DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/18 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 35.2 - - 42.8 - - 47.9 - - 44.3 - - 36.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 115 - - 209 - - -4 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1640 - - 2756 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3888 - - 5008 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 5043 - - 6159 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1040 - - 820 - - 1109 - - 2468 - - 1394 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 237 - - 344 - - 6 - - 6 W* B/S 0 - - 82 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 1 - - 6 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 216 - - 095 - - 355 - - 005 - - 337 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -2 - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - 378 - - -704 - - -4203 - - -556 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 4665 - - 6863 - - 7761 - - 4113 sfcLCL ODpotential -1501 - - -2734 - - -4015 - - -8699 - - -5471 ODpotential blCL 5057 - - 7777 - - 10174 - - 12256 - - 9027 blCL maxRH 100 - - 96 - - 76 - - 87 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 35.2 - - 42.8 - - 47.9 - - 44.3 - - 36.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 34.6 - - 34.8 - - 30.3 - - 22.9 - - 31.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 36.5 - - 41.8 - - 46.3 - - 44.3 - - 38.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.3 - - 34.9 - - 30.2 - - 22.9 - - 31.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 115 - - 209 - - -4 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1640 - - 2756 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 83 - - 3 - - 49 - - 92 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97049 19 088 23 078 22 071 20 084 7 078 97049 89933 24 095 19 083 17 093 20 073 18 079 89933 84399 23 092 16 081 13 086 21 072 20 074 84399 79802 19 076 14 078 8 067 18 072 16 079 79802 75809 15 063 10 088 7 058 9 070 15 061 75809 72249 15 047 7 088 8 044 8 082 10 032 72249 69013 12 025 7 097 5 026 8 030 7 056 69013 66019 7 023 8 051 4 080 8 350 10 044 66019 63235 10 017 13 018 11 056 9 318 16 008 63235 60547 14 354 14 009 12 023 2 257 16 354 60547 57751 16 353 16 009 22 004 11 016 16 006 57751 54851 16 003 26 349 30 343 31 356 25 354 54851 52085 36 357 27 355 33 351 40 348 34 346 52085 49595 42 356 40 357 34 004 47 348 46 352 49595 47355 49 354 47 354 45 354 51 343 45 356 47355 45307 47 350 49 347 49 344 46 347 57 360 45307 43421 43 351 47 346 50 344 47 348 56 357 43421 41676 44 353 47 349 53 346 55 347 63 350 41676 40054 45 349 49 347 55 345 61 343 78 343 40054 38536 41 345 47 342 54 342 57 341 79 336 38536 37113 32 342 42 336 48 339 50 341 72 336 37113 35756 25 343 36 331 42 332 47 343 69 348 35756 34401 24 344 30 327 37 324 48 344 64 352 34401 33015 24 339 26 323 32 323 41 342 63 360 33015 31604 22 325 21 313 26 312 32 335 66 003 31604 30153 16 320 21 302 23 289 23 310 60 359 30153 28650 14 337 21 285 28 267 22 280 49 351 28650 27098 8 352 9 265 22 253 26 267 40 341 27098 25496 8 341 6 243 22 258 26 264 30 333 25496 23848 8 315 11 273 19 255 26 257 20 307 23848 22156 8 293 12 266 18 259 24 265 21 287 22156 20414 9 277 12 263 18 258 22 279 23 272 20414 18608 8 283 11 262 15 249 22 271 23 280 18608 16774 7 294 9 250 16 242 21 250 21 293 16774 15011 9 267 9 240 19 246 22 254 19 293 15011 13408 14 255 13 244 20 253 20 263 17 286 13408 11981 19 257 17 254 18 259 15 265 14 276 11981 10708 21 262 18 260 16 264 12 265 9 270 10708 9569 20 266 16 261 14 266 9 260 6 271 9569 8551 17 267 13 262 11 267 9 248 4 287 8551 7643 12 269 11 268 9 271 7 246 3 318 7643 6838 8 270 9 279 5*283 4 269 2 021 6838 6123 4 230 7 290 4*345 3 337 2 056 6123 5480 3 155 4*274 5 352 5 011 2 033 5480 4908 3 086 1*131 6 356 7 012 5 003 4908 4428 3 081 1 106 6 357 7 009 8 002 4428 4057 3 108 1 092 7 358 8 007 9 005 4057 3801 2 187 1 071 7 360 7 006 8 359 3801 3645 4 217 0 071 7 358 7*005 5*349 3645 3556 3*216 1 066 6 359 5*005 3*337 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography