DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/07 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.3 - - 60.9 - - 70.3 - - 64.4 - - 53.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -27 - - 47 - - 101 - - -11 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 476 - - 3481 - - 155 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 5129 - - 3542 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3879 - - 6884 - - 3558 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 80 - - 1497 - - 2029 - - 5789 - - 70 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 116 - - 292 - - 0 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 6 - - 16 - - 5 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 137 - - 218 - - 221 - - 224 - - 139 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -3 - - -4 - - -2 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4151 - - -7753 - - -6547 - - -8166 - - -5904 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7708 - - 11633 - - 13431 - - 11724 - - 9462 sfcLCL ODpotential -15939 - - -14491 - - -11659 - - -14389 - - -14962 ODpotential blCL 19496 - - 18370 - - 18543 - - 17947 - - 18520 blCL maxRH 64 - - 77 - - 85 - - 80 - - 86 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 39.3 - - 60.9 - - 70.3 - - 64.4 - - 53.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 18.9 - - 23.0 - - 23.8 - - 25.7 - - 24.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.5 - - 60.4 - - 69.3 - - 67.3 - - 57.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 19.0 - - 22.9 - - 23.6 - - 25.5 - - 24.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -27 - - 47 - - 101 - - -11 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 476 - - 3481 - - 155 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 9 - - 41 - - 20 - - 44 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95776 23 323 30 288 34 297 38 308 36 294 95776 88963 22 311 17 312 18 299 21 294 23 312 88963 83616 19 296 12 320 14 282 22 270 16 303 83616 79105 10 290 8 311 9 276 9 277 8 312 79105 75182 3 253 12 257 14 283 9 290 11 282 75182 71705 1 147 9 230 24 247 9 251 8 275 71705 68536 9 312 6 238 17 232 14 261 11 308 68536 65602 17 269 8 266 12 245 27 256 22 258 65602 62894 18 246 17 264 22 258 29 247 22 237 62894 60256 20 246 30 262 26 249 24 235 23 245 60256 57471 33 248 34 262 28 252 30 250 42 249 57471 54572 40 262 42 269 42 254 54 250 61 247 54572 51813 54 264 51 262 56 253 65 248 69 248 51813 49347 56 258 56 258 67 260 70 252 71 248 49347 47163 62 265 70 264 77 264 70 259 68 253 47163 45203 76 268 79 266 84 266 85 266 83 262 45203 43422 78 269 81 268 83 261 86 256 97 256 43422 41784 79 272 78 268 72 256 72 246 93 247 41784 40266 80 271 68 271 64 258 66 252 84 247 40266 38848 75 273 65 278 67 263 78 258 82 249 38848 37516 65 278 68 280 67 263 76 256 82 250 37516 36232 57 280 67 276 65 263 72 254 81 250 36232 34933 53 278 60 270 64 263 69 252 80 250 34933 33593 52 279 55 265 62 261 65 250 79 251 33593 32215 55 280 55 264 60 256 64 248 77 252 32215 30785 56 280 57 266 59 254 64 249 75 250 30785 29292 52 279 55 265 57 257 64 251 73 246 29292 27739 47 278 51 264 56 260 61 253 72 244 27739 26124 43 279 48 263 53 257 59 254 69 243 26124 24452 40 279 44 262 49 251 56 250 63 242 24452 22726 40 276 41 258 46 245 55 243 60 242 22726 20939 39 270 38 251 45 239 55 238 62 241 20939 19083 36 262 37 242 45 235 55 237 63 241 19083 17193 32 252 36 233 45 232 53 235 62 239 17193 15375 28 240 34 226 44 229 50 232 60 237 15375 13721 26 232 32 224 42 227 48 230 57 234 13721 12250 24 225 31 227 39 228 46 231 54 233 12250 10941 22 221 29 233 37 230 42 232 51 232 10941 9771 21 219 29 238 35 234 36 232 48 231 9771 8727 22 218 29 242 32 235 29 230 44 230 8727 7796 25 218 30 242 26 231 23 228 39 229 7796 6968 27 216 31 238 20*224 21 227 34 230 6968 6230 28 212 30 233 18*221 19 228 29 230 6230 5564 28 208 26 231 17 220 18 228 24 229 5564 4969 27 203 20 231 17 220 16 229 18 225 4969 4468 24 197 14 228 16 221 15 230 13 212 4468 4081 21 187 10*223 15 221 12 229 9 187 4081 3814 17 172 7*219 14 222 10 229 9 157 3814 3650 12*158 6 218 13 222 7 227 9*144 3650 3558 6*137 5 217 11 223 5*224 7*139 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography