DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/29 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 40.2 - - 47.8 - - 45.2 - - 37.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 61 - - 101 - - -10 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 675 - - 1576 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4078 - - 4979 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 935 - - 2003 - - 3601 - - 1557 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 143 - - 224 - - 8 - - 7 W* B/S - - - 7 - - 22 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 2 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 167 - - 275 - - 348 - - 335 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - -7 - - 4 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2246 - - -3249 - - -4170 - - -975 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6324 - - 8228 - - 7727 - - 4531 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -10522 - - -9566 - - -9584 - - -3915 ODpotential blCL - - - 14600 - - 14545 - - 13141 - - 7471 blCL maxRH - - - 83 - - 83 - - 97 - - 89 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 40.2 - - 47.8 - - 45.2 - - 37.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 25.2 - - 24.3 - - 23.9 - - 29.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 39.5 - - 46.9 - - 45.7 - - 38.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 25.2 - - 24.2 - - 23.9 - - 29.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 61 - - 101 - - -10 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 675 - - 1576 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 30 - - 30 - - 86 - - 54 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97394 85 101 72 102 78 098 67 101 97394 90170 68 104 67 104 76 101 73 099 90170 84526 52 102 45 105 71 099 74 103 84526 79781 42 094 38 105 53 098 55 097 79781 75662 33 089 28 088 37 088 37 094 75662 72003 26 085 16 066 26 066 27 078 72003 68683 20 060 16 082 13 034 24 052 68683 65632 19 033 19 059 10 030 22 035 65632 62807 23 016 18 019 14 004 14 027 62807 60065 22 357 20 358 20 356 21 026 60065 57200 22 354 22 345 27 346 25 002 57200 54241 26 344 24 340 34 344 28 357 54241 51439 33 343 30 341 39 336 33 343 51439 48943 41 338 36 334 34 332 33 348 48943 46725 35 322 36 346 39 349 42 355 46725 44724 45 342 47 345 52 348 56 358 44724 42899 53 338 57 349 63 355 67 348 42899 41224 53 337 79 359 88 001 73 354 41224 39678 61 348 105 360 105 354 92 000 39678 38245 72 353 106 354 97 346 107 359 38245 36903 76 354 96 351 92 351 105 356 36903 35613 78 354 93 351 102 359 103 357 35613 34314 76 352 90 351 118 001 110 000 34314 32977 72 350 86 348 120 358 110 357 32977 31602 71 349 85 347 104 354 105 352 31602 30171 69 348 84 347 92 347 102 347 30171 28676 64 344 80 343 86 341 104 351 28676 27120 55 336 72 336 83 338 101 354 27120 25506 48 325 65 326 79 336 92 346 25506 23841 48 316 61 317 74 329 94 340 23841 22126 49 317 59 311 69 322 91 337 22126 20359 39 319 54 309 64 314 83 333 20359 18535 27 302 48 305 60 311 75 326 18535 16698 24 295 42 303 55 314 64 319 16698 14943 19 279 37 304 47 320 52 318 14943 13351 17 254 32 298 39 321 42 322 13351 11931 16 242 26 286 34 317 31 323 11931 10663 15 231 21 277 30 311 25 320 10663 9530 14 230 17 275 26 303 22 313 9530 8520 15 234 14 277 22 296 21 309 8520 7621 15 232 12 279 16 287 20 308 7621 6824 15 230 11 275 11 281 20 308 6824 6115 14 225 9 263 9 285 18 309 6115 5475 12 220 6*248 8 298 16 315 5475 4905 9 213 3*248 7 324 14 328 4905 4426 7*198 2 269 9 344 13 344 4426 4056 5*174 2 284 9 348 11 352 4056 3801 4 164 2 293 9 348 8 346 3801 3645 3 163 2 298 8*347 6 341 3645 3556 3 161 2 302 6*348 4*335 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography