DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/10 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 32.1 - - 43.2 - - 52.5 - - 48.6 - - 37.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -28 - - -1 - - 101 - - -6 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1719 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 3827 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 5122 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 107 - - 934 - - 1319 - - 2085 - - 333 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 24 - - 231 - - 0 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 5 - - 12 - - 6 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 129 - - 138 - - 225 - - 198 - - 142 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -3 - - 6 - - -4 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3158 - - -5397 - - -5816 - - -6167 - - -3441 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6715 - - 8954 - - 10938 - - 9725 - - 6998 sfcLCL ODpotential -13338 - - -12458 - - -11119 - - -12560 - - -12060 ODpotential blCL 16894 - - 16015 - - 16241 - - 16117 - - 15616 blCL maxRH 85 - - 84 - - 79 - - 78 - - 80 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 32.1 - - 43.2 - - 52.5 - - 48.6 - - 37.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 16.2 - - 17.4 - - 17.5 - - 19.1 - - 20.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 36.5 - - 43.3 - - 51.5 - - 49.2 - - 41.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 15.7 - - 16.5 - - 17.0 - - 18.8 - - 20.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -28 - - -1 - - 101 - - -6 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1719 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 39 - - 35 - - 15 - - 12 - - 21 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96034 26 357 26 359 23 007 37 012 27 024 96034 89185 28 002 19 004 21 006 27 011 27 017 89185 83761 26 358 17 357 22 354 22 021 21 017 83761 79224 18 006 15 359 16 348 20 003 19 013 79224 75297 15 014 16 351 16 343 18 349 16 006 75297 71790 15 003 13 350 11 334 17 343 15 343 71790 68582 16 346 11 344 11 318 10 321 12 342 68582 65614 15 334 11 343 14 324 15 319 17 332 65614 62848 21 322 16 313 23 298 21 301 21 315 62848 60160 19 320 16 305 19 292 25 293 24 290 60160 57359 33 311 23 301 25 291 27 282 28 282 57359 54449 35 284 27 289 34 277 33 270 29 285 54449 51670 26 285 32 277 36 269 42 278 37 286 51670 49183 31 291 39 273 50 275 45 278 39 281 49183 46963 41 294 47 277 53 272 48 276 41 284 46963 44955 51 283 56 279 49 267 54 271 58 281 44955 43132 42 267 52 262 49 268 56 268 59 276 43132 41476 42 271 47 255 61 273 63 269 58 276 41476 39964 45 276 57 266 80 270 67 272 64 273 39964 38565 45 278 66 269 83 267 66 270 66 269 38565 37251 44 279 63 270 73 266 58 269 59 267 37251 35984 37 275 55 267 65 271 49 276 50 265 35984 34702 35 267 49 266 56 276 51 282 44 272 34702 33378 38 267 48 266 47 277 50 278 45 283 33378 32014 42 273 48 262 48 269 44 274 48 286 32014 30596 45 278 48 259 53 265 42 272 40 279 30596 29115 44 276 46 261 51 263 43 271 32 269 29115 27571 35 267 41 269 43 258 39 266 28 259 27571 25966 22 258 40 275 28 267 32 261 29 261 25966 24300 24 265 40 268 26 290 23 261 30 259 24300 22575 35 265 38 262 30 297 21 273 25 258 22575 20788 39 261 37 257 34 280 20 276 20 253 20788 18938 31 253 35 253 34 265 27 275 20 258 18938 17063 22 239 27 245 32 253 31 265 22 267 17063 15259 20 230 19 225 26 245 29 256 24 264 15259 13617 18 219 15 201 20 238 25 249 22 257 13617 12155 15 210 13 201 17 231 20 247 19 253 12155 10850 13 206 13 207 15 232 16 250 17 253 10850 9683 12 207 13 211 14 234 11 255 14 252 9683 8641 14 210 15 214 13 238 8 259 11 247 8641 7713 16 211 18 216 14 238 8 261 8 244 7713 6892 19 210 21 218 15 234 10 253 6 252 6892 6163 22 210 24 220 16 230 13 243 9 252 6163 5507 24 211 25 222 16*227 15 234 14 242 5507 4924 25 213 23 224 14*225 15 223 18 230 4924 4437 22 211 17 220 13 225 13 213 18 217 4437 4062 17 197 10 203 12 225 11 205 14 200 4062 3803 13 172 7 167 11 226 9 201 11 175 3803 3646 10*150 6*149 10 226 8*199 9 156 3646 3556 6*129 5*138 9 227 6*198 6*142 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography