DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/07 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 38.2 - - 49.7 - - 52.9 - - 49.7 - - 40.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -48 - - 47 - - 78 - - -10 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 882 - - 2931 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 4518 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 4285 - - 6334 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 170 - - 3044 - - 1664 - - 4253 - - 205 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 143 - - 253 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 16 - - 24 - - 3 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 167 - - 244 - - 263 - - 229 - - 248 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -7 - - 22 - - -1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -869 - - -1113 - - -250 - - -2130 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4426 - - 5398 - - 6584 - - 5687 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -7227 - - -2198 - - -1917 - - -3693 - - -3673 ODpotential blCL 10784 - - 6483 - - 8251 - - 7250 - - 7230 blCL maxRH 91 - - 91 - - 88 - - 84 - - 74 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 38.2 - - 49.7 - - 52.9 - - 49.7 - - 40.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.5 - - 38.5 - - 36.6 - - 37.3 - - 37.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 41.6 - - 49.3 - - 52.3 - - 50.5 - - 43.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.5 - - 38.4 - - 36.5 - - 37.3 - - 37.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -48 - - 47 - - 78 - - -10 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 882 - - 2931 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 65 - - 64 - - 54 - - 35 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96528 22 090 24 092 15 068 20 050 22 048 96528 89342 22 078 17 077 14 066 14 035 23 042 89342 83789 22 049 17 070 19 076 15 060 14 021 83789 79174 18 032 17 071 15 049 23 063 21 068 79174 75167 19 010 17 060 15 035 25 040 22 054 75167 71584 13 359 10 011 13 347 20 355 18 061 71584 68345 20 007 16 350 15 348 14 331 18 328 68345 65394 34 326 29 319 23 327 23 314 17 329 65394 62662 35 305 29 311 28 303 24 310 11 329 62662 59992 32 314 29 308 25 299 21 315 18 315 59992 57203 36 311 38 304 27 300 35 317 35 311 57203 54309 49 302 49 303 46 297 54 305 48 310 54309 51547 57 298 55 299 55 299 60 302 57 308 51547 49072 60 297 58 295 59 300 57 300 61 305 49072 46860 65 295 63 296 60 300 54 298 60 304 46860 44859 73 293 68 292 62 298 51 297 63 304 44859 43030 76 289 69 289 63 295 52 299 66 302 43030 41347 78 289 71 291 66 293 55 301 64 299 41347 39788 86 294 78 293 72 290 57 303 58 299 39788 38339 98 296 86 293 79 286 59 304 53 302 38339 36986 103 292 93 290 84 287 61 304 51 308 36986 35693 102 290 99 287 87 290 62 303 51 313 35693 34391 101 291 102 285 88 289 63 300 53 317 34391 33051 101 293 96 287 88 287 65 298 55 320 33051 31676 102 293 87 289 86 287 69 297 56 322 31676 30255 97 293 79 290 83 288 72 295 57 324 30255 28777 86 293 72 290 79 289 73 292 56 324 28777 27243 73 296 70 291 75 288 72 289 55 323 27243 25654 62 301 68 291 71 288 70 291 53 321 25654 24013 57 303 64 289 67 287 68 294 53 319 24013 22321 52 303 60 287 64 286 64 297 53 317 22321 20573 47 299 56 286 60 285 60 297 54 315 20573 18760 44 296 51 287 55 287 56 298 53 312 18760 16917 46 295 45 289 48 291 51 298 52 311 16917 15142 50 292 39 290 40 294 45 297 50 311 15142 13525 50 290 38 292 36 296 40 297 47 311 13525 12081 50 288 38 294 37 298 37 295 44 309 12081 10793 49 287 40 292 39 296 36 292 41 306 10793 9641 48 286 41 288 40 292 36 290 38 299 9641 8613 47 283 42 281 40 285 34 288 36 293 8613 7698 45 280 41 275 38 278 31 286 35 286 7698 6886 42 275 39 271 34*272 28 282 35 280 6886 6163 38 269 35 267 30*267 24 279 35 276 6163 5511 33 261 31 263 28 265 19 275 33 273 5511 4931 27 250 27 257 25 263 15 270 30 271 4931 4443 23 239 23*252 23 261 11 263 26 267 4443 4066 17 226 19*247 21 260 8 255 21 263 4066 3806 12 204 16 243 19 259 6 246 17 259 3806 3647 10*178 15 242 17 259 5*238 13*256 3647 3557 8*167 12 241 14 259 3*229 6*248 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography