DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/23 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 38.1 - - 56.1 - - 65.4 - - 67.1 - - 53.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 142 - - 198 - - -5 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1286 - - 3705 - - 155 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3755 - - 5683 - - 3542 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 4689 - - 7108 - - 3558 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 75 - - 1649 - - 1826 - - 6896 - - 340 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 234 - - 373 - - 11 - - 1 W* B/S 0 - - 23 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 2 - - 6 - - 5 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 172 - - 188 - - 193 - - 250 - - 214 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -5 - - -5 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2007 - - -4194 - - -5814 - - -10477 - - -6823 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5564 - - 8883 - - 12923 - - 14036 - - 10382 sfcLCL ODpotential -12386 - - -10730 - - -11606 - - -16529 - - -15244 ODpotential blCL 15942 - - 15419 - - 18714 - - 20087 - - 18802 blCL maxRH 87 - - 82 - - 78 - - 77 - - 85 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 38.1 - - 56.1 - - 65.4 - - 67.1 - - 53.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 26.7 - - 29.9 - - 21.1 - - 17.9 - - 21.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 43.3 - - 54.8 - - 63.8 - - 67.5 - - 59.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 26.7 - - 29.8 - - 21.0 - - 17.8 - - 21.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 142 - - 198 - - -5 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1286 - - 3705 - - 155 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 48 - - 28 - - 13 - - 9 - - 39 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96650 14 338 13 312 19 301 21 314 21 319 96650 89551 10 337 6 285 15 299 17 328 18 326 89551 84046 10 327 8 356 9 275 17 302 12 348 84046 79443 10 302 13 342 4 010 14 279 15 303 79443 75467 11 284 14 292 9 345 4 281 14 275 75467 71953 10 301 10 286 16 297 8 335 8 308 71953 68749 10 280 5 306 18 285 13 299 12 308 68749 65793 13 282 5 313 12 279 17 289 17 271 65793 63057 17 287 15 301 15 291 19 274 17 280 63057 60401 19 289 22 291 18 283 20 280 21 280 60401 57628 20 288 21 294 22 291 24 286 25 287 57628 54755 24 299 23 299 27 297 31 286 32 277 54755 52019 28 300 23 305 26 297 28 281 30 266 52019 49554 32 300 23 304 22 294 27 286 29 277 49554 47339 31 289 24 298 20 301 30 290 44 291 47339 45357 22 295 26 301 33 306 40 298 47 287 45357 43572 29 313 37 298 44 297 47 295 47 286 43572 41950 36 320 38 296 43 294 44 288 31 280 41950 40455 41 323 37 301 39 294 41 296 27 287 40455 39046 41 322 37 303 35 299 41 300 28 282 39046 37711 39 322 37 304 35 303 34 292 32 282 37711 36420 36 321 35 306 35 300 26 283 35 280 36420 35111 33 320 34 309 31 295 24 281 37 277 35111 33755 32 318 33 314 24 293 25 283 33 272 33755 32358 30 315 32 316 20 298 27 289 28 265 32358 30907 27 314 31 312 24 301 27 295 30 261 30907 29394 26 317 28 303 29 297 28 300 34 267 29394 27822 26 320 25 293 32 294 32 299 38 280 27822 26189 23 313 23 292 31 294 35 293 38 291 26189 24501 22 304 23 301 32 292 37 288 35 290 24501 22761 23 303 23 311 30 294 36 289 36 284 22761 20964 24 313 23 319 30 302 35 290 37 278 20964 19104 26 331 22 325 30 307 32 288 35 273 19104 17215 26 331 21 322 28 304 27 287 32 265 17215 15397 22 315 20 315 24 296 23 282 29 259 15397 13741 21 294 19 309 19 287 21 269 27 254 13741 12266 19 279 17 301 17 280 22 261 25 253 12266 10953 17 271 16 288 15 267 21 254 23 247 10953 9782 16 273 16 283 14 254 18 242 20 235 9782 8737 16 280 16 287 13 242 14 233 18 226 8737 7803 14 290 15 292 10*223 13 233 16 226 7803 6973 12 303 12 297 8*205 11 236 13 233 6973 6233 8 322 8 304 8 200 11 239 10 238 6233 5564 5 349 2 311 6 192 10 241 7 236 5564 4968 3 336 2*188 6 189 9 243 3 219 4968 4466 5 277 2*189 5 186 8 246 0 288 4466 4080 8 246 2 190 5 181 8 247 2 005 4080 3813 7 211 2 187 4 181 7 249 1 352 3813 3650 7 178 2 184 4 180 7*249 1*256 3650 3558 6*172 1 183 4 180 5*250 2*214 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography