DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/11 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.9 - - 49.5 - - 58.1 - - 52.4 - - 44.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 28 - - 105 - - -3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 2171 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 4229 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3557 - - 5574 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 316 - - 1106 - - 1239 - - 2478 - - 309 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 67 - - 253 - - 15 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 11 - - 1 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 187 - - 212 - - 315 - - 053 - - 210 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - 2 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1589 - - -3175 - - -3313 - - -3613 - - -2915 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5146 - - 6732 - - 8887 - - 7170 - - 6472 sfcLCL ODpotential -12908 - - -11925 - - -9940 - - -11112 - - -13576 ODpotential blCL 16465 - - 15482 - - 15514 - - 14669 - - 17133 blCL maxRH 73 - - 64 - - 58 - - 63 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 39.9 - - 49.5 - - 58.1 - - 52.4 - - 44.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.3 - - 32.8 - - 31.8 - - 33.7 - - 28.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 45.5 - - 49.1 - - 57.0 - - 55.1 - - 49.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.4 - - 32.8 - - 31.7 - - 33.7 - - 28.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 28 - - 105 - - -3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 2171 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96378 27 016 23 005 27 005 22 005 27 012 96378 89456 22 014 23 014 16 017 18 017 22 034 89456 84015 23 019 24 019 18 022 23 013 24 020 84015 79433 24 004 17 038 9 030 19 008 17 019 79433 75439 17 001 19 018 13 003 28 009 24 014 75439 71910 17 006 13 016 16 358 26 358 25 004 71910 68734 19 349 15 358 14 019 17 353 16 026 68734 65787 20 352 16 332 13 342 15 355 32 013 65787 63038 27 332 28 336 28 329 33 328 38 349 63038 60398 33 325 31 333 32 325 35 324 39 329 60398 57670 33 326 30 329 30 328 35 325 37 318 57670 54846 41 316 40 318 39 326 41 325 38 323 54846 52146 48 305 46 307 46 314 51 320 47 323 52146 49708 46 305 46 302 49 304 56 313 51 317 49708 47520 48 311 48 305 52 307 56 306 51 315 47520 45541 54 308 54 301 55 306 59 304 54 309 45541 43741 57 300 53 299 53 294 62 290 55 300 43741 42092 58 298 51 303 46 295 59 285 51 293 42092 40567 57 297 52 303 46 301 53 287 48 292 40567 39138 57 296 53 298 48 300 49 295 47 290 39138 37789 56 297 53 296 48 295 49 301 43 288 37789 36488 54 296 52 293 49 292 48 302 40 291 36488 35168 52 294 51 291 49 290 46 303 41 296 35168 33804 51 292 52 291 49 290 42 307 39 299 33804 32402 51 292 51 293 46 292 40 311 34 300 32402 30951 50 294 50 294 42 297 39 310 32 301 30951 29439 49 294 48 295 41 300 38 307 32 301 29439 27868 47 293 47 294 42 301 38 306 32 299 27868 26237 46 293 45 294 41 300 38 307 35 300 26237 24551 44 293 43 294 41 298 38 305 39 306 24551 22807 43 295 42 295 41 297 39 304 41 307 22807 20999 43 297 42 296 40 293 39 300 39 304 20999 19120 44 297 42 297 39 290 38 295 38 302 19120 17213 45 297 41 299 38 290 36 292 37 303 17213 15381 44 298 39 301 35 293 33 293 35 304 15381 13719 42 298 36 301 33 295 30 296 32 303 13719 12240 38 297 32 299 29 296 27 298 28 302 12240 10923 34 295 29 298 25 295 24 298 24 298 10923 9747 30 294 25 297 22 294 20 297 20 293 9747 8699 27 294 22 296 19 295 16 293 15 287 8699 7765 25 296 19 294 15 294 11 286 11 280 7765 6937 23 299 15 293 10 291 8 264 10 267 6937 6201 20 300 11 290 6*288 7 242 10 253 6201 5538 15 299 8 283 4*300 3 212 8 246 5538 4948 10 287 7 262 4 308 2 119 4 240 4948 4453 11 266 11 249 4 315 4 082 1 271 4453 4071 12 249 11 237 4 323 4 067 2 010 4071 3808 9 240 8 223 4 324 5 060 2 007 3808 3649 5*226 6*215 4 326 5 055 0*332 3649 3557 3*187 5*212 4 328 4*053 1*210 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography