DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/25 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 30.0 - - 42.8 - - 51.5 - - 47.4 - - 42.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -19 - - 29 - - 89 - - -1 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 1819 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 3728 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3556 - - 5222 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 258 - - 935 - - 1758 - - 3369 - - 1952 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 68 - - 226 - - 6 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 4 - - 8 - - 2 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 155 - - 148 - - 250 - - 275 - - 186 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -3 - - -2 - - 1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -7005 - - -8143 - - -7618 - - -5243 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 10562 - - 13366 - - 11176 - - 8799 sfcLCL ODpotential -7593 - - -16887 - - -16944 - - -16371 - - -14582 ODpotential blCL 11149 - - 20443 - - 22166 - - 19928 - - 18138 blCL maxRH 100 - - 95 - - 97 - - 100 - - 101 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 20 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 30.0 - - 42.8 - - 51.5 - - 47.4 - - 42.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.4 - - 9.6 - - 5.4 - - 11.3 - - 17.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 31.7 - - 42.4 - - 50.5 - - 48.8 - - 45.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.7 - - 9.6 - - 5.2 - - 11.1 - - 17.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -19 - - 29 - - 89 - - -1 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 1819 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 78 - - 88 - - 101 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96674 47 086 46 082 39 084 40 088 34 087 96674 89528 31 084 27 085 27 084 23 084 27 075 89528 83966 19 077 19 093 12 090 11 092 12 060 83966 79335 10 055 13 079 9 090 4 105 7 046 79335 75316 9 064 8 081 5 088 4 036 4 045 75316 71742 8 349 7 024 3 018 6 349 7 043 71742 68488 3 042 5 009 5 291 13 300 15 325 68488 65497 11 306 11 320 12 318 11 309 16 296 65497 62730 6 304 13 302 15 310 15 334 12 312 62730 60036 13 340 16 302 22 305 26 316 23 321 60036 57223 29 322 23 301 28 295 35 297 33 310 57223 54318 41 310 27 304 30 299 33 292 31 300 54318 51558 43 306 32 307 34 303 32 300 34 301 51558 49076 45 301 38 308 38 306 37 302 36 294 49076 46862 49 306 48 311 39 309 47 311 58 306 46862 44882 52 305 61 306 60 306 66 303 67 299 44882 43077 50 305 66 297 74 292 79 290 69 300 43077 41430 57 321 68 305 66 288 81 284 89 294 41430 39931 74 326 70 312 72 297 86 284 102 287 39931 38538 77 322 72 312 70 293 88 287 99 283 38538 37222 74 320 73 308 72 293 87 293 97 281 37222 35947 76 314 76 308 77 292 84 292 90 281 35947 34654 81 309 79 306 78 293 82 289 87 282 34654 33314 81 305 78 303 78 294 79 290 96 286 33314 31935 79 301 74 301 78 293 76 294 104 298 31935 30503 75 298 70 300 78 293 74 296 108 303 30503 29011 73 296 69 300 75 293 69 296 100 307 29011 27461 75 296 70 301 73 294 64 295 79 312 27461 25851 75 296 69 301 66 297 60 294 63 305 25851 24179 72 296 66 301 58 303 58 294 58 291 24179 22454 67 297 60 302 53 305 56 294 56 282 22454 20672 56 295 47 306 52 301 53 294 54 281 20672 18825 45 288 43 308 47 296 49 293 51 281 18825 16950 39 282 41 302 38 291 46 292 46 282 16950 15150 34 292 38 294 33 289 42 289 39 285 15150 13517 32 309 36 287 32 285 37 282 33 286 13517 12065 31 317 33 278 29 280 33 275 30 287 12065 10773 31 319 27 267 26 275 32 272 30 285 10773 9622 30 315 21 257 23 269 30 270 31 281 9622 8594 30 308 16 250 22 266 29 268 31 275 8594 7678 29 303 14 248 21 265 27 265 30 268 7678 6866 26 297 13 247 20 264 23 263 29 261 6866 6145 22 287 14 246 18 262 19 260 26 253 6145 5496 19 273 14 244 14*258 16 257 23 243 5496 4919 17 253 13 239 10*251 12 254 18 234 4919 4436 16 236 10 229 9 249 9 255 14 230 4436 4062 12 219 6 194 8 250 7 259 10 227 4062 3804 8 188 6 156 7 251 5 269 7 218 3804 3647 8*162 5 151 7 251 3*276 5 204 3647 3556 6*155 4*148 6 251 2*275 3*186 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography