DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 12/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.0 - - 47.2 - - 55.2 - - 51.8 - - 47.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - -6 - - 20 - - -9 - - -37 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 1192 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3557 - - 4595 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1224 - - 2012 - - 3432 - - 3831 - - 1156 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 31 - - 122 - - 7 - - 12 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 7 - - 14 - - 4 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 122 - - 176 - - 245 - - 192 - - 168 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -5 - - -2 - - -3 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -518 - - -1261 - - -2585 - - -2806 - - -689 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4076 - - 4819 - - 7180 - - 6363 - - 4246 sfcLCL ODpotential -6720 - - -5806 - - -5384 - - -6325 - - -4470 ODpotential blCL 10277 - - 9363 - - 9979 - - 9882 - - 8027 blCL maxRH 82 - - 77 - - 96 - - 85 - - 87 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.0 - - 47.2 - - 55.2 - - 51.8 - - 47.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.7 - - 38.5 - - 36.2 - - 36.3 - - 41.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 46.0 - - 47.5 - - 55.0 - - 53.7 - - 49.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 37.1 - - 37.7 - - 35.9 - - 36.1 - - 41.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - -6 - - 20 - - -9 - - -37 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 1192 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 27 - - 10 - - 84 - - 42 - - 47 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96524 36 033 21 032 23 036 29 032 22 032 96524 89560 21 358 21 026 13 030 23 003 17 019 89560 84116 18 330 18 358 17 001 14 352 11 344 84116 79534 19 309 16 341 22 344 16 341 12 324 79534 75533 13 314 13 333 17 308 23 312 17 312 75533 71973 24 316 13 344 14 311 17 335 20 324 71973 68729 24 284 22 287 21 286 23 304 26 298 68729 65744 16 303 16 287 22 265 26 279 24 273 65744 62987 27 314 26 319 18 315 16 306 14 285 62987 60315 49 288 43 306 30 301 14 287 35 286 60315 57514 61 284 61 288 54 287 47 275 53 275 57514 54620 76 284 72 286 65 286 66 283 63 284 54620 51866 80 283 81 285 76 284 84 286 77 288 51866 49380 80 289 90 283 83 274 92 284 86 282 49380 47138 97 292 98 285 88 280 107 283 96 282 47138 45093 114 287 112 287 112 287 112 282 105 283 45093 43222 113 281 117 285 121 287 108 284 109 282 43222 41501 99 285 114 287 113 290 112 288 112 285 41501 39909 104 295 114 292 118 293 124 291 123 288 39909 38431 123 294 119 290 130 293 135 289 133 287 38431 37060 127 289 123 285 134 290 125 284 129 283 37060 35760 124 285 128 286 116 286 102 278 119 277 35760 34461 123 282 125 287 103 281 93 275 106 269 34461 33129 122 282 111 284 107 277 95 273 85 260 33129 31765 121 283 104 280 106 274 97 274 84 261 31765 30351 115 284 100 279 103 275 95 277 85 266 30351 28876 97 287 85 283 100 279 93 282 81 273 28876 27342 82 293 73 286 91 282 94 285 77 279 27342 25745 76 292 69 285 83 280 92 285 79 280 25745 24089 79 285 68 281 79 274 88 284 82 276 24089 22380 82 283 69 278 79 269 87 282 81 271 22380 20612 73 287 67 277 76 267 85 284 78 270 20612 18780 58 292 63 278 66 267 74 288 78 273 18780 16924 47 290 56 279 53 269 60 289 73 284 16924 15148 44 286 47 280 44 273 51 282 61 289 15148 13537 43 284 38 282 41 275 48 272 50 284 13537 12103 42 283 33 284 43 275 50 264 48 270 12103 10821 42 281 30 285 46 273 51 261 49 259 10821 9673 42 277 30 282 48 270 51 262 50 257 9673 8644 43 272 31 277 46 267 49 264 50 255 8644 7726 44 266 34 270 41 264 47 265 51 252 7726 6910 45 262 36 264 34 260 42 264 50 249 6910 6182 43 260 35 258 28 256 37 261 48 245 6182 5525 40 258 32 252 24 253 31 256 45 240 5525 4941 34 256 27 245 20*250 25 250 40 235 4941 4449 25 254 21 236 17*247 20 245 32 230 4449 4070 15 250 15 221 15 245 16 239 23 221 4070 3808 6 237 11 196 13 244 11 229 15 200 3808 3648 3*152 9*183 12 243 8*218 12 182 3648 3557 5*122 7*176 10 242 4*192 8*168 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography