DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 09/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.9 - - 71.2 - - 81.7 - - 84.3 - - 70.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 236 - - 323 - - 98 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2294 - - 5039 - - 6602 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 4721 - - 6918 - - 7366 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5697 - - 8442 - - 10005 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 223 - - 1112 - - 1556 - - 1687 - - 164 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 338 - - 487 - - 359 - - 7 W* B/S 1 - - 3 - - 9 - - 11 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 17 - - 9 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 118 - - 172 - - 178 - - 189 - - 122 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 4 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -9 - - -5 - - 3 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2623 - - -6358 - - -7698 - - -7034 - - -10304 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6181 - - 12055 - - 16140 - - 17040 - - 13863 sfcLCL ODpotential -15270 - - -14247 - - -14087 - - -12818 - - -18898 ODpotential blCL 18827 - - 19944 - - 22529 - - 22823 - - 22456 blCL maxRH 44 - - 46 - - 47 - - 38 - - 36 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.9 - - 71.2 - - 81.7 - - 84.3 - - 70.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 33.8 - - 31.1 - - 23.0 - - 21.4 - - 22.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.8 - - 69.5 - - 79.4 - - 83.1 - - 74.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.4 - - 30.8 - - 22.7 - - 21.2 - - 22.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 236 - - 323 - - 98 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2294 - - 5039 - - 6602 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98358 8 144 9 132 5 135 5 141 3 200 98358 91037 11 071 8 112 2 216 8 028 4 096 91037 85354 9 075 9 060 7 067 7 023 10 037 85354 80629 11 094 11 073 10 092 4 055 11 035 80629 76581 8 076 10 102 9 095 7 116 7 085 76581 73020 9 085 8 117 5 079 9 111 8 117 73020 69795 6 054 8 107 6 120 5 079 10 107 69795 66824 5 132 3 110 8 111 4 127 8 100 66824 64065 4 178 4 154 5 133 1 143 4 127 64065 61394 7 191 7 164 8 163 5 225 2 164 61394 58611 2 189 2 224 2 153 2 211 4 147 58611 55733 2 339 7 216 9 254 11 272 8 297 55733 53008 14 331 3 083 8 216 12 238 15 271 53008 50567 20 328 8 348 3 254 10 235 16 251 50567 48380 28 324 20 333 12 323 8 262 13 257 48380 46393 34 321 29 323 21 316 14 301 13 287 46393 44569 35 322 32 318 28 308 20 305 18 300 44569 42877 31 327 29 319 30 301 23 302 21 300 42877 41296 28 334 27 322 26 301 24 297 23 296 41296 39815 26 337 27 322 22 306 23 287 24 289 39815 38427 24 338 26 320 21 308 20 282 21 278 38427 37098 23 339 23 322 22 302 20 280 17 274 37098 35759 22 345 20 326 21 298 22 275 18 275 35759 34381 21 355 18 328 18 302 20 271 20 273 34381 32966 20 003 17 328 16 308 17 269 19 273 32966 31498 21 355 18 327 16 312 14 276 17 272 31498 29966 23 346 20 331 17 316 14 286 16 274 29966 28372 23 344 19 338 15 325 15 290 16 278 28372 26714 19 349 15 341 11 330 12 293 17 280 26714 24997 16 349 11 347 8 330 10 293 15 282 24997 23222 13 350 9 008 4 348 8 292 9 284 23222 21387 11 356 6 002 3 342 5 275 4 255 21387 19484 9 010 6 347 4 324 4 255 6 237 19484 17553 6 013 3 359 4 279 7 235 8 245 17553 15695 4 336 2 164 5 224 9 224 10 250 15695 14006 2 325 4 162 6 206 12 224 12 243 14006 12503 3 193 5 172 7 215 13 228 15 236 12503 11168 8 185 9 181 10 211 11*227 15 243 11168 9972 11 175 11 174 11 206 8*215 10 248 9972 8899 12 156 10 174 10*198 8 211 7 235 8899 7939 13 151 13 187 10*192 6 199 6 206 7939 7084 16 157 18 185 10 186 6 190 8 183 7084 6320 19 164 20*179 10 181 6 181 10 170 6320 5630 23 167 19*175 10 177 5 173 11 162 5630 5015 25 167 19 173 10 174 5 166 12 153 5015 4497 23 165 18 172 9 171 5 162 13 145 4497 4098 18 161 17 171 9 169 5 159 13 136 4098 3822 12 156 16 170 9 167 5 157 11 128 3822 3654 6*145 15 170 8 167 5 156 8 123 3654 3558 2*118 12 169 8 167 4 156 5*122 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography