DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/02 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 2149z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 29.1 - - 48.5 - - 58.5 - - 54.8 - - 43.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -35 - - 52 - - 146 - - -15 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 760 - - 2909 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 4953 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 4163 - - 6312 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 79 - - 1102 - - 1393 - - 3840 - - 442 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 141 - - 311 - - 9 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 8 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 154 - - 170 - - 172 - - 164 - - 179 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -5 - - -4 - - -4 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1180 - - -4894 - - -5725 - - -7484 - - -3896 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4737 - - 9058 - - 12038 - - 11041 - - 7453 sfcLCL ODpotential -14875 - - -14298 - - -12661 - - -14988 - - -12923 ODpotential blCL 18431 - - 18461 - - 18973 - - 18545 - - 16480 blCL maxRH 79 - - 83 - - 88 - - 85 - - 86 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 29.1 - - 48.5 - - 58.5 - - 54.8 - - 43.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.4 - - 21.7 - - 18.4 - - 19.3 - - 24.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 34.3 - - 47.9 - - 57.2 - - 56.0 - - 48.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.9 - - 21.6 - - 18.2 - - 19.1 - - 24.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -35 - - 52 - - 146 - - -15 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 760 - - 2909 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 15 - - 34 - - 52 - - 40 - - 42 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96468 8 319 20 318 16 314 21 336 18 318 96468 89592 5 073 6 333 9 347 12 002 3 348 89592 84185 14 106 2 233 9 009 8 063 6 088 84185 79637 8 068 9 159 5 261 1 054 6 048 79637 75694 8 338 5 140 7 261 8 233 10 310 75694 72184 14 280 6 251 9 266 6 204 15 268 72184 68975 20 245 1 248 14 216 12 225 17 255 68975 65997 15 225 10 282 12 224 12 232 15 246 65997 63232 18 248 16 254 9 247 12 268 16 243 63232 60564 20 229 19 243 23 241 20 247 13 246 60564 57778 18 240 24 231 23 219 23 257 15 254 57778 54872 22 256 22 238 30 240 28 250 23 246 54872 52090 34 257 32 247 31 241 35 245 27 244 52090 49597 38 248 36 247 31 247 32 246 33 237 49597 47372 28 248 29 255 32 256 48 253 29 226 47372 45360 29 268 31 270 52 264 54 244 39 264 45360 43534 50 271 55 269 70 266 44 254 66 260 43534 41877 54 273 64 269 73 266 74 269 79 253 41877 40353 54 286 61 272 68 265 93 264 89 250 40353 38929 65 289 58 276 65 267 90 257 92 245 38929 37588 68 282 55 277 63 270 84 256 89 244 37588 36295 63 281 56 276 62 272 84 259 83 246 36295 34986 56 284 57 277 61 274 76 261 72 249 34986 33632 51 285 52 277 58 275 61 262 62 252 33632 32238 46 283 44 270 52 273 46 263 54 255 32238 30788 36 287 38 263 47 265 38 261 50 256 30788 29273 33 292 36 262 48 261 35 249 46 256 29273 27694 24 304 29 258 41 266 41 245 39 253 27694 26056 13 284 20 246 35 267 34 245 32 239 26056 24367 13 251 16 228 29 246 23 236 28 220 24367 22631 11 253 15 211 25 222 24 220 25 213 22631 20838 9 253 15 208 24 210 27 205 25 211 20838 18979 9 228 16 216 24 201 25 198 26 203 18979 17093 8 199 15 214 21 205 21 198 28 180 17093 15283 8 191 13 200 19 208 20 198 29 177 15283 13634 7 189 12 186 19 198 19 190 27 188 13634 12165 6 183 12 180 19 195 18 186 24 191 12165 10859 5 168 13 178 17 197 16 194 22 193 10859 9695 5 160 13 179 15 201 14 209 19 199 9695 8658 5 158 13 179 13 207 13 220 16 206 8658 7733 8 172 12 179 11 207 11 223 15 212 7733 6913 9 168 12 189 9*199 10 216 15 211 6913 6182 9 178 14 200 8*186 11 204 17 203 6182 5524 10 191 14 203 8 177 11 192 19 194 5524 4939 11 201 14 199 8 173 12 185 19 189 4939 4447 13 204 12*190 8 169 11 179 15 187 4447 4068 12 200 10*176 7 166 11 175 9 188 4068 3806 12 178 8 169 7 164 10 171 5 183 3806 3647 10*160 8 167 7 163 8 168 2*174 3647 3557 7*154 6 166 6 162 5*164 1*179 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography