DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/04 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.2 - - 75.6 - - 86.6 - - 85.6 - - 69.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -21 - - 132 - - 231 - - 37 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 155 - - 887 - - 4819 - - 156 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 3542 - - 6593 - - 3543 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 3558 - - 4290 - - 8222 - - 3559 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 91 - - 1080 - - 3130 - - 8633 - - 455 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 202 - - 428 - - 74 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 14 - - 15 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 5 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 169 - - 150 - - 256 - - 351 - - 327 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -4 - - -2 - - 4 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4722 - - -10399 - - -9191 - - -13474 - - -8240 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8280 - - 14690 - - 17414 - - 17033 - - 11799 sfcLCL ODpotential -14678 - - -15586 - - -12595 - - -17060 - - -14868 ODpotential blCL 18236 - - 19876 - - 20817 - - 20619 - - 18426 blCL maxRH 57 - - 77 - - 88 - - 88 - - 76 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 53.2 - - 75.6 - - 86.6 - - 85.6 - - 69.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.4 - - 24.1 - - 21.8 - - 22.7 - - 30.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.9 - - 74.4 - - 84.8 - - 85.0 - - 73.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.3 - - 24.0 - - 21.7 - - 22.6 - - 30.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -21 - - 132 - - 231 - - 37 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 155 - - 887 - - 4819 - - 156 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 10 - - 51 - - 53 - - 5 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97766 14 067 12 103 2 103 17 041 14 070 97766 90600 11 069 10 059 7 077 17 044 17 074 90600 85049 12 030 9 059 6 074 10 014 15 047 85049 80425 15 020 10 036 6 053 6 009 9 003 80425 76447 15 352 11 357 11 014 5 027 7 352 76447 72929 13 330 12 342 15 360 8 351 13 340 72929 69734 14 321 13 339 13 350 9 335 13 332 69734 66785 14 316 17 322 16 324 13 324 15 335 66785 64042 16 308 20 302 19 306 17 312 21 319 64042 61381 16 294 20 287 22 300 19 300 23 299 61381 58596 17 288 17 282 22 281 21 295 19 287 58596 55691 20 273 20 271 25 267 26 283 20 282 55691 52907 24 266 23 263 29 257 30 272 24 281 52907 50403 26 245 23 252 26 252 29 268 25 286 50403 48162 29 241 24 251 24 250 27 266 26 287 48162 46135 30 229 27 244 26 246 25 262 25 282 46135 44285 29 229 30 239 27 238 25 255 25 273 44285 42586 33 231 30 240 24 238 23 253 23 257 42586 41018 34 234 29 241 27 238 28 244 24 246 41018 39567 33 238 30 244 31 236 29 235 30 254 39567 38216 32 240 31 246 35 237 32 245 33 235 38216 36919 31 241 29 247 37 239 41 250 34 228 36919 35605 29 243 26 247 36 240 48 249 35 232 35605 34244 27 244 26 248 34 245 50 249 36 236 34244 32841 27 244 30 251 35 253 47 247 36 238 32841 31383 28 242 36 255 40 256 38 252 34 239 31383 29859 28 242 38 255 42 260 35 255 30 236 29859 28272 27 247 36 253 40 261 35 259 25 234 28272 26625 28 256 33 251 35 261 29 258 20 242 26625 24922 27 259 30 254 30 259 23 252 18 246 24922 23168 24 256 27 254 25 255 18 251 17 243 23168 21353 18 253 22 254 20 248 15 246 17 238 21353 19469 14 255 16 253 15 240 16 236 18 239 19469 17553 13 256 13 247 13 236 17 232 19 242 17553 15706 14 253 12 242 12 235 17 234 19 244 15706 14023 15 252 13 243 13 239 17 236 19 245 14023 12520 16 252 14 245 14 242 16 238 18 245 12520 11177 16 252 14 243 14 241 15 239 17 239 11177 9975 15 250 14 239 13 239 14 242 14 238 9975 8897 13 247 13 235 11*236 12 246 12 245 8897 7933 12 243 12 232 9*236 10 252 9 255 7933 7076 10 238 11 229 8 241 7 265 5 281 7076 6312 9 232 10 227 6 247 5 296 6 325 6312 5623 8 228 9 227 5 260 5 332 10 342 5623 5009 7 230 8 224 4 271 7 347 11 352 5009 4494 7 238 4*202 4 281 7 349 11 004 4494 4096 8 234 3*154 4 290 7 351 11 014 4096 3821 8 204 3 151 4 295 7 350 9 008 3821 3654 8*173 2 147 4 297 7 351 5 347 3654 3558 6*169 2 144 3 297 7*351 3*327 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography