DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/14 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 48.7 - - 61.1 - - 53.7 - - 47.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 3 - - 77 - - -4 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 154 - - 2145 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3540 - - 3826 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3557 - - 5548 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 315 - - 1674 - - 2897 - - 216 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 31 - - 227 - - 0 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 13 - - 3 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 159 - - 247 - - 231 - - 149 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - -5 - - -2 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -7690 - - -7809 - - -7863 - - -7601 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11248 - - 13357 - - 11422 - - 11158 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -16823 - - -14036 - - -15371 - - -17972 ODpotential blCL - - - 20380 - - 19584 - - 18929 - - 21529 blCL maxRH - - - 56 - - 68 - - 88 - - 95 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 48.7 - - 61.1 - - 53.7 - - 47.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 12.9 - - 15.1 - - 16.7 - - 11.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 48.8 - - 60.2 - - 57.9 - - 52.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 12.8 - - 14.9 - - 16.5 - - 11.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 3 - - 77 - - -4 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 154 - - 2145 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 52 - - 79 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96907 58 066 60 076 56 070 48 076 96907 89950 47 065 45 073 42 065 33 073 89950 84487 42 078 37 086 32 076 27 076 84487 79868 35 098 28 094 24 094 20 092 79868 75836 25 095 15 110 15 112 11 107 75836 72270 11 085 6 129 5 145 2 353 72270 69052 2 039 7 219 5 262 3 304 69052 66099 17 317 14 291 10 299 13 319 66099 63372 18 305 16 300 18 295 15 290 63372 60731 14 299 12 314 11 291 10 288 60731 57954 24 288 24 304 21 304 26 286 57954 55072 34 286 37 294 34 296 37 293 55072 52327 39 284 45 289 44 295 38 291 52327 49844 39 275 42 275 43 280 32 285 49844 47602 33 263 36 275 37 268 37 291 47602 45554 32 280 37 286 36 279 42 289 45554 43675 41 286 43 284 42 281 42 292 43675 41952 47 281 47 282 36 288 48 292 41952 40374 47 272 41 278 38 301 48 292 40374 38917 40 261 33 279 43 304 60 298 38917 37564 31 265 31 288 46 299 72 297 37564 36270 30 280 33 289 43 290 73 297 36270 34964 33 287 34 280 41 287 62 300 34964 33615 32 285 35 271 42 289 45 295 33615 32225 30 283 38 267 42 289 43 281 32225 30782 31 281 42 264 38 283 48 277 30782 29277 33 275 43 262 35 274 47 276 29277 27711 30 262 43 257 35 265 44 272 27711 26084 30 243 43 253 37 259 42 268 26084 24398 34 249 43 254 40 256 39 266 24398 22659 33 259 37 250 43 252 36 266 22659 20864 31 254 33 240 42 250 33 265 20864 19007 31 243 35 242 39 251 31 258 19007 17126 31 243 34 247 36 253 31 251 17126 15318 29 247 33 252 34 255 30 251 15318 13674 28 252 31 254 33 255 30 253 13674 12208 27 255 29 255 31 255 31 255 12208 10901 26 257 27 254 29 254 30 257 10901 9732 26 259 26 254 27 252 30 258 9732 8687 26 261 25 254 25 249 29 258 8687 7755 26 262 24 254 23 246 29 257 7755 6929 27 262 23 253 22 243 28 255 6929 6195 27 260 21*250 21 239 28 253 6195 5534 27 255 18*247 19 236 26 250 5534 4946 24 245 14 246 17 234 21 245 4946 4453 18 232 13 246 14 235 15 239 4453 4072 11 213 12 247 11 237 9 225 4072 3809 9 180 11 248 8 236 6 189 3809 3649 8*165 11 249 5*237 6*160 3649 3557 6*159 9 249 3*231 5*149 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography