239 12 254 8 272 2*130 3649 3557 5*156 10 240 11 255 5*272 3*126 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography