DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 02/28 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 36.1 - - 50.9 - - 58.9 - - 57.8 - - 48.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -23 - - 41 - - 179 - - 55 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 428 - - 3377 - - 2453 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 5399 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3831 - - 6780 - - 5856 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 114 - - 943 - - 2492 - - 4959 - - 2110 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 109 - - 351 - - 213 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 4 - - 10 - - 8 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 166 - - 164 - - 268 - - 323 - - 150 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -3 - - 4 - - 8 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2748 - - -4459 - - -2605 - - -3394 - - -511 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6305 - - 8290 - - 9386 - - 9250 - - 4068 sfcLCL ODpotential -12551 - - -10652 - - -5341 - - -4699 - - -3863 ODpotential blCL 16107 - - 14483 - - 12121 - - 10555 - - 7420 blCL maxRH 90 - - 80 - - 93 - - 97 - - 84 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 36.1 - - 50.9 - - 58.9 - - 57.8 - - 48.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.6 - - 27.3 - - 30.1 - - 29.6 - - 42.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 40.7 - - 50.4 - - 57.3 - - 57.1 - - 51.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.0 - - 26.7 - - 29.9 - - 29.4 - - 42.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -23 - - 41 - - 179 - - 55 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 428 - - 3377 - - 2453 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 60 - - 21 - - 73 - - 90 - - 36 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96570 10 095 6 085 8 155 2 325 2 127 96570 89390 4 122 5 272 6 289 8 342 3 305 89390 83801 14 013 5 008 13 285 14 300 13 341 83801 79172 20 331 16 325 18 321 20 333 17 318 79172 75217 25 333 23 324 26 320 28 329 23 315 75217 71731 35 322 29 321 31 315 34 318 28 315 71731 68568 41 309 35 318 34 311 35 314 32 310 68568 65640 44 303 38 315 35 306 36 305 34 300 65640 62910 41 305 41 305 38 306 40 301 36 301 62910 60251 44 291 44 301 47 296 46 297 42 303 60251 57455 43 292 49 295 48 293 47 289 50 296 57455 54536 49 291 50 287 51 292 49 289 52 289 54536 51742 59 283 52 283 56 283 55 288 50 290 51742 49225 62 278 57 281 56 276 58 282 52 293 49225 46970 71 270 63 273 55 279 56 280 59 292 46970 44931 69 264 58 266 58 274 60 280 68 285 44931 43076 62 268 53 268 55 270 61 279 67 280 43076 41375 64 264 57 263 55 268 66 276 68 278 41375 39804 60 258 56 248 54 262 67 270 73 275 39804 38348 50 256 43 237 40 247 62 267 76 274 38348 36993 41 250 35 230 23 216 53 267 75 275 36993 35701 46 245 33 228 21 205 37 263 74 275 35701 34403 45 244 27 226 20 209 28 255 72 274 34403 33067 43 248 20 231 16 212 20 244 70 275 33067 31694 41 253 20 235 15 217 15 228 60 273 31694 30272 36 259 22 233 17 224 18 213 45 263 30272 28794 33 265 27 235 22 230 20 224 28 244 28794 27261 35 264 31 233 25 234 20 244 21 232 27261 25673 37 259 30 227 27 235 24 252 24 241 25673 24034 31 252 22 223 26 238 28 260 23 245 24034 22343 13 261 13 211 28 242 32 259 23 244 22343 20594 7 336 13 190 31 243 34 257 25 242 20594 18780 5 293 17 189 31 234 34 259 26 247 18780 16939 12 251 15 203 22 208 33 261 28 252 16939 15168 15 254 12 221 12 145 30 261 28 270 15168 13557 10 262 8 226 8 127 22 251 25 284 13557 12122 6 262 6 210 11 173 11 208 16 289 12122 10838 3 246 7 201 12 195 8 161 5 263 10838 9687 2 211 8 201 9 223 6 164 5 159 9687 8656 2 167 8 202 10 254 4 197 6 152 8656 7735 4 156 7 208 11 261 4 242 5 158 7735 6917 5 161 8 217 11*261 4 266 3 166 6917 6189 6 167 10 221 11*263 5*296 0 183 6189 5531 7 166 12 222 10 265 7*314 1 345 5531 4945 5 177 13 221 10 267 8 322 1 258 4945 4453 6 214 10 216 10 269 8 324 4 218 4453 4072 9 218 7*196 10 271 8 325 5 197 4072 3809 10 198 5*167 10 272 8 326 4 179 3809 3649 8*172 4 164 9 272 8 326 5*157 3649 3557 6*166 4 162 8 273 7 327 4*150 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography