DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/10 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1002z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 43.8 - - 57.5 - - 65.3 - - 63.3 - - 51.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -32 - - 51 - - 108 - - -8 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1341 - - 2267 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 4310 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 4744 - - 5670 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 174 - - 1170 - - 1726 - - 3948 - - 205 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 169 - - 258 - - 8 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 12 - - 14 - - 4 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 153 - - 227 - - 227 - - 221 - - 167 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -3 - - 9 - - -2 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -2640 - - -4196 - - -5952 - - -3374 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3557 - - 7384 - - 9867 - - 9511 - - 6931 sfcLCL ODpotential -6406 - - -7315 - - -7483 - - -9831 - - -9883 ODpotential blCL 9963 - - 12059 - - 13153 - - 13389 - - 13440 blCL maxRH 79 - - 81 - - 90 - - 81 - - 80 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 43.8 - - 57.5 - - 65.3 - - 63.3 - - 51.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.7 - - 37.8 - - 34.6 - - 34.4 - - 34.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 46.3 - - 57.0 - - 64.2 - - 65.2 - - 56.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.7 - - 37.6 - - 34.5 - - 34.2 - - 34.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -32 - - 51 - - 108 - - -8 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1341 - - 2267 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 15 - - 22 - - 60 - - 25 - - 21 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96171 29 299 19 302 34 289 31 304 28 308 96171 89240 17 315 14 295 18 283 23 289 21 302 89240 83880 14 326 7 283 9 322 11 283 17 302 83880 79383 13 326 9 280 13 304 11 275 16 289 79383 75454 7 336 5 268 7 252 8 266 9 269 75454 71947 11 315 9 310 8 291 10 295 15 281 71947 68767 11 284 12 275 12 274 12 262 18 254 68767 65845 7 291 7 308 4 285 9 176 7 208 65845 63109 26 291 23 303 28 293 23 302 18 299 63109 60455 33 279 35 285 37 281 37 283 35 281 60455 57713 30 273 32 272 33 268 35 273 34 283 57713 54879 27 276 26 289 32 277 34 292 41 300 54879 52174 34 295 39 305 53 298 59 300 61 295 52174 49734 42 305 62 298 61 290 68 293 65 285 49734 47539 65 300 68 292 56 294 63 296 62 291 47539 45535 81 294 68 296 70 303 76 304 74 295 45535 43697 75 291 71 297 82 298 85 299 78 289 43697 42010 55 291 66 294 77 293 76 291 71 294 42010 40447 45 296 63 301 62 296 63 290 81 305 40447 38982 48 311 66 311 55 305 58 294 86 305 38982 37605 63 319 61 306 53 304 57 287 76 305 37605 36284 68 315 49 294 48 290 54 262 63 304 36284 34962 53 310 47 291 42 275 55 253 48 295 34962 33610 43 307 48 291 42 262 55 259 41 283 33610 32227 49 303 47 286 46 256 55 257 40 280 32227 30797 50 299 45 278 49 259 57 250 42 276 30797 29306 51 294 47 273 50 262 56 250 46 273 29306 27753 51 290 51 275 50 265 53 256 48 273 27753 26141 53 289 56 280 49 269 50 264 44 272 26141 24472 53 288 56 281 46 272 46 270 38 268 24472 22749 49 285 51 280 42 272 44 274 36 265 22749 20965 42 281 44 277 41 270 41 274 36 263 20965 19114 35 277 39 274 40 268 38 271 37 261 19114 17233 33 278 33 273 38 263 34 267 35 260 17233 15422 31 281 29 272 34 257 32 261 32 258 15422 13772 28 281 27 271 31 251 31 258 28 255 13772 12301 24 277 26 269 29 248 29 258 26 250 12301 10988 22 272 26 265 28 250 26 256 24 243 10988 9812 21 270 26 261 27 251 24 252 23 238 9812 8760 21 269 25 257 27 252 23 246 24 236 8760 7821 23 267 25 253 25 248 23 242 25 236 7821 6985 25 261 26 248 23 242 22 238 26 236 6985 6241 26 255 26 242 21*235 20 232 25 233 6241 5569 25 247 24 238 18*229 19 227 25 227 5569 4971 22 237 20*234 16 226 17 226 24 219 4971 4468 17 226 15*229 15 226 15 226 21 210 4468 4080 13 208 13 228 13 226 13 226 16 200 4080 3813 11 176 11 226 12 227 10 225 12 188 3813 3651 10*158 10 225 11 226 7*224 8 173 3651 3557 7*153 8 225 9 226 4*221 6*167 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography