DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/17 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0954z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.7 - - 61.0 - - 64.0 - - 58.8 - - 55.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 95 - - 126 - - 9 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2223 - - 2791 - - 436 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 4189 - - 4810 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5626 - - 6194 - - 3839 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 239 - - 1167 - - 1237 - - 1214 - - 817 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 247 - - 296 - - 82 - - 27 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 5 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 9 - - 10 - - 7 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 306 - - 331 - - 333 - - 243 - - 135 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 7 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 2 - - 5 - - 10 - - -2 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1089 - - -1722 - - -1125 - - -435 - - -120 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4646 - - 7348 - - 7320 - - 4274 - - 3678 sfcLCL ODpotential -9053 - - -6364 - - -5184 - - -3536 - - -3464 ODpotential blCL 12610 - - 11990 - - 11378 - - 7375 - - 7022 blCL maxRH 78 - - 100 - - 100 - - 95 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 380 - - 380 - - 940 - - 140 - - 50 CAPE Temp@2m 48.7 - - 61.0 - - 64.0 - - 58.8 - - 55.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.9 - - 41.2 - - 44.3 - - 52.2 - - 51.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.5 - - 60.1 - - 63.0 - - 58.6 - - 56.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.8 - - 41.1 - - 43.5 - - 51.0 - - 50.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 95 - - 126 - - 9 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2223 - - 2791 - - 436 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 13 - - 101 - - 102 - - 81 - - 92 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 9 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99071 9 166 12 236 7 333 6 325 7 287 99071 91682 9 217 15 227 14 268 14 298 6 315 91682 85956 12 245 11 239 14 229 17 265 14 289 85956 81181 14 252 13 252 16 249 19 258 15 276 81181 77052 12 245 16 249 19 259 17 261 14 271 77052 73392 12 270 13 249 16 242 19 264 16 279 73392 70074 16 269 10 256 12 228 19 260 17 276 70074 67027 14 267 13 258 12 234 17 248 16 264 67027 64211 14 257 12 250 15 239 16 247 16 254 64211 61481 15 246 12 248 15 246 17 249 17 248 61481 58627 15 229 13 232 14 253 17 249 16 251 58627 55657 11 223 12 214 16 237 14 255 16 256 55657 52822 11 213 9 226 12 213 13 264 10 293 52822 50275 12 161 12 211 8 255 6 261 6 300 50275 47991 13 107 10 180 6 282 3 004 6 025 47991 45917 9 062 11 106 5 202 7 344 16 015 45917 44015 6 059 15 093 7 155 7 351 18 007 44015 42256 12 119 11 075 6 113 10 035 12 043 42256 40621 16 138 8 106 7 115 11 026 24 041 40621 39099 19 127 14 100 12 112 8 031 31 027 39099 37679 16 087 18 077 17 087 13 053 29 023 37679 36329 10 077 14 072 17 068 20 052 26 027 36329 34990 17 149 15 097 18 059 23 053 36 041 34990 33631 34 153 20 091 24 055 31 072 45 040 33631 32245 45 150 16 119 25 055 34 055 45 036 32245 30811 39 144 21 141 29 061 32 038 44 035 30811 29315 37 139 23 134 30 069 31 027 41 041 29315 27758 35 133 23 121 27 076 31 024 35 044 27758 26138 32 128 24 110 24 081 28 026 28 047 26138 24459 29 124 27 105 23 083 20 048 21 042 24459 22724 25 124 28 099 25 082 18 067 16 037 22724 20931 21 128 27 092 25 072 22 053 13 036 20931 19073 19 125 24 078 25 059 32 041 17 045 19073 17184 20 116 23 072 25 056 36 042 23 042 17184 15370 22 107 23 069 26 057 37 042 30 032 15370 13722 20 090 25 066 25 060 36 046 33 019 13722 12258 21 059 24 068 22 074 33 052 31 009 12258 10952 23 052 22 066 18 089 25 050 27 003 10952 9785 22 059 21 060 15 078 15 026 23 355 9785 8742 23 061 20 054 15 043 14 355 19 352 8742 7808 24 061 19 051 17 027 16 338 16 355 7808 6976 25 058 15 043 15 011 17 331 12 010 6976 6233 23 053 9*013 14*353 17 326 10 034 6233 5563 18 041 10*335 13*343 15 321 11 057 5563 4966 14 009 10 332 12 337 12 311 12 075 4966 4465 16 342 10 331 10 331 10 284 11 092 4465 4079 17 329 9 331 9 326 9*252 11 114 4079 3812 14 321 9 330 8 323 8*245 11 126 3812 3650 10*315 8 329 8 321 8 243 9*132 3650 3558 4*306 7 329 7 321 6 241 6*135 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography