DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/12 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.0 - - 70.8 - - 83.3 - - 86.3 - - 80.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 97 - - 335 - - 496 - - 322 - - 9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1129 - - 2401 - - 4575 - - 6371 - - 1864 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 4909 - - 6711 - - 7963 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 4532 - - 5804 - - 7978 - - 9774 - - 5267 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 965 - - 1109 - - 4381 - - 5249 - - 4834 Hgt.Variab. W* 198 - - 385 - - 544 - - 526 - - 107 W* B/S 30 - - 31 - - 23 - - 9 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 11 - - 14 BL Wind Direction 342 - - 071 - - 283 - - 318 - - 351 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 3 - - 16 - - 14 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -7 - - -11 - - 20 - - 17 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1336 - - -2994 - - -4086 - - -3392 - - -6435 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5868 - - 8799 - - 12065 - - 13167 - - 11703 sfcLCL ODpotential -8524 - - -7573 - - -5750 - - -4463 - - -8970 ODpotential blCL 13056 - - 13377 - - 13728 - - 14237 - - 14237 blCL maxRH 97 - - 90 - - 74 - - 72 - - 74 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 30 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 61.0 - - 70.8 - - 83.3 - - 86.3 - - 80.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 47.6 - - 44.6 - - 42.5 - - 40.6 - - 41.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.9 - - 68.6 - - 80.3 - - 84.0 - - 79.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.5 - - 44.5 - - 42.4 - - 40.5 - - 41.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 97 - - 335 - - 496 - - 322 - - 9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1129 - - 2401 - - 4575 - - 6371 - - 1864 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 87 - - 62 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99725 34 115 27 111 29 095 24 103 30 099 99725 92170 27 103 24 109 22 108 18 110 19 085 92170 86358 25 104 17 120 17 115 18 104 18 090 86358 81531 24 112 18 123 16 132 14 099 19 108 81531 77370 15 108 9 114 13 118 14 110 17 095 77370 73687 8 115 10 134 10 130 11 130 8 108 73687 70366 14 161 11 141 5 132 14 139 9 133 70366 67329 11 162 11 166 11 216 6 157 8 167 67329 64510 4 213 11 202 17 198 5 189 5 159 64510 61772 23 214 19 244 18 211 16 218 11 196 61772 58935 23 215 23 220 20 217 23 229 19 215 58935 56016 37 228 39 218 37 231 27 233 20 225 56016 53227 44 229 51 220 55 222 43 232 40 240 53227 50732 65 229 62 225 64 213 62 219 60 227 50732 48516 68 229 65 230 62 217 66 215 59 221 48516 46497 78 230 76 238 75 237 74 230 66 230 46497 44637 95 227 94 231 93 232 92 230 85 229 44637 42911 105 223 105 224 99 224 94 225 96 226 42911 41296 108 222 107 223 103 222 94 223 95 223 41296 39787 102 225 104 223 101 224 100 225 95 222 39787 38379 97 227 98 223 96 223 98 225 94 223 38379 37034 93 226 92 222 91 223 93 223 93 219 37034 35683 92 225 89 223 85 222 92 221 93 214 35683 34292 93 224 89 223 84 220 91 220 93 214 34292 32859 87 225 88 222 83 221 87 221 88 218 32859 31373 79 223 85 224 81 224 84 224 82 222 31373 29826 75 220 80 225 78 226 81 228 75 228 29826 28223 72 219 73 223 73 226 76 229 71 230 28223 26564 69 219 68 223 67 227 69 230 65 232 26564 24852 66 218 63 226 62 230 63 233 58 234 24852 23092 60 218 61 228 59 233 58 236 53 237 23092 21274 55 220 59 227 56 232 53 234 48 235 21274 19398 51 223 55 228 55 231 48 230 44 232 19398 17499 48 226 49 233 52 230 42 226 40 230 17499 15672 43 227 41 231 47 226 33 220 36 226 15672 14003 39 226 40 224 42 221 24 218 30 220 14003 12509 36 227 41 222 35 220 20 223 24 219 12509 11173 32 231 42 225 28 220 17 233 17 224 11173 9975 28 236 37 230 22 222 14*249 12 237 9975 8900 22 237 28 234 17*225 12*265 9 255 8900 7940 14 232 19 229 12*230 11 284 8 285 7940 7085 9 211 10 213 8 239 11 304 8 316 7085 6322 6 180 4*167 5 258 11 323 11 336 6322 5633 3 098 3*117 4 313 12 332 13*345 5633 5018 3*057 2 084 5 331 13 336 14*348 5018 4501 2*036 2 070 5 338 13 339 14 350 4501 4101 1 339 2 055 6 343 13 340 14 351 4101 3824 1 325 3 048 6 344 13 341 14 352 3824 3656 1 320 2 045 6 345 12 341 13 353 3656 3559 1 320 2 042 6 346 11 341 10 353 3559 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography