DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/07 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 50.1 - - 72.1 - - 82.6 - - 80.5 - - 63.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 135 - - 239 - - 47 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 805 - - 2734 - - 1884 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3542 - - 5044 - - 3542 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 4208 - - 6137 - - 5287 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 70 - - 810 - - 4169 - - 4093 - - 265 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 197 - - 359 - - 184 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 72 - - 13 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 0 - - 5 - - 10 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 173 - - 170 - - 349 - - 007 - - 305 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -4 - - -6 - - 5 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5641 - - -8791 - - -8794 - - -9254 - - -6646 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9198 - - 13000 - - 14932 - - 14541 - - 10204 sfcLCL ODpotential -15951 - - -14376 - - -12233 - - -13223 - - -14172 ODpotential blCL 19508 - - 18584 - - 18370 - - 18510 - - 17730 blCL maxRH 31 - - 31 - - 32 - - 36 - - 36 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 50.1 - - 72.1 - - 82.6 - - 80.5 - - 63.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 23.6 - - 28.1 - - 29.3 - - 29.1 - - 31.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.4 - - 70.8 - - 80.6 - - 79.8 - - 67.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 23.6 - - 28.0 - - 29.1 - - 29.0 - - 31.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 135 - - 239 - - 47 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 805 - - 2734 - - 1884 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97957 22 061 14 062 19 046 17 047 21 056 97957 90747 18 084 15 079 18 061 22 057 25 065 90747 85094 26 070 16 089 10 076 20 054 22 072 85094 80381 22 033 20 072 5 112 14 015 21 038 80381 76364 14 007 19 038 6 090 7 349 17 001 76364 72858 19 347 18 356 14 024 10 036 9 359 72858 69685 18 328 16 336 17 347 17 009 10 353 69685 66745 19 320 16 330 16 319 19 341 13 331 66745 64000 21 322 15 323 18 297 22 312 21 311 64000 61333 24 321 18 313 21 296 25 302 27 304 61333 58561 26 314 23 306 23 303 29 304 29 306 58561 55706 27 309 26 302 25 307 32 303 30 306 55706 52996 26 304 25 301 27 309 32 305 32 307 52996 50560 25 302 21 297 28 308 32 308 36 308 50560 48372 24 302 17 298 25 306 30 307 39 306 48372 46379 24 306 17 309 22 312 28 313 38 303 46379 44542 22 308 16 314 22 318 30 320 37 307 44542 42832 19 303 15 314 22 317 30 324 35 312 42832 41230 15 298 12 314 19 321 29 330 32 320 41230 39729 11 307 5 339 11 314 24 328 28 327 39729 38321 8 319 4 024 4 343 15 326 25 333 38321 36972 6 354 4 054 6 037 10 347 22 319 36972 35614 4 009 3 082 4 046 11 009 15 311 35614 34222 2 202 2 083 6 042 13 014 8 355 34222 32796 8 178 2 145 7 035 13 024 14 022 32796 31323 10 165 7 160 3 066 12 040 17 031 31323 29790 11 173 8 173 1 139 6 062 14 039 29790 28200 8 192 6 200 3 295 2 041 9 044 28200 26558 7 228 5 259 7 315 5 317 3 065 26558 24862 7 246 8 303 9 330 6 316 2 311 24862 23110 7 261 10 318 12 325 10 320 8 309 23110 21297 6 276 12 315 15 311 15 315 15 302 21297 19416 5 277 11 306 14 305 15 309 17 296 19416 17505 6 271 10 285 13 295 13 298 17 292 17505 15663 8 268 11 266 12 277 12 286 15 288 15663 13985 10 263 11 265 12 263 14 274 15 279 13985 12487 12 261 12 269 13 258 15 261 15 266 12487 11148 14 262 13 270 14 257 14 254 14 254 11148 9947 15 262 13 266 14 255 13 256 12 250 9947 8870 14 258 13 259 13 252 12 262 9 260 8870 7908 12 247 13 250 11 253 9 274 7 277 7908 7053 10 231 12 242 8 258 7 294 5 307 7053 6292 8 211 10 234 5*278 6 323 6 332 6292 5606 7 195 8 225 4*316 7*359 6 357 5606 4997 5 180 6 216 5 348 10*008 9 018 4997 4485 4 178 3*206 5 352 10 008 11 017 4485 4091 3 185 1*174 6 354 10 007 11 007 4091 3818 3 188 1 170 6 355 10 008 10 346 3818 3653 5*177 0 163 6 355 10 007 8 318 3653 3558 5*173 0 158 5 356 8 007 6*305 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography