DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 07/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 67.6 - - 76.6 - - 85.0 - - 81.0 - - 71.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 101 - - 394 - - 526 - - 356 - - 39 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1129 - - 2947 - - 5621 - - 3017 - - 1385 BL Depth Hcrit 3542 - - 5370 - - 7570 - - 5394 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 4532 - - 6350 - - 9024 - - 6420 - - 4788 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 890 - - 1367 - - 4991 - - 2989 - - 1480 Hgt.Variab. W* 201 - - 436 - - 595 - - 425 - - 158 W* B/S 7 - - 28 - - 22 - - 5 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 5 - - 16 - - 16 BL Wind Direction 332 - - 315 - - 332 - - 347 - - 355 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 4 - - 17 - - 4 - - 6 Wind Shear Max.Converg 4 - - -4 - - 7 - - 9 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2121 - - -2154 - - -1903 - - -3484 - - -4177 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6653 - - 8504 - - 10928 - - 9905 - - 8965 sfcLCL ODpotential -7306 - - -5378 - - -2831 - - -5370 - - -9506 ODpotential blCL 11838 - - 11728 - - 11855 - - 11790 - - 14294 blCL maxRH 63 - - 62 - - 68 - - 69 - - 65 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 100 - - 260 - - 140 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 67.6 - - 76.6 - - 85.0 - - 81.0 - - 71.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 50.6 - - 51.3 - - 49.0 - - 49.6 - - 44.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 66.5 - - 74.1 - - 81.8 - - 78.6 - - 71.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 50.5 - - 51.2 - - 48.9 - - 49.5 - - 44.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 101 - - 394 - - 526 - - 356 - - 39 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1129 - - 2947 - - 5621 - - 3017 - - 1385 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 9 - - 9 - - 8 - - 8 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99829 40 106 35 106 36 104 36 115 28 106 99829 92272 34 095 30 106 28 098 34 101 30 106 92272 86430 29 102 28 109 22 115 24 084 30 099 86430 81575 26 101 22 099 22 125 18 096 28 092 81575 77398 24 096 18 106 22 110 14 116 20 089 77398 73716 17 108 16 109 18 099 16 117 16 098 73716 70391 20 103 16 130 15 110 13 116 18 123 70391 67349 8 105 15 130 12 124 15 116 17 137 67349 64543 6 120 13 119 12 148 8 134 12 125 64543 61824 2 176 6 145 12 161 13 172 11 163 61824 58979 6 171 12 186 9 163 11 158 12 169 58979 56030 16 216 17 209 16 228 10 215 13 212 56030 53218 23 199 26 193 30 216 23 218 22 211 53218 50682 30 228 23 204 32 215 30 225 28 218 50682 48401 45 226 39 228 45 228 40 229 37 226 48401 46335 49 221 55 225 59 225 53 229 49 225 46335 44455 54 223 60 221 61 223 61 227 56 225 44455 42731 60 227 59 223 62 224 66 224 63 228 42731 41137 66 230 63 227 64 225 67 222 69 227 41137 39652 70 231 69 228 66 225 68 221 72 224 39652 38263 72 230 71 227 67 224 70 222 75 222 38263 36932 73 229 72 227 68 223 72 223 77 220 36932 35590 73 229 71 227 70 223 74 224 74 220 35590 34208 70 229 72 228 70 225 74 226 72 219 34208 32787 63 229 72 229 67 226 72 225 72 219 32787 31313 57 227 69 231 65 225 69 223 70 220 31313 29778 55 225 62 231 64 223 67 221 66 220 29778 28185 53 223 55 227 61 222 63 220 61 220 28185 26533 50 224 50 223 56 220 56 217 58 217 26533 24825 49 223 47 220 50 216 52 214 55 213 24825 23065 49 220 45 217 47 214 50 211 51 210 23065 21248 48 217 45 214 47 214 47 212 47 210 21248 19368 44 211 43 211 48 212 44 214 42 210 19368 17459 42 204 44 209 48 209 43 213 38 209 17459 15623 41 200 43 208 43 206 38 206 37 206 15623 13950 35 197 40 206 31 200 28 187 35 194 13950 12457 29 193 35 205 25 200 24 182 31 183 12457 11120 24 194 31 204 21 200 19 185 25 183 11120 9922 21 197 26 205 14*203 12 190 14 189 9922 8850 19 201 22 205 8*208 6 196 6 213 8850 7893 17 187 17 208 4 227 1 277 3 241 7893 7042 16 153 9*217 3 304 8*353 6 015 7042 6285 14 128 3*255 7 344 10*353 11 015 6285 5603 6 118 3 304 8 347 15 349 15 003 5603 4996 4*344 3 320 9 349 17 347 17*357 4996 4486 6*337 3 325 10 349 18 346 17*356 4486 4093 5 331 3 328 10 349 18 345 17 355 4093 3820 5 330 3 330 10 349 17 345 16 355 3820 3654 5 329 3 330 10 349 16 345 15 355 3654 3558 5 327 3 330 9 349 14 344 11 356 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography