DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 12/05 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.4 - - 47.5 - - 50.3 - - 47.9 - - 41.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - -17 - - -16 - - -16 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 208 - - 2027 - - 2726 - - 2185 - - 1442 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 26 - - 37 - - 18 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 6 - - 11 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 207 - - 224 - - 252 - - 222 - - 043 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -3 - - -2 - - -2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1 - - -280 - - -1059 - - -457 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3557 - - 3837 - - 4616 - - 4014 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -4922 - - -2713 - - -3719 - - -4028 - - -3078 ODpotential blCL 8479 - - 6270 - - 7276 - - 7585 - - 6635 blCL maxRH 100 - - 99 - - 97 - - 84 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.4 - - 47.5 - - 50.3 - - 47.9 - - 41.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.2 - - 43.1 - - 42.4 - - 42.6 - - 37.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 45.5 - - 48.6 - - 50.9 - - 50.1 - - 46.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.6 - - 42.5 - - 41.7 - - 41.6 - - 40.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - -17 - - -16 - - -16 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 99 - - 97 - - 89 - - 35 - - 15 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96830 51 094 51 091 61 085 58 088 49 086 96830 89645 40 078 40 085 39 076 39 072 38 076 89645 84088 30 064 27 086 20 067 26 040 28 058 84088 79454 26 056 25 058 20 037 22 021 27 043 79454 75468 15 036 19 033 22 038 20 028 25 028 75468 71941 9 064 13 030 24 008 23 009 21 015 71941 68726 13 356 17 350 19 001 18 357 15 007 68726 65748 12 341 12 334 24 006 16 349 19 336 65748 62997 18 345 24 305 30 318 28 314 24 324 62997 60368 25 333 22 302 30 311 19 323 16 335 60368 57592 31 323 33 328 31 317 23 338 31 308 57592 54674 49 322 51 316 47 313 53 309 64 300 54674 51911 56 316 55 310 56 310 68 304 74 299 51911 49452 55 321 54 313 58 312 72 306 77 300 49452 47255 60 324 59 315 63 316 75 309 78 302 47255 45258 68 320 59 316 70 319 79 315 79 309 45258 43423 73 316 64 322 81 324 87 322 89 315 43423 41730 76 319 81 327 96 325 98 323 102 314 41730 40165 82 327 104 327 103 323 104 320 109 309 40165 38712 96 331 115 331 101 324 106 317 108 307 38712 37355 113 334 125 335 104 327 103 317 103 310 37355 36050 137 340 128 334 109 328 101 320 102 314 36050 34728 146 341 127 333 107 332 101 323 105 316 34728 33363 138 338 124 331 104 333 104 322 108 317 33363 31960 129 335 117 330 106 328 106 320 111 315 31960 30508 124 334 108 330 105 326 105 319 111 314 30508 28998 116 333 94 331 102 325 104 320 110 313 28998 27431 106 332 81 328 95 324 104 321 108 313 27431 25806 97 333 81 324 86 322 101 319 104 313 25806 24129 91 335 81 322 79 319 94 317 100 314 24129 22404 83 338 80 319 74 316 85 316 94 316 22404 20624 75 341 77 317 69 312 79 316 85 316 20624 18785 68 342 70 316 64 309 77 314 78 315 18785 16921 63 343 59 314 59 309 75 310 76 311 16921 15132 56 342 45 310 58 310 72 307 76 309 15132 13507 48 336 35 306 58 315 67 306 74 308 13507 12062 44 334 33 305 53 320 63 304 68 306 12062 10775 43 333 33 302 48 319 60 300 62 304 10775 9629 42 329 35 300 46 313 57 297 58 300 9629 8606 39 323 38 298 47 303 53 298 55 294 8606 7695 37 315 40 294 47 293 52 297 54 289 7695 6886 36 307 40 288 46 282 49 293 52 286 6886 6165 33 300 38 282 42 273 44 288 49 285 6165 5514 26 296 33 276 38 266 37 283 44 285 5514 4933 16 293 28 268 34 260 29 279 36 286 4933 4445 10 282 23 258 29 256 22 275 27 291 4445 4067 8 254 20 250 25 254 15 266 18 299 4067 3807 8 237 15 242 20 253 11 255 10 313 3807 3648 7*226 12*236 17*252 8*242 6*331 3648 3557 5*207 6*224 11*252 4*222 3*043 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography